tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post6647984241360634520..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: First-time-buyer delusionHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-16306659688025500952009-11-25T09:50:46.776-08:002009-11-25T09:50:46.776-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03610949355592602680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64908037968482359342009-11-25T09:50:46.775-08:002009-11-25T09:50:46.775-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03610949355592602680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-27478278543012719342009-11-24T23:29:29.957-08:002009-11-24T23:29:29.957-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09346930576783119028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15662082689278387602009-11-24T18:58:47.041-08:002009-11-24T18:58:47.041-08:00Bitterbear,
That was so exceptionally well writte...Bitterbear,<br /><br />That was so exceptionally well written (for a blog post anyway), that I had to double check by dumping a few of your sentences in google to make sure it wasn't somebody else's wise words you were 'borrowing'. I'm glad to report, it's all you :)<br /><br />Thanks for sharing what you are seeing and hearing in your circles. You must be a bit older than me, because pretty much all my friends in their mid thirties are now fully (financially) committed to their super-debt boxes.<br /><br />In my circle, most are still ignorant of what's really going on under the MSM carpet of dillusion. They still ask me when I'm going to buy every other time I see them. Recently one of them finally reached his ah-hah moment in regards to the yellow metal, but most still haven't clued in, and likely won't until it hits them personally.<br /><br />That said, some of them who work in government did express some concern over the recent (300) lay offs.<br /><br />At work, there's 2 or 3 guys who do know what's going on, but when you place that against a few dozen others wearing blind folds or hiding behind the flimsy shield of hope and misplaced optimism, it paints a picture to me that this hasn't even really hit home to most in my (thirty something's) age group.<br /><br />Mr.4AMMr.4AMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06939742036749753862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-9055719379334744412009-11-24T10:06:49.216-08:002009-11-24T10:06:49.216-08:00I'll inject anything even marginally intellige...I'll inject anything even marginally intelligent to keep HHV going. This is my therapy, pretty cheap therapy at that! <br /><br />There are people on this blog far more intelligent than I am with regards to housing and financial matters, so I'll limit my comments to my own perceptions.<br /><br />What I see happening out there is a psychological shift. People in my office are speaking quietly of their financial burdens and stresses. I'm hearing about job losses and cuts, people trying to return to work before they are ready in order to keep their jobs, people having to rent out rooms in their houses, people cutting expenses, foregoing holidays and other luxury items, Christmas depression in November etc. <br /><br />On a professional level, governments have slashed mental health services to the point where I do not think we will recover and I no longer feel I can provide the quality of service my profession requires of me. Whole programs have disappeared to the point where there are no longer support services to whom I can refer patients. So where does that leave my patients? With a diagnosis and no way to get it treated. Colleagues of mine with Ph.D.'s have lost their jobs, many others are simply going where they can practice better patient care.<br /><br />People often present to me with undifferentiated anxiety and part of my job is to help them change. Change often requires a moment of agonizing clarity, of raw insight devoid of any delusion or defensiveness. <br /><br />Translated to the macrocosm, I see this starting. More people are feeling not just disillusioned but deceived and defrauded by the media, by banks, by brokers and agents, by politicians, friends and family. There is a collective undercurrent of anger developing among those of my generation (sandwich and GenXers)that is manifesting in a '60's style rebellion against consumerism, capitalism and big government. <br /><br />People in my office are talking with wistful longing about simple living, reducing consumption, victory gardens and raising chickens. Buying second hand is a concept transformed from shameful to socially responsible. Off-the-curb shopping and dumpster diving are becoming "hip".<br /><br /> Interesting times, indeed. How this plays out on a grand scale will be interesting. I wonder what sociologists will say about it in a hundred year's time. Perhaps we'll see a social polarization between owners and renters, the haves and the have nots, consumers and recyclers, who knows? Maybe my generation will be described as idealists born of the greasy ashes of fattened materialists. (we won't be known for our poetry anyway!)<br /><br />I see a sort of fundamentalist religion with a right wing capitalist twist taking root vs the largely silent atheist or agnostic social drop outs, living in rented digs and cultivating community gardens on boulevards. Politically, I see room for a watered down Canadian version of Barak Obama (I don't think Elizabeth May will be it). I see the media becoming tools of the government to an even larger degree with "underground" presses inciting social revolution. From a psychological financial perspective (psychofinancial perspective?) I see distrust of the banking system on a massive scale and people buying tangible assets like bullion, metals and gemstones that they bury in coffee cans in the backyard. Bartering will become an artform, homelessness a rite of passage and pensions a pipe dream. Shedding the collective fat will be painful but cathartic.<br /><br /> <br />OK enough said.Bitterbearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00915857231488636746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-63325439008400066642009-11-24T09:31:13.886-08:002009-11-24T09:31:13.886-08:00Did Roger really sell at peak?
