tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post6328072854801956658..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Monday market updateHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger102125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-61399936140542858572011-09-24T17:02:05.723-07:002011-09-24T17:02:05.723-07:00"Yes, land is scarce in Victoria, but it isn&..."Yes, land is scarce in Victoria, but it isn't everywhere else in Canada."<br /><br />Scarcity means intensity of use. <br /><br />Is land in Victoria used more intensively than in, say, Halifax? I would say it isn't.<br /><br />When the ground level parking lots disappear in Victoria, you can start talking about scarcity.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8921495845266553642011-09-24T11:13:48.265-07:002011-09-24T11:13:48.265-07:00Just Jack said on Sept 23.
“Even prices in the No...Just Jack said on Sept 23. <br />“Even prices in the North Shore are higher than Victoria and living in the North Shore is like living in a car wash. I would think that most places in the Fraser Valley have higher prices than Victoria too. So the island affect is a big offsetter to our mild climate.”<br /><br />In response, I moved from the west side of North Vancouver District to Victoria in 2008 and replaced my house built in 1953 with a house in Gonzales built in 1983 for $250,000 less. The square footage was almost the same. My property tax bill is lower and my heating cost is down by 1/3. For a while I lived on the South Surrey boundary of White Rock where I could have easily bought a comparable home for an equivalent price. I was surprised when my car insurance went up $60 for the South Surrey/ White Rock location compared to the premium I paid on the North Shore. When I came to Victoria my car insurance went down by over $400. I considered whether to buy in Victoria or White Rock but finally decided upon Victoria. The water frontage here is is far superior. Since moving I enjoy sailing in the Gulf and San Juan Islands close by and rainfall is 24 inches versus 75 inches plus on the North Shore. The real change is in the hours of sunshine. It took me over eight months before I found a satisfactory house in Victoria. The problem with buying a single family home in Victoria is that there were too many poorly renovated very old homes with suites. I did not want a suite. South Surrey/White Rock has a plentiful supply of newer homes but lacks the character of Victoria. I was also amazed by the heavy snowfalls in White Rock compared to Gonzales and Oak Bay.Bill Rimmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02464700865315265478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91072780859738831492011-09-24T09:43:30.978-07:002011-09-24T09:43:30.978-07:00"Yes, actually. Let's say 65% of Canada&#...<i>"Yes, actually. Let's say 65% of Canada's 34 million people agree that Victoria is an attractive place to live. In ten years, 65% of 40 million people should agree.<br /><br />65% of 40M is greater than 65% of 34M."</i><br /><br />65% of whatever number you conjure up is still 65%. <br /><br />The argument that we're running out of land has been used for 30 years to justify sky-high prices. It's not true. We're consistently making more land, even in the core, through density and subdivision. <br /><br />Furthermore, Victoria has grown exponentially, it's housing stock has consistently, and at times outpaced it's household formation rate. So while you want to make a clever argument that 65% of 10 is a bigger number than 65% of 9, you conveniently ignore that available housing grew/grows too. The supply demand ratio hasn't gotten consistently worse with time in other words, which is what you'd need to have happen to point to a fundamental upwards pressure on pricing.<br /><br />While some purists still see Victoria as Saanich East, West, Oak Bay, Victoria and Esquimalt... many Canadians see "Victoria" as the area on the VREB map, which contains several thousand acres of yet-to-be developed housing-suitable land stock. Heck, Westhills alone has over 4 year's worth of planned supply if it was the only source of new housing for new household formation in the entire CRD.<br /><br />Don't get me wrong, I love Victoria, it's a beautiful and desirable location... but I'm unwilling to gloss over the sales volume of SAD lights in the winter-time to justify out-of-whack property prices that have little to do with household formation numbers or supply demand ratios. <br /><br />The next post is dedicated to the silly argument that Victoria is somehow unique and therefore should support forever rising house prices.HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-54058820129933273362011-09-24T09:21:28.352-07:002011-09-24T09:21:28.352-07:00So, yes, HHV, in the future there will be more peo...<i>So, yes, HHV, in the future there will be more people who find Victoria attractive than before.</i><br /><br />That is not the same as more people willing to pay an ever increasing premium to live here. Yes, land is scarce in Victoria, but it isn't everywhere else in Canada. The idea that that price premium will increase forever just because Canada's population continues to increase is not very logical.<br /><br /><i>Not many Canadian cities have mild climates. Even fewer have mild climates situated in a rain shadow.<br /></i><br /><br />Some people like mild climates. Some people think they like mild climates because it sounds good and they've never known anything else. Having grown up in the interior I know that the winters there, with sunny days and snow are far nicer than the endless rain in Victoria. The summers too are fantastic, with nice dry heat and plenty of lakes. This summer in Victoria was not exactly a model of summer weather. It was shit rain and cold for half of it.<br />The only thing that Victoria does better is the Spring. Springtime in the interior is ugly and grey as the snow melts. Here it is green and that's what people latch on to.<br />That's nice, but the other seasons are just better in a lot of places. <br /><br />As an aside, my parents came down a while ago for a visit. Their comment at the end "15 years ago Victoria was a nice quaint little island town. Now it's like any other city, loud and clogged with traffic". <br />As Victoria densifies, some of its charm goes with it, and people start looking for that small west coast town spirit somewhere else (Parksville, Qualicum Beach, etc).Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91284963471385396852011-09-24T06:19:39.352-07:002011-09-24T06:19:39.352-07:00Introvert: regarding how nice it is here - shhhh!
