tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post182499701769730129..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: BlameHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-40492253886212196872010-08-11T19:01:37.658-07:002010-08-11T19:01:37.658-07:00Hmm posted to wrong post, will copy and paste to t...Hmm posted to wrong post, will copy and paste to the correct one. Sorry.jsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14849732050452242351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-80572588109815155292010-08-11T18:58:27.021-07:002010-08-11T18:58:27.021-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.jsanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14849732050452242351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91131693015582499782010-08-10T18:08:06.222-07:002010-08-10T18:08:06.222-07:00Sweetrealtor,
Please see my reply in the next pos...Sweetrealtor,<br /><br />Please see my reply in the next post called "Market Setters"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-89523116315476109542010-08-10T13:20:16.020-07:002010-08-10T13:20:16.020-07:00Always interesting to read the banter that goes on...Always interesting to read the banter that goes on here. <br /><br />After two months of lots of work and zero deals, I have five deals in the works in the past two weeks. I hope this is a sign that things are picking up and all the doomsday chatter here will just be Chicken Little clucks. <br /><br />This reminds me of our last recession. Prices kept dropping and dropping - you could hardly give a property away. Those buyers who decided to purchase at greatly reduced prices were quickly rewarded with an upturn in the market. I think the buyers who choose to go into "wait and see" mode will regret it. This won't last forever! The market will recover.Sweetrealtorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11643504502534685881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-23438735141301273022010-08-09T11:29:49.820-07:002010-08-09T11:29:49.820-07:00Marko....were the properties that you and your fat...Marko....were the properties that you and your father built in the Langford area? Have any of those been start dates after March of this year? Just wondering.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-18245215781691445312010-08-09T10:59:54.626-07:002010-08-09T10:59:54.626-07:00Marko, do you have access to pending sales by addr...Marko, do you have access to pending sales by address? If you do could I ask you to look up an address for me.<br /><br />stinkymalinky(at)hotmail.comomchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-14592574370162113302010-08-09T10:58:19.486-07:002010-08-09T10:58:19.486-07:00I fully understand the long weekend was in there M...I fully understand the long weekend was in there Marko, but I would be surprised if we get to 400 sales. When DoubleAgent tried to project sales he was always lowering his projections as the month went along. From what I am seeing it may be because we are not looking a a linear trend. Sales appear to be dropping at an increasing rate. <br /><br />I also don't believe we will see only 269 sales this month.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-5912983352875496662010-08-09T10:43:52.161-07:002010-08-09T10:43:52.161-07:00"Simple math gives us a projected monthly sal..."Simple math gives us a projected monthly sales of 269 for the month based on the sale of only 78 units in the first 9 months."<br /><br />We started the month of with a long weekend, it will be more than 269 sales for the month; however, even if we get to 400 it isn't good. <br /><br />I have 7 properties on my watched list that I think are decent deals and not one has sold so far.....<br /><br />The numbers don't give sense of what is going on in some areas. For example, Langford - La Florence Lake, only one property has sold of the last 60 listed!Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-40177019151799138082010-08-09T10:37:03.596-07:002010-08-09T10:37:03.596-07:00Was it Mohican than was working on a model which s...Was it Mohican than was working on a model which showed price change correlated to months of inventory?<br /><br />What kind of price changes can we expect from 16 months of inventory?Robert Reynolds - HMR Insurancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10939128478955272061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-65700921780374711252010-08-09T10:19:05.137-07:002010-08-09T10:19:05.137-07:00OMC,
