tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post8614216048427036431..comments2023-12-02T00:38:46.467-08:00Comments on House Hunt Victoria: SkewmorphismHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger109125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-32232813007764318512013-08-12T15:08:52.364-07:002013-08-12T15:08:52.364-07:00Benjamin Tal, CIBC's housing expert and deputy...Benjamin Tal, CIBC's housing expert and deputy chief economist, wouldn't go as far as Madani in predicting a price correction of as much as 25 per cent, but he agrees the time has come for caution.<br /><br />"If I was a speculator, I would not be buying," he says. "The days of flipping houses and speculating on increasing prices are clearly coming to a close. We are in the ninth inning of this boom."<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Tal is a bit late to the game but finally he's going bear.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/building-permits-down-homes-sales-up-canada-s-housing-market-sending-mixed-signals-1.1406315?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer2cd97&utm_medium=twitter#ixzz2bnJkyaqV" rel="nofollow">Building permits down, homes sales up: Canada's housing market sending mixed signals</a>koozdrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16879691936698695299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91265487589458876132013-08-12T11:53:04.879-07:002013-08-12T11:53:04.879-07:00Calm before the storm?
"There is nothing to ...<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Business/ID/2400446749/" rel="nofollow">Calm before the storm?</a><br /><br />"There is nothing to panic about.." -interviewed realtor<br /><br />Well that puts my mind at ease.koozdrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16879691936698695299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84360028691527202692013-08-12T09:28:22.466-07:002013-08-12T09:28:22.466-07:00The time for trying a -10% offer is not yet at han...The time for trying a -10% offer is not yet at hand. Dropping 10% in the foreseeable future is an optimistic estimate on what is going to happen with our housing market.<br /><br />Building equity and real estate are becoming unrelated terms in this country.koozdrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16879691936698695299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-55465318531138552512013-08-12T08:53:02.468-07:002013-08-12T08:53:02.468-07:00Numbers Hack,
Are you not interested in the house...Numbers Hack,<br /><br />Are you not interested in the house at all? In otherwords, you don't care if it's a one-bedroom or a 5-bedroom. A thousand or three thousand square feet? <br /><br />Because if you don't care what you are living in - just the location. Then it sounds like you're speculating that property values are going to rebound and not continue to drift downwards.<br /><br />In my opinion, the improvements are just as important as the location in this market. And in some instances more important than location. Unless you are looking for a building site - but then you would be looking for a tear-down.<br /><br />And I will itterate what other posters have said. Basing your offer on the BC Assessment is not a good idea. Too many variables have an effect on value. An assessor may not have been inside that home for 30 years or more.<br /><br />Better to trust your own judgement than rely on an overworked government employee.Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64786737396515255982013-08-12T08:29:57.590-07:002013-08-12T08:29:57.590-07:00http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/...http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/after-decades-of-stoking-mortgages-ottawa-in-a-mess-of-its-own-making/article13705668/ <br /><br />caveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-77461936389838079242013-08-12T08:14:33.312-07:002013-08-12T08:14:33.312-07:00Monday, August 12, 2013 8:00am
MTD August
2013 2...Monday, August 12, 2013 8:00am<br /><br />MTD August <br />2013 2012 <br />Net Unconditional Sales: 181 462 <br />New Listings: 337 1,025 <br />Active Listings: 4,661 5,034 <br /><br />Please Note<br />•Left Column: stats so far this month<br />•Right Column: stats for the entire month from last yearMarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15023270761081894372013-08-12T08:13:39.392-07:002013-08-12T08:13:39.392-07:00All offers should be NORTH of 9.3% and see what pe...<i>All offers should be NORTH of 9.3% and see what people come back with, yes there will be some ruffled feathers, but the quantum on 1% is 1000$/for every $100K.</i><br /><br />9.3% off list price would be an outlier. <br /><br />In July 225 SFHs sold in the 400k-800k price range.<br /><br />Price original: $580,776<br />Price list: $568,017<br />Price sold: $553,507<br /><br />Price original does not include previous listings. <br /><br />There is a good opportunity to get a significant amount off price original in this market but off price list the spread is never more than 3% on average. 