tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post4289518455395602607..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: July sales volume suckedHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-76279362734852175672010-08-06T10:52:01.734-07:002010-08-06T10:52:01.734-07:00"Or simply very few new owner-occupiers for s...<i>"Or simply very few new owner-occupiers for some years"</i><br /><br />Perhaps but an unsustainable home ownership rate means distress for those who should never have owned in the first place, and part of the reason why prices can undershoot.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-83190628217546272432010-08-06T09:40:44.757-07:002010-08-06T09:40:44.757-07:00Recently we have been hearing from a number of rea...Recently we have been hearing from a number of real estate agents and clowns like Phil Soper of Royal Lepage that HST is a big factor in declining real estate sales. Take a look at these stats for July sales across Canada. (source: <a href="http://www.teamfisher.com/maybe-it-really-is-different-here/" rel="nofollow">here</a>)<br /><br /><b>July Sales YOY by City</b><br /> <br />Vancouver 45%<br />Victoria 44%<br />Calgary 42%<br />Edmonton 42%<br />Toronto 34%<br />Halifax 33%<br />Regina 28%<br />Ottawa 27%<br />Montreal 26%<br />Saskatoon 18%<br />Winnipeg 13%<br /><br />Look at the big drops in Calgary and Edmonton, a province with no HST! Even Regina and Saskatoon had drops and they are in a province that had the best economy during the recession and no HST.<br /><br />So why has demand dropped throughout Canada?<br /><br />- new mortgage rules affect 1st time buyers<br />- investors now have to put down 20% instead of 5%<br />- interest rates have risen (both fixed and variable) from record lows<br />- demand was brought forward for years and now the buyer pool is pretty shallow<br />- the affordability wall has been hit and there are only a few fools left who will buy<br />- the word is out that real estate is slowing down and buyers are moving to the sidelines<br />- buyer confidence is shaky and this years poor stock market performance has folks nervous<br /><br />Agents can live in denial and try to convince you that this is just a temporary setback but savvy buyers won't fall for this. The boom is over!!EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-23851777697679223072010-08-06T03:50:37.136-07:002010-08-06T03:50:37.136-07:00I think (the home ownership rate) reverting closer...<i>I think (the home ownership rate) reverting closer to its long term average is likely and that means a large portion of people selling or defaulting.</i><br /><br />Or simply very few new owner-occupiers for some years, and normal sales from owners going to investors, not owners.<br /><br />But under any scenario that spells DOOM for prices.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-42142002411891484872010-08-05T23:31:39.771-07:002010-08-05T23:31:39.771-07:00Okay guys...synopsis of the market for the day.......Okay guys...synopsis of the market for the day.....<br /><br />Two listings today I thought reflected a weaker market...<br /><br />$360,000<br />1546 Ryan Street - Fernwood, SFD - this home a teardown; however, this is the first time in a while that I have seen a home on a decent size lot below $400,000 in Fernwood. <br /><br />$449,000<br />2500 Foul Bay Road - SFD - 7000 sq/ft flat lot with rear lane access. Home has a suite. Looks updated and well kept inside. <br /><br />So far this month, 19 sold SFDs...average price 534k (being dragged down by no sales over 1 million so far). <br /><br />Marko, I will make a youtube Video tomorrow.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-50827830495138277102010-08-05T21:49:07.438-07:002010-08-05T21:49:07.438-07:00@Mr.4AM, it's worth considering how much more ...@Mr.4AM, it's worth considering how much more demand can be pulled from the future to support current prices. There was a massive exodus from renting into owning in 2009. I just don't see that many buyers being left to clear the market.<br /><br />The home ownership rate has increased way beyond what is sustainable. I think it reverting closer to its long term average is likely and that means a large portion of people selling or defaulting.<br /><br />Low rates are no free lunch. They mean low growth and high unemployment. It could actually be argued that BC's rates need to be lower, odd as that may sound.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-11890861523581880222010-08-05T19:51:43.918-07:002010-08-05T19:51:43.918-07:00Well guys, I'm probably about as excited as mo...Well guys, I'm probably about as excited as most of you. After watching this thing stay afloat for far longer than it should have (no thanks to government subsidies and unwarranted intervention), it's possible, *but not guaranteed* that this time is it - The beginning of a long price downward trend.<br /><br />However, having been surprised once with a longer than expected dead cat bounce, I must say I'm still not 100% convinced yet (I'm about 70%) that this thing won't bounce back again.<br /><br />While we appear to have plenty of coffin nails to put this thing to rest, the casket door (high, or extended trend of increasing mortgage interest rates) are still missing from the picture.<br /><br />Now, while one could argue that the US is still in a housing slump while interest rates are still at all time lows, the fact of the matter is that it was fast and continuously rising interest rates which played a significant part in their bubble burst.<br /><br />So what I'm saying is that while the Canadian government subsidies appear to be over, while affordability peaks have likely been tested more than once, and while at present much of the near term future buyers have been eaten up by last minute panic buying during pre-rule change and pre-HST implementation, there's still the possibility of:<br /><br />a) After a few months of downward pricing, affordability errodes far enough that the irrational buyers catergory who simply can barely afford to buy again do start buying again resulting in another potentially long dead cat bounce or price flattening as opposed to continuous price deterioration.