tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post485055724238211852..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: It's MarchHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger251125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-79102138928956858782014-03-31T05:25:03.238-07:002014-03-31T05:25:03.238-07:00Nice report for the March. I hope it should be mor...Nice report for the March. I hope it should be more better for the April month.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.murrieta-propertymanagement.com/" rel="nofollow">Premier property management</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01993998181413782917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-7698335153696567092014-03-26T00:31:08.380-07:002014-03-26T00:31:08.380-07:00Vancouver have been the best place, that I have be...Vancouver have been the best place, that I have been in so far. I faced problem with roofing operation till the time I didn't find the best Roofers Vancouver. But know alls fine. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12620949262512039203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-14977442686039632462014-03-21T13:08:17.698-07:002014-03-21T13:08:17.698-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-68028332591445549182014-03-20T23:20:43.875-07:002014-03-20T23:20:43.875-07:00@ dasmo
"I was making a point info... Put mo...@ dasmo<br /><br />"I was making a point info... Put more simply, the rise in the vacancy rates has nothing to do with people leaving Victoria and everything to do with an increase in inventory."<br /><br />Are you talking about the vacancy rate of apartment buildings only, or are you including houses and condos?<br /><br />It would make a big difference.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-35146352065641484132014-03-20T23:19:16.105-07:002014-03-20T23:19:16.105-07:00@ dasmo
""constant (false) accusations....@ dasmo<br /><br />""constant (false) accusations." <br />As you would say... Please give proof..."<br /><br />You are the accuser. It is incumbent upon you to provide proof.<br />infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64942841715816374032014-03-20T23:15:28.653-07:002014-03-20T23:15:28.653-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-12001544209265343612014-03-20T23:12:32.785-07:002014-03-20T23:12:32.785-07:00@ caveat
"Given a net flow to CRD from other...@ caveat<br /><br />"Given a net flow to CRD from other provinces I would dispute your claim that "There is no evidence that buyers from Alberta or any other Canadian province have had a positive effect on house prices in Victoria."<br /><br />I'm correct. You are incorrect.<br /><br />Again, there is no evidence that buyers from Alberta or any other Canadian province have had a positive effect on house prices in Victoria.<br /><br />What you have provided is speculation, but no facts that relate to actual sales numbers, etc. <br /><br />I'm sure that Victorians also buy properties in Calgary and Edmonton. <br /><br />Victoria's market is a buyer's market, meaning that buyers have the advantage over sellers as there is a lot of inventory and not enough demand. Prices are falling as a result. <br /><br />Again, HAM is a thing of the past in Victoria. It would be difficult to argue that this will not result in less sales to out-of-town buyers. In terms of out-of-town buyers, the loss of HAM is important news.<br /><br />The whole Alberta sales thing has been drastically overused for decades by those who make their living by selling houses in Victoria. Sales have been in the tank since 2010. It's interesting that some of the regulars of this blog attempt to take attention away from Victoria's weak sales numbers and falling prices by constantly bringing it up. <br /><br />The increased talk on this blog about Alberta sales is a sure sign that Victoria's housing market is in serious trouble. <br />infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-75083363926700261562014-03-20T22:45:08.539-07:002014-03-20T22:45:08.539-07:00"constant (false) accusations."
As you ..."constant (false) accusations." <br />As you would say... Please give proof...dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-87461774496360035582014-03-20T22:44:14.022-07:002014-03-20T22:44:14.022-07:00I was making a point info... Put more simply, the ...I was making a point info... Put more simply, the rise in the vacancy rates has nothing to do with people leaving Victoria and everything to do with an increase in inventory.dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-9540400518485676022014-03-20T22:42:39.383-07:002014-03-20T22:42:39.383-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-62978750072297893392014-03-20T22:23:26.270-07:002014-03-20T22:23:26.270-07:00According to this
http://housing-analysis.blogspot...According to this<br />http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2014/01/bc-interprovincial-and-international.html the net loss of people to Alberta (from all of BC) has been slowing quite dramatically in 2013 (fifth graph down)caveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-44048590489133801942014-03-20T22:21:38.897-07:002014-03-20T22:21:38.897-07:00@ dasmo
