tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post3929525189554989062..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Monday market update: 4 days of the same?HouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger207125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64599082721257492832020-06-04T03:38:33.725-07:002020-06-04T03:38:33.725-07:00I guess, rates are going to touch higher limits. I...I guess, rates are going to touch higher limits. I am happy to get help from <a href="http://whistlerrealestateforsale.com" rel="nofollow">commercial real estate whistler bc</a>Thomas Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07546138894192107878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-39140453282340467622011-04-18T10:18:40.353-07:002011-04-18T10:18:40.353-07:00a couple of people have noted that market collapse...a couple of people have noted that market collapse (or at least correction) is inevitable because "this time it's different" -- based on the assertion that our recent run-up in prices is unprecedented. <br /><br />However, a look at the VREB single family house historic ave prices chart from 1967 to 2010 indicates that there certainly is precedent for the most recent run up.<br /><br />I believe that if you measure trough to peak the last 3 market surges for Victoria using the VREB data/graphs and going back to say 1972, you will find the latest run-up (from 1996 to 2010) is weaker (in terms of year over year percentage increase)then the run up to peaks hit in 1981 and 1994. To me, the latest surge in prices appears to be the "norm," if not slightly anemic compared to previous market runs. <br /><br />Maybe someone with a calculator can actually run the numbers for us.chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05500718839857449284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-40156312290116626212011-04-11T10:05:18.984-07:002011-04-11T10:05:18.984-07:00simple man,
I agree. 2011 is shaping up to be wor...simple man,<br /><br />I agree. 2011 is shaping up to be worse for sales than 2010, 2009 and 2008.<br /><br />Here is another graph from the archives....<br /><br /><a href="http://i41.tinypic.com/1567om1.png" rel="nofollow">Monthly sales April 2008 - April 2010</a><br /><br />So far 167 sales in 10 days. If we hit 600 for the month I will be surprised. This will be lower than last month and well below last year!! VREB and TC will be hard pressed to spin that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-19988522607944366132011-04-11T09:37:08.579-07:002011-04-11T09:37:08.579-07:00thanks JustWaiting - and lets all remember - last ...thanks JustWaiting - and lets all remember - last year was a bad year for real estate here. If this year is worse then is spells disaster for a large number of realtors.<br /><br />At least half of the realtors I know already have a second job to make ends meet.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-13645905581200046862011-04-11T09:34:01.856-07:002011-04-11T09:34:01.856-07:00Simple man,
Last night I said this spring looked ...Simple man,<br /><br />Last night I said this spring looked real bad for sellers and agents.<br /><br />I went back in the archives for this blog and found this graph by double agent...<br /><br /><a href="http://i41.tinypic.com/dc78k8.png" rel="nofollow">2010 weekly sales and listings</a><br /><br />Last year every week, starting in mid-February, had over 145 sales. This year VREB has been reporting much lower than this by around 20%.<br /><br />But VREB and their lapdog the TC have been pumping this as a "balance and stable" market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-35444541420848294102011-04-11T09:12:34.715-07:002011-04-11T09:12:34.715-07:00so, 120 sales last week.
379 new listings.
31....so, 120 sales last week. <br /><br />379 new listings.<br /><br />31.6% sales:new listings.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15946894345786974702011-04-11T08:51:06.140-07:002011-04-11T08:51:06.140-07:00Monday, April 11, 2011 8:00am:
MTD April
201...Monday, April 11, 2011 8:00am:<br /><br /> MTD April <br /> 2011 2010 <br />Net Unconditional Sales: 167 756 <br />New Listings: 514 1,783 <br />Active Listings: 4,103 4,229 <br /><br />Please Note<br /><br />•Left Column: stats so far this month<br />•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last yearMarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91128626050434779882011-04-11T08:42:23.042-07:002011-04-11T08:42:23.042-07:00Wow - over 200 comments.