...Introvert: regarding how nice it is here - shhhh!<br /><br />Patriotz: regarding landlords losing money every month - shhhh!<br /><br />These secrets are best kept close.<br /><br />Renting rules and is comparatively cheap in this beautiful city.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84400260670461392011-09-24T05:16:17.763-07:002011-09-24T05:16:17.763-07:00Victoria is "different." Here's why....<i>Victoria is "different." Here's why.</i><br /><br />But interest rates are the same as in, say, Halifax, so why should price/rent be different?<br /><br />None of you factors change the fact that landlords in Victoria are losing money every month.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8916189665530972912011-09-24T05:12:45.595-07:002011-09-24T05:12:45.595-07:00"Homes shouldn't necessarily be considere..."Homes shouldn't necessarily be considered investments"<br /><br />Well of course my whole approach to RE is treating it as an investment. Would I buy a company with a P/E of 30 and no prospects of earnings growth? No, and nobody else would either. Nor would I buy a house with a price/rent of 300 and no prospect of growth in real rents.<br /><br />Perhaps you are using the popular definition of "investment" which is "something I'm sure I'll be able to sell for more than I paid for it". That belongs to the Beanie Baby crowd.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-48595183095812834412011-09-24T04:38:36.554-07:002011-09-24T04:38:36.554-07:00Noticed a sale on my PCS a couple of days ago: 144...Noticed a sale on my PCS a couple of days ago: 1440 Mt Doug Cross. Went for $690,000 with a BC assessment of $946,000.<br /><br />I haven't seen a sale that much under assessed since the five month recession we had in late '08 - early '09.S-Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387040076158433704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-66749650189463034422011-09-24T04:37:03.648-07:002011-09-24T04:37:03.648-07:00Noticed a sale on my PCS a couple of days ago: 144...Noticed a sale on my PCS a couple of days ago: 1440 Mt Doug Cross. Went for $690,000, with a BC assessment of $946,000.<br /><br />I haven't seen a sale like that since the five month recession we had in late '08 - early '09.S-Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387040076158433704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-61944902761053938382011-09-24T03:08:39.446-07:002011-09-24T03:08:39.446-07:00So... Victoria must have more retirees than the re...So... Victoria must have more retirees than the rest of the country? Just checking; that's the argument, right?jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-76585384370645029802011-09-24T01:12:57.206-07:002011-09-24T01:12:57.206-07:00Sure, Victoria has always been more expensive than...Sure, Victoria has always been more expensive than most of Canada. But weather has had nothing to do with the post 2003 run up in prices. We can thank the low interest rates and CMHC backing for that. <br /><br />Regardless, I think we've heard this before. Hows it working out for them now?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.sdrealtypros.com/san-diego-info/weather/" rel="nofollow">sunny San Diego</a>Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15206505328540811613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-38879860742435998812011-09-24T00:02:36.623-07:002011-09-24T00:02:36.623-07:00Victoria is "different." Here's why...Victoria is "different." Here's why.<br /><br />Not many Canadian cities have mild climates. Even fewer have mild climates situated in a rain shadow.<br /><br />Vancouver is certainly mild, but it pours (double the rain of Victoria: Wikipedia). Same with most other cities on or near the West coast. Mild, but very wet.<br /><br />Some say the Maritimes are pretty mild. Yes, but not as mild as Victoria. Halifax's average low in January/February is around -8. Victoria's is around +3. That's 11 degrees of difference. And Halifax encounters the odd tropical storm. Do we? Nope.<br /><br />The big thing is that, if you want to stay in Canada, live in a very mild climate without the usual concomitant torrential rain, and have it be of a reasonable size and population, then Victoria is basically your best option.<br /><br />This is in stark contrast to the United States, where cities meeting the mild-and-populous criteria are plentiful.<br /><br />Certainly in the context of Canada, Victoria is "different."<br /><br />Now then, this is HHV's cue to protest and argue that we're the "same."Introverthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03333045260631104757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-13816032246689053102011-09-23T23:16:45.096-07:002011-09-23T23:16:45.096-07:00Is there suddenly more people who find Victoria at...<em>Is there suddenly more people who find Victoria attractive than before?