tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post6929711725372386901..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Market trackingHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-70832192065473792072010-08-16T13:26:20.735-07:002010-08-16T13:26:20.735-07:00Hey Jack: I'm a lovin your posts. Oh, do you...Hey Jack: I'm a lovin your posts. Oh, do you remember the bet?Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-14596664988605670272010-08-16T12:54:10.034-07:002010-08-16T12:54:10.034-07:00Doing the bear dance :) Great posts! Thanks for ...Doing the bear dance :) Great posts! Thanks for the graphs and excellent information again Double-Agent. Correctly interpreted stats really tell the story clearly. To sum it up - the market is falling and will continue this trend for many months to come - as it should.thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-75713882634417076392010-08-16T12:25:45.439-07:002010-08-16T12:25:45.439-07:00Just Jack - That was a great post. Thanks for the...Just Jack - That was a great post. Thanks for the laugh!<br /><br />Marko - You beat me to it this morning. Here are some of the graphs we prepare in our office every Monday.<br /><br />Sales for the last week jumped to 108 from the anemic 78 in the first week of August. <a href="http://i37.tinypic.com/23vm3c9.png" rel="nofollow">click here</a>. You can clearly see that sales are below July levels. Sales can vary from week to week so we calculate a rolling average based on the last 4 weeks of data. The current level sits at 113 <a href="http://i38.tinypic.com/esu89t.png" rel="nofollow">click here</a>. Extrapolating we should probably see about <b>420 sales for August</b>. This is the worst level of sales in this decade!! <a href="http://i34.tinypic.com/20rqo2d.png" rel="nofollow">click here</a><br /><br />New listings are on the usual, seasonal downtrend. Active listings have dropped slightly but remain stubbornly high. <a href="http://i36.tinypic.com/2a8nmde.png" rel="nofollow">click here</a> <br /><br />Sales ratios can tell a lot about a real estate market. The overall months-of-inventory (MOI) has been climbing over the last year and will probably be close to 10 by the end of the month. <a href="http://i38.tinypic.com/zxr2mp.png" rel="nofollow">click here</a><br /><br />Prices are already dropping and I suspect this trend will also continue in light of all the recent media attention.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-41216262305954099532010-08-16T11:46:02.147-07:002010-08-16T11:46:02.147-07:00Where have all the 'buyers' gone.
-as song...Where have all the 'buyers' gone.<br />-as song by Peter, Paul and Mary<br /><br /><br />The numbers may stink for real estate in Greater Victoria - but they are far worse when you break the areas down.<br /><br />This Monday, Greater Victoria had a 6.3 month supply of homes and 7.3 month supply of condos for sale. But, its NOT evenly spread out through the areas. The central core municipalities are swallowing up most of the buyers, while the outer districts have left on a jet plane back to Alberta, never to come back again.<br /><br />The Westshore has 12.75 months of house inventory and an average 58 days on the market. While the city dwellers are oblivious to the changes and merrily smoking "puff the magic dragon" Even when you take out new housing, the Westshore looks like 500 miles of bad road with only 36 homes sales in the last 30 days as compared to 440 listings in the Westshore. So its best not to have a hammer these days.<br /><br />And I'm not just blowin in the wind. Cause these times are a changing and you can go and tell it on the "Bear" Mountain. As most people are soon to realize this land is "not" your land - but the banks.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-27034382099825718052010-08-16T11:37:22.571-07:002010-08-16T11:37:22.571-07:00Tony Joe, former VREB president and RE pumper, mai...Tony Joe, former VREB president and RE pumper, maintains his positive attitude...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=143433409021682&id=361386558485" rel="nofollow">Tony on Facebook</a><br /><br />Interesting to hear that some buyers and sellers are unfazed by recent "media sensationalism". Maybe they don't read the paper or watch TV :>)<br /><br />Funny thing about the media. Just a few months ago they were the realtors' best friend.EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-59445223045645810052010-08-16T11:10:31.630-07:002010-08-16T11:10:31.630-07:00I see the housing market discussion is heating up ...I see the housing market discussion is heating up again over on <a href="http://www.kidsinvictoria.com/forum3/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3734839&PHPSESSID=32beae5e4a2a7b41892c073f5d753441&start=15" rel="nofollow">Kids in Victoria</a>.<br /><br />One of the posters over there named "Marthy Mommy" was good enough to quote me in her recent post. I want to thank her and hope that she posts some of the news articles that I referenced earlier this morning. The readers over there should see what is happening to the real estate markets across Canada. <br /><br />Here is some info about what happened last month in Victoria ...