tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post5257528523998885478..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Olympic silenceHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger124125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8252883471750464192010-02-23T08:57:35.254-08:002010-02-23T08:57:35.254-08:00Well Vic, I like your style.
Go big - or go home
...Well Vic, I like your style.<br />Go big - or go home<br /><br />It doesn't matter anymore what you offer for a property. Bid another 100 large and your payments are only another $260 or so a month. When the market tanks your going to walk and declare bankruptcy anyway. And its easier to negotiate with a bank when you owe hundreds of thousands than just thousands.<br /><br />And this market was created by both the banks and the government lose lending policies - it was their fault anyway. So, you will have a bad credit rating for half a dozen years - big deal. You lose just as munch sleep owing a thousand bucks as you do a million. Your going to have a lot of company and the banks will have to make deals to get a fraction of the money you owe back.<br /><br />Now just youtube the song "Burning down the House" and enjoy.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-88349338845739979322010-02-23T08:20:50.511-08:002010-02-23T08:20:50.511-08:00"And people may say "oh its seasonal&quo..."And people may say "oh its seasonal" but this past year has been anything but typical - I mean come on - highest prices and sales in December!??!? Totally not seasonally typical."<br /><br /><br /><br />They bend the price/listings/sales to whatever pleases them. There is always an excuse when your a salesman and real estate is the worst because it is slow to start a trend. When you get the highest prices/sales in December then you have panic/herd buying which never ends well. <br /><br /> When the Oak Bay homes have to start lowering their prices then that is a sign worth noting. <br /><br />What I don't get is if you are in a sucker bidding war on a POS dump for $500,000 that you know will end up at 550,000, then why not just max out on another hundred grand or so and low ball an Oak Bay place in the $700,000 range ? If you're going down with the plane then why not do it with some style versus some shack in a so-so part of town ?Vichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08986654555255579099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-59733630979125277392010-02-22T14:00:40.711-08:002010-02-22T14:00:40.711-08:00Jan/Feb 2010 stats are looking just like Jan/Feb 2...Jan/Feb 2010 stats are looking just like Jan/Feb 2008. Interesting year that 2008 was, and the next couple of months will make things clear. I see a weakening of the market, the fact that the sell/list ratio for the past couple of months has been under 45% is a CHANGE from the fall/winter. And people may say "oh its seasonal" but this past year has been anything but typical - I mean come on - highest prices and sales in December!??!? Totally not seasonally typical. There are some signs of shifting... the stats hint to it, particularly if the lower end is struggling that hints that it will trickle to the core eventually (always the last to fall). And its not just "bear mountain" thats suffering - high end properties in oak bay are quiet and more stuff is sitting longer and taking lower offers. Just saw a house sell today for 50,000 under asking in south oak bay. I'd say that's an ok location. I think everyone agrees the real estate market can't stay hot forever, I just think the crash is closer than some may think. But time will tell... we'll know in one or two more months if this trend of lots of new inventory continues!thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-33958414228317475012010-02-22T09:58:59.599-08:002010-02-22T09:58:59.599-08:00Well, here is the sales to new listings ratio for ...Well, here is the sales to new listings ratio for the following class and area<br /><br />Core Area houses 0.48<br />Core Area condominiums 0.42<br />Peninsula houses 0.4<br />Westshore houses 0.32<br /><br />Houses in the core areas of Victoria continue to exhibit the strongest demand with houses in the Westshore being the more difficult properties to sell.<br /><br />Three of the above remain in balanced market conditions (between 0.4 to 0.6) while Westshore properties have fallen into a bear market territory.<br /><br />My interpretation is that the "move up" middle income plus market remains strong, but the <br />below middle income market is stumbling. Today's market appears to me all about location, location, location. And if you don't what this phrase means - then you are probably not in the right location, location, location and will probably never be invited to party there either. If you do know what location, location, location means then you are definitely deluding yourself because there is a good chance you don't live there. And if you think this means Bear Mountain - then your probably from Alberta and its about time you bought BC car insurance.<br /><br />The rates may be subject to wild swings as this data is only for the last 21 days.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-63817147697560969522010-02-22T08:10:04.971-08:002010-02-22T08:10:04.971-08:00oops...somehow I left off some info...