He may have thou...Did Roger really sell at peak? <br /><br />He may have thought he was at the time, but I feel he spent the last couple of years (on this blog) watching in disbelief as prices continued to rise, and the predicted correction/crash never materialized. <br /><br />There may have been many good motives for him to get out--but if one of the chief reasons was an attempt to time the market and maximize financial return, I expect he missed the mark....which probably accounts for a lot of his posted frustration over the years. <br /><br />I've always hoped Roger would tell us more about the experience--was it worth the hassle of selling and re-entering life as a renter etc? Is he ever haunted by the idea that getting back into a house will end up costing him more than if he had just held tight?chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05500718839857449284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-1784517199071350162009-11-23T23:11:55.259-08:002009-11-23T23:11:55.259-08:00A big fear of mine is that HHV will buy before we ...A big fear of mine is that HHV will buy before we do and close this site down. I need this site to keep me sane through all the insanity. <br /><br />I don't post much but I read all the time. I'm still patiently waiting. I think we'll be the last hold outs. :-)<br /><br />Miss your posts Roger. <br /><br />S2Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-20736735283558926112009-11-23T18:48:34.623-08:002009-11-23T18:48:34.623-08:00Marko said: "This blog would be tremendously ...Marko said: <i>"This blog would be tremendously helped by someone who bought in 2003 or prior and is selling now because the feel the market is overvalued"</i><br /><br />I bought in 2004 & sold in 2008 for that precise reason. Should I have waited longer to sell? I felt the risk was too high, but I underestimated government insanity... er.. I mean stimulus (debt) intervention, ridiculous low interest rates and turning a blind eye to what will slap us in the face eventually. Still I have no regrets. <br /><br />Since then <a href="http://www.chpc.biz/images/OCT09-Value_Gold.jpg" rel="nofollow">guess where I invested my money</a> so as to continue to stay ahead of the continuing increasing real estate prices (or from my perspective, DECREASING real estate values)?<br /><br />I still don't get what people don't get about it? I mean seriously, <a href="http://66.38.218.33/LFgif/au00-pres.gif" rel="nofollow">how many charts do you have to see</a>, before people accept the reality that <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4HS.PqmM8ho&pos=2" rel="nofollow">cash is trash</a>, that <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1332936523&play=1" rel="nofollow">stocks are way over valued</a> and that <a href="http://americacanada.blogspot.com/2009/07/cmhc-and-our-government.html" rel="nofollow">real estate will be trending downwards in 2011+</a>?<br /><br />These days, everything financial is interconnected. To look at asset type A without considering the macro-economics that implicate its current, past and future value, is risky business.<br /><br />Also for the record, PM's are nowhere near a bubble now or even in the next couple of years. So long as government insanity prevails, PM's will keep going up. Sadly, or rightly so, the same can't be said for real estate prices.<br /><br />Mr.4AMMr.4AMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06939742036749753862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-87389940626640675502009-11-23T18:35:30.256-08:002009-11-23T18:35:30.256-08:00Marko,
The "sold at the peak guy" was R...Marko,<br /><br />The "sold at the peak guy" was Roger. He's taking a well-deserved break or has left us for good; I'm not sure which.<br /><br />I disagree with the 30% remarks. Sure, some commentators seem to think that's where we are headed (I'm not one of them BTW), but lots don't make predictions at all. <br /><br />There's room for all view points. I for one am glad yours is around.HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-40045478689118377832009-11-23T18:07:38.670-08:002009-11-23T18:07:38.670-08:00I don't understand how you people can be so pa...I don't understand how you people can be so patient. It seems like a never ending flurry of parroted CMHC, VREB, and CREA press releases. It's frustrating to sit though main stream media stories and then friends and family treating you like some idiot for not wanting to buy a house.<br /><br />I don't debate very well and it leaves me biting my tongue very often when talking face to face about real estate. I guess that's why I enjoy the HHV postings and discussions. It's refreshing to hear others who share your general viewpoint.SuperBobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06852993834074206873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-56480192887260584492009-11-23T17:00:30.187-08:002009-11-23T17:00:30.187-08:00"HHV may just decide to shut down the blog le..."HHV may just decide to shut down the blog leaving bears with no source of contrarian opinion for Victoria real estate."<br /><br />- Anyone who doesn't agree with a 30% correction gets slammed pretty hard on this blog, why would anyone stick around? (Mind you some people have had pretty stupid contrarian opinions) <br /><br />- Too many "buy gold" members. Ruins in the blog. <br /><br />- People seem to "know" as to where real estate and the stock market are going. Everyone has extremely good rational as to where they "know" the market is headed; however, I don't recall anyone buying an old place in Jan for $330,000 and reselling now for $400,000?