tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post5071913813439431944..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: A secular decline in Victoria RE appreciation rate?HouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger243125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-16025768481603376792013-03-25T11:13:12.291-07:002013-03-25T11:13:12.291-07:00"Anyone have any personal stories about house..."Anyone have any personal stories about houses purchase around 1960 to get a feel for the prices back then?"<br /><br />A couple houses on Howe Street, in Fairfield, between Dallas Road and Faithful St. sold for between $11,000 and $13,000 around 1964-65.<br /><br />Half a block from the ocean, a nice 4 bedroom, three bath, full basement home for $12,000. I still kick myself for not buying it!!!LeoMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13407650823511000293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15718020848409464652013-03-25T11:03:37.325-07:002013-03-25T11:03:37.325-07:00So if you have over E100K stashed in Cyprus you ar...So if you have over E100K stashed in Cyprus you are royally screwed. This is a game changer when a country steals funds from account holders to pay for the irresponsible behaviour of it's politicians and banks. A small country with little economic impact on the Eurozone but anyone living in an overly indebted nation should be paying attention. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-7050538059975384662013-03-25T10:12:41.225-07:002013-03-25T10:12:41.225-07:00"Are you buying stocks with leveraged dollars..."Are you buying stocks with leveraged dollars"<br /><br />A little nuance here - if the investment vehicle you invest in is leveraged then you essentially have the same result. i.e. you buy stocks in a leveraged company, and most are, you are essentially leveraged.reasonfirsthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02787594578611685612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-72256155376643931042013-03-25T09:40:43.329-07:002013-03-25T09:40:43.329-07:00Real Estate vs Stocks?
Personally I don't que...Real Estate vs Stocks?<br /><br />Personally I don't question that stocks over the long run have greater return than real estate. I question 0% real return on real estate in North America. The land here was for the most part taken for free (or nearly so) from the previous inhabitants. 100 years ago you could still homestead and get land for the cost of registration in western Canada.caveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15924290450653758192013-03-25T08:51:53.123-07:002013-03-25T08:51:53.123-07:00thanks, Marko. Appreciate your sharing.thanks, Marko. Appreciate your sharing.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-36505309424363303332013-03-25T08:24:57.841-07:002013-03-25T08:24:57.841-07:00Monday, March 25, 2013 8:00am
MTD March
2013 20...Monday, March 25, 2013 8:00am<br /><br />MTD March<br />2013 2012<br />Net Unconditional Sales: 382 570<br />New Listings: 980 1,385<br />Active Listings: 4,267 4,274<br /><br />Please Note<br />Left Column: stats so far this month<br />Right Column: stats for the entire month from last yearMarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-11020153517302203302013-03-24T22:59:15.270-07:002013-03-24T22:59:15.270-07:00Sure, although the one I used for the comparison d...Sure, although the one I used for the comparison didn't reinvest dividends.<br /><br />They're not easy assets to compare. And you're right it may be hard to borrow extra near the same rate as a mortgage - if so, then may want to only add the allowable 11K per year.<br /><br />One last thing, you mentioned management fees. My example had the 18 year-old simply buying the 30 Dow stocks and holding long-term. So really the only cost would be maybe an hour to open the TF account, and $30 a year ($1 per trade) to buy a bunch of each Dow stock (most would at least agree stocks have cheaper transaction costs).<br /><br />Anyhow, I don't mind if we agree to disagree on the whole stocks vs. RE. I know I'm not going to change anyone's mind on it. There are opportune times for both.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00550264432110709714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-13244998814316466052013-03-24T21:05:53.629-07:002013-03-24T21:05:53.629-07:00@Dave,
A growth chart usually includes dividends r...@Dave,<br />A growth chart usually includes dividends re-invested. For instance: <a href="http://corporate.morningstar.com/ca/documents/MarketingOneSheets/AndexWallCANENG.pdf" rel="nofollow">Andex chart</a><br /><br />The DJIA is a straight up price index but the dow picks and choses it's stocks it includes so it's a little like picking cities and neighbourhoods with the maximum gains to formulate a RE index...<br /><br />Anyway, we agree in principle. I would also recommend that a person under 30 have roommates, rent, and invest. That's what I did ;-) <br /><br />I just couldn't let your borrowing 250k to invest in the stock market as a comparison fly by....dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-49181271740587826432013-03-24T17:25:00.796-07:002013-03-24T17:25:00.796-07:00Here are some neat stats for those of you that are...Here are some neat stats for those of you that are interested:<br /><br />Historical minimum wages in Manitoba:<br /><br />1921: .25 for females & boys <br /> under 18.