2-3% seems to be consistent irrelevant of the market. <br /><br />I think it just comes down to people making offers on the best priced properties. If a buyer sees 10 identical homes priced at 500k and the 11th one is 480k they will probably make an offer on it versus the previous 10.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-50198317238840299022013-08-12T08:04:14.821-07:002013-08-12T08:04:14.821-07:001666 Longacre just sold for some $200k over assess...<i>1666 Longacre just sold for some $200k over assessment. Extensive renos will do that</i><br /><br />+1, perfect example.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-89956369532418582672013-08-12T07:36:49.657-07:002013-08-12T07:36:49.657-07:00Yeah, sale/assessments only makes sense as an ove...Yeah, sale/assessments only makes sense as an overall gauge of the direction of the market. On individual places it doesn't make much sense to offer based on it. Sure if you have an average place then maybe you could try to use the assessment as a negotiating tool but I suspect sellers won't be moved by any arguments about how their house should be minus some percent of the assessed value.<br /><br />1666 Longacre just sold for some $200k over assessment. Extensive renos will do thatLeo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-84828507933795846512013-08-12T07:25:31.998-07:002013-08-12T07:25:31.998-07:00Putting too much weight into assessment value is n...Putting too much weight into assessment value is not a great idea in my opinion.<br /><br />Homes that have had a lot of upgrades and maintenance are much more likely to be worth more than assessment than those that have been neglected. <br /><br />However, using the assessment concept it will show that neglected homes are a better "deal" because you are buying them for a bigger percentage off assessment price.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-43659670694474804472013-08-12T07:17:02.098-07:002013-08-12T07:17:02.098-07:00“should I pull the trigger at -6%? haha
Or you co...“should I pull the trigger at -6%? haha<br /><br />Or you could <a href="http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/apa/3972186889.html" rel="nofollow">rent this place</a> for half the amount you could own it for and relax and see if the chips fall at -50%.<br /><br />http://www.timescolonist.com/business/with-home-boom-in-9th-inning-even-the-good-news-may-portend-trouble-1.575323Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00550264432110709714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-74542880340920224262013-08-12T02:30:49.504-07:002013-08-12T02:30:49.504-07:00***HOUSE PRICE ANALYSIS***
Guys, I am a new poster...***HOUSE PRICE ANALYSIS***<br />Guys, I am a new poster. But so here goes, your feedback right now would be greatly appreciated as we are deciding whether or not to buy or not buy right now. The following is the info for the areas of Oak Bay, Uplands, Fairfield and Cadboro Bay from $500K upwards in price: <br /><br />SOLD AND CLOSED: 22 Properties<br /> 8 Properties sold for UNDER ( avg -7.1%) of Assessed <br /> 14 Properties sold for OVER ( avg 14.0%+) of Assessed <br /><br />PENDING SALES: 61 Properties <br /> 30 Properties PENDING for UNDER (avg. -9.3%) of Assessed <br /> 31 Properties PENDING for OVER (avg. 7.1%) of Assessed <br /><br />CURRENT LISTINGS: 180 Properties<br /> 36 Properties ASKING for UNDER (avg. -6.4%) of Assessed <br /> 144 Properties ASKING for OVER (avg. 18.7%) of Assessed <br /><br />My analysis:<br />1/ Sold ratio of under to over assess was 1:2<br />2/ Pending ratio of under to over assess is now 1:1<br />3/ means more people are doing deals now in the over $500K with over 50% getting a 9.3% discount to market <br />4/ which means, for the short duration I have been looking at the data, THIS IS A BUYERS market in general <br />5/ THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, and the TREND is clearly DOWN. <br />6/ we have put an offer in for a big house at -6.0% of asking, and that was a MISTAKE from a numbers standpoint <br />7/ All offers should be NORTH of 9.3% and see what people come back with, yes there will be some ruffled feathers, but the quantum on 1% is 1000$/for every $100K. <br />8/ Assume assessments will come down 5-6% in all areas in 2014, you are only getting a 3% discount to market <br />9/ I DON’T KNOW how much the market will go down, I am no Oracle, but if you want to be satisfied with a purchase, being we are all CHEAPSKATES, one should aim for 10-15% off assessed <br /><br />What I learned through this process is MOST REALTORS are self-serving and will do anything to get the deal over the line, as their livelihoods count on it. You don’t sell, you don’t eat. There is a bunch of HUBRIS of BS that they try to justify, but the numbers above IMO is the most significant common denominator and one can use it for justification in getting a better price. OK good luck. <br /><br /><b>So if I really like something, but I don’t need it right now, should I pull the trigger at -6%? haha </b><br />Numbers Hackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04344895579234224854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-54011971640103088552013-08-12T01:23:28.468-07:002013-08-12T01:23:28.468-07:00Perhaps we're headed back to a US63 cent dolla...