tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post7210848825934182634..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Sept 16 Market UpdateHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger120125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-12652041832327519982015-11-21T02:49:27.196-08:002015-11-21T02:49:27.196-08:00Here is a new Canadian real estate portal movety.c...Here is a new Canadian real estate portal <a href="http://www.movety.com/" rel="nofollow">movety.com</a>. They have MLS listings for Metro Vancouver.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05879799453086574688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-49539122211637799852015-11-21T02:48:01.237-08:002015-11-21T02:48:01.237-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05879799453086574688noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15567825496595546752013-09-23T08:19:03.366-07:002013-09-23T08:19:03.366-07:00With a Monday left at the end of the month I think...With a Monday left at the end of the month I think we might get to 500.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-45139824538548615552013-09-23T08:17:06.706-07:002013-09-23T08:17:06.706-07:00Monday, September 23, 2013 8:00am
MTD
September...Monday, September 23, 2013 8:00am<br /> <br />MTD<br /><br />September 2013 2012<br /><br />Net Unconditional Sales: 354 419<br /><br />New Listings: 874 1,210<br /><br />Active Listings: 4,579 5,025<br /><br />Please Note<br />•Left Column: stats so far this month<br />•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last yearMarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-70744382746350797072013-09-23T07:54:50.053-07:002013-09-23T07:54:50.053-07:00Marko: TREB taking a page from the NAR?Marko: <a href="http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/treb-taking-page-nar" rel="nofollow">TREB taking a page from the NAR?</a>Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-44465547335088866902013-09-22T22:25:38.951-07:002013-09-22T22:25:38.951-07:00It is well documented that the toronto real estate...<i>It is well documented that the toronto real estate board always compares current month numbers (which include deals which will later fall through) to last year's numbers that have already had collapsed deals subtracted. That distorts everything to appear positive and is pretty clear manipulation.</i><br /><br />You have a link to any articles on this topic? When a deal is recorded as pending (unconditional) the odds of it collapsing at that point must be around 1/500? I've seen it only on the rare occasion.<br /><br />I don't see this factor manipulating numbers to a great extent.<br /><br />Maybe it has something to do between sold (completion has occurred) and pending (unconditional, but completion has not occurred)?Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-87990558566288285382013-09-22T22:20:35.988-07:002013-09-22T22:20:35.988-07:00Quite a different scenario for many who bought sin...<i>Quite a different scenario for many who bought since 2008 as opposed to those buying 10 years ago.</i><br /><br />Garth's predictions have been around a lot longer via his books.<br /><br />And since 2008, maybe for Victoria but as Leo_S pointed out....Winnipeg up 43%, Toronto up 33%....Vancouver up 17%, etc.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-66382177885365585992013-09-22T21:24:39.904-07:002013-09-22T21:24:39.904-07:00LeoM, not really. I agree higher interest rates w...LeoM, not really. I agree higher interest rates would result in lower prices. <br /><br />Many people here have been promoting theories that are unrelated to interest rates, similar to the US example.<br /><br />As for garth - he published "The Little Book of Real Estate Wisdom" and "The Strategy: A Homeowner's Guide to Wealth Creation" in 2002. Both of these books were full of predictions that have not occurred in the past 11 years.<br /><br />For example, he predicted plunging real estate values. Turner also promoted the idea that baby boomers had no choice but to borrow against their home equity (which is earning them nothing), and buy stocks and mutual funds which will provide annual returns of 12%-15%. Good luck to those banking on those type of returns in their retirement now.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188115284116016130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-48714230736767495502013-09-22T19:17:00.168-07:002013-09-22T19:17:00.168-07:00totoro victoria said...
