tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71235422606928601772024-03-07T16:51:00.410-08:00House Hunt VictoriaVictoria, BC real estate blog - "because we never know when interest rates will be increased to stimulate the economy" ~ VREBHouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.comBlogger724125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-10531899423168092742015-05-13T22:34:00.000-07:002015-12-21T14:04:13.355-08:00And so it goes<span style="font-size: x-large;">The HouseHuntVictoria blog has moved to <a href="http://househuntvictoria.ca/">http://househuntvictoria.ca</a>.</span><br />
<br />
Well after a brief burst this spring with more regular updates, it looks like we're back to irregular and late updates. This has forced the issue for me somewhat of whether I realistically will maintain this blog going forward. There are a number of changes I'd like to make to the blog as a whole, but unfortunately without ownership of it I can only post articles. In the spring I tried to contact HouseHuntVictoria several times about transferring ownership, but he is either not monitoring the email anymore or has moved on permanently. <br />
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So as Adam Carolla <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8hI8XbaeQU">says</a>, in the end you have to ask a question about any activity you're doing:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: large;">"Does it make you money or does it make you happy?"</span></i><br />
<i>(and if the answer is no, move the f**k on)</i> </div>
<br />
This blog has never made me any money, but it has certainly been a rewarding experience in other ways over the years. It helped me tremendously with understanding the factors influencing the direction of the market, and has given me the information I needed to make a decision on whether to buy and when. However I feel I've reached a point where I've analyzed the market every which way I can think of with the public data that is available. All that would be left to do going forward is parrot Marko's and VREB's updates, while many new happiness or money generating activities compete for my time. So with that I'm unfortunately going to bow out formally from posting further articles. While I will miss the discussion here, I'm hoping that some of it will continue in other forums such as <a href="http://vibrantvictoria.ca/forum/">VibrantVictoria</a>, where I will likely occasionally post updates on market trends as the fancy strikes. <br />
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I would like to thank the many commenters on this blog that have contributed information or stimulating debate. I would have quit years ago if it wasn't for the discussion here. Thanks especially to Marko for the inside track information and regular updates, Just Jack for the detailed analyses of submarkets and humour, our chief halibut and investment god dasmo, the always sensible DavidL, Koozdra for providing me all the regional data, as well as caveat emptor, patriotz, CS, totoro, Double Agent, Roger, and many many others. Most of all thanks to HHV for letting me post all this time. I've learned a huge amount from you all.<br />
<br />
Here's a graph for the road.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5KZav5eCxHWrT3k0N3vDDo8QBHTe2zQ5rQ7aYrGtpS0sSERCTf2oljLaJt2FoH_5t9jq9jHJCB42nKKRWlxTQfAmazNl7upS1QEsJS_a7jhj9GMFsigmeUDAgIXOWZQZYwUh39oyOlMQL/s1600/markets.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5KZav5eCxHWrT3k0N3vDDo8QBHTe2zQ5rQ7aYrGtpS0sSERCTf2oljLaJt2FoH_5t9jq9jHJCB42nKKRWlxTQfAmazNl7upS1QEsJS_a7jhj9GMFsigmeUDAgIXOWZQZYwUh39oyOlMQL/s640/markets.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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Cheers,<br />
LeoLeo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com57tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-88739429317885316112015-04-21T07:39:00.003-07:002015-04-21T07:39:53.254-07:00April 21 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
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<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>April 2015</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>April</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2014</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">102</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
264</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">479</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
664</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">223</td><td style="text-align: center;">561</td><td style="text-align: center;">879</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1521</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3758</td><td style="text-align: center;">3870</td><td style="text-align: center;">3894</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4404</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
46%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">47%</td><td style="text-align: center;">54%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
44%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">726</td><td style="text-align: center;">810</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
6.6<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Real lack of new listings coming on out there. Last year at this point we had somewhat fewer sales (436) but quite a few more listings (1073). A year ago sales flagged a bit and I thought maybe it was the beginning of the end of the trend of YoY improvements, but here we are a year later with no sign of it stopping yet.</div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com255tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-65703477533680598372015-04-07T22:51:00.000-07:002015-04-07T22:53:48.793-07:00Happy April<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.rentseeker.ca/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RS_infographic_sal-v-home-_low-res-02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.rentseeker.ca/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/RS_infographic_sal-v-home-_low-res-02.jpg" height="640" width="580" /></a></div>
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Well maybe 734 people last month earn $100k in Victoria. Or maybe it's a big debt orgy. </div>