</em><br /><br />Yes, actually. Let's say 65% of Canada's 34 million people agree that Victoria is an attractive place to live. In ten years, 65% of 40 million people should agree.<br /><br />65% of 40M is greater than 65% of 34M.<br /><br />So, yes, HHV, in the future there will be more people who find Victoria attractive than before.<br /><br />And last I checked, Victoria's core municipalities are out of land. So housing supply will more or less remain constant forever.<br /><br />Let's put it all together: demand in the long term is on a slight upward trajectory (in terms of raw numbers of Canadians finding Victoria attractive) + unchanging long-term housing supply = happy Victoria homeowners/investors.*<br /><br />*Provided you didn't "buy at the top," or do a bunch of dumb things, yada, yada, yada.Introverthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03333045260631104757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-10245508822413460032011-09-23T21:41:06.615-07:002011-09-23T21:41:06.615-07:00Kelowna and other smaller cities are falling faste...Kelowna and other smaller cities are falling faster because their economies are focused on construction and real estate. Their manufacturing bases long eroded, RE filled the void, for a time. Now the bills are coming in and no buyers. Welcome to BC's interior, Canada's real estate investment crash ground zero.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-5560849620043485482011-09-23T16:33:25.921-07:002011-09-23T16:33:25.921-07:00If our market follows what happened in the USA. No...If our market follows what happened in the USA. Not maybe to the same degree, but the direction in prices. <br /><br />The biggest hits were felt in retirement areas that were also overbuilt with condominiums.<br /><br />One of the things I've noticed about Victoria is that the builders were building properties that were profitable for them. Small condominiums and Mcmansions.<br /><br />Where's the middle? <br /><br />You can live in a newer one-bedroom condo in Victoria City or a newer $900,000 home.<br />There is a BIG market segment missing here. And I think that is really going to hurt Victoria's economy for a long time into the future. It just seems that families are not welcome in the City.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-57856376538510802182011-09-23T16:21:09.320-07:002011-09-23T16:21:09.320-07:00I don't think the real estate board considers ...I don't think the real estate board considers double ends/Dual agency situations as a bona fide conflict of interest or they would stop the practice.<br /><br />But, I would agree with the poster, that if you're a newbie to real estate, you're probably going to need help. That doesn't have to be another real estate agent, it could just be someone with more experience. <br /><br />Yes, a lot of things can be physically wrong with a house, but the agent can't help you with that. And your lawyer will help with the purchase agreement. So, I think someone who has bought and sold before, can handle most purchases themselves.<br /><br />Of course there are exceptions and some people need help.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24580803177292371962011-09-23T16:11:42.054-07:002011-09-23T16:11:42.054-07:00I've been wondering why Kelowna, up island, an...I've been wondering why Kelowna, up island, and Victoria have been the weakest markets across the country lately. Any thoughts?<br /><br />There are theories floating around that the nearly-dead cities may see bigger drops (no pun intended). Victoria also has one of the largest populations (%-wise) at or very near retirement, coupled with one of the smaller youth buyer groups. And the research I've read shows retirees become sellers of homes. What's more, the 3 regions I listed above get but a teeny fraction of international immigrants that are helping to buffer other regions. For some reason, unlike me, it's not their cup of tea. I wuv Victoria ~ which is why I don't believe it could fall further than say Saskaboon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-44560058550909555752011-09-23T16:10:08.185-07:002011-09-23T16:10:08.185-07:00I would agree that there is a premium paid for cit...I would agree that there is a premium paid for cities with mild climates. However, the mild climate of Victoria is mostly offset by its location on an island.<br /><br />South Surrey-White Rock also has a mild climate like Victoria. That's one of the many reasons why prices are higher in South Surrey - White Rock than they are here.<br /><br />Even prices in the North Shore are higher than Victoria and living in the North Shore is like living in a car wash.<br /><br />I would think that most places in the Fraser Valley have higher prices than Victoria too. So the island affect is a big offsetter to our mild climate.