total acti...oops...somehow I left off some info...<br /><br />total active listings 3088thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-58168129291164207212010-02-22T08:08:55.350-08:002010-02-22T08:08:55.350-08:00Victoria month to date stats...
sales 461
new lis...Victoria month to date stats...<br /><br />sales 461<br />new listings 1096<br />total active<br /><br />thats a sales/list ratio of 42% - interpret it as you wish but I still see a potential bear market if this continues!!thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-23761111086120879622010-02-22T07:56:34.648-08:002010-02-22T07:56:34.648-08:00Marko,
You'd best talk to an agent or the VRE...Marko,<br /><br />You'd best talk to an agent or the VREB about your idea. As I understand it, you have to set up a brokerage in order to be your own boss. It's not enough to just get an agent's license, you'd have to be a licensed broker, which means way more costs/fees. I'd guess once you figure out the costs associated, your 80/20 split will look like your paying yourself far too little to justify the cash outlay initially/each year. I don't think you can be a licensed agent without a licensed managing broker.<br /><br />They're also a protectionist lot... you may find that other agents will refuse to show their listings to you or make it such a pain in your ass that your clients will think you're not a good agent etc...HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-2166020197995528422010-02-22T03:34:33.573-08:002010-02-22T03:34:33.573-08:00Partly it's a function of demographics - a lar...<i>Partly it's a function of demographics - a large portion of the rental stock was built to accommodate the boomers as they initially ventured forth from their parent's homes.</i><br /><br />Have to disagree. Purpose built rentals stopped being built in the early 70's as a result of Dave Barrett's rent controls, which of course was right around the time boomers started establishing their own households. <br /><br />Bill Bennett dropped the rent controls in 1983 but purpose built rentals never came back, as the developers had discovered that they could make more money with less risk selling condos. The reason being that dumb money always chases out smart money as I said before.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-62053974604685041822010-02-21T22:41:24.511-08:002010-02-21T22:41:24.511-08:00One of the other reasons apartments have not been ...One of the other reasons apartments have not been built in years is because basically the government doesn't want to give tax breaks to builders of future renter ghettos. I think the NDP of the 70's/80's were the last to do it.<br /><br /> They want everyone to own so we then keep buying useless junk for them which inturn keeps the economy churning. If we all rented and it was cheap, they would lose out on billions in future taxes from all angles.<br /><br /> Home ownership is so key to keeping political parties in power. Happy owners = winning elections. But I think we will have alot of unhappy owners soon when negative equity will be the norm and the party ends, for a very long time.Vichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08986654555255579099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-16362069378856665542010-02-21T22:38:11.022-08:002010-02-21T22:38:11.022-08:00A little off topic, I've been browsing some we...A little off topic, I've been browsing some websites, I found this on onepercentrealty.com, a discount agency...<br /><br />"Our Vancouver Island offices completed a study on their Salespeople's 2008 gross commission figures. Even in a year with sales volume down industry wide by one third, our salesperson’s still did very well in 2008. The Brokerage wide average for our working agents who were with the company throughout all of 2008 was approximately $87,000 while the top 50% of the salespeople earning average gross commissions in excess of $145,000! Then factor in that we don't charge our working agents any monthly office fees coupled with the reduced operational overhead required to obtain a sales volume at 1% is a small fraction of what traditional agents will spend to generate the same amount of business."<br /><br />Is it just me or is $87,000 for what a realtor does a ridiculous amount of money? Does the average person with a Masters Degree even make that much these days?<br /><br />I have officially ordered books/course from UBC and will be getting my realtors license within the year. <br /><br />Does anyone know how complicated it would be to launch a new realty company? I basically want to offer people a business model where we offer 80% cash backing for buyers (on listings with 3% and 1.5% for buyer's agent). I like driving around anyway in my evenings/weekends. I would' mind showing 10 homes or so, doing a little negotiation and making $2,000 and give the rest to the buyer's (on a $500,000 transaction buyer's commission would be $9,000 and we split that $2,000 for me, $7,000 for them). <br /><br />I also would list homes on MLS for $1,500 flat seller’s fee + whatever you want to put for the buyer's portion keeping in mind that $1,000 probably won't attract many buyer's agents. <br /><br />What do you guys think? I would like some feedback.