tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post6204951839867502006..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Boxes in the skyHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8394745952684421952013-10-16T17:42:57.906-07:002013-10-16T17:42:57.906-07:00@ Leo
Clearly I've shown that the Teranet is ...@ Leo<br /><br />Clearly I've shown that the Teranet is biased upwards and the market is much weaker than it appears from their numbers.<br /><br />There are hundreds if ways that they could create an upward bias. I would have to see their raw sales data and precisely what they do to it to be able to understand this fully.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-85741393822142818252013-10-16T17:35:19.694-07:002013-10-16T17:35:19.694-07:00Repeat sales indicies are not as susceptible to th...Repeat sales indicies are not as susceptible to the sales mix change. If higher end places are selling it is still the relative change in their price, not their actual price that matters.<br /><br />The only time it matters is if certain segments of the market are behaving markedly different than other segments. So info, if you claim that high end places have dropped the most, and currently more high end places are selling, then that would mean the Teranet is actually biased downwards, and the actual market is stronger than it suggests. <br />We can't actually conclude that (way too many variables here) but playing devil's advocate.Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-56411207337448570902013-10-16T16:51:11.818-07:002013-10-16T16:51:11.818-07:00I should add that the expensive group experienced,...I should add that the expensive group experienced, by far, the biggest price drop.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-6043819344534172952013-10-16T16:24:13.304-07:002013-10-16T16:24:13.304-07:00@ Introvert
No numbers were removed.
You don'...@ Introvert<br /><br />No numbers were removed.<br /><br />You don't understand what I did. Try again.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91665455258552591642013-10-16T15:53:57.435-07:002013-10-16T15:53:57.435-07:00"Repeat sales index should be fairly robust t..."Repeat sales index should be fairly robust to changes in the sales mix"<br /><br />Genuine question - how does this work if the repeat sales are generally more higher end than normal? Wouldn't the results be over-weighted to the higher end? reasonfirsthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02787594578611685612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-57980528912671779622013-10-16T15:47:48.740-07:002013-10-16T15:47:48.740-07:00"Obviously their methodology breaks down in a...<i>"Obviously their methodology breaks down in an environment of extreme upward skewing."</i><br /><br />Repeat sales index should be fairly robust to changes in the sales mixcaveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-47700121927593886212013-10-16T15:14:16.529-07:002013-10-16T15:14:16.529-07:00However, I have shown that, once enough of the ske...<i>However, I have shown that, once enough of the skewing is removed, it becomes obvious that prices have actually declined since May.</i><br /><br />info's tip: remove numbers until you like what you see.Introverthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03333045260631104757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-18087341902243964032013-10-16T14:43:17.394-07:002013-10-16T14:43:17.394-07:00"Clearly info's HHV and greaterfool post&..."Clearly info's HHV and greaterfool post's have not been frequent or strident enough to keep the market down."<br /><br />The bankers doing the calculations for the Teranet HPI claim that house prices in Victoria have increased by 4.3% since May 2013. <br /><br />Obviously their methodology breaks down in an environment of extreme upward skewing.<br /><br />Upward skewing is also causing the SFH median to give the false impression that SFH prices have increased since May 2013 as that value is up about 1.4%.<br /><br />However, it isn't difficult to prove that prices have actually decreased since May (by removing some of the skewing).<br /><br />Consider the following 3 groups of areas of Greater Victoria:<br /><br />Expensive (Oak Bay, Saanich East and North Saanich)<br /><br />Less expensive (Esquimalt, Sidney, Colwood, Langford and Sooke)<br /><br />All other areas (Victoria, Vic West, View Royal, Saanich West, Central Saanich, Highlands, Metchosin and Waterfront<br /><br />The SFH 3-month median for each of these 3 groups has declined since the end of May (I will present the exact numbers in another post). <br /><br />Severe upwqard skewing started to rear its ugly head around April of this year. Since then it has been giving the false impression that house prices in Victoria have been increasing. However, I have shown that, once enough of the skewing is removed, it becomes obvious that prices have actually declined since May. <br />infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-43958002724090944092013-10-16T12:33:11.871-07:002013-10-16T12:33:11.871-07:00More condos, coming soon. Who says they aren't...More condos, coming soon. Who says they aren't making more land -- 6.2 prime acres.<br /><br />http://www.timescolonist.com/entertainment/province-puts-james-bay-block-across-from-legislature-on-the-market-1.660945Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00550264432110709714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-82697270994208130452013-10-16T12:30:02.352-07:002013-10-16T12:30:02.352-07:00Prices were down from a year earlier for a seventh...