tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post7742585689904391994..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Utter failureHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-69217790234134061972010-01-17T09:10:25.372-08:002010-01-17T09:10:25.372-08:00Double-Agent -
CAMP is an industry lobby group w...Double-Agent - <br /><br />CAMP is an industry lobby group with a very strong self interest in maintaining the volume of mortgages.<br /><br />They bring forward three arguments:<br />1 - Canadians are well educated and capable of making their own decisions. False (and condescending) - Americans were also well educated. The issue is that most everyone follows the herd, no matter their level of education<br /><br />2 - Increase in income will offset increased payments. O.k. if rates go up to 6% in three years, increasing payments 60% (see OMC's posts) and government salary increases are likely to be 0%, I call B.S.<br /><br />3 - people have factored in rises in interest rates in their decisions. B.S. again. Why all the talk about 'affordability' and a focus only on the current payments, not the debt load or risk.<br /><br />There should be a law that puts lobbyists and their constituent boards in jail for false and misleading information placed in the public media to swing opinion for their self interest.Animal Spirithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14290032551579947421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24402349547783790262010-01-17T08:19:03.652-08:002010-01-17T08:19:03.652-08:00Funny, I was just yesterday talking to a lawyer w...Funny, I was just yesterday talking to a lawyer who does alot of real estate. He was saying the opposite of the brokers, he figured almost none could afford even a modest rate increase.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-2998524983633604242010-01-17T00:11:03.527-08:002010-01-17T00:11:03.527-08:00Once again Times Colonist chooses to put a caution...Once again Times Colonist chooses to put a cautionary real estate article on page B7 of the Business section (by the car ads). Pumper articles always go on the first page. Shame on them.<br /><br /><a href="http://i45.tinypic.com/ngws9i.png" rel="nofollow">Page Scan</a><br /><br />Here is the article...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.timescolonist.com/business/housing+sales+spark+bubble+debate/2448813/story.html" rel="nofollow">Hot housing sales spark bubble debate</a><br />.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-49331458124285271622010-01-16T23:46:19.719-08:002010-01-16T23:46:19.719-08:00Flaherty must have the mortgage brokers nervous. ...Flaherty must have the mortgage brokers nervous. They are coming out with outrageous statements like this one.<br /><br /><i>Canadian Association of Mortgage Professionals chief economist Will Dunning - “Virtually every Canadian who is in a position to buy a home and qualify for a mortgage is well-educated and capable of assessing what is in their best interests, of looking forward, and of anticipating threats to their financial well-being.”<br /><br />"The bottom line from the simulations is that even though mortgage payments will probably rise for most borrowers, the increase in their incomes will more than offset the higher payments," said CAAMP chief economist Will Dunning. “All in all, the degree of risk from rising mortgage rates appears to be small and manageable,” he writes</i><br /><br /><b>Here is more nonsense from his boss, Jim Murphy, president and CEO of CAAMP.</b><br /><br /><i>"The vast majority of Canadian mortgage borrowers are not taking on undue risks. They have factored rising interest rates in to their mortgage decisions,"</i><br /><br />You can read more about the CAAMP report and see some stats on the mortgage market by <a href="http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2010/01/canada-prepared-for-rising-rates-caamp.html" rel="nofollow">clicking here.</a> Take a look at the comments section to see what others think of this report.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-5623088656046531942010-01-16T16:05:06.643-08:002010-01-16T16:05:06.643-08:00Bubble Talk is back in the mainstream news again.....Bubble Talk is back in the mainstream news again...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2010/01/15/2447336.html" rel="nofollow">CBC - Record house sales revive bubble fears</a><br /><br /><i>The heated debate about whether the Canadian housing market is in the midst of a bubble is likely to continue into this year, thanks to December sales that set a new record for the month.<br /><br />The stakes are high as the Canadian housing industry battles the government, which has not ruled out tougher requirements for homebuyers to cool the market. <br /><br />“We think that dismissing housing risks is being a tad Pollyannaish, but it’s all the rage in Ottawa circles these days,” said Derek Holt, an economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia. “The industry is full of talk of an unsustainable non-bubble, whatever that is, and driving a message that borrowers are all acting out of utter forward-looking brilliance.<br /><br />“A key debate is whether housing will experience a soft-landing toward lower volumes and prices, which is possible, or experience a more sudden decline in activity in the back half of the year and into 2011, which we think is likely.”<br /><br />Mr. Holt is suggesting that as short-term interest rates go up as much 200 basis points by the middle of next year and supply finally builds up in the Canadian marketplace, <b>prices will drop by as much as 10%</b>.</i><br /><br /><a href="http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE60E34320100115?sp=true" rel="nofollow">Canada home resales roar, bubble talk flourishes</a><br /><br /><i>"The raft of data will do nothing to quell talk of a bubble, talk that the Bank of Canada and the Canadian Real Estate Association have studiously downplayed," said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.<br /><br />"And, before we officially jump on the bubble bandwagon, we would again point out that the reported price change is skewed by the surge in Vancouver and Toronto sales."<br /><br />But Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes said "dismissing housing risks is being a tad Pollyannaish."<br /></i>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8676766886953649662010-01-16T11:18:24.592-08:002010-01-16T11:18:24.592-08:00Interesting comments from Winnipeg...