"You are the master of cherry pickin...@ dasmo<br /><br />"You are the master of cherry picking your stats info..."<br /><br />A false accusation.<br /><br />"Sure a .6 vacancy rate to 3.7 is 600%"<br /><br />My information is factual. <br /><br />10 years ago, Victoria's rental market was tight. Today, there is plenty available for renters to choose from. It is evidence that many Victorians have moved away to find work elsewhere. I used this information to make a point. <br /><br />Stating the percent increase from a decade ago is not cherry picking stats. <br /><br />"but .6% is crazy low and 3.7%is normal."<br /><br />You accuse me of cherry picking stats because I didn't state what might be the normal vacancy rate for Victoria. <br /><br />Only in your world would this be considered cherry picking stats.<br /><br />"Since you are so into "population adjusting" your sales stats why wouldn't you adjust this stat with the added inventory?"<br /><br />I think I remember that you had problems in the past understanding population adjustment. <br /><br />An increase in inventory has nothing to do with adjusting sales totals for population increases. <br /><br />The population of Greater Victoria grew by almost 40% from 1986 to 2012. There are a lot more houses in Victoria than there were in 1986. Obviously there should be more sales than there were 28 years ago. No trickery. All very valid. <br /><br />Adjusting yearly sales totals for increases in population is not a new concept. I'm not the only one who does it. It has been done by governments, economists, etc. for hundreds of years.<br /><br />"A lot of rental housing has come on line since then...So once you inventor adjust the vacancy rate you might find it actually stayed to same..."<br /><br />The vacancy rate does not need to be population adjusted. I would like to hear how you would do this. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vacancy-rate.asp" rel="nofollow">Basically, the vacancy rate is calculated by dividing the number of unoccupied rental units by the total number of available rentals. It is the opposite of the occupancy rate.</a> <br /><br />A sudden, significant increase in Victoria's population would probably result in a dramatic drop in the vacancy rate.<br /><br />The vacancy rate is affected by population increases and decreases. <br /><br />Most of what you wrote makes no sense at all. <br /><br />I'm sure many of the regular readers of this blog would appreciate it if you would stop with the constant (false) accusations. They add no value to the conversation. <br />infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-2626809496208498962014-03-20T22:19:36.786-07:002014-03-20T22:19:36.786-07:00@info
my previous discussion/conjecture was not s...@info<br /><br />my previous discussion/conjecture was not specific to Victoria and I really wasn't making any claims just speculating on the net effect across BC of the being adjacent to the strongest economy in Canada. <br /><br />If you want Victoria specific data on movement of people you can see that Victoria was a net gainer in population moving from elsewhere in BC (intraprovincial) and a net gainer from other provinces (interprovincial) in 2012. So if we lost people to 1 province (Alberta) we more than made that up from other migrants.<br /> <br />see http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Files/1290e36e-dbb1-4ba8-911e-e6df69fb84fa/BCRegionalDistrictDevelopmentRegionMigrationComponents.pdf <br />top of 2nd page is CRD.<br /><br />Victoria may have become a slightly more attractive destination for interprovincial migrants since then, as prices here have fallen slightly while they have risen elsewhere in Canada.<br /><br />Given a net flow to CRD from other provinces I would dispute your claim that "There is no evidence that buyers from Alberta or any other Canadian province have had a positive effect on house prices in Victoria."<br /><br />Rather I would suggest that there is a small net positive effect on house prices relative to where we would be with no net migration. The positive effect from migration is smaller in 2012 than in recent years before that.caveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-86575839752255210432014-03-20T22:12:11.574-07:002014-03-20T22:12:11.574-07:00Marko, cool post an beam... The original asking wa...Marko, cool post an beam... The original asking was $3,725,000 though... ;-)dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-55121190524374381052014-03-20T22:09:55.986-07:002014-03-20T22:09:55.986-07:00Watch this StatsCan website tomorrow for the lates...Watch this StatsCan website tomorrow for the latest update on deflation.<br /><br /> <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140221/dq140221a-eng.htm" rel="nofollow">StatsCan CPI Update</a>LeoMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13407650823511000293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-1165732739669916382014-03-20T21:54:06.786-07:002014-03-20T21:54:06.786-07:00MLS: 326107, 5991 Old West Saanich
Asking: $2,999...MLS: 326107, 5991 Old West Saanich<br /><br />Asking: $2,999,000<br />Sold: $2,800,000Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-77639899551048794872014-03-20T20:24:17.332-07:002014-03-20T20:24:17.332-07:00I guess Leo is too busy mowing his lawn to make a ...I guess Leo is too busy mowing his lawn to make a new post..dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22448179580123148492014-03-20T20:23:52.175-07:002014-03-20T20:23:52.175-07:00You are the master of cherry picking your stats in...You are the master of cherry picking your stats info... Sure a .6 vacancy rate to 3.7 is 600% but .6% is crazy low and 3.7% is normal. Since you are so into "population adjusting" your sales stats why wouldn't you adjust this stat with the added inventory? A lot of rental housing has come on line since then...So once you inventor adjust the vacancy rate you might find it actually stayed to same...dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-4712462454118923252014-03-20T17:55:04.738-07:002014-03-20T17:55:04.738-07:00@ caveat