<i>Prices were down from a year earlier for a seventh consecutive month in Victoria (0.5 per cent)</i><br />http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/Calgary+house+price+growth+tops+national+average/9037136/story.htmlPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00550264432110709714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-10381788938630666212013-10-16T11:03:02.916-07:002013-10-16T11:03:02.916-07:00A new series from the Tyee comparing Vancouver wit...A new series from the Tyee comparing Vancouver with San Francisco:<br /><br /><a href="http://thetyee.ca/Series/2013/10/10/Generation-Rent/" rel="nofollow">Generation Rent: Two Cities, Two Directions</a><br /><br />Fascinating infographic.Introverthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03333045260631104757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8665466541424707042013-10-15T21:55:54.748-07:002013-10-15T21:55:54.748-07:00Teranet HPI up slightly again in Victoria m-o-m. h...Teranet HPI up slightly again in Victoria m-o-m. http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx.<br /><br />Clearly info's HHV and greaterfool post's have not been frequent or strident enough to keep the market down.caveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-5490154700663993692013-10-15T16:48:38.790-07:002013-10-15T16:48:38.790-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-26432415227913929002013-10-15T08:29:12.383-07:002013-10-15T08:29:12.383-07:00Tuesday, October 15, 2013 8:15am
MTD October
20...Tuesday, October 15, 2013 8:15am<br /> <br />MTD October<br />2013 2012<br /><br />Net Unconditional Sales: 214 373New Listings: 444 1,068<br />Active Listings: 4,390 4,876<br /><br />Please Note<br />•Left Column: stats so far this month<br />•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year<br />Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-53533252422634849562013-10-15T00:52:02.538-07:002013-10-15T00:52:02.538-07:00Nobel prize winner warns of ‘bubbly’ home prices i...Nobel prize winner warns of ‘bubbly’ home prices in the world caused by the feds policies.<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/101111684<br />Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13848994393105826578noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-23037664563800871502013-10-14T13:34:36.252-07:002013-10-14T13:34:36.252-07:00Re: Bare land stratas
In the experience of one of...Re: Bare land stratas<br /><br />In the experience of one of my best friends, you still have all the bullshit of dealing with a strata. Someone still has to collect fees, make decisions, get things done, deal with the people who want more flowers in the "public" flowerbeds, figure out who is going to get the road cleared if it snows, determine how often the public sprinklers are run, and find out that the builder's house at the end of the lane has been charging the water he uses in his big ass fountain to the strata... etc. Good times. Less work than a condo strata, but definitely had my friend saying "Never again".Renterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01147315895351599236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-77668401213192673132013-10-14T12:43:41.249-07:002013-10-14T12:43:41.249-07:001. Special assessments probably are less common on...<i>1. Special assessments probably are less common on bare land strata. Special assessments have not been rare on condos in Victoria. Special assessments DO happen on bare land strata, especially in relation to sewer/water: http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/homes/story.html?id=3f2e4ca2-7f2b-4919-8e0f-a00f3d0dc1e5</i><br /><br />Condos are not very relevant to this discussion as the person who posted the comment is looking for a detached home. The story in the TC is in regards to a special assessment issued 6+ years ago in the Okanagan.....to date, special assessments have been rare on bare land stratas; however, that might change in the future.<br /><br /><i>If you are frugal and do a lot of DIY it is going to be cheaper to own. Might be different for bare land strata - don't know</i><br /><br />It is different. Bare land stratas have budgets that are only a few lines long. The majority of the bare land strata assessment usually goes to insurance and than you have a couple of smaller items such as hydro for common lighting, snow removal, etc.<br /><br /><i>Stratas can and usually do have rules about the use of your home ie. renting out, exterior colours/improvements, RV or boat parking, fencing, landscaping... often more restrictive than applicable city bylaws.</i><br /><br />As I said, usually no worse than your standard Broadmead, Sunnymead, Dean Park or etc. restrictive covenant.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-81930813491048324612013-10-14T11:21:29.534-07:002013-10-14T11:21:29.534-07:00Hi Marko,