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Well it just got a little harder with CMHC <a href="http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2015/04/cmhc-hikes-premiums-again.html">raising rates by 15%</a> (about $2700 extra for the average Victoria home), which we can expect to continue as the government fights to keep the housing market from boiling over. <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV+Shows/The+National/Canada/ID/2655709671/">Doubling the TFSA contribution limit</a> plays into this as well by encouraging people to invest in things other than real estate. Of course the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/19-of-respondents-didn-t-save-a-dime-in-2014-bmo-survey-suggests-1.3023609">tax on zero is still zero</a>. </div>
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A good month for the home market in Victoria though. At 5 months of inventory we're solidly in balanced market overall, but as we know from Just Jack's finer analysis, this is only the average of a pretty hot core and a languishing westshore. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3INYhvwBdmggHXCCzcqg_EL9qEYxC6BUrNCbMKYTnaPSgrrSFWFqA_-t7_mz7SyduPiMEGGRAzFqbXLsiISDr476VYBFPJEhqzLrGPMovQ59MOm2iX1hSS0RsoH6q4x_LnnJcmX3ME33Q/s1600/marchyearly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3INYhvwBdmggHXCCzcqg_EL9qEYxC6BUrNCbMKYTnaPSgrrSFWFqA_-t7_mz7SyduPiMEGGRAzFqbXLsiISDr476VYBFPJEhqzLrGPMovQ59MOm2iX1hSS0RsoH6q4x_LnnJcmX3ME33Q/s1600/marchyearly.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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That trend of improving market shows no sign of stopping yet.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFC_uCJUuT3PVYid60_kPZX2SjE6Qz6RNHxWK_WYkSHkFoTiqn289jckX8bzOJuj7_NIWk2OSKvcSVD7Xoigrc0fp8dJ0bWdA2Qt7bV1xQxokFzWeUSD2aiP44VWvV-3mlbMXPh0vL2GlO/s1600/dfpmarch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFC_uCJUuT3PVYid60_kPZX2SjE6Qz6RNHxWK_WYkSHkFoTiqn289jckX8bzOJuj7_NIWk2OSKvcSVD7Xoigrc0fp8dJ0bWdA2Qt7bV1xQxokFzWeUSD2aiP44VWvV-3mlbMXPh0vL2GlO/s1600/dfpmarch.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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Sales up 22% YtD over last year. Even though I guessed the highest it looks like I was far too pessimistic in my yearly sales forecast. </div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com124tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-39538737303242915002015-03-23T21:30:00.001-07:002015-03-23T21:31:42.396-07:00March 23 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
<br />
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>March 2015</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>March</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2014</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">132</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
307</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">491</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
575</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">396</td><td style="text-align: center;">707</td><td style="text-align: center;">1040</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1286</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3562</td><td style="text-align: center;">3633</td><td style="text-align: center;">3693</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4050</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
33%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">43%</td><td style="text-align: center;">47%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
45%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">675</td><td style="text-align: center;">720</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
7.0<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Last time we had over 700 sales in march was 5 years ago at 789. Before that it was 2007 (833 sales). So not a hot market yet (that would be between 800 and 900 sales with an inventory of half of what we have now) but decent. Enough to draw the bulls out of the woodwork at least.</div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com338tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64947279157215766302015-03-18T19:07:00.001-07:002015-03-18T19:07:16.521-07:00March 16 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>March 2015</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>March</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2014</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">132</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
307</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
575</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">396</td><td style="text-align: center;">707</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1286</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3562</td><td style="text-align: center;">3633</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4050</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
33%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">43%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
45%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">675</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
7.0<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
More listings than last year, but even more sales. Last year this week we had only a 39% sales/list ratio. </div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com177tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-51548854480198778382015-03-09T17:23:00.002-07:002015-03-09T17:23:46.844-07:00March 9th Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>March 2015</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>March</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2014</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">132</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
575</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">396</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1286</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3562</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4050</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
33%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
45%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
7.0<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