Tiptoe, thr...Interesting comments from Winnipeg...<br /><br /><a href="http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/westview/tiptoe-through-the-bubble-81862082.html" rel="nofollow">Tiptoe, through the bubble</a><br /><br /><i>EVERY bubble bursts. When they are soap bubbles, they are harmless bursts. When they are economic bubbles, they are calamities, and they have been for centuries.<br /><br />We don't have a subprime problem here, so we won't have a real-estate bubble, we are told.<br /><br />But I also hear opinions of people in the property racket who aren't so sure. And their concern is not so much that Winnipeg house prices have climbed 78 per cent in the past four years, as the new reassessment reveals. Or that there are stories about house hunters sleeping in the streets of Vancouver in hopes of snapping up a $1-million house that we would pay no more than $350,000 for. No, their concern is that low interest rates and long-term amortization periods are making it easy to get into the market -- maybe too easy. But more concerning is that all this demand is being insured by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp.<br /><br />But my sources wonder if CMHC, which insured 920,000 housing units in 2008, 350,000 more than it intended, according to the Globe and Mail, was in a position to ramp up its due diligence as fast as it ramped up its underwriting. It's a good question because, if there is a bubble, Canadian taxpayers will be on the hook for all the paper.<br /><br />I'm not trying to be alarmist here. <b>I simply think it prudent that we start hearing more than "trust me" from the folks in charge of the tulip patch.</b><br /><br /></i>EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-40498327782283792292010-01-16T10:06:43.858-08:002010-01-16T10:06:43.858-08:00think,
isn't that amazing! $760k for what is...think,<br /><br />isn't that amazing! $760k for what is basically a tear down. The location isn't even that great. Our realtor was using that houose as a bit of a lesson to us He told us to watch it to get a true idea of how the market is. I guess renting is the only thing to do in this market.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8395472572429278312010-01-16T09:46:36.184-08:002010-01-16T09:46:36.184-08:00"1) There is no inventory of lots, prices are..."1) There is no inventory of lots, prices are among the higest I have ever seen. Development is also out of question, I have had the financing available to me cut by 60% and I have a very long track record of successful projects. If you are a young builder with only one successful project good look getting financing."<br /><br /><br /><br />The perfect set up for a real estate crash identical to January 1981. Low inventory,record prices, and financing difficulties by those with good records. Look out below. <br /><br /><br />PS Only a $50,000 profit after laying out a million dollars and praying for some deep pockets to come around ? Something called "risk/reward" seems totally out of whack here.Vichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08986654555255579099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-79102472291137149092010-01-16T08:54:23.507-08:002010-01-16T08:54:23.507-08:00omc - someone bought that piece of crap on deal st...omc - someone bought that piece of crap on deal street!!!!!! wow!thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-90403618657782541302010-01-15T20:14:28.077-08:002010-01-15T20:14:28.077-08:00Thanks Guys for clarifying the number. I was just ...Thanks Guys for clarifying the number. I was just trying to be balanced, not being accusatory that someone simply pulled it out of thin air. Often times we bears get accused of making stats up by the other side, so I figured I'd save them the trouble ;-)....HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-9433665343405841602010-01-15T20:11:13.130-08:002010-01-15T20:11:13.130-08:00Statistics Canada has an extensive report on housi...Statistics Canada has an <a href="http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census06/analysis/shelter/pdf/97-554-XIE2006001.pdf" rel="nofollow">extensive report on housing trends (pdf)</a> based on the 2006 Census. <br /><br />The following is an edited version of a table in the report. In 2006 65% of households were owners and 35% renters. Note that 44.3% of homes were mortgage free in the Capital Region District. I suspect that the % of owners is higher now and % mortgage free is lower.