<br /><br />1945: .35 for Males<br /> .30 for Females<br /><br />1952: .50 for Males<br /> .44.4 for Females <br /><br />1960: .66 for all<br />1966: 1.00<br />1970: 1.50<br />1980: 3.15<br />1991: 5.00<br />2012 10.25<br /><br />Federal Government and B.C.:<br /><br />1965: $1.25 Fed $1.00 BC<br />1970: $1.65 Fed $1.50 BC<br />1974: $2.20 Fed $2.50 BC<br />1981: $3.50 Fed $3.65 BC<br />1996: $6.00 BC<br />2001: $8.00 BC <br />2012: $10.25 BC<br /><br />Back in the early to mid 1970's, salaried entry level (Clerk 1) employees (mostly women), earned the Federal Government minimum wage. My cousin was one of them. Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22299651543381060032013-03-24T17:21:42.460-07:002013-03-24T17:21:42.460-07:00And given their red hot market, it would seem peop...And given their <a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Redfin-Under-Contract-14days-Seattle_2013-02.png" rel="nofollow">red</a> <a href="http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Redfin-Under-Contract-14days-Inventory-Seattle_2013-02.png" rel="nofollow">hot</a> market, it would seem people do realize the value there.Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-48268024301084640712013-03-24T17:18:23.584-07:002013-03-24T17:18:23.584-07:00Well we've only got 3 years to see whether you...<i>Well we've only got 3 years to see whether your theory will work south of the border.</i><br /><br />Well that is from peak. I would argue we're just about 3 years into our correction, so 10 years would be 13 years after peak, which would make it significantly longer than previous corrections.<br /><br />It is interesting that in a market like Seattle, the affordable house (30% of income) at today's interest rates is actually more expensive than the values at their peak. Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-85626546638783498802013-03-24T16:54:14.152-07:002013-03-24T16:54:14.152-07:00Patriotz: I can't find actual average income ...Patriotz: I can't find actual average income for 1974, but I would guestimate around $12,000K for males and $8000K for females if they were working full time.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-55776615035834555582013-03-24T16:43:43.896-07:002013-03-24T16:43:43.896-07:00Patriotz: You are right, the incomes for 1974 hav...Patriotz: You are right, the incomes for 1974 have been adjusted for inflation. I meant to say that.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-67599310077502277822013-03-24T16:24:04.094-07:002013-03-24T16:24:04.094-07:00In 1974 The average family income in Canada was $4...<i>In 1974 The average family income in Canada was $49,668. The average unattached individuals average was $20,422.</i><br /><br />Certainly not in nominal dollars.<br /><br /><i>A typical new spec home in the Mount Doug area in 1974 was around $36,000.</i><br /><br />But that is.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-81546011133844076772013-03-24T13:41:30.824-07:002013-03-24T13:41:30.824-07:00CS: I pretty well agree with most of what you say....CS: I pretty well agree with most of what you say.<br /><br />In 1974 The average family income in Canada was $49,668. The average unattached individuals average was $20,422.<br /><br />A typical new spec home in the Mount Doug area in 1974 was around $36,000. Typically the banks would lend you 1/3 of your household income times 3 years. If your wife worked they only included half of her income in the calculation).<br /><br />In 1973 Canadian chartered banks conventional 5 year mortgage rate was 9%. You might get some trimmed off of that....but there weren't the brokerages and on-line banks then that there are today.<br /><br />Victoria and Vancouver were much more in line with other cities across Canada in the 60's & early 70's. Toronto had the highest home prices and Ottawa was also higher priced than Victoria and Vancouver. <br /><br />In 2010 the Median total income per household was $69,860 in Canada and $66,970 in B.C. In 2012 the Chartered Banks conventional 5 year mortgage rate was 5.29%. But with all the on-line banks & brokers now you could most definitely get a cheaper one. The average SE home in the Gordon Head area right now is selling for $572,000. (The banks now include 100% of both incomes in their calculations!)<br /><br />Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-56453609174497525742013-03-24T12:40:33.528-07:002013-03-24T12:40:33.528-07:00I think 10 years is about the right timeframe for ...<i> I think 10 years is about the right timeframe for home ownership to hedge against declines. </i><br /><br />Well we've only got 3 years to see whether your theory will work south of the border. It already hasn't worked in Whistler, but I won't claim that represents anything.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-46373453913881034532013-03-24T12:33:01.166-07:002013-03-24T12:33:01.166-07:00Academics aside most well off individuals with low...<i>Academics aside most well off individuals with low to moderate incomes that I have met have done it via real estate. </i><br /><br />Do you think that has something to do with:<br /><br />1. You being young.<br />2. You being a RE agent.<br />3. Canada and Victoria having an unprecedented RE bubble over the last decade.<br /><br />Someone working in the tech field could have said the same about stocks in 2000. As just like people owning RE today, they didn't actually make any money unless they sold.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24048763758898070502013-03-24T11:31:49.033-07:002013-03-24T11:31:49.033-07:00@Leo S