<i>Perhaps we're headed back to a US63 cent dollar and 2002 house prices.</i><br /><br />As someone who earns in USD, I certainly hope you're right there! I expect we'll be buying before we can see a return to 2002 prices, but at least if you <i>are</i> right we'll have a nice hedge in that case.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13903169117125578441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-539266746908575462013-08-12T01:20:42.024-07:002013-08-12T01:20:42.024-07:00Doesn't seem totally out of whack for Sooke. I...<i>Doesn't seem totally out of whack for Sooke. I had a listing in Gordon Head earlier this year sell for $665,000 with a finished basement featuring a two bedroom suite. The same home was purchased in 1993 for $320,000 with an unfinished basement.</i><br /><br />Just as a side note, according to this, inflation over the past 20 years has totaled 44%: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/<br /><br />So inflation alone would bring $320k to about $460k. <br /><br />(This caught my eye since we viewed a house with Marko today that iirc also sold in 1993 for, what was it, around $360k?)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13903169117125578441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-74315764137878146062013-08-11T23:22:24.744-07:002013-08-11T23:22:24.744-07:00And Sooke continues to correct. A 1,000 square foo...<i>And Sooke continues to correct. A 1,000 square foot rancher on a 7,400 square foot lot. Purchased 19 years ago for $135,000 and sells today for $220,000.</i> <br /><br />Doesn't seem totally out of whack for Sooke. I had a listing in Gordon Head earlier this year sell for $665,000 with a finished basement featuring a two bedroom suite. The same home was purchased in 1993 for $320,000 with an unfinished basement.<br /><br />If you adjusted for improvements it didn't even double in 20 years so doesn't surprise me that something in Sooke went from $135,000 to $220,000.Markohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08315282480144281935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-39802653243758565642013-08-11T19:30:06.012-07:002013-08-11T19:30:06.012-07:00And Sooke continues to correct. A 1,000 square fo...And Sooke continues to correct. A 1,000 square foot rancher on a 7,400 square foot lot. Purchased 19 years ago for $135,000 and sells today for $220,000. <br /><br />If this type of correction were to spread into Victoria that would make the typical home drop from $575,000 to $353,000.<br /><br />That's still too high for a war shack in Fernwood!Johnny-Dollarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950799399842707067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-67445588815501397502013-08-11T16:47:52.615-07:002013-08-11T16:47:52.615-07:00And the rise in the C$ since 2002 has likely had ...And the rise in the C$ since 2002 has likely had much to do with the rise in RE prices. It has resulted in substantial savings in the costs of imported shoes and shirts, computers and car parts, foreign travel, ships for the BC Ferries Corporation and off-shored services of many kinds. These savings have contributed substantially to the ability of Canadians to allocate a large fraction of income to housing. The rise in the C$ has also made Canada a prime target for foreign investment in RE.<br /><br />If the dollar were now to retreat, these positive effects on RE would be reversed. The rise in US oil production is negative for the C$ and underlies US resistance to XL pipeline. Trouble with E-W pipelines is another negative for the C$ and has already resulted in abandonment of major oilsands developments. China's eonomic slowdown is another negative for the C$. <br /><br />Perhaps we're headed back to a US63 cent dollar and 2002 house prices.<br /><br />CShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03399620869685840906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-38308289890116279862013-08-11T16:47:19.757-07:002013-08-11T16:47:19.757-07:00And the rise in the C$ since 2002 has likely had ...And the rise in the C$ since 2002 has likely had much to do with the rise in RE prices. It has resulted in substantial savings in the costs of imported shoes and shirts, computers and car parts, foreign travel, ships for the BC Ferries Corporation and off-shored services of many kinds. These savings have contributed substantially to the ability of Canadians to allocate a large fraction of income to housing. The rise in the C$ has also made Canada a prime target for foreign investment in RE.