<br /><br />- This blog would be tremendously helped by someone who bought in 2003 or prior and is selling now because the feel the market is overvalued.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-54019748304834719682009-11-23T12:43:43.581-08:002009-11-23T12:43:43.581-08:00Kind of reminds me about talking to my mother in l...Kind of reminds me about talking to my mother in law when she tells us to buy, buy, buy. She only gets her information from the TC, so she doesn't realize the risks. Many people of that generation can't seem to grasp the unaffordability of this market. If you show how much a person at the same job they used to have earns now a days, they just get mad.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-82916347334923098742009-11-23T12:31:12.691-08:002009-11-23T12:31:12.691-08:00noob goldberg on Calculated Risk wrote the followi...noob goldberg on Calculated Risk wrote the following story: <a href="http://www.hoocoodanode.org/node/8436" rel="nofollow">link</a><br /><br /><i>I tried to explain to my mother-in-law that the price of a home is dictated by a combination of principle plus interest charges, and that in low interest-rate periods the result is simply higher principle: i.e., higher home prices. During periods of high interest rates, the purchase price of a home is less, because the total monthly debt maintenance--principle plus interest--is much higher. When interest rates are at 15-20%, it represents a period where home purchase prices would be at their lowest, and risk for appreciating interest rates would similarly be low. In effect, the least risky period to purchase a home. The opposite, during period of low interest rates, is also true.<br /><br />Which makes the current environment the riskiest period in history to purchase a home. But all I got back from her was a blank stare. </i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-66768884549288905092009-11-23T11:47:27.825-08:002009-11-23T11:47:27.825-08:00If you think house prices can keep climbing you ar...If you think house prices can keep climbing you are not facing reality.<br /><br />Take a look at the graphs and data in this report.<br /><br /><a href="http://americacanada.blogspot.com/2009/10/canadian-charts-on-housing.html" rel="nofollow">Mortgage Debt in Canada</a><br /><br />In particular the following:<br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_0YOsyi5WbLY/StulL5E-keI/AAAAAAAAAOw/FStKq4lBvLU/s1600-h/Canada+-Residential+Mortgage+Debt+-+Salaries+and+Wages+compare.JPG" rel="nofollow">Mortgage Debt Exceeds Income</a><br /><br /><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_0YOsyi5WbLY/Sttf9lDfa1I/AAAAAAAAAOI/9xBFXBdftWc/s1600-h/Canada+-Residential+Mortgage+Debt+as+percent+of+Salaries+-+current.JPG" rel="nofollow">Ratio of Salaries to Mortgage Debt</a><br /><br />On another note: We only have one bear blog left in Victoria. I see that this site is getting a lot of page views but only a few people are taking the time to post. Readers need to contribute or HHV may just decide to shut down the blog leaving bears with no source of contrarion opinion for Victoria real estate.EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-76342185965847865752009-11-22T21:27:47.589-08:002009-11-22T21:27:47.589-08:00Skeptic - I've been thinking about that Vancou...Skeptic - I've been thinking about that Vancouver Sun editorial. The question in my mind is why was it published.<br /><br />Editorial boards generally publish something that is: (i) in the general public interest; or (ii) brought to the editorial board by an outside party that wishes to have an opinion published.<br /><br />Given that the Sun receives signficant advertising income from the housing sector, one can assume that it was likely the second reason. So then, who would bring the topic to the board? Someone who wants people to be more prudent when buying a house and taking on a mortgage. Could have been HHV and Roger, however I doubt they have access to the Editorial Board. Could be the banks, however they seem to still be on the bandwagon. Could it be the realtors? Not likely, they are drinking the magic potion (and serving).<br /><br />More than likely it was the Bank of Canada, CMHC, or someone else who wants to lower the risk and slowly deflate the bubble. <br /><br />This would be step #1 from a policy perspective - behavioural economics. Change the opinion of the masses - influence the animal spirit at play.<br /><br />Don't want to piss off the spirits though.Animal Spirithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14290032551579947421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-50761230959849858002009-11-22T14:53:59.569-08:002009-11-22T14:53:59.569-08:00Interesting graphs from that mortgage report:
Mor...Interesting graphs from that mortgage report:<br /><br /><a href="http://i48.tinypic.com/rm4u9w.png" rel="nofollow">Mortgage Arrears Rising</a><br /><br /><a href="http://i49.tinypic.com/rj1i4g.png" rel="nofollow">Canadian Mortgage Debt</a>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-77655163960186358642009-11-22T14:41:29.087-08:002009-11-22T14:41:29.087-08:00Stats are now available on Canada's mortgage m...Stats are now available on Canada's mortgage market. You can read the story <a href="http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2009/11/caamps-annual-mortgage-market-report---2009.html" rel="nofollow">here.</a><br /><br />Highlights:<br /><br />- 5,400,000: The number of homeowners with mortgages. <br /><br />- $186 billion: Total estimated new mortgage volume this year (down 14% from 2008). <br /><br />- 27%: Percentage of mortgage holders that got a new mortgage, switched their mortgage, or refinanced in the past 12 months.<br /><br />- 20%: The percentage of mortgage holders with less than 20% equity (required mortgage insurance) <br /><br />- 27%: Chose a variable rate <br /><br />- 47%: Ratio of new purchasers who got mortgages this year with an amortization over 25 years. <br /><br />- 22%: Ratio of people who refinanced mortgages this year with an amortization over 25 years. <br /><br />- 11%: Ratio of people who renewed mortgages this year with an amortization over 25 years. <br /><br />Interesting!!EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-56986317340151469812009-11-22T12:44:50.866-08:002009-11-22T12:44:50.866-08:00"Don't",