<br /><br />b) North America (Canada/USA) have opted for the typical Keynes stimulus/prop-up the economy approach to dealing with the recession, and appear to be talking about more of the same (QE 2.0) if the economy threatens to double dip as it may still this year. This while, Europe has taken the opposite austerity approach and China the fake-the-numbers and pretend (and pray like hell) everything's under control. My point being, that if we (Canada) do the monkey-see-monkey-do/follow the USA down the keynesian debt hole, low interest rate extensions and even some kind of further government intervention to prevent a full blown RE crash is still very much within the realm of possibility.<br /><br />As such, until the proverbial fat lady sings, and the casket is fully closed from all sides (was she buried alive?), I'm not betting the entire farm (yet) that THIS IS FINALLY IT(!)<br /><br />Just playing devil's advocate.<br />Mr.4AMMr.4AMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06939742036749753862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-40117597428848207082010-08-05T19:42:35.753-07:002010-08-05T19:42:35.753-07:00c, you have a valid point. I guess we have to reme...c, you have a valid point. I guess we have to remember that house in Florida probably sold for $400K in 2006 at the peak of their bubble. My point is that if "The retirement capital of America" can crash then it can happen in Victoria too. A 500K home in Langford isn't too appealing to an outsider either.<br /><br />Locking in for 30 years is an option we don't have here either. If rates do go up we will be that much more exposed. <br />In Victoria $590/month gets you a bachelor in view towers next to the laudry room. I know where I would rather live!Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15206505328540811613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-16906150684039471162010-08-05T16:09:05.786-07:002010-08-05T16:09:05.786-07:00Phil,
The problem with that house (and it's l...Phil,<br /><br />The problem with that house (and it's location--check it out), is that it could well be worth zero dollars in a blink of an eye. Much like I expect someone could lose 100k seemingly overnight on a starter SFH in Victoria's housing market this fall. Point being, I see similar risks to buying into both options.<br /><br />Other than that, after looking at the pictures and the map, I would suggest that this house in particular is a walking advertisement for the merits of retiring to Victoria as compared to that part of Florida. <br /><br />Further, it is easy for me to imagine that 1000 people per day can be dead wrong about a thing--especially where good taste is involved.chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05500718839857449284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-46658957561243909172010-08-05T15:21:44.840-07:002010-08-05T15:21:44.840-07:00"So then WTF are people doing retiring to Vic..."So then WTF are people doing retiring to Vic and paying 600k for the same house???? "<br /><br />That is a GOOD question, a LOT of people is not longer considering to retire in Victoria, when they can keep their home in Alberta, Saskatchewan, etc. and buy cash a nice property in Florida, California, Texas, etc. Also a lot of foreigner investors (including myself) do not longer consider Victoria, nor Vancouver as an investment option.<br /><br />That is why these markets are starting to see a decline, which is just the beginning of what it comes. Remember that the ones that always loose are the ones that live and work there, no the investors as we can cash out our money and take it somewhere else.WiseInvestor70https://www.blogger.com/profile/08086635041630006514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-60823490373337161512010-08-05T13:32:36.786-07:002010-08-05T13:32:36.786-07:00What about the opportunity costs though?What about the opportunity costs though?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-48361788785225891612010-08-05T12:53:08.143-07:002010-08-05T12:53:08.143-07:00So then WTF are people doing retiring to Vic and p...So then WTF are people doing retiring to Vic and paying 600k for the same house????<br /><br />That really is the 6 million dollar question.<br /><br />Are Canadians really this stupid?<br /><br />Oh wait....this is the "best place on earth" LOLUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02135885959544346194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-30512948659409979282010-08-05T12:49:51.429-07:002010-08-05T12:49:51.429-07:00In the US you can lock in for 30 years... SO, this...In the US you can lock in for 30 years... SO, this 2006 home in Tampa Florida would set you back $590/month for the the length of the mortgage.<br /><br /> <a href="http://tampa.craigslist.org/hdo/reb/1882465006.html" rel="nofollow">Florida home</a><br /><br />1000 people retire to Florida EVERY DAY...Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15206505328540811613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-82586227931879193972010-08-05T12:14:15.204-07:002010-08-05T12:14:15.204-07:00We've bought some time, now enjoy the ride do...We've bought some time, now enjoy the ride downhill. They were claiming a 25% decline in prices 2 years ago, but we manage to increase prices by almost 20% in 2 years, so do the math, maybe 30, 40, 50 % decline ? when that happens, everyone gets scared and the result, well you have seen it in USA<br /><br /><a href="http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=04fe6225-ae78-4e70-84e0-6d340844ab01" rel="nofollow">Canada's housing bubble could soon burst: Merrill Lynch</a><br /><br />So far, USA still the best place on earth to buy RE at the current prices, awesome what you can get down there for you money, even cheaper than Panama or any other country in America.WiseInvestor70https://www.blogger.com/profile/08086635041630006514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-36833867005777715002010-08-05T09:51:41.841-07:002010-08-05T09:51:41.841-07:00Alright, where's Fred Carver now that we all n...Alright, where's Fred Carver now that we all need his calming voice to reassure the Bulls....?