<br /><br />If the dollar were now to retreat, these positive effects on RE would be reversed. The rise in US oil production is negative for the C$ and underlies US resistance to XL pipeline. Trouble with E-W pipelines is another negative for the C$ and has already resulted in abandonment of major oilsands developments. China's eonomic slowdown is another negative for the C$. <br /><br />Perhaps we're headed back to a US63 cent dollar and 2002 house prices.<br /><br />CShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03399620869685840906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91389746148893085832013-08-11T14:42:30.688-07:002013-08-11T14:42:30.688-07:00But if the $C slipped back to 63 cents US, then, a...But if the $C slipped back to 63 cents US, then, all other things being equal, our house prices in US dollars would be off 37%.<br /><br />Which means, if you look at prices in US dollar terms, the rise in Canadian house prices since 2002 has been a truly astounding 200% plus, which suggests that something soon has to give. CShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03399620869685840906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-55760935278329139832013-08-11T12:57:52.805-07:002013-08-11T12:57:52.805-07:00sounds like somebody bought more propertysounds like somebody bought more propertyPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00550264432110709714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-9063245020768834312013-08-11T12:18:32.693-07:002013-08-11T12:18:32.693-07:00we do have a very small household size. Lots of pe...<i>we do have a very small household size. Lots of people living alone in small houses. Protracted raised unemployment or rising rates and suddenly those people are moving back in with their family or taking in roommates</i><br /><br />But aren't those small households mainly of the elderly, who aren't going to consolidate with anyone or anything until they "compounded are with clay" or moved to a care facility, plus the young occupying tiny condos, which they may be able to hang onto even during a period on EI or even just welfare?<br /><br />Then there are the millionaire second home owners, unaffected by the local economy, whose year-round occupancy of their Victoria getaway probably averages less than one person per household.<br /><br />So the scope for consolidation may be limited. <br /><br />And the risk of protracted recession is probably less here than in most places because of our massive reliance on foreign trade combined with a highly flexible currency. The $CAD is up about 70% against the greenback since 2002, and if necessary there's no reason why it should not slide to 63 cents US once again, which would give us huge competitive advantage over US mine, mills, factories and service companies.CShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03399620869685840906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-77927304618125130962013-08-11T09:32:10.228-07:002013-08-11T09:32:10.228-07:00Welcome to Craigslist, MLS friend.
$2500 / 4br - ...Welcome to Craigslist, MLS friend.<br /><br /><a href="http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/search/apa?query=&useMap=1&zoomToPosting=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=&housing_type=" rel="nofollow">$2500 / 4br - 2500ft² - Highland lakefront Home (Highlands Fork lake Rd. )</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=13395556&PidKey=-1261880196" rel="nofollow">325783</a><br /><br />When the only thing that passes through your open house is tumbleweeds come to Craigslist. We have plenty of room.koozdrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16879691936698695299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8229232108379221612013-08-11T07:54:09.437-07:002013-08-11T07:54:09.437-07:00Alone in large houses ratherAlone in large houses ratherLeo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-35982778195784936192013-08-10T22:09:49.227-07:002013-08-10T22:09:49.227-07:00The one option that might surprise people is house...The one option that might surprise people is household consolidation. Yes we dot have massive overbuilding but we do have a very small household size. Lots of people living alone in small houses. Protracted raised unemployment or rising rates and suddenly those people are moving back in with their family or taking in roommates and houses are suddenly availableLeo Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-8836142411198204242013-08-10T21:59:44.059-07:002013-08-10T21:59:44.059-07:00I warn you, Mr Carney – a housing bubble is coming...<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/kamal-ahmed/10235529/I-warn-you-Mr-Carney-a-housing-bubble-is-coming.html" rel="nofollow">I warn you, Mr Carney – a housing bubble is coming</a><br /><br />Low rates causing a housing bubble? That's just a theory.koozdrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16879691936698695299noreply@blogger.com