<br /><br />1. July sales were down 44% from July 2009<br />2. July sales were down 16% from June 2010<br />3. In July average prices dropped in all housing categories.<br />- houses were down 5.3 % in one month<br />- condos were down 2.5% in one month<br />- townhouses were down 2.1% in one monthEagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-5018198555431285742010-08-16T10:47:30.820-07:002010-08-16T10:47:30.820-07:00Rhino said: We have completed 9 of 21 business day...Rhino said: <i>We have completed 9 of 21 business days in August. Using Marcos # of 186 sales MTD, that would give a projection of 434 sales for the month of August.</i><br /><br />With prospective buyers on summer vacations or getting their kids ready for "back to school" in September, I suspect that the majority of the RE sales that will occur this month have already happened.DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-90688344578970882022010-08-16T10:35:23.936-07:002010-08-16T10:35:23.936-07:00A Nobel-Winning economist says Canada cannot affor...A Nobel-Winning economist says Canada cannot afford to be complacent about economic turnaround in face of bleak global conditions<br /><br /><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/krugman-warns-canada-not-immune-to-slowdown/article1674000/" rel="nofollow">G&M - Krugman warns Canada not immune</a><br /><br /><i>Canada's shining bank regulatory system cannot be counted on to shield the country from an impending economic buffeting, renowned U. S economist Paul Krugman told the Canadian Bar Association on Sunday.<br /><br />Mr. Krugman said that Canada cannot be complacent in the face of disturbingly bleak global conditions, because Canadians spend too much relative to their household incomes and the country's housing bubble has yet to burst. <br /><br />“Canada is by no means insulated,” he said. “Canadians borrow an awful lot. Savings rates have been very low. Household debt relative to income is very high here.” </i>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-75042506855210731802010-08-16T10:02:08.222-07:002010-08-16T10:02:08.222-07:00It is true that we are 9 of 21 business days in to...It is true that we are 9 of 21 business days in to the month, but it won't be a constant number of sales per day. The beginning of the month is always "top heavy" because of the hangover from the previous month. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the month goes, and then how Sept starts (most likely having a smaller hangover from August then August had from July).Mid2Modhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03980883998707942102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-3025325524117728172010-08-16T09:47:33.075-07:002010-08-16T09:47:33.075-07:00Home buyers, especially first timers, often follow...Home buyers, especially first timers, often follow the herd. If they see a big slowdown in sales they head to the sidelines. What happens to the stragglers when they read today's headlines?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article1674252.html" rel="nofollow">CTV news - House prices forecast to sink further</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadian-home-sales-sink-30/article1674181/" rel="nofollow">G&M - Canadian home sales sink 30%</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.financialpost.com/news/Housing+market+feels+impact+introduction/3403892/story.html" rel="nofollow">Financial Post - Housing market feels impact of HST introduction</a>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-52749675007108439972010-08-16T09:38:25.194-07:002010-08-16T09:38:25.194-07:00We have completed 9 of 21 business days in August....We have completed 9 of 21 business days in August. Using Marcos # of 186 sales MTD, that would give a projection of 434 sales for the month of August.Rhinohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04594599019555787326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-2458414684567899992010-08-16T09:24:04.867-07:002010-08-16T09:24:04.867-07:00Good morning all: Here are my stats from last wee...Good morning all: Here are my stats from last week 9Aug - 15 Aug.<br /><br />SFH<br /><br />Victoria,VicWest,Esquimalt,Oak Bay, Saanich East & Saanch West. Min 2 beds, 2 baths from $375K to $775K.<br /><br />NEW: 23<br />SOLD: 10<br />PC: 21<br />OM: 12<br /><br />The average selling price within the criteria was $550,800. The average original asking price was $587,300 so houses in this range sold for almost 94% of the original asking price.<br /><br />Some notable sales were:<br /><br />2170 Wenman 675K to 580K down 95K<br />2096 Avondale 750K to 645K down 105K<br /><br />From the 10 sold listings, 5 had suites in place and 3 had "excellent" suite potential.<br /><br />Condo's (apartments & townhouses)<br />Price range from $260 to $625K with a min. of two beds.<br /><br />Victoria: most areas (not downtown)<br />OakBay: All<br />Esquimalt:All<br />Saanich East: Most areas<br />Saanich West: Gorge,Tillicum, & Interurban<br /><br />NEW: 23<br />SOLD: 4<br />PC: 15<br />OM: 12<br /><br />Of the four sales, one was a townhouse and three were apartments.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-78473540321582370912010-08-16T09:16:38.911-07:002010-08-16T09:16:38.911-07:00Sales to new listings ratio is still below 40%.