I can't believe h...totoro victoria said...<br /><br /> I can't believe how many times the harbingers of imminent doom can be wrong. I mean if you have been wrong for years now, you might want to reconsider key assumptions. <br /><br />--------------<br /><br />I only visit this blog occasionally, but I think the "harbingers of imminent doom" are often speaking in relation to the effect interest rate increases will have on real estate prices in Greater Victoria.<br /><br />When it is the western governments manipulating interest rates lower with massive stimulus programs, you must know that these people are likely correct in their opinion that there is an inverse relationship between interest rates and real estate prices.<br /><br />If interest rates increase then real estate prices will decrease, just as the inverse happened when interest rates decreased.LeoMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13407650823511000293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-72393545793283856232013-09-22T19:09:27.376-07:002013-09-22T19:09:27.376-07:00@totoro
"Just ridiculous to say that Marko h...@totoro<br /><br />"Just ridiculous to say that Marko has cost anyone anything. If we look at it as people are all zombies prey to the whim of what someone posts on their blog you should look to how much garth has cost those who haven't bought in the past ten years because of what he says." <br /><br />Not to be too picky, Totoro, but<br />Garth's Greaterfool blog began in 2008, if I'm not mistaken. <br /><br />Quite a different scenario for many who bought since 2008 as opposed to those buying 10 years ago.vawrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17588554412067862401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-62922339881022653592013-09-22T19:07:05.856-07:002013-09-22T19:07:05.856-07:00"The sellers on Transit Road (Oak Bay) who ju..."The sellers on Transit Road (Oak Bay) who just realised a $70,000 loss over the last 8 years might have wished they listened to Garth." Presumed 70k loss... Plus renting the same place over that period would have cost them 140k.... Plus if they listened to Garth back then they might have put it all in Nortel ;-)dasmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14638226799679794103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-4729400120231485952013-09-22T17:36:09.805-07:002013-09-22T17:36:09.805-07:00It is well documented that the toronto real estate...It is well documented that the toronto real estate board always compares current month numbers (which include deals which will later fall through) to last year's numbers that have already had collapsed deals subtracted. That distorts everything to appear positive and is pretty clear manipulation. <br />I believe the VREB does this a bit differently, by subtracting collapsed sales from the next month, rather than updating data once it is released.<br /><br />Either way though, I don't really see it as a massive deal. Yes this is somewhat cheating, but how much effect do real estate board proclamations have on the market? I'd say pretty damn minimal.Leo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-50437514112332166602013-09-22T17:28:27.791-07:002013-09-22T17:28:27.791-07:00"...how much garth has cost those who haven&#..."...how much garth has cost those who haven't bought in the past ten years because of what he says."<br /><br />The sellers on Transit Road (Oak Bay) who just realised a $70,000 loss over the last 8 years might have wished they listened to Garth.<br />See JustJack Sep20@4:46pm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-51078281082830994072013-09-22T14:48:34.372-07:002013-09-22T14:48:34.372-07:00Marko, thank you for your polite answer. I agree t...Marko, thank you for your polite answer. I agree that we would need to see 20 years of audited data to have a good sense of what was going on. However, Mr. Kay appears to be saying that he has evidence that some of the big boards are not removing double or triple sales from their stats. You say this isn't going on in Victoria, and he appears to agree with you. <br /><br />I don't think it is a trivial matter to fudge sales data, even if it has been going on for some time. lolatengohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08304418765109239222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22112977678552153262013-09-22T14:17:28.013-07:002013-09-22T14:17:28.013-07:00That should be Marko, of course, not Mario!