This week last year we also had exactly 132 sales. There are 10% more new listings coming online this year though so the months of declining inventory might be limited. </div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com210tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-66534521332617187922015-03-02T20:30:00.001-08:002015-03-02T20:30:31.890-08:00February 2015 Monthly Stats<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Pretty strong February. Sales up 31%, inventory down 8%. The trend towards improving market continues at a surprisingly steady clip, with prices matching inflation for the last year and a half. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj8baYxL4hPw5BskSjgYL0v3VXGVWqgxNKio48sf4OdyjsuUTFNEvSpgZjVh2NSMhp6xMlDhczxpUuSBr0NIE1DkXv5G153QpK3ksK7GqJUug6GFtrcy3CO3fo-2jrybO3iJsBZH4vpRPA/s1600/yearlymoimarch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj8baYxL4hPw5BskSjgYL0v3VXGVWqgxNKio48sf4OdyjsuUTFNEvSpgZjVh2NSMhp6xMlDhczxpUuSBr0NIE1DkXv5G153QpK3ksK7GqJUug6GFtrcy3CO3fo-2jrybO3iJsBZH4vpRPA/s1600/yearlymoimarch.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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SFH prices basically dead flat from last year. If we see another strong month though this graph will jump.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnGorZDUVsM6d02QNMSkjWjk9eFP8P9NVVhbu58OtwUHHK_yYhdmhiErFHYEki9GTRxYcsYWl8ZYbThJb5ip4CaGXkiBfdWPYVuzdSyYurOsVNWi8aeAYRFbqaa8Q_AJsU0iTMu_mX7h5_/s1600/dfpmarch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnGorZDUVsM6d02QNMSkjWjk9eFP8P9NVVhbu58OtwUHHK_yYhdmhiErFHYEki9GTRxYcsYWl8ZYbThJb5ip4CaGXkiBfdWPYVuzdSyYurOsVNWi8aeAYRFbqaa8Q_AJsU0iTMu_mX7h5_/s1600/dfpmarch.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTUkUVLxi9DeI0NR5bzoTTodRKOaky2cg2cGwFwmclo-N83kRakGEtHKj5_wTwUTs5BK2-lL1D2UyjYO0bmKa2kDoFzliG4JgFLyRnyFUHOUBuypcxhmJfA6nE0jkvOHeF0oQZBQN9APGZ/s1600/snlmarch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTUkUVLxi9DeI0NR5bzoTTodRKOaky2cg2cGwFwmclo-N83kRakGEtHKj5_wTwUTs5BK2-lL1D2UyjYO0bmKa2kDoFzliG4JgFLyRnyFUHOUBuypcxhmJfA6nE0jkvOHeF0oQZBQN9APGZ/s1600/snlmarch.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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Another way to visualize the change in the market since 2013 is to look at the change in inventory from the same month the year before.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA98F8VYlkz4n_S0tDwbShmyNfC8uS-ZTd1s1sjO3IjjuaIzlaX9atGeRFXRQKhGIS70nZA5ArS8Z2SFdm4iKKsL0CJLXvaRZsOeE9daHpBIhaYpiUwXa8AHAE-FQmNT5jL7gfStl1MyyQ/s1600/marchyoyinventory.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA98F8VYlkz4n_S0tDwbShmyNfC8uS-ZTd1s1sjO3IjjuaIzlaX9atGeRFXRQKhGIS70nZA5ArS8Z2SFdm4iKKsL0CJLXvaRZsOeE9daHpBIhaYpiUwXa8AHAE-FQmNT5jL7gfStl1MyyQ/s1600/marchyoyinventory.png" height="340" width="640" /></a></div>
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Only sign of anything different is an increase in new listings over last year. Haven't seen that since last May. With more chatter of a better market, it might lure some potential sellers out of the woodwork this spring.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEyHWjJ12YXOBH9vTgNqhMzcaHeALGRjIzMbWNvITlb_11c4F1IbTH9b-Gd_RZAtO0j4js_O25rvnvbu4DuZ4WanFzYQiWxCRdGH5CWBvdHh_g9M9mUxUyY3pVypFimw3gv4XdZ93CYvr2/s1600/yoynl.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEyHWjJ12YXOBH9vTgNqhMzcaHeALGRjIzMbWNvITlb_11c4F1IbTH9b-Gd_RZAtO0j4js_O25rvnvbu4DuZ4WanFzYQiWxCRdGH5CWBvdHh_g9M9mUxUyY3pVypFimw3gv4XdZ93CYvr2/s1600/yoynl.png" height="388" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com274tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-45697512329556827522015-02-23T18:07:00.000-08:002015-02-24T09:09:56.145-08:00Feb 23 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
<br />
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Feb 2015</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Feb</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2014</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td><b>Wk 3</b></td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">118</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
226</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">396</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
412</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">352</td><td style="text-align: center;">587</td><td style="text-align: center;">877</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1064</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3324</td><td style="text-align: center;">3401</td><td style="text-align: center;">3448</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
3770</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
34%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">39%</td><td style="text-align: center;">45%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
39%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">452</td><td style="text-align: center;">528</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
9.1<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Strong week so expect over 500 sales for the month. If this week matches last we could hit almost 570 sales which would be the highest since 2010. </div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com156tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-91773775903459919512015-02-16T22:23:00.001-08:002015-02-16T22:23:32.708-08:00Feb 16 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Feb 2015</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Feb</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2014</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td><b>Wk 2</b></td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">118</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
226</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
412</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">352</td><td style="text-align: center;">587</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1064</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3324</td><td style="text-align: center;">3401</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
3770</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
34%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">39%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
