tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post5946120862433726920..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: A simple questionHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger177125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-71089304373413179802010-06-01T23:45:29.445-07:002010-06-01T23:45:29.445-07:00"Last month there was one sale of over $3.5 m..."Last month there was one sale of over $3.5 million and a whole lot of $1-2 million. I definitely think that skewed the mean upwards."<br /><br />It seems like every month we have 20 to 30 >$1 million dollar sales so how much is the price actually being skewed month to month? Its not like one month we have one sale over a million and the next 25.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64859540070233488602010-06-01T20:04:36.098-07:002010-06-01T20:04:36.098-07:00Hi people;
What I meant on my last blog....is the...Hi people;<br /><br />What I meant on my last blog....is the price increases are showing average housing were selling in May for say $550 or whatever up from previous month. But and this is a big but.....the houses that were selling before i.e. at slightly less prices were houses that were of much less quality as the ones that sold in May. The May house sales were for houses that previously were selling for say $600 - $700 in Jan, Feb, Mar, April but are now selling for around $550. The houses that sold for $550 in Mar, April and May would now be selling (if they were still available) for under $500K. So.... the average and median prices may be up for May but this is because those houses in previous months would have sold for so much more. In other words what you were getting in Feb for $540K would now go for $499K; and the ones that you have to purchase now for $550K were selling in Feb for over $600K I hope this makes sense to you.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-10226595535323976972010-06-01T19:53:54.673-07:002010-06-01T19:53:54.673-07:00Think: My idea as to why prices went up. The media...Think: My idea as to why prices went up. The median SFD is only $500 less than the record in January.<br /><br />Price reductions are up. Inventory is up. Sales are down. Perhaps the sellers of more expensive properties that have been on the market for a while are accepting low offers. This would also explain my question earlier about increased sales as well.CGDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11643098018973146137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-65338137625654597972010-06-01T19:15:06.757-07:002010-06-01T19:15:06.757-07:00Hi think;
I was shocked as well, especially after...Hi think;<br /><br />I was shocked as well, especially after reading Vancouver's sales dropped $48K last month.<br /><br />However, the mean (average) price is highly influenced by very high, or very low sales. Really low is highly improbable in this market, but really high is not. Last month there was one sale of over $3.5 million and a whole lot of $1-2 million. I definitely think that skewed the mean upwards. <br /><br />However, the median was also up (not nearly as much). The median can be misleading as well, though.<br /><br />Next month may see a very, very large drop if May's increase was largely a statistical artifact.<br /><br />But yes, I was very surprised.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-6120273295213626112010-06-01T18:47:56.562-07:002010-06-01T18:47:56.562-07:00Just a question... Is anyone else surprised we did...Just a question... Is anyone else surprised we didn't see a price drop for May? I thought for sure we'd see a significant drop in sale prices this month considering how many houses I've seen selling well under asking price and with all the price reductions. Oh well, just have to be patient I guess...thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-14529966715280294972010-06-01T18:47:17.486-07:002010-06-01T18:47:17.486-07:00I have looked at the Vancouver and Victoria stats ...I have looked at the Vancouver and Victoria stats and I am noticing a slight up tick in sales (even more so in Vancouver) the past little bit. Does anybody have an idea as to why? Even double agents stats show this increase. May should be decaying not increasing. ideas?CGDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11643098018973146137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-33369846367881760752010-06-01T18:43:21.196-07:002010-06-01T18:43:21.196-07:00I just got a chance to read all the posts from tod...I just got a chance to read all the posts from today - been rather a busy day, but I wanted to make sure Double-Agent knows how much I value his posts! I am as bear as they come - enjoying the shift - just been really swamped lately and haven't had as much time to post. But I'm always around :)thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-76299848085668902442010-06-01T18:25:40.869-07:002010-06-01T18:25:40.869-07:00Great chart Double-Agent.Great chart Double-Agent.Oliveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04163996405544770241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-67253238333861978322010-06-01T18:25:02.430-07:002010-06-01T18:25:02.430-07:00Alexandrahere,