I'...<i>That should be Marko, of course, not Mario!</i><br /><br />I'll take Mario over Marco :)<br />Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-89575959902072788112013-09-22T14:16:39.177-07:002013-09-22T14:16:39.177-07:00To be honest, your argument was confusing. You mig...<i>To be honest, your argument was confusing. You might have been saying that these old FSBO houses wouldn't have sold unless they got MLS exposure anyway, which might be correct. I think you also argued that the mere postings have been included in sales data for more than a year, which may also be correct.</i><br /><br />Summary: For the most part the consumer is substituting full service MLS® with mere posting MLS®, not yard stick FSBO sign with mere posting MLS®.<br /><br /><i>However, you completely ignored the second argument that several boards, particularly in the GTA region, are permitting 2 or 3 listings for a single house. A quick search of realtor.ca shows this to be true. There is nothing wrong with this in and of itself unless they double or triple count the sale as well, which Ross Kay contends they are doing. So, a house that sells in Hamilton is allegedly counted as a sale in Toronto, Hamilton, and Burlington. </i><br /><br />I can't comment on Mr. Kays "audits" as he doesn't have 20 years of "audited numbers," and I don't have access to the Hamilton Board. What I want to see is 20 years of "audited numbers," not one year of audited numbers versus a long history of "unaudited numbers."<br /><br />I have access to all the boards in BC and yes when I have a listing north of the Malahat and south of Duncan I always put it up on both boards (VREB & VIREB). It has nothing to do with double dipping....it has to do with getting my seller's property sold. There are systems in place to avoid double counting. Placing a property on multiple boards, in a scenario as outlined above, has been common practice for decades.<br /><br /><i>Others have also found MLS posts for condo presales, which would further inflate resale data. This is also easily verified with a close look at realtor.ca</i><br /><br />This has been going on for decades (I have access to all MLS® listings in Victoria back to 1989). It isn't anything new. In fact, developers are reporting less pre-sales than they use to. For example, the Promontory has 120 units sold and only 25 are MLS® reported. Many developments report even less. There are hundreds of unreported pre-sale or completed construction new condo sales in Victoria that go un-reported as they are purchased directly from the show room. These are substitutes for re-sale condos that would be reported. A lot of new single family home sales in Langford also go unreported.<br /><br />I've talked to a few developers about why they don't report more and some don't like the price history of the building exposed on MLS® while others are just trying save every single dollar possible (there are VREB and brokerage fees associated with uploading a listing).Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84831802222873657192013-09-22T14:11:15.236-07:002013-09-22T14:11:15.236-07:00This site used to be more interesting before Leo b...This site used to be more interesting before Leo bought a house. At least there was someone with an ardent interest in data and a talent for analyzing it rationally to keep things ticking along. <br /><br />Just ridiculous to say that Marko has cost anyone anything. If we look at it as people are all zombies prey to the whim of what someone posts on their blog you should look to how much garth has cost those who haven't bought in the past ten years because of what he says.<br /><br />http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/garth-turners-dodgy-advice/Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188115284116016130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-30671577296651029042013-09-22T13:43:59.561-07:002013-09-22T13:43:59.561-07:00That should be Marko, of course, not Mario!
That should be Marko, of course, not Mario!<br />lolatengohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08304418765109239222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-86834055097628997872013-09-22T12:24:58.563-07:002013-09-22T12:24:58.563-07:00Mario, I believe you challenged Turner's conte...Mario, I believe you challenged Turner's contention that the sudden inclusion of mere postings in MLS total sales counts is somehow misleading. To be honest, your argument was confusing. You might have been saying that these old FSBO houses wouldn't have sold unless they got MLS exposure anyway, which might be correct. I think you also argued that the mere postings have been included in sales data for more than a year, which may also be correct.<br /><br />However, you completely ignored the second argument that several boards, particularly in the GTA region, are permitting 2 or 3 listings for a single house. A quick search of realtor.ca shows this to be true. There is nothing wrong with this in and of itself unless they double or triple count the sale as well, which Ross Kay contends they are doing. So, a house that sells in Hamilton is allegedly counted as a sale in Toronto, Hamilton, and Burlington. If this is a new development, it would indeed affect year-over-year comparisons. Others have also found MLS posts for condo presales, which would further inflate resale data. This is also easily verified with a close look at realtor.ca.<br /><br />No one has argued that the Victoria board has been engaged in these practices. But given that the Hamilton board is the 7th largest in the country, national stats would be affected, however slightly. Mr. Kay seems like he has an ax to grind, but it would be nice to see raw sales data for resales in Canada.<br />lolatengohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08304418765109239222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22917631118242671292013-09-22T11:19:25.432-07:002013-09-22T11:19:25.432-07:00Okay Marko you win...
