tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post30237464327874047..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Perfect Storm Brewing?HouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-83936544811631703812007-03-28T16:38:00.000-07:002007-03-28T16:38:00.000-07:00greg saidIt seems to me inventory is growing at a ...<B>greg said</B><BR/><BR/><I>It seems to me inventory is growing at a pace right now that will see higher levels than last year. </I><BR/><BR/>I made some forecasts of sales and listings for the balance of the year. You can find them on <A HREF="http://www.members.shaw.ca/needinbox/" REL="nofollow">my website</A><BR/><BR/>The spread between active listings and sales continues to grow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-70632874802749566462007-03-28T13:13:00.000-07:002007-03-28T13:13:00.000-07:00I'm calling this hurricane Greenspan.I'm calling this hurricane Greenspan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-89888072351354255422007-03-28T12:56:00.000-07:002007-03-28T12:56:00.000-07:00Not sure whether local conditions are really a goo...Not sure whether local conditions are really a good predictor of overall housing market trends. History seems to suggest that this thinking is a bit of "the tail wagging the dog". <BR/><BR/>The last two corrections/stagnation periods in the Victoria housing market (early 1980s/mid-1990s) definitely coincided with North American economic downturns.<BR/><BR/>I would say that property taxes have only a marginal impact on buying decisions, as most people look at the "point-of-sale" costs, which would also include needed repairs.<BR/><BR/>The bigger "perfect storm" brewing right now is the sub-prime crisis and its possible impact on the short-term money supply in the US. Defaulting mortgages, collapsing mortgage lenders all could have a chilling effect on broader money lending in the US and on consumption and investment. This is what happened after the US savings and loans collapse in the early 1990s. <BR/><BR/>If the US falls into recession, Canada will surely follow and likely China as well. Add to this the serious housing inaffordability and governments that will likely respond by tightening the purse strings (can anyone explain the economic theory that says you blow hundreds of millions on mega projects - read "Olympics" - during an economic expansion when output is already at its peak (?!?) leaving zero money to spend when the economy tanks?).<BR/><BR/>Then again, maybe the big sewage plant bill will be just more fuel for the coming hurricane...Lets call this one Allen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-44297508255881302582007-03-28T10:17:00.000-07:002007-03-28T10:17:00.000-07:00anonymous,Higher prices on lower volume usually in...anonymous,<BR/><BR/>Higher prices on lower volume usually indicates a top in the stock market.<BR/><BR/>Even if prices are increasing for a select group of houses that are selling, it is turning into a much riskier game for those planning to buy and flip on an expectation of 10-16% gains, if there is a greater chance of the house sitting and not selling!<BR/><BR/>Of course, there will be those who believe otherwise, and when the music stops, some of them will be without chairs.<BR/><BR/>Expect a number of housing gloom blogs to spring up at that point.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-48514529914764469702007-03-28T10:03:00.000-07:002007-03-28T10:03:00.000-07:00I wouldn't only look at the rate of listings but a...I wouldn't only look at the rate of listings but also at the rate of appreciation. If that goes from 17%-19% a year or two ago down to 6%-7% this spring than that might be the straw that broke the camel's back for the speculators to get out. Oh, then I guess it would be good to look at the rate of listings.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-50982843968565398432007-03-28T09:08:00.000-07:002007-03-28T09:08:00.000-07:00It seems to me inventory is growing at a pace righ...It seems to me inventory is growing at a pace right now that will see higher levels than last year. <BR/><BR/>Last year the highest levels of inventory were reached in October, and there was a steady increase before that during the summer - last May there were about 1200 single family homes listed in the VREB area, so like anonymous said, the March stats should give a likely trendline for the rest of the year.<BR/><BR/>At present there are about a thousand single family homes listed, so we shall see if inventory can grow by more than a couple of hundred in the next couple of months.<BR/><BR/>If inventory isn't increasing by at least that rate, I guess we can all hold off on our housing doom talk regarding prices until at least the summer....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8489760156951418912007-03-27T21:51:00.000-07:002007-03-27T21:51:00.000-07:00I can't wait for the March stats from the Victoria...I can't wait for the March stats from the Victoria Real Estate Board to come out. I think we are all going to be surprised...or maybe not. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-30616146974845739152007-03-27T20:36:00.000-07:002007-03-27T20:36:00.000-07:00Anyone tracking all the new hot sheet listings ? I...Anyone tracking all the new hot sheet listings ? It only gives you 50 on the list and I count a full 50 just looking for the first time today. This would be the highest one day amount I have tracked so far. This months numbers will be most interesting on the inventory side.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com