Looks like lots of price reduction...Alexandrahere,<br /><br />Looks like lots of price reductions out there. The new mortgage rules will have an impact on the "suite deals" as well. Under new rules buyers qualify for a much smaller mortgage for homes with a mortgage helper.<br /><br />Bears just need to be patient. The MSM and VREB are still singing the balanced and stable song but that won't last more than a few months.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-49477568595588156932010-06-01T18:18:38.454-07:002010-06-01T18:18:38.454-07:00Double Agent & Peter Pfann,
Thanks for all th...Double Agent & Peter Pfann,<br /><br />Thanks for all the stats and reports. It is amazing how one can be so mislead by the way VREB selectively releases stats to the public.<br /><br />Here are some of my observations after reading this material:<br /><br />- In May 364 houses of all types sold for an average of 646K. 12 of those houses were waterfront and 20 were acreage etc. The average for the remaining 332 was 609K. So 32 homes accounted for the 37 K difference. Really shows how high end sales bias the stats.<br /><br />- The 332 houses sold in May is a big drop from the 378 in April and way less than the 445 in May 2009 (25% drop). Inventory has jumped to 1449 from 1256 in April (9% increase) and is also up from 1037 (whopping 40% increase)<br /><br />- Townhouses had a big drop in May as well. 63 versus 87 in April (28% drop) and 88 in May 2010 (28% drop). Inventory now stands at 349 vs. 318 a year ago (10% increase). Prices have been dropping from a high in December 2009 of 474K to 431K in May.<br /><br />- The big surprise is in condos. Sales have been steady with 202 in May, 191 in April vs 223 a year ago (9% drop). The average price however dropped last month by 14K to 324K.EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-9650670028646239622010-06-01T18:08:01.384-07:002010-06-01T18:08:01.384-07:00Owners Stop Paying Mortgage ... And Stop Fretting ...Owners Stop Paying Mortgage ... And Stop Fretting About It<br /><br />http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Owners-Stop-Paying-Mortgage-nytimes-4276925797.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=6d3fd4e82c82aaff530195d88ce826b8&ccode=rd<br /><br />Coming to an overpriced Canadian town near you.....Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02135885959544346194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84436204534081351252010-06-01T17:55:47.143-07:002010-06-01T17:55:47.143-07:00DoubleAgent,
your posts are most informative. I ...DoubleAgent,<br /><br />your posts are most informative. I am just a little inundated lately.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-68372330916240304442010-06-01T17:46:03.856-07:002010-06-01T17:46:03.856-07:00Love the stats and graphs - that is one of the rea...Love the stats and graphs - that is one of the reasons this blog is great - reliable, accurate local data and analyses.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-82314119283190803762010-06-01T17:34:00.097-07:002010-06-01T17:34:00.097-07:00Double Agent....I really appreciate your graphs th...Double Agent....I really appreciate your graphs there is nothing as telling as a big picture at a glanceAlexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-48994799774893280172010-06-01T17:06:17.550-07:002010-06-01T17:06:17.550-07:00The Single Family Home (SFH) prices that are publi...The Single Family Home (SFH) prices that are published every month include all categories of house sales. VREB and CMHC also release the SFH prices that exclude waterfront, acreage, duplex, triplex etc. and this is shown in the following chart along with condos and townhouses. Take a look at May 2010 compared to previous months. You will note that typical SFH only increased 10K compared to the 22K reported in the VREB press release. <br /><br /><a href="http://i49.tinypic.com/dgtrgp.png" rel="nofollow">Victoria - Historical Prices - click here</a><br /><br />BTW - I have not been getting much feedback on my recent stat and graph posts. Maybe it is boring stuff to readers and no longer of any interest. Let me know if it is worthwhile to continue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-58609342285915364372010-06-01T16:21:54.919-07:002010-06-01T16:21:54.919-07:00Pitiful cut and paste job at the TC. According to...Pitiful cut and paste job at the TC. According to them a sales decrease of 8% in one month and 22% YOY is only a "slight" drop. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Lots+sale+Victoria+real+estate+listings+surpass/3098315/story.html" rel="nofollow">Carla the parrot squawks again!</a><br /><br />I see the VREB is now back to reporting total sales over 5 months when there is a downturn. They did this before when the market tanked.<br /><br /><i>To date this year, sales are nearly 14 per cent ahead of the first five months of last year, said Randi Masters, Victoria Real Estate Board president.</i><br /><br />At least Randi had the honesty to follow this with..<br /><br /><i>“It’s important to note that the first few months of this year were very strong compared to the same period a year ago when the effects of the recession were still being strongly felt.”</i><br /><br />This is a choice line...<br /><br /><i>Higher inventory should “temper upward price pressure,” Masters said Tuesday. Total inventory is up 19 per cent from a year ago.