tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post8524730663563502643..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: Monday market update: into July's home stretchHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-2587655279520129652011-08-01T11:34:47.071-07:002011-08-01T11:34:47.071-07:00Good Monday Morning. Here are my stats for July 2...Good Monday Morning. Here are my stats for July 25-31.<br /><br />SFH: Min 2 beds & 2 baths, priced between $375K & $775K in the core municipalities of Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, Saanich East & Saanich West.<br /><br />New: 30<br />Sold: 28<br />P/C: 33<br />OM: 16<br /><br />Avg selling price: $545K<br />Med selling price: $560K<br /><br />43% of the homes that sold went for below BC assessment. 54% of the houses sold had disclosed 2ndary suites.<br /><br />In the 12 months, and within this exact criteria, last week had the HIGHEST sales volume at 28 sales. The highest was Feb 28 - Mar 6 with 35 sales and the week of May 16 -22 tied with last week. Last week also had the LOWEST avg sale price since the beginning of 2011.<br /><br />Condos & Townhomes: Min 2 beds & 2 baths priced between $250K & $585K in most areas of Victoria (not downtown)& Saanich East, all areas of Esquimalt & Oak Bay and Gorge, Tillicum and Interurban areas of Saanich West.<br /><br />New: 21<br />Sold 14 condos & 2 townhomes<br /><br />Avg selling price: $349K<br />Med selling price: $330K<br /><br />The two townhomes sold for $398K & $476K.<br /><br />3 of the 14 condo's & both of the townhomes went for below BC assessed value.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-75998990063043730072011-08-01T09:10:08.301-07:002011-08-01T09:10:08.301-07:00Might not get the stats today given it is a holida...Might not get the stats today given it is a holiday.....Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-61332959733809868722011-08-01T07:01:29.733-07:002011-08-01T07:01:29.733-07:00omc - I agree with you about the price ceiling. S...omc - I agree with you about the price ceiling. South Oak Bay hit it long before North Oak Bay and North Oak Bay has caught up. I think North Oak Bay will have quite a few casualties when it corrects as a lot of people overbought around here and stretched to do so. I an still watching the Sandowne flip with much interest - new stucco just went on. Wonder how much they will ask since they really overbought that one - I won't be surprised if they ask close to a million. Of note, both flips in/near Estevan are still sitting (Dunlevy and St. Anne).<br /><br />The price ceiling that I can see is around $675K. Over this and the pool of buyers thins substantially.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-28836800639992865832011-08-01T06:29:46.440-07:002011-08-01T06:29:46.440-07:00I would say I agree with you simple man. A few mo...I would say I agree with you simple man. A few more observations; Oak Bay seems to have stalled on price not going up or down. There appears to be a price ceiling that has been reached long ago in the south, but suckers have been pushing less desirable areas towards this ceiling. I don't think this is long term sustainable. Those who bought in estevan, landsdowne and henderson in the last few years are at great risk. It appears that over exuberance on the shack structures is over in all areas, with the value dropping for the painted up 40s shack.<br /><br />Caddy bay, which is a million times nicer than lesser areas of oak bay, has already dropped significantly and appears to still be dropping.omchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11570216584047858772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-43777313125689533402011-07-31T07:47:04.784-07:002011-07-31T07:47:04.784-07:00Thanks for the info, animal spirit. A year rental...Thanks for the info, animal spirit. A year rental is a pain in the butt, to be sure. Subdivide? I didn't think the lot was that big. And why would you purposely build facing Caddy Bay of you had the choice?<br /><br />Tomorrow's numbers should be interesting. Very low sales, very high inventory and a near $50K drop in the average price from last month. Yes, they will spin it and yes, there are problems with using average data, but you live by the sword, you die by the sword.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-19062576969400698042011-07-31T00:14:28.068-07:002011-07-31T00:14:28.068-07:00My better half called the fellow advertising Caddy...My better half called the fellow advertising Caddy Bay / Estevan for rent. They are asking $1400 - says it is in reasonable shape inside, but he is trying to subdivide the lot and then build facing Cadboro Bay Road. Since it is in Oak Bay, how long would that take to get approval? He thought a year. <br /><br />For a renter, it is a short term play - best for university students.Animal Spirithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14290032551579947421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-4821472073971117452011-07-30T18:48:02.343-07:002011-07-30T18:48:02.343-07:00Amazing what some people will ask $1500 a month fo...Amazing what some people will ask $1500 a month for... <br /><a href="http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/apa/2520574470.html" rel="nofollow">http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/apa/2520574470.html</a>AandJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10929692120583099847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-70441744970756310732011-07-30T17:55:18.088-07:002011-07-30T17:55:18.088-07:00haven't heard from Waiting in a long while - y...haven't heard from Waiting in a long while - you still out there, Waiting?<br /><br />That house on the corner of Caddy Bay and Estevan that sold a few months back is now for rent, in case anyone is looking. I can't see it being more than $1500 a month.