tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post6955826224733529481..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: An Explanation for the Real Estate BubbleHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger90125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-21601455486585801552015-07-10T03:02:41.955-07:002015-07-10T03:02:41.955-07:00Once you arrive on Victoria Peak you will notice t...<br />Once you arrive on Victoria Peak you will notice two major constructions: The Peak Tower and The Peak Galleria. The Peak Tower is where you arrive if you have chosen to travel via the Peak Tram. The Peak Galleria is the building where you arrive if you have chosen to travel via bus (Hong Kong public bus or the green minibuses). Both buildings house a number of different restaurants and shopping facilities.<a href="www.omj.ca" rel="nofollow">mortgage markham</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04353631043804144809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-52423187522458349422009-04-27T22:04:00.000-07:002009-04-27T22:04:00.000-07:00A quote from that article: "Maybe we should have a...A quote from that article: "Maybe we should have a change of view, thinking that a house is actually a home like they did in the old days. Back then, if you bought a house and sold it, it would be the same price. No one expected the houses to go up in value; they only expected to pay them off."<br /><br />I'm not sure what Old Days they are referring to. My grandparents and my great grandparents bought several houses and made money along the way. Just imagine the development opportunities that existed a way back when.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-73811447190325422982009-04-27T12:50:00.000-07:002009-04-27T12:50:00.000-07:00Medium and lower priced homes in Victoria are sell...Medium and lower priced homes in Victoria are selling and all indications are that it is still a sellers market at these price levels especially in the nicer locations. Many of these buyers look at Victoria as some sort of paradise and are willing to pay huge money for crap houses as long as they can access the debt. So as long as interest rates stay low and credit remains available I have to assume the buyers will be there.<br /><br />For the buyers to back off they have to feel threatened about their financial security. I travelled this weekend to a town which has been hammered by the recession. It was ugly and people there are scared and stressed. This town is 100% the opposite of what I see in Victoria. There is NO recession in Victoria yet; nothing has really changed. So as long as people are not concerned about their jobs, why not buy a place in “paradise” when interest rates are so low? <br /><br />I know their purchase decisions are stupid because I spend the time to study it and understand the longer term financial implications. But I am sure these FTB’s look at their friends and family who have bought homes in the past 20 years (exception being last two) and created financial security through this decision, it appears logical to follow in their footsteps. <br /><br />If long term mortgage rates rise above 6% we will have created a sub-prime crisis in Canada and those who heavily leveraged themselves will likely suffer the same fate as many we have witnessed in the US over the past two years. Salaries and wages are crappy in Victoria and are likely to stay that way, so income growth will not pull these people out of their dilemma. <br /><br />But it takes knowledge and patience to stay out of the market when you have an opportunity to own a house in “paradise”. I do not think those attributes exists amongst most FTB’s of SFH’s in Victoria. So given the low long-term interest rates (which BoC is trying to push even lower) bears will have to wait a lot longer before we will see a real buyers market on entry level homes. But once that buyers market exists, prices will come off hard.<br /><br />(I do not share the "paradise" view of Victoria. It is a beuatiful city, but there are a lot of other places in BC which are as nice to live in as Victoria)Reidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07973559884255280736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-65141472495630091582009-04-27T11:33:00.000-07:002009-04-27T11:33:00.000-07:00"There's so many myths around real estate," says J...<I>"There's so many myths around real estate," says James McKellar, a professor of real property development at York University.<br /><br />"Let's not forget that before the 1980s, the motto was that a home was a money pit. Over a long period of time, housing does not keep pace with inflation. Don't look at it as an investment. A house is a cost. You don't buy a car as a good investment – you buy because you need it."</I>hhvnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-55626957236213669742009-04-27T11:32:00.000-07:002009-04-27T11:32:00.000-07:00The Star confirms what we've been saying all along...<A HREF="http://www.thestar.com/Recession/article/624821" REL="nofollow">The Star</A> confirms what we've been saying all along. <br /><br />Could this be a start of a new paradigm in the way the masses think about RE?hhvnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84761093095211783852009-04-27T11:24:00.000-07:002009-04-27T11:24:00.000-07:00Yes Greg,
Avg price = $550K