C...Sales to new listings ratio is still below 40%.<br /><br />Current mid-month sales to active listings ratio is 4%. By month-end it should climb to a whopping 9%.<br /><br />Listings remain extremely high at 4250+. <br /><br />Haircuts are everywhere.<br /><br />Bear beers are definitely in order.HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24275649217319215892010-08-16T09:06:33.165-07:002010-08-16T09:06:33.165-07:00I still think we will get to 400 this month! Thin...I still think we will get to 400 this month! Things did pick up a bit little last week, but as you can see by the numbers, it doesn't look good. <br /><br />Month-to-Date Market Statistics<br />Posted by <br />Aug 16 2010<br />Monday, August 16, 2010 8:30am:<br /><br /> MTD August <br /> 2010 2009 <br />Net Unconditional Sales: 186 764 <br />New Listings: 477 1,094 <br />Active Listings: 4,289 3,509Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-82174896314516691872010-08-16T07:24:58.594-07:002010-08-16T07:24:58.594-07:00Wow, things are getting a bit interesting as of l...Wow, things are getting a bit interesting as of late. There are 3 separate bear articles on real estate on the globe and mails top 10 read list right now. Houses selling in Oak Bay are now taking a kicking with 2096 Avondale selling for 80k under bc assessment. $645k for a big 60s house on a 1/4 acre in a nice neighborhood will drop kick the gordon head box market.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-52564260318434028732010-08-15T11:28:47.482-07:002010-08-15T11:28:47.482-07:00Hey, it's an almost balanced article... http...Hey, it's an almost balanced article... http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/08/15/home-sales.htmlLeo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-61530209483145682202010-08-15T11:02:48.886-07:002010-08-15T11:02:48.886-07:00Quite a nice 1967 cathedral entrance style home in...Quite a nice 1967 cathedral entrance style home in Lakehill sold for $475,000. It is at 4040 Hodgson. Good layout,(but only one bath up),with oak hardwood floors, three bedrooms, dining room and eat in kitchen. It is a bright home and could easily accommodate a bach or small one bedroom down. Maybe a similar home will go for $435K in another six months?Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-57480367231256999482010-08-14T12:54:32.015-07:002010-08-14T12:54:32.015-07:00JustWaiting....that is funny. These guys never qu...JustWaiting....that is funny. These guys never quit!Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-51458669253761112622010-08-14T10:41:32.881-07:002010-08-14T10:41:32.881-07:00Sometimes you burst out laughing when you read rea...Sometimes you burst out laughing when you read real estate advertising. Today was one of those days.<br /><br /><a href="http://i37.tinypic.com/sq73nb.png" rel="nofollow">Times Colonist - Emergency Realtor Service - Call 24/7</a><br /><br />Way over the top!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-38591609877408262612010-08-14T10:12:07.544-07:002010-08-14T10:12:07.544-07:00Jsan,
Saw your last comment in HHV's previous...Jsan,<br /><br />Saw your last comment in HHV's previous post. Great stuff. Please repost here so others don't miss it.EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-40109438049462784682010-08-14T09:33:36.477-07:002010-08-14T09:33:36.477-07:00Take a look at this CMHC 2010 mortgage survey clic...Take a look at this CMHC 2010 mortgage survey <a href="http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmhc-schl.gc.ca%2Fen%2Fhoficlincl%2Fmoloin%2Fcosu%2Fupload%2FMCS_2010_EN_W.pdf" rel="nofollow">click here</a><br /><br />Some shocking stats in there but CMHC only sees things through rose coloured glasses. For example:<br /><br /><i> Survey results show that first-time buyers are educating themselves on various mortgage options prior to obtaining a mortgage. A large proportion research terms and conditions (84%), compare the costs of different interest rate scenarios (71%), and check for competitive interest rates (65%).</i><br /><br /><b>So... Over 1/3 don't check for the lowest interest rate on the biggest loan they will ever make!