"The net drain to Alberta would sug...@ caveat<br /><br />"The net drain to Alberta would suggest a net depressing effect on BC real estate"<br /><br />This is backed by Victoria's rising vacancy rate. That rate is more than 600% higher than a decade ago.<br /><br />This is part of the reason house prices in Victoria have been falling since 2010.<br /><br />"though that doesn't take account of the other wealth boosting effects of Alberta's economic activity."<br /><br />Alberta's economy isn't as strong as many would think. I know of many Victorians who had moved to AB for jobs who have lost those jobs within the last year. <br /><br />Alberta's (stronger) economy has, arguably, caused many Victorians to move there for work over the last 4 years. If anything, this has probably had a net negative effect on Victoria's economy and house prices. Less people renting and buying houses in Victoria has (probably) resulted in lower house prices. Less people spending money in Victoria would weaken Victoria's economy, which would weaken house prices (the Canadian economy is based 70% on consumer spending). <br /><br />"Then there is the purchase of vacation properties."<br /><br />Again, you provide no numbers or data to support your claim.<br /><br />What percent of properties sold in Victoria are to Albertans? <br /><br />There is no evidence that buyers from Alberta or any other Canadian province have had a positive effect on house prices in Victoria. <br /><br />As I said, SFH sales in Victoria have been in the tank since 2010. Extremely low sales is a big part of the reason that house prices have been declining since 2010. <br /><br />HAM is a thing of the past in Victoria and the rest of Canada. <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/rich-chinese-angry-over-cancellation-of-canadian-immigrant-program/article17269390/" rel="nofollow">The Immigrant Investor Program was recently axed.</a><br /><br />If anything there will be a lot less sales to foreign or (out-of-town) buyers moving forward in Victoria. More on this in another post.<br />infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-43184827719830472212014-03-20T17:48:08.370-07:002014-03-20T17:48:08.370-07:00@ Marko
"You are of the mindset that the mar...@ Marko<br /><br />"You are of the mindset that the market in Victoria will crash."<br /><br />I did not say that. I said that house prices in Victoria could drop, on average, 5% a year for 8 to 10 years. The total price decline would be 40% to 50%. Many would consider that to be the same as a crash. <br /><br />"If don't believe basic facts I provide then there is no point for further discussion with you."<br /><br />It is a general expectation from most regulars on this blog that "facts" are supported with evidence that others can look at. <br /><br />I try to do this myself.<br /><br />Why should we blindly accept your "facts"? infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-11919888099883737022014-03-20T17:41:20.843-07:002014-03-20T17:41:20.843-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-38495116858203390112014-03-20T17:40:03.901-07:002014-03-20T17:40:03.901-07:00Well then Marko, just tell the rest of us open min...Well then Marko, just tell the rest of us open minded folks the MLS number or address.<br /><br />No doubt the listing realtor is crowing about it on his web page, not to mention the "sold" sign in the front yard, so I'm sure he/she won't mind you telling us.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-18369667740610295452014-03-20T17:13:42.957-07:002014-03-20T17:13:42.957-07:00Proof?
Providing proof to you is along the lines ...<i>Proof?</i><br /><br />Providing proof to you is along the lines of spending my time arguing and providing proof against those that are anti-vaccination. <br /><br />Don't have time for either as no matter how much proof I provide it doesn't change the mindset.<br /><br />You are of the mindset that the market in Victoria will crash. There is no proof I can provide that will change your mindset.<br /><br />If don't believe basic facts I provide then there is no point for further discussion with you.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-51130454559048748172014-03-20T16:47:22.724-07:002014-03-20T16:47:22.724-07:00Following on my earlier post we know from Stats Ca...Following on my earlier post we know from Stats Canada figures that more people are leaving BC for Alberta than are leaving Alberta for BC. We also know that Alberta is by far the number 1 destination for BC'ers leaving and BC is by far the number 1 destination for Albertans leaving Alberta.<br /><br />The net drain to Alberta would suggest a net depressing effect on BC real estate though that doesn't take account of the other wealth boosting effects of Alberta's economic activity. Then there is the purchase of vacation properties.caveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-81830007006730451222014-03-20T16:35:46.424-07:002014-03-20T16:35:46.424-07:00Single family home sales across Greater Victoria h...Single family home sales across Greater Victoria have been in the tank since 2010. <br /><br />In 2010, total yearly SFH sales were 28% below the 30-year average. <br /><br />2011: - 32%<br />2012: - 36% <br />2013: - 33%<br /><br />House prices in Victoria are too high and not enough potential buyers can qualify for mortgages even with emergency level interest rates. <br /><br />Now that prices are down at least 10%, many first-time buyers (who bought from 2007 to 2013) have underwater mortgages and have effectively been eliminated as potential move-up buyers (see the chart I posted earlier). <br /><br />As well, I think many Victorians are beginning to understand that prices are falling and are probably willing to wait for lower prices. <br /><br /><a href="http://photos1.blogger.com/img/101/3984/1024/JapanLandPrices.jpg" rel="nofollow">This is all part of the process of the deflation of a housing bubble.</a> <br /><br />Yearly sales totals were population adjusted.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.com