Avg SFH square footag...Yes Greg,<br /><br />Avg price = $550K<br />Avg SFH square footage is 2100ish<br />= avg price per SF of $260<br /><br />avg build cost is around $125-$150/SF right now.<br /><br />Avg hours of sunshine 2100<br />Avg price per hour of sunshine to live in Victoria is $260. <br /><br />I love this town, but that sure is one expensive tanning salon.hhvnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-80581932409280592502009-04-27T11:05:00.000-07:002009-04-27T11:05:00.000-07:00HHV, as to your twitter comment on Victoria being ...HHV, as to your twitter comment on Victoria being the best city to live in Canada, how on earth could that be possible with this criteria?<br /><br />"Criteria included what is important to people who live in a city, rather than to tourists, such as income potential, the likelihood of finding a job, housing costs and weather."<br /><br />I kind of like the weather here, but income potential and housing costs are definitely sub standard. Low unemployment rate is temporary result of construction boom that is now over. <br /><br />This is one of the most expensive places to live in Canada. Sheesh.greghttp://www.cheaprealty.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-28465865278188200892009-04-27T10:57:00.000-07:002009-04-27T10:57:00.000-07:00I wonder if speed of listings will pick up or sale...I wonder if speed of listings will pick up or sales will tail off in the next few months? That sales to listings percentage could be considered bullish.... unless it is all concentrated in the below median properties.<br /><br />My PCS is still showing the majority of listings going just under list, and also a few returned listings with big price drops selling quickly.<br /><br />I'm expecting the median and the average to drop again, we'll see what happens...greghttp://www.cheaprealty.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-83812003403323477232009-04-27T10:40:00.000-07:002009-04-27T10:40:00.000-07:00VREB month to date stats: 608 new sales, 1049 new ...VREB month to date stats: 608 new sales, 1049 new listings, 3846 total active listings.<br /><br />Sales to new listings ratio: 58%. <br /><br />I expect no price changes MOM in April.hhvnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-60265662004093496942009-04-27T09:22:00.000-07:002009-04-27T09:22:00.000-07:00Calgary. Lived there. Asphalt-covered shithole. I'...<I>Calgary. Lived there. Asphalt-covered shithole. </I>I've had more than a few close friends move back to Calgary(all were originally from there) over the last couple of years. It's not that they disliked Victoria, it's that they missed aspects of Calgary that Victoria doesn't offer.<br /><br />I'm not sure why people have such a hard time accepting that folks enjoy different cities and areas for different reasons. To each their own.dubnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-28648589674698115632009-04-27T02:58:00.000-07:002009-04-27T02:58:00.000-07:00ForRentin writes: "You must move away from this is...ForRentin writes: "You must move away from this island...and seek out a proper location to settle down in. Here's a list I've come up with:<br /><br />1) Edmonton. Probably one of the nicest towns in Canada other than Victoria.<br />2) Winnipeg. I admit I have not been there but I heard it's great.<br />3) Toronto. High class metropolis. Very liberal too so you can dress weird and read poetry etc.<br />4) Regina. Best prairy town in the world.<br />5) Calgary. Bring a cowboy hat.<br /><br />Either you are on glue or this is brilliant satire. <br /><br />Edmonton. Lived there. Shithole. <br /><br />Calgary. Lived there. Asphalt-covered shithole. <br /><br />Winnipeg. Friends there. Shithole's shithole. <br /><br />Toronto. Been there. You can't compare Victoria to Toronto any more than you can compare the sun to the moon. <br /><br />Regina. Best prairie town is like being the best pimple on my @zz.Art Vandelayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06564450756839952495noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91503470582422870912009-04-27T02:52:00.000-07:002009-04-27T02:52:00.000-07:00@We Are Dave: Why is everyone who disagrees with t...@We Are Dave: Why is everyone who disagrees with the prevailing, ahem, wisdom on these circle-jerks a "bitter realtor"? <br /><br />Are you Kresgin?Art Vandelayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06564450756839952495noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-23116301741448420972009-04-26T22:06:00.000-07:002009-04-26T22:06:00.000-07:00The responsible, productive memebers of society ye...<I>The responsible, productive memebers of society yet again get to pay for the stupidity of the iresponsible.</I>I think that's better described as "oligarchy", as personified by the recently departed Dear Leader south of the border.<br /><br />It's just oligarchy lite now.patriotzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11154064267408955762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-46391585974713899982009-04-26T20:16:00.000-07:002009-04-26T20:16:00.000-07:00Thank you for the info guys. I am by all means a ...Thank you for the info guys. I am by all means a beginner. My natural instinct is to put it all under my mattress, but the iota of common sense I have is kicking me to become aware of the tides.Foodernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-32227836403906671592009-04-26T19:54:00.000-07:002009-04-26T19:54:00.000-07:00Rhino said:
A retail investor trying to buy an in...Rhino said:<br /><br /><I>A retail investor trying to buy an individual corporate bond pays a large premium to what an investment bank would pay.</I>To a large degree this depends who you buy them from. I use TD Waterhouse discount brokerage and the bid/ask spread is not too bad. In small quantities the commission works out to 1% which is better than bond fund MERs.<br /><br />If you are just starting out with bonds there is a good Canadian Website & book by one of Canada's best known fixed income experts.<br /><br /><A HREF="http://inyourbestinterest.ca/" REL="nofollow">In Your Best Interest</A>Rogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08266466833259484873noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-7210830677813197752009-04-26T18:00:00.000-07:002009-04-26T18:00:00.000-07:00"The bears don't want the asset, because its overp..."The bears don't want the asset, because its overpriced and has much further to fall. Its not financing that's the problem."<br /><br />I wasn't suggesting there was any problem. Just an idea that could be floated in 6 months or in 3 years from now. The biggest cost of a house isn't the purchase, it's the financing. It's always good to have a discussion about possibilities and think outside the box.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-66230789376819835112009-04-26T17:41:00.000-07:002009-04-26T17:41:00.000-07:00Fooder,
The bond market is not as transparent as b...Fooder,<br />The bond market is not as transparent as buying equities. Bonds are generally sold in bulk to large investment groups. A retail investor trying to buy an individual corporate bond pays a large premium to what an investment bank would pay. Retail investors usually use a bond fund, and unlike equities the management fee is worth it. <br />The biggest risk to buying longer term bonds right now is inflation. If you get a 5-year bond at 5%, and in year 3 inflation goes to 6%, your stuck with a bad investment. Bond funds that are laddered helps reduce this risk a bit (since they are always buying new bonds). I would recommend the Claymore 1-5 corp ladder (pays about 5%) as it only has a management fee of .25%.Rhinonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-20260752465537069032009-04-26T16:38:00.000-07:002009-04-26T16:38:00.000-07:00Following what you guys are saying, but unaware of...Following what you guys are saying, but unaware of bond markets. I'm waiting on the sidelines taking safe GICs not liking any risk. It sounds like some pretty low risk bonds are available now with 4-6 % returns. Is this something that would need a financial advisor to help with? Or are the bank bonds safe and available through the banks? <br /> <br /> I know this is off housing topic, but it's kinda on topic of what to do while waiting for a house.Foodernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-51436118897653292092009-04-26T14:50:00.000-07:002009-04-26T14:50:00.000-07:00I think the good weather is spuring on the housing...I think the good weather is spuring on the housing boom in this town right now. Also since cruise ship season is here again we'll soon see more out of town buyers who come in on cruise ships and buy condos before leaving again. For this reason I have bought 3 condos for me and one for my wife.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-82928295950689910882009-04-26T10:39:00.000-07:002009-04-26T10:39:00.000-07:00"There are at least 10 people on here that could, ..."There are at least 10 people on here that could, if they got together and chose to, finance the purchase of a house for one of the bears."<br />Not only does the bear not want the house at current prices, whats in it for the financiers? They would have to at least match the banks rate of 3.8% on a 5-year fixed. Seems like an awful return for the risk your taking on. Why not just buy a 5-year grade A corporate bond for a 5% return? Thats the problem right now, govt actions are mispricing risk. In a few years when we get the massive inflation and rates spike your idea would be good.Rhinonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-3208915193798323352009-04-26T10:20:00.000-07:002009-04-26T10:20:00.000-07:00sorry my badsorry my badRobert Reynolds - HMR Insurancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10939128478955272061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-32660472541758922522009-04-26T10:14:00.000-07:002009-04-26T10:14:00.000-07:00I have to agree, I've been holding off buying sinc...I have to agree, I've been holding off buying since the summer 2007, and I'll admit I'm looking, but only for what I'd consider a "good deal". They're still not that easy to find.greghttp://www.cheaprealty.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-56793470250563300322009-04-26T10:00:00.000-07:002009-04-26T10:00:00.000-07:00"There are at least 10 people on here that could, ..."There are at least 10 people on here that could, if they got together and chose to, finance the purchase of a house for one of the bears."<br /><br />The bears don't want the asset, because its overpriced and has much further to fall. Its not financing that's the problem.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-68262199052643002902009-04-26T09:28:00.000-07:002009-04-26T09:28:00.000-07:00"so here is one observation. variable rate mortgag..."so here is one observation. variable rate mortgages are tied to BoC prime, but 5 Year mortgages are tied to Bond markets. if BoC artificially pushes up the price of bonds, then wont 5Y mortgage rates also have to go up?"<br /><br />backwards,metaldwf<br /><br /> bond prices up = yields down.boomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338840051304429905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-49976300701162748752009-04-26T08:56:00.000-07:002009-04-26T08:56:00.000-07:00The old buddy up scenario done a bit of a differen...The old buddy up scenario done a bit of a different way?<br /><br />S2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com