</b><br /><br /><i>According to the survey, a very high proportion of first-time buyers (90%) feel that they made their mortgage decision with a good understanding of the mortgage options available to them, 85% said they had a good understanding of how much mortgage they could afford before buying</i><br /><br /><b>So.. 15% did not have a good understanding of how much mortgage they could afford before buying!</b><br /><br /><i>90% of repeat buyers and 71% of first-time buyers used their own resources for a down payment</i><br /><br /><b> So.. 29% of first time buyers couldn't come up with a down payment. And 10% of repeat buyers couldn't afford to make the downpayment on their next home.</b>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-7315075551428640572010-08-13T22:29:36.277-07:002010-08-13T22:29:36.277-07:00Just Jack: You raise many good points about flaws ...Just Jack: You raise many good points about flaws with reading too much into property assessments. All the houses ob my street were built between 1976 and 1979 ... in the past six years, about half of the houses have been resold. <br /><br />When I compare my neighbours property values online (in January), the properties seem to be fairly assessed. Obviously one block of houses does not represent the entire market, however they are representative of the typical mid-market ($500K to $600K) single family homes in Victoria.<br /><br />This is why I find it so interesting to see what what is happening to the real estate market in my "typical" neighbourhood.DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-62697158240675938642010-08-13T15:54:56.665-07:002010-08-13T15:54:56.665-07:00By using a smaller subset, you are trading quantit...By using a smaller subset, you are trading quantity of data for quality of data. The trouble is that in order to get a reliable estimate you may have to expand the date of sale to about a years worth of data.<br /><br />Since prices have been relatively stable over the year, this should give you a good benchmark to compare the home you are looking to purchase to that of the average home. Then, all you have to decide is whether the home you are looking at is better or worse than the average and by how much 5, 10, 15 percent.<br /><br />The problem with using assessment to value ratios is that you are relying on the opinion of person(s)from the BC Assessment and not knowing when the property was last inspected. And opinions vary from one person to another greatly. Since Victoria has had an explosion in home renovations, I don't find the assessment to value ratios to be reliable.<br /><br />I think you could get a reliable and reasonable value estimate, by looking at the last sale of the most similar home in the neighborhood, even if the sale is a year old. All you would have to do is adjust for the date of the transaction. And this you could do, by comparing the average at the time of the last sale to the current average. To get a reliable average, I'd want quantity over quality, so I would use a short sale period but a larger geographic area of similar property types.<br /><br />You can also get the sale price and date when the property you are looking at last sold from BC Assessment. If the property sold in the last decade and has not changed much, then by comparing averages or medians you should be able to get a clear picture of the property's worth today.<br /><br />If you do all of the above, you should be able to reconcile both a reliable and reasonable estimate of the property's value. <br /><br />Now if you do all of the above for sales over the last quarter and plot the data of house size against price, you will get a nice graph showing the price per square foot for homes. Then all you have to do is masterfully relate the size of the home you're looking at to the price per square foot graph - and bob's your uncle you've got an idea of the property's value.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-51251602382536480632010-08-13T14:05:41.079-07:002010-08-13T14:05:41.079-07:00PS...when I say picked up...I mean like break 400 ...PS...when I say picked up...I mean like break 400 for the month, still down almost 50% from last year.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22251213620902060942010-08-13T14:01:31.779-07:002010-08-13T14:01:31.779-07:00Fair enough, let us wait for the stats on Monday m...Fair enough, let us wait for the stats on Monday morning. I could be wrong.<br /><br />MarkoMarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.com