39%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">452</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
9.1<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Relatively strong first two weeks with sales pace about 10% higher than last year. Those interest rates might be luring a few buyers out of the woodwork. </div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com194tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-22714915159189010082015-01-26T17:42:00.002-08:002015-01-26T17:42:44.859-08:00Jan 26 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
<br />
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Jan 2015</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Jan</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2014</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td><b>Wk 3</b></td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">83</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
165</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">265</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
342</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">286</td><td style="text-align: center;">541</td><td style="text-align: center;">786</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1090</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3020</td><td style="text-align: center;">3121</td><td style="text-align: center;">3198</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
3489</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
29%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">30%</td><td style="text-align: center;">34%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
31%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">302</td><td style="text-align: center;">342</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
10.2<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Should be somewhat above last year's total given accelerating sales pace, but likely not a lot. About 360-370 I'm guessing.</div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com210tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-39504861959876074412015-01-21T20:13:00.002-08:002015-01-21T21:15:07.877-08:002015 Predictions"<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">I'll bet rates stay at 1% for another year." - me two weeks ago.</span><br />
Well I'm not getting any more accurate, but at least I'm wrong more quickly. <br />
<br />
Time to lay it out for 2015. We're in the middle of some pretty momentous changes with oil (and oil related <a href="http://i.imgur.com/eS0I3Ai.png">investments</a>) dropping through the floor. Now the Bank of Canada has surprised everyone with a rate cut. Will the rate cut stimulate the local housing market with lower mortgage rates? Or is it a sign of a slower economy that will drag on the market?<br />
<br />
How are those numbers doing anyway?<br />
<br />
Current prices and HPI. Median down a bit in recent months.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQLPRyp01dMbVRgnJQg8xsKVlyP0uCrRbQ3LvwEyQ54VNZfQsCmF7cA4cddueXGDH9oLqWzXkvLzJ06JT-p2k_1DEuVG7quIwxGp5PA790NylG5BxU7Eg9tZL4zJnq9JT91NDdwyMC72Pp/s1600/2015teranet.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQLPRyp01dMbVRgnJQg8xsKVlyP0uCrRbQ3LvwEyQ54VNZfQsCmF7cA4cddueXGDH9oLqWzXkvLzJ06JT-p2k_1DEuVG7quIwxGp5PA790NylG5BxU7Eg9tZL4zJnq9JT91NDdwyMC72Pp/s1600/2015teranet.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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Months of inventory<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYIsEMs2QxsRMSN6WcTj2WapQFyaIWfRgZsclgV8cpCTmD1I_ZyJwMep4AGABwwOBoch3CvSR6cT7fDKotHi9xDC5pUbxFrggrN_ruxNRE4KMxvXmtCRHo2bxn9QAO26Ku673Og0h3mmSa/s1600/2015moi.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYIsEMs2QxsRMSN6WcTj2WapQFyaIWfRgZsclgV8cpCTmD1I_ZyJwMep4AGABwwOBoch3CvSR6cT7fDKotHi9xDC5pUbxFrggrN_ruxNRE4KMxvXmtCRHo2bxn9QAO26Ku673Og0h3mmSa/s1600/2015moi.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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Annual rolling averages. Months of inventory still going down at a good clip. Prince increases flattening out lately.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgcIuLQd7cZz5zfuTvHWk9toTMgLk6MSus4SrukxEQlv8WXAnnaagM8wE-BDmRNYPgUSBwoCBz8ujMq8poVT4NBWs_FsmsvPordYE32gfDPrcrGZHwSv1O8qzlZXWunfO24LkgAIvf5mYK/s1600/2015ymoi.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgcIuLQd7cZz5zfuTvHWk9toTMgLk6MSus4SrukxEQlv8WXAnnaagM8wE-BDmRNYPgUSBwoCBz8ujMq8poVT4NBWs_FsmsvPordYE32gfDPrcrGZHwSv1O8qzlZXWunfO24LkgAIvf5mYK/s1600/2015ymoi.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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Sales to new listings. Still trending positive.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFphlUuuezaTLh6VxM2bE6cZcMxtayY-IoSErO0O6MiLhyKpYQYn1dv9xU4MNm3Kc-nZ0aWBaFQqDUp-Fbx4MCq_X_72PcB9i_cU2MnRynqUTJ_KavqTjaycN55d3bwKWc81wy_muvENqz/s1600/2015stl.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFphlUuuezaTLh6VxM2bE6cZcMxtayY-IoSErO0O6MiLhyKpYQYn1dv9xU4MNm3Kc-nZ0aWBaFQqDUp-Fbx4MCq_X_72PcB9i_cU2MnRynqUTJ_KavqTjaycN55d3bwKWc81wy_muvENqz/s1600/2015stl.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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Relative to peak prices.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKDsKNn90GlMCrqhFpUULfNZza5mG0QE9VIjRDO4IISqJAnILWtcIXqk60leyVFlMEgCQKC2OIhhmpSSwrApk6KXP0USZ7TIt56_-mZB2NGlIfZ8soi259YIam1nF4d9O2LXN7wWHUTH55/s1600/2015dfp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKDsKNn90GlMCrqhFpUULfNZza5mG0QE9VIjRDO4IISqJAnILWtcIXqk60leyVFlMEgCQKC2OIhhmpSSwrApk6KXP0USZ7TIt56_-mZB2NGlIfZ8soi259YIam1nF4d9O2LXN7wWHUTH55/s1600/2015dfp.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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Affordability bigger picture stuff. Income gains and interest rates drops causing affordability to steadily increase.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHDdBrYBESClKiH5s3U-6LdbCIENk4gcjlkDTPvLrSAxdYycJEoN881P0Pt8ktbT9KYvKR9LMgfFhR7a0ZuRXWHQNdDK3B17Ad2uhvidASQrrvzDxOHrrrZXMBzMJUA38e8EC1w-iRJomq/s1600/2015affordable.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHDdBrYBESClKiH5s3U-6LdbCIENk4gcjlkDTPvLrSAxdYycJEoN881P0Pt8ktbT9KYvKR9LMgfFhR7a0ZuRXWHQNdDK3B17Ad2uhvidASQrrvzDxOHrrrZXMBzMJUA38e8EC1w-iRJomq/s1600/2015affordable.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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The 5 year lending rate recently cracked an all time low at 3.98%. Looks like the journey down isn't quite done yet.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsGEE9i-Puo8olu9CptsooMrqvjV4POuv1yfuE80wSc8crDqycjM_QngXD_BFgj1gDWHlGAo5ffCwKV8WKGepSzbusxAHJZKUoZBgp9-2NtS81iAJt9sQIEIa_oOIw0EQZmUd3z_v6dhkS/s1600/2015rates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsGEE9i-Puo8olu9CptsooMrqvjV4POuv1yfuE80wSc8crDqycjM_QngXD_BFgj1gDWHlGAo5ffCwKV8WKGepSzbusxAHJZKUoZBgp9-2NtS81iAJt9sQIEIa_oOIw0EQZmUd3z_v6dhkS/s1600/2015rates.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