I can see the VREB report for August. "...OMC,<br /><br />I can see the VREB report for August. "Sales levels are back to the normal levels of 1988. The return to a balanced market means this is a great time to buy."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-13910962035298616722010-08-09T10:07:45.443-07:002010-08-09T10:07:45.443-07:00OOF! the housing market hits the wall. Those #s ...<b>OOF!</b> the housing market hits the wall. Those #s are far worse than I would have imagined. Simple math gives us a projected monthly sales of 269 for the month based on the sale of only 78 units in the first 9 months. That makes for almost 16 months of inventory. It would be interesting to be able to break this down further into SFH etc.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-59163936246199117362010-08-09T09:52:31.838-07:002010-08-09T09:52:31.838-07:00Good morning all: Activity has really slowed and ...Good morning all: Activity has really slowed and is reflected in the stats:<br /><br />Here are my pcs stats for the past week of 2 Aug to 8 Aug.<br /><br />SFH<br /><br />Victoria, Vic West, Esquimalt, Oak Bay, Saanich East and Saanich West.<br />Minimum 2 Beds, 2 baths from $375K to $775K:<br /><br />NEW; 22<br />SOLD: 15<br />P/C: 22<br />O/M: 22<br /><br />A couple of the sold prices were:<br />4218 Carey 465K-384K down 81K<br />2741 The Rise 564K-510K down 54K<br /><br />Some Price Changes:<br />A521 Michigan 659K -589K down 70K<br />1337 Tolmie 869K -748K down 121K<br /><br /><br />Condo's (Apartments & townhouses)<br /><br />Victoria: Most areas not downtown<br />Esquimalt: All<br />Oak Bay: All<br />Saanich East: Most areas<br />Saanich West: Gorge, Tillicum & Interurban<br /><br />Price range: $260K to $625K<br />Minimum 2 beds<br /><br />NEW: 13<br />SOLD: 6<br />P/C: 22<br />O/M: 22<br /><br />SOLD: 202-1151 Oscar $260K-225K down 35K.<br /><br />P/C townhouse at 121-2345 Cedar Hill X Rd. $620K - $535K down 81K.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-29165114319414273112010-08-09T09:06:39.954-07:002010-08-09T09:06:39.954-07:00thanks for the stats, Marko. I am assuming they a...thanks for the stats, Marko. I am assuming they are in the form of:<br /><br />August 2010 to date, Aug 2009<br /><br />If so, this paints a picture of trouble in the fall. Dramatically decreased sales and relatively stable inventory.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22580713967929263132010-08-09T08:49:29.219-07:002010-08-09T08:49:29.219-07:00A sales to new listings ratio of 32%. Things are g...A sales to new listings ratio of 32%. Things are getting worse in August, quickly.HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-53578215709250530472010-08-09T08:41:20.446-07:002010-08-09T08:41:20.446-07:00Net Unconditional Sales: 78 764
New Listings: 240...Net Unconditional Sales: 78 764 <br />New Listings: 240 1,094 <br />Active Listings: 4,282 3,509Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-25786643403162055422010-08-08T11:49:26.904-07:002010-08-08T11:49:26.904-07:00Just checked my PCS account today. Reported sales ...Just checked my PCS account today. Reported sales were very low last week and these were all based on offers made in July with conditions lifted in August. The latest VREB report will make the buyers even more skittish.. I suspect August sales will be even worse than July.<br /><br />If you have to sell now you better price it below market or end up chasing the market down....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-71026555519371008942010-08-08T09:44:56.908-07:002010-08-08T09:44:56.908-07:00US Shiller Home Price Index Chart->
Chart
Ci...US Shiller Home Price Index Chart-> <br /><br /><a href="http://www.iaconoresearch.com/BlogImages/08-05_27b_case_shiller_indices.png" rel="nofollow">Chart</a><br /><br />Cities that had the biggest run-up had the biggest correction...how would this play out in Canada, and especially Victoria and Vancouver?Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-77974770848289662552010-08-08T09:05:55.529-07:002010-08-08T09:05:55.529-07:00The difference between list and sale price narrows...<i>The difference between list and sale price narrows (%) further when you move to townhouses and condos.</i><br /><br />So either, all the 1300 some realtors in Victoria are completely incompetent and can't negotiate.<br /><br />OR <br /><br />There isn't much room for negotiating when the market is going well, and that's about what you can expect.<br /><br />Hmm, now which scenario is more likely? Of course, for mr bravado marko, the first is the case...<br /><br /><i>Commission is based on making the deal happen, not making the best deal happen for the client. </i><br /><br />Indeed, and since you don't change that commission structure, there is exactly zero reason to believe that you will do it differently. How about you make your commission conditional on negotiating at least x% off the listed price? Now that would actually be putting your balls on the table instead of just talk.<br /><br /><i>I tell you, "listen, you can go to Trail Appliances, I know this great guy or you can buy them online</i><br /><br />Once again, everyone else is stupid and doesn't know these things? Only Marko knows about the internets.