<br /><br />:-)kabloonahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13589241009488655847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-20069998413588640482010-08-05T06:28:02.854-07:002010-08-05T06:28:02.854-07:00Thought I'd add a few charts I've been upd...Thought I'd add a few charts I've been updating over the years covering the situation north of Victoria. I've used data from VIREB only, which is inadequate to tell the whole story. Still, the charts show:<br /><br />o lowest total number of July sales in the past ten years;<br /><br />o lowest total cost of July sales since 2004;<br /><br />o a trend that looks to continue;<br /><br />o median sales price has been fairly flat for several years.<br /><br />Nanaimo average price has been staying high but total number of sales is low, so it seems likely to be just higher-end sales. I wonder if people are bugging out of Vancouver and buying there due to the ferry and air links? <br /><br />Overall, it looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the right shoulder just about completed.<br /><br /><a href="http://i35.tinypic.com/903gc0.jpg" rel="nofollow">Average price</a><br /><br /><a href="http://i33.tinypic.com/jtkzg5.jpg" rel="nofollow">Number of sales</a><br /><br /><a href="http://i33.tinypic.com/25recnp.jpg" rel="nofollow">Total sales cost</a><br /><br /><a href="http://i34.tinypic.com/azbh9f.jpg" rel="nofollow">Median sales price</a>green_doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07277033908899475349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-88564124872035735202010-08-04T21:25:58.704-07:002010-08-04T21:25:58.704-07:00I did. I did. I posted on KIV. It's under t...I did. I did. I posted on KIV. It's under the subject Brenda N.<br /><br />I don't want to stir the pot or upset people but I did post. <br /><br />:-)<br /><br />S2Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-74470245664247740952010-08-04T21:19:46.518-07:002010-08-04T21:19:46.518-07:00Does the market really suck that bad or is it like...Does the market really suck that bad or is it like Tony says its the MSM's fault.<br /><br />Well, its actually worse. Because for single family homes 70 percent of all the sales are in the core municipalities. 20 percent are in the Westshore and only 10 percent are in the Saanich Peninsula.<br /><br />So if you are selling in the Westshore you're seeing about 10.5 months of inventory as opposed to 3.7 months in the core municipalities.<br /><br />The great asset devaluation has begun.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15696527399813064802010-08-04T19:57:17.233-07:002010-08-04T19:57:17.233-07:00Dropped by KIV tonight and not a single post on th...Dropped by KIV tonight and not a single post on the real estate downturn news. Maybe no one wants to stir the pot and upset the real estate believers.EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-37629485449831957362010-08-04T19:31:16.063-07:002010-08-04T19:31:16.063-07:00July has been a disaster with only 527 sales. In...July has been a disaster with only 527 sales. In August there has to be more than 517 sales or once again it will be the worst month for sales in the 2002-2010 period.<br /><br />My prediction - under 500 sales, stubbornly high inventory and lots more price reductions.<br /><br />BTW - I watched the A Channel report. Little in the way of stats, usual spinning realtor interviews and predictions that sales will go up in the fall. Take a look at the sales charts I posted earlier; sales don't go up in the fall, they keep dropping till Xmas.<br /><br />What happened to <b>Think</b> our bear cheerleader? No posts in a long time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-59053229291305947112010-08-04T16:30:28.050-07:002010-08-04T16:30:28.050-07:00Rhino, well, finding a condo amongst the horde of ...Rhino, well, finding a condo amongst the horde of unsold listings in Victoria right now is a bit of a needle in the haystack routine in the PCS right now... that agent should be commended for at least not re-listing it.HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-4604610764994121792010-08-04T16:02:43.176-07:002010-08-04T16:02:43.176-07:00They are just doing that so it gets bumped to the ...They are just doing that so it gets bumped to the top of everyone's PCS account. So amateur hourRhinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04594599019555787326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-2307160309107451712010-08-04T15:57:46.172-07:002010-08-04T15:57:46.172-07:00Desperate sellers will try anything to make a sale...Desperate sellers will try anything to make a sale, including dropping their price <a href="http://i35.tinypic.com/v4b5td.jpg" rel="nofollow">a whopping $300</a>. Word to the wise: when you're chasing the market down, and you're doing anything to grab attention for an offer, dropping your price by less than 100th of one percent isn't really all that effective. Just saying.HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22251847152496079232010-08-04T13:57:08.101-07:002010-08-04T13:57:08.101-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-83740206245997862282010-08-04T13:49:34.246-07:002010-08-04T13:49:34.246-07:00inflation<a href="http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/ragan_paper/inflation.html" rel="nofollow">inflation</a>Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03610949355592602680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91990371794876746132010-08-04T13:48:19.298-07:002010-08-04T13:48:19.298-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03610949355592602680noreply@blogger.com