This year I'm guess we will see the Bank of Canada battle outright deflation. If oil stays low for a while longer things won't look so pretty, and it might cost the conservatives the government in the fall.<br />
<br />
In Victoria, I'm guessing a small improvement over last year's numbers but more or less more of the same, with the month over month increases petering out by springtime. Prices will remain the same pulled down a bit by more first timers entering the market.<br />
Total sales: 7200<br />
2015 Average SFH price: $610,000<br />
BoC Interest rate: 0.75%<br />
Teranet June 2015: 138<br />
Teranet Dec 2015: 140<br />
<br />Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-52862963621588665322015-01-05T20:34:00.001-08:002015-01-05T21:18:47.458-08:00New years prediction roundupEnd of the year and the annual numbers are in. How did we do in last year's <a href="http://househuntvictoria.blogspot.ca/2014/01/2014-predictions.html">predictions</a>?<br />
<br />
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr><td><b></b></td><td><b>Leo</b></td><td><b>Koozdra</b></td><td><b>Marko</b></td><td><b>Caveat Emptor</b></td><td><b>Patriotz</b></td><td><b>Reasonfirst</b></td><td><b>ACTUAL</b></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales</b></td><td>6200</td><td>5300</td><td>6400</td><td>6000</td><td>---</td><td>6100</td><td>6699</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>SFH 6 month average</b></td><td>$580,000</td><td>$550,000</td><td>$585,000</td><td>$565,000</td><td>---</td><td>---</td><td>$609,342*</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>BoC Interest Rate</b></td><td>1%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>1%</td><td>0.75%</td><td>---</td><td>1.25%</td><td>1%</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Teranet June 2014</b></td><td>128</td><td>130</td><td>132</td><td>131</td><td>129</td><td>128</td><td>136.2</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Teranet Dec 2014</b></td><td>124</td><td>126</td><td>131</td><td>128</td><td>124</td><td>125</td><td>TBD (Nov: 138.2)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
* The 6 month average SFH price does not appear to be published anymore. This is the annual average.<br />
<br />
Overall we all sucked. Marko wins for being closest on every measure; that's why he gets paid the big bucks. <br />
<br />
Other predictions:<br />
<i>"House prices across the Canadian housing market may peak in 2014. Victoria's big price declines will likely begin after the Canadian housing market peaks and it is evident that house prices across Canada have begun to correct."</i> - Info<br />
<br />
<i>"further controls will be added to the mortgage market but I think at least one of them will be head line grabbing. I'm going to go with regional caps re-established on CMHC insurance."</i> - Koozdra (some minor tweaks happened)<br />
<br />
<i>"I think we will see a drop in prices of approximately 5% by December (in Oak Bay)"</i> - totoro<br />
<br />
<i>"In short, 2014 to early 2015 will see a sharp transition. This will result in either a significant increase in MOI or significantly lower prices; probably a combination of both."</i> - LeoM<br />
<br />
<i>"MLS HPI (2014): - 4%"</i> - Info (Actual: Up 2.1%)
<br />
<br />
<i>"Any generalized market prediction would be meaningless in this market."</i> - Just Jack<br />
<br />
Assessments are also in and overall seem to be pretty flat except for in the <a href="http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/property-values-plummet-on-mayne-and-saturna-islands-1.1704457">periphery</a>. <br />
<br />
In important economic news, oil prices below $50 a barrel. How long can the oil sands withstand operating at a loss before those camp jobs start evaporating?Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com187tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-1526423139003166622014-12-15T16:27:00.002-08:002014-12-22T14:28:13.738-08:00Dec 15 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><b>Updated Dec 22</b></span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Dec 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Dec</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2013</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td><b>Wk 3</b></td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">112</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
198</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">306</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
355</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">148</td><td style="text-align: center;">271</td><td style="text-align: center;">348</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
437</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3455</td><td style="text-align: center;">3406</td><td style="text-align: center;">3301</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
3554</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
76%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">73%</td><td style="text-align: center;">88%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
81%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">455</td><td style="text-align: center;">469</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
10<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
We won't be hitting the estimate as sales will drop off significantly at the tail end of the month. Likely closer to 400. Some signs of a slowdown with the Teranet composite <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-show-signs-of-cooling-in-november-1.2871413">down 0.3%</a> in November with many cities showing a decline, including yours truly. CMHC also continues to tinker, <a href="http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2014/12/more-bad-news-for-tiny-lenders.html">hiking fees</a> to insure mortgage backed securities by up to 200%. <br />