</i><br /><br /><b>Uh Randi - I think you will find only downward price pressure in the coming months</b>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-44528770872020335432010-06-01T14:23:25.900-07:002010-06-01T14:23:25.900-07:00Take heart people....Most of the "deals"...Take heart people....Most of the "deals" out there, i.e. SFD under $550.00 have now been bought up by FTB's. Loads of those had income producing suits.<br /><br />So the reason that the average and median prices are up is that now the "not so suite" deals are coming on the market and are being reduced then sold or like many are just sitting there. These are homes that would have been a few months ago priced between $550-$720K. Now they are being newly put on the market, re-listed or reduced to prices between $520K-$559K.<br /><br />Some examples been posted on MLS in just the last TWO days are:<br /><br />Savannah SE $569 - $539<br />Marifield JB $575 - $559<br />The Rise Vic $565 - $554<br />Alder SE $579 - $559<br />Finlayson Vic $619 - $559<br />5th St. Vic $589 - $549<br />Myrtle Vic $554 - $524<br />Kings Vic $559 - $537<br />Astra SE $579 - $558<br /><br />Also here are some Fairfield homes that sold in May. The real estate <br />scene is only going to get progressively worse for home sellers.<br /><br />Earl St. $700 - $685<br />Fairfield $725 - $678<br />Joseph $589 - $538<br />Richmond $619 - $570<br />Richardson $697 - $678<br />Irving $785 - $725<br />Bank $614 - $580<br />Langham Ct $589 - $550<br />Terrace $749 - $735<br /><br />And the condo market? Nothing is selling.....unless they are being sold at firesale prices.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-23444608618186801532010-06-01T13:00:09.746-07:002010-06-01T13:00:09.746-07:00For your reading pleasure,
here is a link to all ...For your reading pleasure,<br /><br />here is a link to all 18 pages of the monthly VREB review.<br /><br />As skeptic is showing the spin is on.<br /><br />averages lie, medians (over a 6 months period will give you a much better indication of reality.<br /><br />This is month 2 or 3 with this very distinct change in market activity and direction, so the next 60 to 90 days will flush out the true market reality with proof beyond the possibility to spin it in to utopia.<br /><br />Have fun studying the information in the complete release<br /><br />http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/publish/PeterPfann/Pfanntastic/2010-05_vreb_statistics__statistical_digest_(2).pdfPeter & Linda Pfannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12186970936099433056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-29333264755195071162010-06-01T11:23:48.298-07:002010-06-01T11:23:48.298-07:00VREB report is now out - click here
It was a blea...VREB report is now out - <a href="http://www.vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html" rel="nofollow">click here</a><br /><br />It was a bleak report with sales down, inventory up and condo/townhouse prices dropping. Single family home average and median did rise however. This was mainly due to high end sales and one 3.5 million dollar sale in Oak Bay. Here is the price breakdown - April in ().<br /><br />SFH average -646,483 (624,149) <br />SFH median - 594,500 (572,500)<br /><br />Condo average - 324,005 (340,105) <br />Condo median - 290,050 (305,000)<br /><br />Townhouse avg. - 430,713 (449,556) <br />Townhouse median - 418,000 (430,000)<br /><br />There was some great "spin"...<br /><br /><i>The number of homes and other properties sold throughout the Victoria area softened in May while the choices for buyers increased with a further rise in the number of properties available for sale.<br /><br />"So far this year sales are running nearly 14 per cent ahead of the first five months of last year <br /><br />Masters added that further increases in the number of properties available for sale should temper upward price pressures as buyers enjoy a wider selection of properties from which to choose</i><br /><br /><b>Randi - Buyers are clearing <i>choosing</i> to move to the sidelines in increasing numbers. Why buy now when price drops are inevitable?</b>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-73472309376497586832010-06-01T11:23:43.292-07:002010-06-01T11:23:43.292-07:00Actually the legal services industry is likely to ...Actually the legal services industry is likely to be unaffected by a market downturn and may even experience growth. <br /><br />Why?<br /><br />As the market slides downwards and equity is wiped out, people face foreclosures, increased strain and increased conflict. So what is lost in relatively cheap conveyancing work is more than made up for in more lucrative foreclosure and divorce litigation.<br /><br />Legal services does well when things are booming and it does well when things hit the skids and it does okay most other times. <br /><br />Now the lawyer/notary who only does conveyancing work, well they might be a different story.<br /><br />If only large legal firms had stocks traded on the stock exchange - it's one area I'd actually be comfortable investing in.Just Janicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06002680972898096266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8672135689488304182010-06-01T11:05:01.604-07:002010-06-01T11:05:01.604-07:00I wonder what happened to Think?