Marko! Monday Mourning ...Wow - over 200 comments.<br /><br />Marko! Monday Mourning Update please.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-71465729290850323102011-04-11T00:44:04.279-07:002011-04-11T00:44:04.279-07:00Gotta love the West Wing!Gotta love the West Wing!Waitinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01783543528310522711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-12893766721597893602011-04-11T00:28:39.697-07:002011-04-11T00:28:39.697-07:00That's it folks, I give up! I change my mind. ...That's it folks, I give up! I change my mind. I think real estate in Canada is going to at least double once more people see this map. The land we thought we had here, well there's a lot less of it than you thought, and they ain't gonna make more.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVX-PrBRtTY&feature=youtube_gdata_player" rel="nofollow">3 min vid of map</a>SilverSurferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06625822446412095506noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15620949977151552882011-04-10T23:19:58.456-07:002011-04-10T23:19:58.456-07:00As soon as the Bank of Canada (BOC) overnight rate...As soon as the Bank of Canada (BOC) overnight rate gets adjusted, it will put increasing downwards pressure on the bottom end of the market. I gather that some of the higher risk mortgages are held by people with variable rate mortgages (VRM) - as for that past 10 years or so, VRM have typically been lower interest that the fixed rates. <br /><br />If the BOC overnight rate goes up - so do VRM. The market can only sustain what people can afford. Although the majority of analysts don't think so - this adjustment could happen as soon as Tuesday April 12th.DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-39936963647379155762011-04-10T23:03:32.041-07:002011-04-10T23:03:32.041-07:00Slow week for sure. Assuming no more sales pop up...Slow week for sure. Assuming no more sales pop up, I got 10 SFH sales under 550k, when the previous weeks have been 15, 14, 13.<br /><br />Surprisingly enough, in the 550 to 900k SFHs, the dropoff after the 18th was even more drastic. In the three weeks before March 18th we had 15, 22, and 29 sales. The 3 weeks after the 18th we have 12, 14, and 11. <br /><br />In the lower half of the market, the 18th appears to have triggered lower sale prices compared to assessments. In the higher end, it seems to have drastically cut sales. Anyone care to hypothesize or is this just a blip?Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-49807467006164668802011-04-10T22:18:23.396-07:002011-04-10T22:18:23.396-07:00Australia has a strong banking system like Canada ...Australia has a strong banking system like Canada and a housing boom that kept on rolling until recently. Now the party is over.<br /><br /><a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/australian-home-sales-sink-luxury-units.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29" rel="nofollow">Australian Home Sales Sink - Party Officially Over</a><br /><br /><i>Things are not looking too hot down under. Not only is the Australia housing collapse picking up steam, but Australian retailers are struggling mightily in spite of rising sales numbers.<br /><br />Australia is suffering from buyer exhaustion after the Australian government foolishly stimulated housing to stave off the last recession.<br /><br />Buyer exhaustion would have set in whether the Reserve Bank made that last rate hike or not. .<br /><br />Now what? Housing inventory is both huge and rising, few can afford homes, and those who can afford homes already have one (if not more).<br /><br /><b>Simply put, the pool of greater fools has run out.</b></i><br /><br />-----------<br /><br />Bubbles have popped in the US, UK, Spain, Ireland and now Australia. Who is next?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-59620458073721488432011-04-10T22:05:04.701-07:002011-04-10T22:05:04.701-07:00According to a local realtor I know tomorrows numb...According to a local realtor I know tomorrows numbers are going to be bad news for sellers and agents looking for a commission.<br /><br />Today the VREB database showed only 113 sales in the last seven days. This time of the year there should be at least 150 and in good years 175.<br /><br />New listings (including back on market) totalled 405 which is typical for the spring. <br /><br />Price changes are seen everywhere. About 190 in the last week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84881080426259586252011-04-10T21:01:29.649-07:002011-04-10T21:01:29.649-07:00Any guesses for tomorrow's numbers? Just for ...Any guesses for tomorrow's numbers? Just for fun!!Waitinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01783543528310522711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-73664399531503252932011-04-10T20:45:44.707-07:002011-04-10T20:45:44.707-07:00People who want to move here but cannot afford it ...People who want to move here but cannot afford it are called tourists ... ;-)DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-46578398482965312672011-04-10T20:12:49.252-07:002011-04-10T20:12:49.252-07:00Thanks Just Waiting.Thanks Just Waiting.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-39523254350603822982011-04-10T19:35:21.751-07:002011-04-10T19:35:21.751-07:00George Athanassakos is a finance professor and hol...George Athanassakos is a finance professor and holds the Ben Graham Chair in Value Investing at the Richard Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario.<br /><br />Here is what he wrote in the Globe and Mail about the future of Canadian real estate...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/signs-point-to-a-severe-housing-correction-in-canada/article1979229/" rel="nofollow">Signs point to a severe housing correction in Canada </a><br /><br /><i>I believe that Canada’s high house prices in relation to incomes, combined with record household debt levels and overinvestment in residential construction, will cause a severe correction in the real estate market.