I don't see the impetus for a major d...@Leo S<br /><br /><i> I don't see the impetus for a major decline (more than ~15%). </i><br /><br />So what causes a major decline?<br /><br />In the US, the crash was preceded by 17 Fed rate increases, but continued when rates were droppped to to near zero. <br /><br />In Canada, in the 80's the crash was preceded by interest rate increases. <br /><br />But is the interest rate increase prerequisite, or is a decline, however initiated, autocatalytic?<br /><br />A decline in Victoria has begun, even as interest rate continue to decline, so we'll see. <br /><br />The incentive to buy now or be priced out for ever has gone. <br /><br />The incentive to buy for immediate capital appreciation has gone.<br /><br />The willingness of those trading up to buy before they sold must be greatly reduced. <br /><br />Fear of rapid capital losses must be growing. <br /><br />Question is, are these factors sufficient to cause a collapse?<br /><br />Just Jack's Oak Bay data are consistent with what's to be seen in our neighborhood. Old listings seem to have become a permanent features of the landscape, new listings are turning into old listings, and open houses seen sparsely attended.CShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03399620869685840906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-37239798632835058332013-03-24T11:08:34.260-07:002013-03-24T11:08:34.260-07:00the growth of the DJIA includes dividends being re...<i>the growth of the DJIA includes dividends being reinvested, not being withdrawn....</i><br /><br />Not true. The link I posted showing roughly ~700% returns was not total returns (means dividends reinvested). Totoro assumed the same thing. <br />If you reinvested the dividends it would be in somewhere in the thousands of percent real return. <br />But nice try. Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00550264432110709714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22148054102639039992013-03-24T10:57:18.758-07:002013-03-24T10:57:18.758-07:00The data is what it is - thank goodness for stats....The data is what it is - thank goodness for stats. Lets see where we are year over year for the median after the spring market. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188115284116016130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-34061437721364136042013-03-24T10:15:55.345-07:002013-03-24T10:15:55.345-07:00Dave, I was simplifying since your outline for suc...Dave, I was simplifying since your outline for success did not include any other expenses like tenents insurance, or tading and management fees. Not to mention the growth of the DJIA includes dividends being reinvested, not being withdrawn....dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-56742922563412397492013-03-24T10:06:18.438-07:002013-03-24T10:06:18.438-07:00A Samuel Maclure mansion along Newport Avenue in O...A Samuel Maclure mansion along Newport Avenue in Oak Bay sold in March 2007 for $3,535,000.<br /><br />This month the property re-sold for $2,800,000<br /><br />Of the 15 properties to sell this month in Oak Bay - 7 sold below their BC assessed value.<br /><br />Oak Bay is different - you have a lot more to lose.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-27560086851827586422013-03-24T09:39:04.139-07:002013-03-24T09:39:04.139-07:00Drop a lot DavidL. I don't know where we are r...Drop a lot DavidL. I don't know where we are right now exactly but it is not a significant decline as reflected in listings in OB at least. <br /><br />Looking at the overall chart of the rise and fall of real estate prices there are drops, and then there are over the cliff drops. Given the big rise up I would expect a small decline with no real rise in prices for up to 10 years unless interest rates rise. <br /><br />But that is just my theory and the US had a big drop without interest rates going up.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188115284116016130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-86724202606925688022013-03-24T08:50:30.477-07:002013-03-24T08:50:30.477-07:00@totoro
Given the long run up, if prices do not d...@totoro <br /><i>Given the long run up, if prices do not drop... </i><br />Are you suggesting that prices haven't dropped?! DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-41715988623804168532013-03-24T08:20:07.342-07:002013-03-24T08:20:07.342-07:00And here I thought you were the troll Dave!And here I thought you were the troll Dave!dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.com