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-55290859949560007562010-02-21T21:55:55.230-08:002010-02-21T21:55:55.230-08:00Thank-goodness we've moved away from the retir...Thank-goodness we've moved away from the retirement planning scenario discussion and back onto the housing market. <br /><br />The lack of purpose built rentals is interesting. Partly it's a function of demographics - a large portion of the rental stock was built to accommodate the boomers as they initially ventured forth from their parent's homes. Partly its a consequence of tax changes. Partly, its a consequence of the boomer's kids not venturing forth from their parent's homes until they were nearly ready (or so they think) to take on home ownership themselves. Partly its an artifact of the run up in housing prices that has caused purpose built rental buildings to be uneconomic (from the developers perspective). After all, if 10 units of housing is the best use of the property, then 10 units will be built. The second decision relates to how they are managed - and generally speaking they will be managed in whichever way yields the highest return, given the risk involved. Right now, that means condominiums not rentals. But everything changes at some point and its conceivable that large portions of the condos will be bought by investors and managed as rentals after a real estate correction...quite simply because the price and the prevailing rents will make it economic to do so. <br /><br />I think the 'shelter value' is always determined by the rental value that would prevail for a given property - but that other values may also exist 'ownership value'. While the shelter value is always likely to be positive, the ownership value can be either positive or negative depending on the context in which it exists. When ownership value is positive, rents are lower the home prices and when ownership value is negative then home prices are lower than rents.Just Janicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06002680972898096266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-81785403455829013622010-02-21T19:39:01.371-08:002010-02-21T19:39:01.371-08:00I'm somewhat with Patriotz on this one.
It co...I'm somewhat with Patriotz on this one.<br /><br />It comes down to ROI. Think about the taxation. Building a rental unit has no tax value to anyone. It's taxed at the highest rate possible and provides very little ROI to begin with.<br /><br />Building a condo/multi-unit dwelling gets tax preference and provides higher ROI.<br /><br />Why would anyone build a purpose rental? Answer: free land or tax favouritism. The example lies at the foot of the Millstream interchange--it works, but municipalities and the CRA must work together to provide incentive, rather than dissuasion. <br /><br />But why would the gov't give anything up? Everyone wants to own, not rent, and ownership is where the big taxes come from for municipalities. They couldn't care less about non-tax paying renters, despite all the "fix homelessness now" hoopla--which is why all their "solutions" to lack of rentals are about taxing homeowners with illegal suites by making them legal. <br /><br />I'd wager the ROI plays less that 1% into the decision making process for true corporate developers... it's mostly about tax, IMO.HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-28260078058764581862010-02-21T19:30:05.423-08:002010-02-21T19:30:05.423-08:00My Jack, that was quite the anology. Puts a whole ...My Jack, that was quite the anology. Puts a whole new spin on the word condominium. ;)Vichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08986654555255579099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-37339023577380760112010-02-21T18:29:18.760-08:002010-02-21T18:29:18.760-08:00Well, you can't just label someone an idiot ju...Well, you can't just label someone an idiot just because they don't have a similar view point to yours.<br /><br />Currently, the public perceives an additional value to home ownership over the simplistic approach of just rental value. <br /><br />If the market were to crash for condominiums like they did for the leaky condos, then the rental rate would be appropriate. This would provide an investor with a positive return on their equity in terms of money. However a home owner receives a return on his equity not in money but in intangible items such as a sense of security, right of passage into adulthood, peer acceptance, even the ability to attract a mate.<br /><br />These are not easily quantified in terms of money, but by virtue of condominiums selling well over what a developer wants as a rental rate of return is sufficient proof of the existence of an intangible return to the home owner.<br /><br />Think of yourself as a young boy masturbating - there was no tangible return to the physical effort you invested, but you continued to do it for the intangibles or just until you needed laser eye surgery.