<br />
<b>Update: </b>A while back there was some chatter about the appreciation rates of condos and single family homes. I would think that since "they ain't making any more land", the appreciation rate for condos would lag that of SFHs. So I took a simplistic look at the appreciation rates for both over all 5 year periods over the last 25 odd years and here's the result.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjckJ7EDMoBzpvHFNXT77TEouFVt8De7odpHhy3ljBaEWtx2cVo9GazJkH5TwD6CvcbCP5wXvldB0Fwo7Vkp-I7BOpBeB6geKBo6ueyTrRhQS1Ihse5LuNfbJ0nuJr7dPwpjlTuBrVZmsvq/s1600/appreciation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjckJ7EDMoBzpvHFNXT77TEouFVt8De7odpHhy3ljBaEWtx2cVo9GazJkH5TwD6CvcbCP5wXvldB0Fwo7Vkp-I7BOpBeB6geKBo6ueyTrRhQS1Ihse5LuNfbJ0nuJr7dPwpjlTuBrVZmsvq/s1600/appreciation.png" height="420" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The rates are closer than I thought, but there definitely is a difference between the two. Average 5 year appreciation is 38% for SFHs, and 32% for condos (or ~1% a year). I would suspect that a re-sale based index would show a somewhat wider difference. <br />
The condo market is also a bit more volatile, with a range from a 20% drop over 5 years to a 128% increase, while SFHs have ranged from a drop of only 7% to an increase of 109%. <br />
<br /></div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com174tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-24395081841279622572014-11-26T08:18:00.000-08:002014-11-26T08:18:16.555-08:00Nov 25 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Nov 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Nov</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2013</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td><b>Wk 3</b></td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">137</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
234</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">357</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
412</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">195</td><td style="text-align: center;">366</td><td style="text-align: center;">516</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
698</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3722</td><td style="text-align: center;">3685</td><td style="text-align: center;">3639</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4017</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
70%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">64%</td><td style="text-align: center;">69%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
59%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">468</td><td style="text-align: center;">476</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
9.8<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br /></div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com225tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-64935710102821342792014-11-11T20:17:00.002-08:002014-11-11T20:18:26.089-08:00Nov 10 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Nov 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Nov</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> 2013</b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Wk 1</b></td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">137</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
412</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">195</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
698</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">3722</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4017</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
70%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
59%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
9.8<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Pretty comparable sales to this week last year but with somewhat lower inventory and fewer new listings coming online.</div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com169tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-16644687411901051302014-10-20T18:21:00.001-07:002014-10-20T18:21:06.818-07:00Oct 20 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Oct 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><b>Oct</b><br />
<b> 2013</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td><b>Wk 3</b></td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">83</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
230</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">356</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
512</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">178</td><td style="text-align: center;">393</td><td style="text-align: center;">556</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
979</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">4100</td><td style="text-align: center;">4060</td><td style="text-align: center;">3988</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4322</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
47%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">59%</td><td style="text-align: center;">64%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
52%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">661</td><td style="text-align: center;">630</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
8.4<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
There has been some discussion about <a href="http://www.integratedmortgageplanners.com/blog/mortgage-market-updates/do-higher-interest-rates-cause-lower-house-prices/">this piece </a>of "analysis" by a mortgage broker. His theory is that when interest rates go up, so do prices. Apparently in the last 30 years, increasing mortgage rates lead to increasing prices 62% of the time 2 months later. Never mind that the two month lag is never justified (as Just Jack said, a 3 month rate hold would blow that out of the water). The obvious gaping hole in this theory is that prices have been increasing for most of that 30 year period, so it's not at all surprising that 62% of the months they went up. If someone were to care to evaluate the entire period they would probably find more than 62% of months that showed increasing prices.</div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com279tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-15256359793929573552014-10-14T09:51:00.001-07:002014-10-14T09:52:18.582-07:00Oct 14 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Oct 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><b>Oct</b><br />