<br /><br />Home prices are simply way out of line, especially when viewed in relation to household income. The ratio of house prices to income has historically averaged about 3.5 in Canada. It now stands at about 5.5. It is difficult to see how income growth in the future can bring this ratio close to the historical average within any reasonable period – so it follows that house prices will have to decline.<br /><br />The current consensus is that Canada’s real estate market has achieved a “soft” landing and that prices will flat line but not decline substantially over the next several years. I disagree. <b>The housing market in Canada is already in bubble territory. </b> Average house prices have doubled in the last 10 years, while rents have risen by only about 30 per cent. <b>The ratio of house prices to rent is now higher in Canada than in any other developed country.</b><br /><br />An even more powerful indicator also points to a severe housing correction in Canada. Residential housing investment as a percentage of GDP was 6.48 per cent in 2009, down slightly from 6.76 per cent in 2008, after peaking at 7.13 per cent in 2007. The previous peaks were at 7.26 per cent in 1976 and 7.18 per cent in 1989 – and we know what happened to the housing market in Canada in the early 1980s and early 1990s. After residential housing investment as a percentage of GDP peaked in the previous two cycles, the housing market crashed within a few years.</i><br /><br />I can hear the bull response.... Victoria is different; everyone wants to move here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-20725108001768254252011-04-10T15:25:39.632-07:002011-04-10T15:25:39.632-07:00Another major benefit about those government (and ...Another major benefit about those government (and teachers') pensions is that the pensioners got to keep their medical/dental/drug/eye care coverage when retired. They do pay a bit fees, but these group plan fees are much much smaller than individual fees for those retirees without the pensions, for the same coverage.<br /><br />Note there is only 30% Canadians who have some types of DBP, and the percentage will only get lower as companies are trying to get out of them and move to DCPs (defined contribution plan). <br /><br />So for those are are with government jobs, you are very lucky. Stay put and support for tax increases and pray no benefit cut in the future.freedom_2008https://www.blogger.com/profile/16017963228192114898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-25201800350507694852011-04-10T13:48:28.933-07:002011-04-10T13:48:28.933-07:00@ Jennifer wrote: I suspect 25 years from now the...@ Jennifer wrote: <i> I suspect 25 years from now there will be a big division in society; those that have had these pensions and those that did not and put all their $ into houses instead of their RRSP’s and TFSA’s.</i><br /><br />I wholeheartedly agree ... My wife and I have resisted upgrading to "granite and stainless" so that we can [1] pay off our mortgage, and [2] save for retirement. A lot of friends and neighbours have great-looking homes, but with a huge debt load to pay off over the next 20 to 30 years.DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-42544533768676458322011-04-10T13:43:05.454-07:002011-04-10T13:43:05.454-07:00@ Leo S
Great chart! Thanks for tracking this inf...@ Leo S<br /><br />Great chart! Thanks for tracking this information ...DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-12955041868711456042011-04-10T10:51:34.803-07:002011-04-10T10:51:34.803-07:00Animal spirit, pensions are very not easy to under...Animal spirit, pensions are very not easy to understand but are an incredible benefit as they pay out a guaranteed amount regardless of market performance or how incompetence you are at investing. If you have a defined benefit pension plan consider yourself to be extremely fortunate. If you work for the Provincial or Federal Government and have that pension is based on your highest income years and is indexed once you retire you have won a mini lottery (literally). I suspect 25 years from now there will be a big division in society; those that have had these pensions and those that did not and put all their $ into houses instead of their RRSP’s and TFSA’s.<br /><br />To answer your question, I would include all payments towards your pension as retirement savings regardless if you or your employer paid them.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15702359943994782441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-38314362995363539242011-04-10T10:38:24.668-07:002011-04-10T10:38:24.668-07:00Sale Price/Assessment for SFHs under 550k. This ...<a href="http://i.imgur.com/umHtd.png" rel="nofollow">Sale Price/Assessment for SFHs under 550k.</a> This "blip" is going on for a while...Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-329427758792084172011-04-10T09:11:05.815-07:002011-04-10T09:11:05.815-07:00I do think Victoria indeed is special. So I don...<i>I do think Victoria indeed is special. So I don't think it's unreasonable to have a bit of a premium.</i><br /><br />What kind of premium? A premium of prices to rents? Victoria has the same interest rates as the rest of Canada, so why shouldn't rental yields be comparable?<br /><br />You think investors will always be able to sell for a higher price to make up for the low yield? What's that called?<br /><br />If you're talking a premium of rents AND prices (proportially) to incomes, Victoria has always had that.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64645363385374723212011-04-10T08:57:02.527-07:002011-04-10T08:57:02.527-07:00I see 4043 Copperfield Lane just sold (pending sal...I see 4043 Copperfield Lane just sold (pending sale) for 597k original asking price 619k. A new low price for this 2006 subdivision I recall most homes in this subdivisions have been selling 630k to 650k of late.Now my PCS account does not go back too far but does anyone know what these homes were selling for back in '06?Was it 500-550K?Granted they are strata so priced lower than a freehold property IMO.Not interested in buying here but I see it a my canary in a coal mine to chart price drops as each subsequent seller appears to be chasing down the market with price drops and sales.Watching and waitinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12520657033904834033noreply@blogger.com