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-36964484963557447542010-02-21T15:37:19.993-08:002010-02-21T15:37:19.993-08:00The highest return, in terms of money, for the lan...<i>The highest return, in terms of money, for the land is 10 condominiums.</i><br /><br />You are confusing use with titling, and economic return of an asset with the return to one party in a transaction. In economic terms the use of the property is the building that you put on it, and the economic return is the same whether it's a multi-unit rental or condo. Namely the rental value.<br /><br />Developers build condos because the people who buy them are idiots who are willing to pay far more than the economic return. The greater return to the developer is at the expense of losses to them. But the property itself is not producing a greater return, i.e. a more valuable real output.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-12543263093830331292010-02-21T15:07:33.236-08:002010-02-21T15:07:33.236-08:00"First of all a lot of products out of China ..."First of all a lot of products out of China are actually really solid believe it or not. "<br /><br /><br />How about the China drywall fiasco that still hasn't been dealt with ? Not to mention the lead poisoning filler content in so many products ?Vichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08986654555255579099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-42416769249644948592010-02-21T14:49:55.528-08:002010-02-21T14:49:55.528-08:00I don't know JJ, my experience in the construc...I don't know JJ, my experience in the construction field leads me to believe opposite from what you are saying. Think of the 70s houses with thier paper thin doors and single pane windows (even though you could get double pane). The 90s houses with basically no finishing. All the way to the worst homes of all the 40s spec house. <br /><br />Now a days the standard fixtures are much better. There was monkeys doing some of the work then, just as now.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-9025516740746752392010-02-21T13:10:25.334-08:002010-02-21T13:10:25.334-08:00The kitchen and bathroom cabinets, the lower grade...The kitchen and bathroom cabinets, the lower grade laminate floors, door and cabinet hardware, exterior light fixtures. Actually anything that was once made of brass and is now plastic. The low grade particle board being held by staples in the cabinetry, off gases from anything that requires glue, fibreboard that swells when it gets wet. All most all plastic components as they degrade quickly. Take a look at your stoves, the "food traps" under the electric burners can not be cleaned - they can only be replaced. Most of the appliances in spec homes are not going to make it to 15 years without repairs, but are cheaper to replace than to repair.<br /><br />No Marko, the quality is not there. I have gone through half a dozen plastic house phones in the last 10 years. Yet the phone I have never had to replace or repair and one that I use every day in my den was made in the USA in 1935.<br /><br />I'm not saying all products but anything made in China is suspect. Unfortunately, almost all of these components are made in China. In my shed I have garden tools that are over 30 years old that are as solid as they day they were made. I replaced a snow shovel with one from china and it lasted one season. <br /><br />For the last 20 years we have exported our cheap jobs, garbage and pollution to China, they remake it, repackage it and sell it back to us. I check the package on everything I buy, from frozen spinach to sardines and make my choice accordingly. What peeves me off, is that I am having less and less choice everyday.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-89996330957958592762010-02-21T12:10:56.481-08:002010-02-21T12:10:56.481-08:00"because the materials are so china cheap tha..."because the materials are so china cheap that you would have to strip the suites every 15 years."<br /><br />First of all a lot of products out of China are actually really solid believe it or not. <br /><br />Second of all, construction methods are improving as is the code. <br /><br />For example, now a few builders including myself are using I-Joists on all of our projects instead of 10'' x 2'' which can shrink anywhere from 1/8'' of an inch to 1/4'' and cause problems later on. <br /><br />Could you be more percise when you say "cheap materials?" What exactly will need to be stripped in 15 years? The drywall? The flooring? The appliances? The fixtures?Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-25347377329792504322010-02-21T10:28:56.460-08:002010-02-21T10:28:56.460-08:00No, it's the highest and best use of the prope...No, it's the highest and best use of the property.<br /><br />We all know that if we buy in bulk we get a good price. That is why you can buy a pound of nails for $5. But if you only need 10 nails then you buy a small pack of 10 for 89 cents. That's the economy of scale.