1. Special assessments probably are les...Hi Marko,<br /><br />1. Special assessments probably are less common on bare land strata. Special assessments have not been rare on condos in Victoria. Special assessments DO happen on bare land strata, especially in relation to sewer/water: http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/homes/story.html?id=3f2e4ca2-7f2b-4919-8e0f-a00f3d0dc1e5<br />This blog had a good article on this:<br />http://househuntvictoria.blogspot.ca/2007/04/bare-land-strata.html<br /><br />2. I have reviewed strata fees when running my RE analyzer. I also own. I can tell you from experience that strata fees that I have reviewed are more than my fees to self-manage my properties. <br /><br />If you are frugal and do a lot of DIY it is going to be cheaper to own. Might be different for bare land strata - don't know, but probably not different for anything with shared improvements (townhouses/condos).<br /><br />3. I personally dislike having a strata board deciding what I can and cannot do with my home. Stratas can and usually do have rules about the use of your home ie. renting out, exterior colours/improvements, RV or boat parking, fencing, landscaping... often more restrictive than applicable city bylaws.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188115284116016130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-26493281735124419632013-10-14T10:11:09.671-07:002013-10-14T10:11:09.671-07:00this is pretty cool:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world...this is pretty cool:<br /><br />http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nobel-in-economics-to-eugene-fama-lars-peter-hansen-robert-shiller-1.2053711<br /><br />nanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381966560344774965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-83704274124343622852013-10-14T09:40:35.965-07:002013-10-14T09:40:35.965-07:00Could some more rational soul make a case for or a...<i>Could some more rational soul make a case for or against strata-titled detached homes?</i><br /><br />1. <i>the stata fee will always go up every single year.</i><br /><br />Incorrect. The majority of bare land strata’s rarely increase fees. I've seen some where the fees have been constant for 10+ years.<br /><br />2. <i>Strata can impose special assessments. Strata rules can be a pita. Strata fees are in excess of what you can expect to pay for self managing.</i><br /><br />Correct, but rare to date on bare land stratas. Mostly incorrect, bare land stratas rarely have rules that affect the use of your property. When they do it is usually no worse than a Broadmead covenant on title for example. Incorrect, the vast majority of bare land stratas are actually self managed. <br /><br />Is freehold better? Yes. I wouldn't take lightly to buying into a bare land strata for other rational reasons (who pays down the road when services need servicing underneath the strata corporation owned lane?, etc...)<br /><br />However, reality is most brand new developments in the core are going to be bare land strata going forward (For example, Cadboro Heights is bare land strata). When you build a bare land strata the access to the development does not have to comply to city road widths; therefore, you can get more lots in. In most situations it is not feasible anymore for developers to incur the cost of a proper city road into the development as it would eat up lots.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-6371652340311453382013-10-14T08:58:41.309-07:002013-10-14T08:58:41.309-07:00Strata can impose special assessments. Strata rule...Strata can impose special assessments. Strata rules can be a pita. Strata fees are in excess of what you can expect to pay for self managing.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188115284116016130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-90077560760299273162013-10-14T02:52:45.666-07:002013-10-14T02:52:45.666-07:00for strata-title detached homes, let me try,
the ...for strata-title detached homes, let me try,<br /><br />the stata fee will always go up every single year.<br /><br />it's your money, do whatever you like.<br /><br />V小瘋_https://www.blogger.com/profile/00777917371355628428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-37253608832016528872013-10-13T23:54:21.428-07:002013-10-13T23:54:21.428-07:00This looks like the right place to find strong opi...This looks like the right place to find strong opinions....<br /><br />We are shopping for a detached home in Victoria and during the process I have been eliminating all "bare land strata" listings from consideration. The wife asked me why I was doing that and I realised I had no rational argument, it was an intuitive dislike of paying a huge amount of money for something which I perceived as having strings attached.<br /><br />Could some more rational soul make a case for or against strata-titled detached homes?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-62945088949732810842013-10-13T22:03:52.426-07:002013-10-13T22:03:52.426-07:00"Yeah I can take a look at the yearly data..&..."Yeah I can take a look at the yearly data.."<br /><br />Much appreciated. <br />infohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848148105386213925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-35475541834394257832013-10-13T16:52:25.012-07:002013-10-13T16:52:25.012-07:00How much supply is there of each?
Supply-side, w...<i>How much supply is there of each?</i> <br /><br />Supply-side, we have the highest vacancy rate in 20 years in addition to thousands of new condos and houses being built (<a href="http://vibrantvictoria.ca/construction-projects-list/" rel="nofollow">these are some of the 4+ story bldgs</a>). To top it off, three rental-built alone are about to add just under another 400 units; Hudson mews, the Q, and Heron's Landing. Also take note how many homes are sitting vacant, the next time you are surfing MLS.<br />Demand-wise we’re <a href="http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=2820113&pattern=282-0100..282-0121&tabMode=dataTable&srchLan=-1&p1=-1&p2=31" rel="nofollow">still losing jobs (Friday's Stat Can release),</a> rates have pulled forward residual buyers, tougher mortgage rules, and many who used to buy second homes here are now buying elsewhere.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00550264432110709714noreply@blogger.com