All this mayhe...I wonder what happened to <b>Think?</b> <br /><br />All this mayhem and not one post. Think - if you are around enjoy these charts comparing May 2010 to the previous 5 years.<br /><br /><a href="http://i49.tinypic.com/f3su8y.png" rel="nofollow">Sales to New Listings Ratio</a> like 2008<br /><br /><a href="http://i46.tinypic.com/25ews45.png" rel="nofollow">Sales to Active Listings Ratio</a> worse than 2008<br /><br /><a href="http://i48.tinypic.com/ibm1s6.png" rel="nofollow">Months of Inventory</a> in bear territory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-53651091836201965462010-06-01T10:36:18.215-07:002010-06-01T10:36:18.215-07:00HI Maniac,
You are correct, the rate hike on its o...HI Maniac,<br />You are correct, the rate hike on its own won't have any affect, at least not short term, it is just one more factor that will make many buyers take a step back before doing anything now or for the foreseeable future.<br /><br />Today we have 15 months of inventory at current sales levels, that is a huge difference from a year ago and compares with pre market adjustment levels from 1995 and 1991 (only 1980 was higher that I recall, when the big axe came down)<br /><br />I am not looking forward to this for some of our clients that will get caught in refinancing and or substantial equity challenges.<br /><br />But for the people downsizing, and 1st timers, and as suggested before some small investors, as well as those that can sell now and buy back in later, there will be great opportunities moving towards you like a freight train.<br /><br />The rebound upwards will show itself very clearly as well once inventory to sales ratio's start getting back to an inventory level near the 8 to 9 months worth of supply.<br /><br />I know some of you love this for your reasons, I must admit, I see a lot of hardship and problems coming up for many that got caught up in the hype a few years ago and feel bad for them.<br /><br />Never mind the lay-offs in construction, inspectors, renovation, moving bus, legal industry, and many of the other businesses benefiting from brisk real estate activity (not just price increases)<br /><br />We don't worry about our practice, people will always buy and sell and seek out those that serve them well, and after this many years we have been fortunate to have established a great report with our clients.<br /><br />On a side note; in 1995 we had the highest number of realtors ever in the VREB at 1642, by late 1997 we where down to fewer than 800.<br /><br />Today we are back up at approx 1,300 I bet any of you a nice bottle of wine that by the end of this year we will be down to about 1,000 give or take a few.<br /><br />Maintain your COOL, "we ain't seen nothing yet" (as the song goes).Peter & Linda Pfannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12186970936099433056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-35526285445697948102010-06-01T10:29:35.131-07:002010-06-01T10:29:35.131-07:00Another agent in Vancouver posts about the downtur...Another agent in Vancouver posts about the downturn in real estate.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/mays-wilting-flower/" rel="nofollow">Mays Wilting Flowers</a><br /><br /><i>The showers of April were not enough to stop Vancouver’s real estate market flower from wilting. For the two months prior, records were broken as the highest average detached prices were recorded in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s history. In May 2010, those records are now a thing of the past as the average detached price heads back to familiar territory.</i>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-18491074475388837042010-06-01T09:44:18.371-07:002010-06-01T09:44:18.371-07:00Sorry but the rate hike will probably have zero af...Sorry but the rate hike will probably have zero affect. <br /><br />1) Under the new rules variable rates are not considered anyway.<br /><br />2) Banks will be upping the discount off prime so it's likely variable rates will not move at all.<br /><br />3) Bond yields on 5 year bonds are down on the rate hike news since .5 was priced in. <br /><br />Never the less this market is clearly on a downward slide.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-27714309885266049632010-06-01T09:43:04.313-07:002010-06-01T09:43:04.313-07:00With house listing up 20 percent and sale volume d...With house listing up 20 percent and sale volume down 25 percent, are we running out of buyers at current prices?<br /><br />The sales to new-listing ratio for the urban municipalities during May indicated a balanced market between buyers and sellers with prices being stable and only slightly higher that May 2009.<br /><br />Which is not typical for one of the busiest months of the year. When things were really rocking in Victoria that sales to new-listings rate was over 0.9 and annual prices were rising at 15 and 20 percent.<br /><br />May and June can be the hottest months of the year for real estate with the third quarter usually showing increasing inventory and a lower sales to new-listings ratio.<br /><br />The trend would normally be for lower sale volumes in the third, fourth quarters. Coupled with weakening fundamentals such as rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence should mean a continuously lowering of prices for at least the remainder of the year.<br /><br />So, you gotta ask yerself, if there is gonna be more properties to chose from; and prices are gonna be lower next month and the month after that - why yah buyin today?<br /><br />And if you want to move up in the market. Sell your house and take a long, long closing date with a big, big non refundable deposit. Short the market!Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.com