<br /><br /><br />So when a developer looks at a vacant site that he can either build 10 rental apartments or 10 separate titled condominiums for nearly the same cost, he builds 10 condominiums. The highest return, in terms of money, for the land is 10 condominiums.<br /><br />And looking back historically, the demise of the purpose built rental apartment building occurred when condominiums ownership was developed in the early 1970's.<br /><br />I don't think its a case of real rents being too low. The rents are determined by market conditions. The purpose built apartment buildings are old stock inventory and the condominium is mostly newer housing hence the rent difference of some 30 to 40 percent between the two. <br /><br />I think developers today are in the market for the short term. A lot of the apartment buildings of the past were built and held by the developers for their long term income stream. Today its the quick buck. And I don't blame developers. I wouldn't want to hold most of the complexes built today, because the materials are so china cheap that you would have to strip the suites every 15 years.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-90073185241475322442010-02-21T09:37:07.623-08:002010-02-21T09:37:07.623-08:00The problem is when condos and rentals are equally...<i>The problem is when condos and rentals are equally attractive to developers, and then pretty much nether is attractive.</i><br /><br />Maybe they were just waiting for the next bubble, i.e. the current one?<br /><br />Or maybe real rents are too low. The stats for Vancouver show that they have been declining for decades, I wouldn't be surprised that Victoria is the same.<br /><br />The problem with respect to investment in rental housing is that there are too many amateurs in the business - condo speculators, house landlords, basement suite owners - who don't pay attention to getting a competitive return. Thus the business becomes unattractive to real business people.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-54830457289419707792010-02-21T08:07:22.093-08:002010-02-21T08:07:22.093-08:00"If condo buyers weren't so stupid and di..."If condo buyers weren't so stupid and didn't pay such absurd prices, condos and rentals would be equally attractive to developers."<br /><br />The problem is when condos and rentals are equally attractive to developers, and then pretty much nether is attractive. <br /><br />How many condo towers were built downtown/core during the 1990s - Manhattan and Metropolitan? I believe Regent's Park was started in the late 1980s and Shoal Point caught the end of the 1990s. Therefore, when condos were closer in attraction to rentals for developers essentially two towers went up in 10 years.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-83381691876741789992010-02-21T06:16:23.042-08:002010-02-21T06:16:23.042-08:00In some major markets like Toronto, the condominiu...<i>In some major markets like Toronto, the condominium has become part of the new de facto rental market because taxes and other government regulations have discouraged the construction of rental stock</i><br /><br />That's ridiculous. They don't build multi-unit rentals any more in Calgary, either. In fact they have been converting existing rentals to condos. They are not too big on taxes and regulations (no rent controls) there.<br /><br />The reason is simple and obvious - the market price for condos is inflated so far above rental value that developers can make far more money selling them than they can building and renting out properties.<br /><br />If condo buyers weren't so stupid and didn't pay such absurd prices, condos and rentals would be equally attractive to developers.<br /><br />The author is just another bubble denier.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-87090660776980762932010-02-20T19:38:50.616-08:002010-02-20T19:38:50.616-08:00Just Jack - what asinine b.s. in that article.Just Jack - what asinine b.s. in that article.Animal Spirithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14290032551579947421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-7711550428179334742010-02-20T17:30:50.705-08:002010-02-20T17:30:50.705-08:00Oh, bother. It use to be that everyone said they ...Oh, bother. It use to be that everyone said they ain't making anymore land. Turns out now they ain't making any more rentals. Fellow basement dwellers, expect your rents to go UP. <br /><br />http://www.timescolonist.com/<br />business/fp/money/worry+home+loan+<br />rules+still+bent/2575536/story.html<br /><br />"The group most affected by the changes are condominium investors, who will suddenly be forced to come up with a 20% down payment to be eligible for mortgage insurance. If you're a renter, this part of yesterday's news could affect you in the coming years.<br /><br />In some major markets like Toronto, the condominium has become part of the new de facto rental market because taxes and other government regulations have discouraged the construction of rental stock. Expect the supply to grow less quickly, potentially raising your rents."<br /><br />S2Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.com