<b> 2013</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td><b>Wk 2</b></td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">83</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
230</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
512</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">178</td><td style="text-align: center;">393</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
979</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">4100</td><td style="text-align: center;">4060</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4322</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
47%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">59%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
52%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">--</td><td style="text-align: center;">661</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
8.4<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Per Marko's request. We're still (almost) the weakest market in the country for the past 7 years. Edged out Edmonton in the last couple months but I suspect when September numbers are out we will be in last place.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWF6cKTVLe-mz5cVRpDxLLdclJfv9QgfYqOc8zrT3Tv1SI1SW8ZeUUGvVIdIorcnCUmqY4scobf28TYs6fOPVKMos0yVzhdGNBFu3iU47-DEswvE_f6yL9uUkrg7-nXePucz7r5DUVKWZe/s1600/t2008.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWF6cKTVLe-mz5cVRpDxLLdclJfv9QgfYqOc8zrT3Tv1SI1SW8ZeUUGvVIdIorcnCUmqY4scobf28TYs6fOPVKMos0yVzhdGNBFu3iU47-DEswvE_f6yL9uUkrg7-nXePucz7r5DUVKWZe/s1600/t2008.png" height="434" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com141tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-1156682272598977162014-10-11T00:24:00.000-07:002014-10-11T00:24:06.754-07:00What it cost to run our house.In case anyone is wondering what it costs to run a pretty typical house, here is ours for last year:<br />
<br />
Gordon head, 1970s build, ~2100sqft. 2 adults 1 child upstairs, 1 adult in suite downstairs. <br />
<br />
<br />
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<tr height="30" style="height: 30.0pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="30" style="height: 30pt; text-align: right; width: 65pt;" width="65">Month</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: right; width: 65pt;" width="65">Hydro</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: right; width: 65pt;" width="65">Gas</td>
<td class="xl70" style="text-align: center; width: 77pt;" width="77"> Water/Sewer /Garbage</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: right; width: 65pt;" width="65">Property Tax</td>
<td class="xl68" style="text-align: right; width: 65pt;" width="65">Insurance</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">January</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $172.67 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $86.25 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $200.91 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">February</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $164.64 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $104.95 </td>
<td class="xl63"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">March</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $164.64 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $78.70 </td>
<td class="xl63"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">April</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $96.83 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $78.29 </td>
<td class="xl63"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">May</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $96.83 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $65.17 </td>
<td class="xl63"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">June</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $57.49 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $59.59 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $222.13 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">July</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $57.49 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $45.90 </td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $2,897.88 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"> $957.00 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">August</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"> $57.69 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $79.23 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">September</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $57.69 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $70.33 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">October</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $110.68 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $50.91 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $263.32 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">November</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $110.68 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $75.68 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl64" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">December</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $172.67 </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $86.47 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl63" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl69" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;"> Total Utilities </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> $2,888.00 </td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl69" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <b>Total</b> </td>
<td align="right" class="xl63"> <b>$6,743.00 </b></td>
<td><br /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<!--EndFragment-->
</tbody></table>
<br /><div>