<br /><br /><a href="http://i41.tinypic.com/2v9cj7a.png" rel="nofollow">Owner/Renter Breakdown</a><br /><br /><a href="http://i39.tinypic.com/2v1rddf.png" rel="nofollow">Owners with a mortgage</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8070792258785299902010-01-15T20:04:51.220-08:002010-01-15T20:04:51.220-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-39913627775882288582010-01-15T18:49:51.326-08:002010-01-15T18:49:51.326-08:00I an guarantee that 75% of Victoria's do not o...I an guarantee that 75% of Victoria's do not own their own homes. That is because at least half the houses have big fat mortgages and IMO you do not own your own house until it is paid for. <br /><br />On average each month 40,000 new homes are being purchased across Canada while this stimulous is in place. The vast majority of these buyers are heavily mortgaging their purchases. Each month that this goverment allows this "false" housing market to continue we see more previously mortgage free homes and rental properties get bought up by heavily debted new homeowners. <br /><br />If interest rates stay low for all of 2010 which is a good possiblity, we will have seen some one million real estate purchases under this "false" market. I think there are only 13.8 million homes in the country. That is clearly enough to topple the real estate market once interest rates rise and this ignores all the people who bought at the previous peak in late 2007 and early 2008.<br /><br />I have met so many people who were move up buyers in 2010 it is almost sickening. They all share three things in common; 1) they all made a bunch of money on their first property, 2) they are borrowing excessive amounts of money now at these low interest rates to fund their home ownership dreams and 3) they are convinced that real estate in Victoria can only go up. <br /><br />IMO, it is not just the first time buyers that will get killed when nterest rates rise.Reidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07973559884255280736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-9879424568770207742010-01-15T18:36:55.433-08:002010-01-15T18:36:55.433-08:00So reality has set in and we are now looking at h...So reality has set in and we are now looking at higher quality rentals for at least the next year. Did a little comparison, a $600k mortgage at todays to 2% to what I think will be around in 2 years; 6%. The mortgage payment goes from $2050 to $3400, based on a 35 year. We wouldn't use a 35 year, but I am guessing many are.<br /><br />That thing about leaving wiggle room to go into a 35 year is BS as it is only about $400 difference. If you have a 60% increase in housing costs, $400 a month isn't going to matter.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-71835014634182712222010-01-15T13:58:52.042-08:002010-01-15T13:58:52.042-08:00http://www.canadapersonalfinancewebsite.com/
Try...http://www.canadapersonalfinancewebsite.com/<br /><br /><br />Try the above link for percentage of home ownership.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84987743243734037582010-01-15T13:54:07.983-08:002010-01-15T13:54:07.983-08:00what are the listing/sales stats looking like so f...what are the listing/sales stats looking like so far for Jan? Double-Agent have you got any numbers?thinkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04527051722420253429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-52595775428017780082010-01-15T11:57:52.950-08:002010-01-15T11:57:52.950-08:00I'd like to point out that we don't *know*...I'd like to point out that we don't *know* if 75% of Victorians own their own homes. I believe the number is still under 50% in Victoria proper, and is probably not close to 75% CRD-wide. Obviously, we're at a point where home ownership levels have never been higher, because it's never been easier nor more encouraged to take the plunge (pun intended). <br /><br />Where's that number coming from? Is it the Canada-wide number being transposed into the local market?HouseHuntVictoriahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22627219279330451692010-01-15T10:38:00.828-08:002010-01-15T10:38:00.828-08:00the word "not" should not be in the stat...the word "not" should not be in the statement<br /><br />"where people were not encouraged to extend themselves"<br /><br />not because it does not make sense its just that its not correct and does not follow the logic. Not to say that not would not be appropriate if not were what I meant to say. But that would not be correct.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-42050272176952371372010-01-15T10:32:40.537-08:002010-01-15T10:32:40.537-08:00If 75 percent of Victorians own the home they live...If 75 percent of Victorians own the home they live in, that all so means that 25 percent of Victorians rent the home they live in.<br /><br />Obviously then, we can not have 100 percent of Canadians owning the home they are living in. And I would say that 100 percent home ownership is an impossiblity.<br /><br />Because, that would mean that there is no pool of future home owners. It would also mean the end of the rental market. <br /><br />But how high is too high for home ownership? 60, 70, 80 percent or more? In my opinion, we have reached that point when the vacancy rate escalates and rents start dropping. And that's where we are, right now. <br /><br />The government stimulus has brought forward future demand at the cost of the landlord. Every purchase by a first time buyer is now a vacancy for a landlord. A vacancy, that on average, takes longer to fill and may require some downward price adjustment in the rental rate.<br /><br />Continuation of the current low interest stimulus will only worsen the situation for home owners with suites, putting some of them into mortgage default. <br /><br />In contrast<br /><br /> A change in CMHC regulations will dramatically drop the number of sales by the first time home owner and by extension the "move up" market. Thereby increasing listings and the time to sell a property. Eventually leading to lower prices.