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-82948193655276089702011-09-23T15:54:54.268-07:002011-09-23T15:54:54.268-07:00a simple man... I've had more than a few winte...a simple man... I've had more than a few winters away over the years. I don't dispute that Victoria has almost always been more pricey than the majority of cities in Canada when it comes to local real estate values, but I do find it laughable that there is anything fundamental pointing to an increase in the pricy-ness over time. <br /><br />Is there suddenly more people who find Victoria attractive than before?HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-13553624216867330922011-09-23T15:17:35.836-07:002011-09-23T15:17:35.836-07:00***note that I said relative premium, as in if the...***note that I said relative premium, as in if the rest if Canada drops 30% then so should Victoria, but Victoria will still be slightly more after the crash, because it is just so darn nice here. But the crash will happen here and it will be huge.<br /><br />HHV - reserve judgment until after your first winter away.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-34480249436994486522011-09-23T13:54:36.157-07:002011-09-23T13:54:36.157-07:00The notion that Victoria should command an increas...The notion that Victoria should command an increasing premium is laughable...HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-11638565702097517742011-09-23T13:21:59.782-07:002011-09-23T13:21:59.782-07:00Simple Man/Introvert:
I think you are saying 2 di...Simple Man/Introvert:<br /><br />I think you are saying 2 different things here. <br /><br />1. Victoria will always be at a premium (Simple)<br /><br />2. This premium will continue to increase(Introvert)<br /><br />Agree with 1 but not 2 as I don't think Victoria will become increasingly nicer.reasonfirsthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02787594578611685612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-67100947408479959572011-09-23T13:12:48.310-07:002011-09-23T13:12:48.310-07:00@Mindset: "I disagree with SweetRealtor on lo...@Mindset: "I disagree with SweetRealtor on low-balling overpriced homes. High prices usually indicate seller greed or a selling agent that 'bought' a listing and set an unrealistic seller expectation. Although an overpriced home may move on price, the end result is rarely a good deal or pleasant interaction. "<br /><br />I'm not sure what you disagree with me about. That it's ok to low ball an overpriced home? That the agent should talk to the seller and try to be a voice of reason in these circumstances? <br /><br />I don't think recommending people use the listing agent is a wise approach. Double ends/Dual agency situations are a bona fide conflict of interest and one of the most, if not the most, litigious aspects of real estate. <br /><br />A lot of sellers already know they are overpriced. They just don't want to "give it away." It often takes some time on the market and getting feedback from other agents and buyers to finally persuade the sellers to get real. <br /><br />Adventurous buyers, willing to offer fair value on an overpriced listing, will be rewarded while others wait for the price drops. And having a good buyer agent in your corner will make a difference.<br /><br />And fair value is not 7-10% below market value, it is market value.Sweetrealtorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11643504502534685881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24774548396228637262011-09-23T13:09:18.336-07:002011-09-23T13:09:18.336-07:00Introvert - I agree with you - it is nice here and...Introvert - I agree with you - it is nice here and people will always pay a relative premium for that.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-7932243384565269032011-09-23T13:01:51.261-07:002011-09-23T13:01:51.261-07:00My favourite part of the "Buyers’ market take...My favourite part of the "Buyers’ market takes hold" article is:<br /><br /><em>Owning residential real estate in our very appealing corner of Canada cannot help but be a good investment in the long term.</em><br /><br />Indeed. Victoria is appealing and therefore "different" than lots of other places in Canada. Homes shouldn't necessarily be considered investments, but if one does consider a home an investment then a Victoria home is a more preferable long-run investment than a home in almost any other Canadian city.<br /><br />True, "buying at the top" is not wise, so buying a Victoria home today isn't likely a genius investment move. But, after the market does correct (as most agree it will), the likelihood of future price gains, in the long-term, is always stronger in Victoria than in most other places in Canada. Because it's really nice here.Introverthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03333045260631104757noreply@blogger.com