Good video from Garth, tha..."Don't", <br />Good video from Garth, thanks for sharing that. Brief and to the point. I think he's right on. Interesting he doesn't sound anywhere nearly as snarky in video as in his blog.<br /><br />Mr.4AMMr.4AMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06939742036749753862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-37431667243622581372009-11-22T12:15:42.734-08:002009-11-22T12:15:42.734-08:00The gang over on the Red Flag Deals forum are havi...The gang over on the Red Flag Deals forum are having a couple of interesting discussions about Canadian real estate. The whole issue of CMHC backstopping the banks and creating a Canadian version of subprime mortgages makes for an interesting read. Here are the links.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/will-bank-call-mortgage-816622/" rel="nofollow">Will the bank call in the mortgage?</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.redflagdeals.com/forums/housing-market-hot-but-will-last-810126/" rel="nofollow">Housing market hot, but will it last?</a>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-85263106031990567512009-11-21T18:45:55.835-08:002009-11-21T18:45:55.835-08:00one also used the term 'slavery' in the co...one also used the term 'slavery' in the conversation.Animal Spirithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14290032551579947421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-65186558595490634462009-11-21T18:45:00.402-08:002009-11-21T18:45:00.402-08:00late night flight back from Vancouver last night. ...late night flight back from Vancouver last night. A couple of gentlemen - hard working types - were talking about house prices in Victoria. One owned a house, mortgage paid. The other - in his mid-fifties - was saying that there was no way that he was going to buy and permamently indebt himself. They were agreeing with each other that houses were far overpriced in Victoria. <br /><br />interesting.Animal Spirithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14290032551579947421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-65667286379576733772009-11-21T17:10:53.012-08:002009-11-21T17:10:53.012-08:00PS $769,000 for 1600 sq/ft in Langford in a wood s...PS $769,000 for 1600 sq/ft in Langford in a wood structure building is a joke. That is close to $500 per sq/ft. You can buy for cheaper in The Falls, Shoal Point etc...Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-45848390669351723782009-11-21T17:04:35.963-08:002009-11-21T17:04:35.963-08:00"Someone is in over their head on Craigslist&..."Someone is in over their head on Craigslist"<br /><br />Don't come to conclusions too quickly. First of all presale deposits at the Aquattro were 5% so their deposit is probably like$40,000. They likely bought at peak market and now the Condo is worth $100,000 less. Why not try to "give away" the $40,000 or just walk away. Developers haven't had much success taking people to court.<br /><br />Lots of people walked away from Reflections and other presale contracts. Not being able to close and not wanting to close are two completely different things. <br /><br />However, it could be that these people just can't close, but they would be kind of dumb to close even if they could. Just walk away from the deposit and move on.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-79331875507808013922009-11-21T16:49:42.514-08:002009-11-21T16:49:42.514-08:00Someone is in over their head on Craigslist
TAKE ...Someone is in over their head on Craigslist<br /><br /><a href="http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/reo/1476612327.html" rel="nofollow">TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR MISTAKE </a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-36018191908144844332009-11-21T14:00:17.842-08:002009-11-21T14:00:17.842-08:00You guys aren't the only ones questioning the ...You guys aren't the only ones questioning the value of the structures themselves. I call oak bay and fairfield "nice neighbourhouds of horrible houses". <br /><br />I went to see one house and it was just awfull. I drove by 1 hour before we were to see it and the windows were all open. I could see from the street that part of the roof was actually collapsing. The roof was so bad it would have been leaking for a long time. I picked out rot and extensive damage under a cheap paint job. All of this in under 2 minutes. I would call this house a push down. We went inside and the mold was so bad that we had to leave as our sinuses were reacting. <br /><br />Some idiot bought it for $820k! And it is on a busy street. Mls # 268968 It was owned by an interior designer, so it was staged to death. Someone fell in love with the furniture, or the single pain windows?omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.com