<br /><br />Its a lose/lose situation. <br /><br />If we could magically wipe away the last five years of insanity, where people were not encouraged to extend themselves into levels of debt equivalent to nearly a third of their future life time income stream, we would be looking at a more secure future for the 9 million Canadian boomers that are now starting to retire and their children.<br /><br /><br />But we can't turn back time we can only... <br /><br />cull the herd.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-76881157482946757382010-01-15T09:42:13.858-08:002010-01-15T09:42:13.858-08:00Sure our lending practices are questionable but we...Sure our lending practices are questionable but we are not as bad as the US and that's why we are different.<br /><br />Lets use that logic in other examples.<br /><br />Sure I'm drunk officer, but I'm not as drunk as that guy.<br /><br />or<br /><br />Like, your sister's boyfriend has had sex with her more than I have.<br /><br /><br />Or how about one for the future.<br /><br />Sure, I didn't pay my mortgage this month, but its not like I didn't pay the mortgage for the last year.<br /><br /><br />Its all about accountability and responsibility. It's ranges from the highest levels of government in not having parliament in session to the average Joe not declaring part time income.<br /><br />So, God bless Amercia, because if it weren't for them - we would be the largest holder of sub prime mortgages in the world -rather than the second largest.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-73214608315518407642010-01-15T08:59:15.119-08:002010-01-15T08:59:15.119-08:00It demonstrates that 75% of Victorians own homes, ...It demonstrates that 75% of Victorians own homes, and another 10% are waiting for mom/dad/god to give them enough for a downpayment and some way to make the mortgage payments...<br /><br />Only way you get 85% thinking house prices will continue to rise.<br /><br />The other 15% are firmly committed to sitting on the sidelines of the market until sanity once again prevails.Just Janicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06002680972898096266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24535976148789263392010-01-14T18:23:43.149-08:002010-01-14T18:23:43.149-08:00kunwak said..
What kind of poll is that?
A fals...kunwak said..<br /><br /><i>What kind of poll is that? </i><br /><br />A false one used for illustrative purposes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84129131739774221212010-01-14T15:49:57.179-08:002010-01-14T15:49:57.179-08:00"Not only do commuters have a short drive to ..."Not only do commuters have a short drive to work, but the city also ranks high on the proportion of people who cycle, walk or take public transit, a "win-win" outcome," the report said.<br /><br /><br />Some 1500 people start off for work on bicycles in Victoria, however only 1400 arrive.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-4900829054612850832010-01-14T15:40:04.129-08:002010-01-14T15:40:04.129-08:00"**Poll accurate to +/- 3%. Survey results ba..."**Poll accurate to +/- 3%. Survey results based on a telephone poll of 1000 residents of Victoria."<br /><br />What kind of poll is that? You ask people in Victoria what they think is the best place to live in NA?? How about you ask 1000 people in Vancouver or 1000 in Toronto, they will likely tell you similar things. They moved there for a reason after all. <br />The classic "How to lie with statistics" comes to mind.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03610949355592602680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-46248795293972706392010-01-14T13:48:06.662-08:002010-01-14T13:48:06.662-08:00The Times Colonist had the following article in th...The Times Colonist had the following article in the Business section today. Check out the comments.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Study+puts+Victoria+conference+list/2440450/story.html" rel="nofollow">Study puts Victoria on 'B' list</a><br /><br /><b>Housing, crime cited as factors in report on 50 Canadian cities</b><br /><br /><i>The city of Victoria might have made it to the top of the list among Canadian cities attractive to migrants, but pricey housing and what a report for the Conference Board of Canada considers crime problems pulled it down to a "B" ranking.<br /><br />"If not for Victoria's serious housing affordability and relative crime problems, it may well have emerged at the top of Canada's attractive cities."<br /><br />In the report, Victoria was ranked at No. 48 for its incidence of violent crime per 100,000 people, and at No. 49 for its incidence of drug-related crime.</i><br /><br />Related news: In an Angus-Reed poll over 90% of the respondents thought Victoria was the best place in North America to work and retire. Over 85% thought house prices would continue to rise because everyone wants to live here. **<br /><br /><br />**Poll accurate to +/- 3%. Survey results based on a telephone poll of 1000 residents of Victoria.<br /><br />-Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com