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-16772112273473989182011-07-30T10:03:23.806-07:002011-07-30T10:03:23.806-07:00Marko said "Heading into the weekend the SFH ...Marko said "Heading into the weekend the SFH average is 581k"<br /><br />Last month the SFH average was 629K so this is a big drop. I don't imagine there will be many over $1M sales this weekend to push this number up.<br /><br />Marko - On Monday you said there were 380 sales so far this month. This was a change of 110 from the week before. Hard to imagine we will go over 500. Do you have the sales stats as of today??EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-32225863662316864872011-07-30T08:07:56.787-07:002011-07-30T08:07:56.787-07:00It was reported today that select lenders, faced w...It was reported today that select lenders, faced with rising inventories of foreclosures, have started implementing tear-down programs for their existing home inventories. Rather than letting empty homes flood the market, causing further downward pressure for existing home sales, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Bank of America are destroying some of the homes they may have recently foreclosed upon. In San Diego, nearly 27,000 homes are foreclosed upon each year. <br /><br />A major consideration is the projected tax write-off for each transaction. If the home was not foreclosed upon for the purpose of tearing it down, tax write-offs can be accessed at up to full market value.<br /><br />source: San Diego Examiner<br /><br />????Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-37332767924041317782011-07-29T23:35:07.076-07:002011-07-29T23:35:07.076-07:00Thanks everyone for confirming my preference to st...Thanks everyone for confirming my preference to stay with a variable rate. The risk is no problem ... higher payments just mean less money for extra payments to be get rid of the mortgage faster.<br /><br />A $500K mortgage with a fixed-rate 6% interest rate amortized over 25 years costs $959,709 after the interest is added. The same mortage with a variable-rate 4.5% (average) interest rate amortized over 25 years costs $830,208 - about $120K less.DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-27914367638003109602011-07-29T20:21:06.950-07:002011-07-29T20:21:06.950-07:00Heading into the weekend the SFH average is 581k.....Heading into the weekend the SFH average is 581k.....sales volume will be close to last years...difficult to predict at this point if it will be over or fewer than 527.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-88897171483448111842011-07-29T17:53:42.876-07:002011-07-29T17:53:42.876-07:00DavidL: I would stick with the variable rate as we...DavidL: I would stick with the variable rate as well. I'd bet on the variable not getting much higher than 3.69% (the current fixed rate) within 3 yrs.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-73947545697919293512011-07-29T16:56:41.462-07:002011-07-29T16:56:41.462-07:00I tend to agree with Just Janice in favor of the v...I tend to agree with Just Janice in favor of the variable rate. For the variable to be the better choice, the average rate over the nearly four years just needs to be lower than 3.69%. If the variable rate increased at a constant rate (hypothetical), it would have to be higher than 4.96% at the end of the term for the fixed to be better. It is quite possible that your variable rate will be higher than this in four years, but the bank doesn’t think so hence the 3.69% fixed rate. Banks are risk averse. If you are willing to take on some risk there are savings to be had. You usually have an ongoing option to switch to a fixed rate (e.g. if inflation becomes a problem and rates move much higher). Either way you will be facing the new rates at the end of the term if the mortgage isn’t paid off. I have always had variable rates and have saved a bundle. You have to be able to handle a bigger mortgage payment than you have though so wouldn’t be suitable for someone who’s cash flow is tapped out already.Antonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15517790675640858213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-34776377658469221252011-07-29T14:42:11.558-07:002011-07-29T14:42:11.558-07:00David - there's always a price to certainty......David - there's always a price to certainty...do what allows you to sleep at night. My gut is that the variable is likely to remain the cheaper option over the next three years (not to say there won't be times when the fixed will be cheaper than what the variable is)...<br /><br />I found a really interesting site that has done a fabulous job of analyzing the Canadian housing situation. www.theeconomicanalyst.com ....Just Janicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06002680972898096266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-13629780177204011712011-07-29T13:52:50.129-07:002011-07-29T13:52:50.129-07:00I have about 3 years 10 months left in my variable...I have about 3 years 10 months left in my variable rate mortgage - currently 2.4%. With increased payments, etc. I expect to be paid off in just 3 years.<br /><br />So - what are your thoughts about switching to a fixed rate mortgage (@ 3.69%) or staying with my (soon to be increasing) variable rate? <br /><br />Could variable rates increase by 3% in three years? A few months ago, I would have thought not - but with the pending downgrade of US debt, I'm beginning to wonder ...DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-81643317358717905582011-07-29T13:06:08.269-07:002011-07-29T13:06:08.269-07:00Hmmmm ... that indoor pool at 964 Carolwood was ki...Hmmmm ... that indoor pool at <i>964 Carolwood</i> was kinda cool. Quite the price reduction!DavidLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00353906360642344879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24919093614226606332011-07-29T12:08:54.413-07:002011-07-29T12:08:54.413-07:00TC published this article on Wednesday. Maybe Oliv...TC published this article on Wednesday. Maybe Olives or Once Harmony will repost on KIV.