<br /><br /><i>Neighbourhood knowledge - Grew up in Fernwood, went to Oakland’s, Lansdowne Middle School, and graduate from Victoria High school.</i><br /><br />Ha. I grew up somewhere too, that doesn't mean I know anything relevant to selling real estate. Same with the rest, you've just described half the realtors in Victoria.Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-10203719006577314282010-08-08T07:55:18.705-07:002010-08-08T07:55:18.705-07:00Sorry for all of the deleted posts previous to my ...Sorry for all of the deleted posts previous to my post above... I was getting posting failed messages even though they were being added to the site...Mindsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16898125754772581488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91027940330539866222010-08-08T07:45:09.514-07:002010-08-08T07:45:09.514-07:00Hi All,
I am guessing that most of you have read ...Hi All,<br /><br />I am guessing that most of you have read this article:<br /><br />http://www.rabble.ca/news/2009/10/canadas-sub-prime-mortgage-time-bomb<br /><br />This information sure seems to make everything that has happened over the last few years easy to explain. First low interest rates create a huge value increase in our biggest assets (our homes) which creates a false economic boom. When interest rates stop going down, we have a 2007 crisis, and the start of a North American meltdown. Remember late 2007 in the stock markets and housing and their effect even in 'untouchable' Victoria here? <br /><br />But then, somehow, magically, Canada dodges the housing bullet and our markets rebound. For anyone following world housing assets and thinking critically, it was nothing short of shocking. Shocking that is, until you understand that in an 18 month period from the end of 2007 to June 2009, CMHC increased loan guarantees by 210% ($138B to $290B), and lent so much money out that the last years’ amount was greater than the sum of their entire 57 years of lending history combined.<br /><br />Oh, and while CMHC was throwing money at the housing market in record breaking piles (we will now guarantee the entire purchase price, zero down, and for longer than ever, 40 years), the banks didn't lend any new money or loosen any of their lending rates at all (banks aren't interested in speculative lending, and smartly stayed out of this lending only 0.01% more money from 2007-2009 than the previous year).<br /><br />Ok. Nice theory. But let’s look at what we know and see if we can validate the Interest/CMHC theory. What happened when they increased interest rates and tightened CMHC rules (this spring)? We get a housing market slowdown we haven't seen in a decade (and not just a 44% decrease here, but over 40% decrease in sales in Vancouver/Alberta/etc). Nothing else has changed that could have caused this, and we all know that HST doesn’t effect resale.<br /><br />It's pretty easy to understand the last two bubble cycles once you know where the entire rally came from. First Interest rates, then CMHC. Take the money out, sales stop.<br /><br />In my opinion we were duped into thinking that we were somehow being smarter or more fiscally responsible than our US neighbours. We were told in 2007 that we did not have a sub-prime problem, WHILE our government was firing up a sub-prime engine. Unfortunately, it looks like we have a sub-prime problem now.<br /><br />When you’re honest with yourself, the meteoric rise in housing prices just felt too good to be true, and unfortunately you know what they say about that.....Mindsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16898125754772581488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-23321466349935750992010-08-08T07:39:09.813-07:002010-08-08T07:39:09.813-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mindsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16898125754772581488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-87228847971089508692010-08-08T07:38:32.874-07:002010-08-08T07:38:32.874-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mindsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16898125754772581488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-32139281718194975502010-08-08T07:29:00.973-07:002010-08-08T07:29:00.973-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mindsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16898125754772581488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-65913190235300378702010-08-08T07:28:59.098-07:002010-08-08T07:28:59.098-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mindsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16898125754772581488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64989978887984727802010-08-08T07:28:53.291-07:002010-08-08T07:28:53.291-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mindsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16898125754772581488noreply@blogger.com