but if you have time to read...Okay Marko you win...<br />but if you have time to read. Sorry I didn't have the time to fiddle with the html - <br /><br />http://www.canadianbusiness.com/companies-and-industries/real-estates-little-white-lies/<br /><br />http://www.brokersinsider.com/pdf/competitionstudy0311.pdf<br /><br />http://metrovanwatch.wordpress.com/2013/02/15/real-estate-media-manipulation-trend-emerges-public-must-use-tools-to-demand-truth-and-integrity/<br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/09/20/mls-phantom-listings-house-prices_n_3957237.htmlJack and Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12600984392414748614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-77643419034299313732013-09-22T11:08:16.184-07:002013-09-22T11:08:16.184-07:00I believe Marko that Mr. Turner stated that these ...<i>I believe Marko that Mr. Turner stated that these numbers have "long" been manipulated.</i><br /><br />And I've stated why I think his manipulated argument is bunk. No one has yet to reply my statement.<br /><br /><i>The difference is Marko has cost people lots of money in the past few years encouraging them to buy condos here.</i><br /><br />Yes....that is why I come on HHV and document that I rent my principal residence condo.<br /><br /><i>Whether this Garth guy has been wrong or not, hasn’t cost people anything by continuing to rent. In fact he’s saved them money since not only have rents been declining, but it’s cheaper to rent to begin with.</i><br /><br />Ok.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-18697935553148794742013-09-22T10:37:54.738-07:002013-09-22T10:37:54.738-07:00The difference is Marko has cost people lots of mo...The difference is Marko has cost people lots of money in the past few years encouraging them to buy condos here. I know of several condos that are down 6 figures already. Whether this Garth guy has been wrong or not, hasn’t cost people anything by continuing to rent. In fact he’s saved them money since not only have rents been declining, but it’s cheaper to rent to begin with.SJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11421821610882545660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8850266776906648752013-09-22T10:35:57.317-07:002013-09-22T10:35:57.317-07:00Marko -
After a decade of being wrong, he is now p...Marko -<br />After a decade of being wrong, he is now pulling out the "numbers are being manipulated." <br />________________________<br /><br />I believe Marko that Mr. Turner stated that these numbers have "long" been manipulated, not just recently and like Wall Street it comes to light when the public and the "sheeple" are made aware of what is happening. Nothing more nothing less.<br /><br />He also carries a much more experienced and varied career in his and your field. In time your opinions will matter, but are you showing malice because he has banned you from his blog.<br /><br />There are posters on his blog that make much more left of center or right of center comments that do not get banned.<br /><br />I take it you had a discussion with him that didn't go your way?? Jack and Catehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12600984392414748614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-75767096151829267252013-09-22T09:30:35.596-07:002013-09-22T09:30:35.596-07:00Last week in the previous thread on HHV someone br...Last week in the previous thread on HHV someone brought up Garth's post on "manipulation." I put forth an argument towards his ridiculously poor and incorrect analysis. No one commented or replied. <br /><br />Here is the reality of the situation. Garth has been wrong for a decade. He encourages people to sell their home and invest, and ideally you call him to do that.<br /><br />After a decade of being wrong, he is now pulling out the "numbers are being manipulated."Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-37162003438988572092013-09-22T09:10:30.197-07:002013-09-22T09:10:30.197-07:00I read GT's blog every day. Does that make me ...I read GT's blog every day. Does that make me a follower? If so, according to Marko, I am delusional. <br /><br />Your animosity towards Garth Turner<br />is well known Marko, and that comment only serves to discredit you. <br /><br />Not surprisingly,following up on Marko's comment, Totoro couldn't resist another shot at Turner's blog.vawrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17588554412067862401noreply@blogger.com