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Debt+rate+hikes+cause+concern/5165579/story.html" rel="nofollow">Debt, rate hikes cause for concern</a><br /><br /><i>The very thing that lifted the economy from the depths of the recession - Canadians' passion for owning a home - could also be its undoing, warns the chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management.<br /><br />Central to Eric Lascelles' concern is that the availability of cheap credit has driven household debt levels to record highs and soon-tobe-rising interest rates will bear a "palpable" impact on individuals as well as the broader economy.<br /><br />"There is a popular misconception that the Bank of Canada cannot afford to raise interest rates because this would prove too damaging for mortgage holders. <b>The opposite is in fact true.</b><br /><br />Once the Bank of Canada raises its key lending rate from the current "astonishingly cheap" one per cent, rising costs of servicing mortgage and other debts will sap consumer spending. <b>Housing prices will fall as lower-tier buyers are forced out of the market by diminished affordability.</b><br /><br />"The risk is clearly greatest of all for those who have just purchased a home," Lascelles said.<br /></i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-42746117254194161202011-07-29T11:57:43.024-07:002011-07-29T11:57:43.024-07:00Alexandrahere,
That house on Carolwood started ou...Alexandrahere,<br /><br />That house on Carolwood started out at 750K and dropped to 699K before a buyer came forward. Still not bad for a 1971 box in Broadmead.EagerBuyer(Not)https://www.blogger.com/profile/02849067281638388070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-10083195768231878232011-07-29T11:35:02.407-07:002011-07-29T11:35:02.407-07:00Look at that massive home at 964 Carolwood. Every...Look at that massive home at 964 Carolwood. Everyone's dream sold for $694K and assessed at $771K. Sure makes me happy that I sold my home in Esquimalt for $700K early 2008. So far this week within my criteria, I have 19 homes sold and 10 of those went for under BC assessment. You want to believe things are changing.Alexandraherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100843258061373047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91208784927225535092011-07-29T11:10:27.328-07:002011-07-29T11:10:27.328-07:00Tough times - I assume, with no real basis of know...Tough times - I assume, with no real basis of knowing, that the top 25% of realtors make 90% of the sales. That leaves the last 10% of the sales for the bottom 75% of the realtors. If there are 1200 realtors in Victoria, then this past month 900 of them had to share 50 sales.<br /><br />So many lured in by the promise of fast money. I know a lot of realtors who work in the service industry downtown. Now I know why.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-43670272083274565672011-07-29T10:54:44.648-07:002011-07-29T10:54:44.648-07:00Long weekend is here and that means not much will ...Long weekend is here and that means not much will be happening with real estate until next week.<br /><br />For those interested in the last 24 hours there have been 18 pending sales, 49 new listings and 34 price changes. Trend continues with sales tapering off and around 2 price changes and close to 3 new listings for every sale. <br /><br />Prices in many areas are dropping and you are getting more house for the dollar than you were a year ago. You just aren't seeing it in median and average price stats. However, I expect the average price to drop in July because there were only 13 sales over a million so far this month and many of those took a big haircut.<br /><br />Sales should be around 495 this month compared to 527 in July 2010 and 618 last month. With sales down and prices falling the gang at VREB will find it tough to spin next week. TC may even tell the real story for a change.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-79942682349728862662011-07-29T10:35:16.571-07:002011-07-29T10:35:16.571-07:00Looks like the Canadian economy shrunk in May and...Looks like the Canadian economy shrunk in May and I don't think it picked up in June or July either. <br /><br />Given the uncertainty around the US - with a rating downgrade appearing likely, it appears likely that the Canadian dollar will further appreciate. For most businesses (aside from those who need to import) - this is not a good thing. It might keep a lid on real gas prices, but most exporters (including tourism and commodity producers) will see demand for their goods and services fall.<br /><br />At a provincial level it looks like some estimates of GDP growth might be overly optimistic going forward (I can't see 4.8% per year going forward in the next two years).<br /><br />Mr. Carney might like to raise rates - but in an economic environment like this he'll be damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. <br /><br />In terms of what it means to Victoria and our housing market - confidence seems to be waning, incomes aren't expanding, and expectations about house price appreciation are vanishing. There'll be low rates, but it won't really matter...Just Janicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06002680972898096266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-57751722731020405302011-07-29T10:09:41.823-07:002011-07-29T10:09:41.823-07:00Still_Waiting - sorry, I am easily confused.Still_Waiting - sorry, I am easily confused.a simple manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13054677016369304449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-28384124588926932952011-07-29T08:41:25.956-07:002011-07-29T08:41:25.956-07:00a simple man,
You must have me confused with some...a simple man,<br /><br />You must have me confused with some other poster who is also waiting :>)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com