Heating is a heat pump with gas backup and baseboards downstairs. Gas for hot water and 2 fireplaces (rarely used). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So even without factoring the mortgage in, it costs about $560/month to keep the place operating. Adding in mortgage interest, that goes to $1450/month. Nothing big on maintenance, but the new gutters and some random Home Depot excursions probably added up to another $100/month.</div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com62tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-68902101507952093952014-09-29T08:23:00.000-07:002014-09-29T08:29:47.900-07:00Sept 29 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>Sept 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><b>Sept</b><br />
<b> 2013</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td><b>Wk 4</b></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">105</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
232</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">362</td><td style="text-align: center;">511</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
487</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">325</td><td style="text-align: center;">580</td><td style="text-align: center;">810</td><td style="text-align: center;">1034</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1106</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">4293</td><td style="text-align: center;">4310</td><td style="text-align: center;">4280</td><td style="text-align: center;">4261</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4547</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
32%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">40%</td><td style="text-align: center;">45%</td><td style="text-align: center;">49%</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
44%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">462</td><td style="text-align: center;">510</td><td style="text-align: center;">530</td><td style="text-align: center;">562</td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
9.3<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Hey it's an update. By the way thanks Dasmo for posting the article about the true cost of commuting a few weeks ago. That lead me to discover <a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/">Mr. Money Moustache</a> and I've been devouring that blog from start to finish ever since. Next project: early retirement / financial independence. <br />
Amazing how I didn't stumble across this blog before, given that I suspect there are quite a few commenters here that follow this philosophy. I'm particularly interested in how realistic the early retirement concept is in an expensive city like Victoria. Unlike Mr. Money Moustache, our house didn't cost $200,000, we're not retired before having kids (and thus childcare), and most everything is more money in Canada than in the US. However everyone can still use a good punch in the face as far as spending is concerned.<br />
<b>Bonus:</b> an entirely new set of spreadsheets to create, and there's nothing like a good spreadsheet to get the adrenaline going.</div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com203tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-18836054186584206582014-09-07T18:35:00.002-07:002014-09-07T18:52:35.076-07:00SeptemberSo... how 'bout this heat?<br />
<br />
An unexpected joy of homeownership came up this summer, twice even. That is scraping egg off stucco that some local teenagers tossed at the house. Or maybe it was info reminding me to put another damn post up before we hit 500 comments.<br />
<br />
Well not much has changed in September, but more and more the market seems to be stabilizing. Is it a plateau? Is it a rebound? Is there a dead cat involved? Although we hardly fell fast enough to bounce. Time to update the spreadsheet and see if any particular graph looks interesting enough to post.<br />
<br />
Here's one:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggx1O15bWdk3r7G6bqzYv2-9cV_jTd99k12hE-TBYQxRifKmgcARkxuR6tzMUPLZJ57RQAtWj8_SWxW_U_BhbreTlrfUSsHblUzEvxy2GH4tOkKTEvo243jLcfuilfrXGcJVOtS6309cJV/s1600/yearlymoi.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggx1O15bWdk3r7G6bqzYv2-9cV_jTd99k12hE-TBYQxRifKmgcARkxuR6tzMUPLZJ57RQAtWj8_SWxW_U_BhbreTlrfUSsHblUzEvxy2GH4tOkKTEvo243jLcfuilfrXGcJVOtS6309cJV/s1600/yearlymoi.png" height="435" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Since the market peak in 2010 we had steadily worsening conditions for three whole years. Every month the inventory grew and sales flagged. But since mid 2013 there has been a reversal that has been remarkably consistent. MOI has been dropping for over a year now while prices slowly creep up. Will this turn around without more government intervention? Or maybe the 112,000 lost private sector jobs in August will temper the trend all on its own.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com257tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-42120188959325195612014-07-23T19:50:00.000-07:002014-07-23T19:52:06.245-07:00Incomes versus prices: what say the numbers?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Statistics Canada <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140723/dq140723c-eng.htm">released a report</a> of household earnings based on 2012 reported income recently. Depending on your POV, you may or may not be surprised to learn Calgarians reported the highest earnings in the nation. Thought it may be fun to compare 2012 earnings with 2014 average home prices <a href="http://crea.ca/content/national-average-price-map">as reported by CREA</a> for a few towns in the Great White North.
<br />
<br />
<table style="width: 450px;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><b>City</b></td>
<td><b>Median income</b></td>
<td><b>Average price</b></td>
<td><b>Price/Income</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Calgary</td>
<td>$98,300</td>
<td>$466,994</td>
<td>4.75</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Edmonton</td>
<td>$96,030</td>
<td>$371,839</td>
<td>3.87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ottawa</td>
<td>$94,230</td>
<td>$365,366</td>
<td>3.87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. John's</td>
<td>$87,150</td>
<td>$349,649</td>
<td>4.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Victoria</td>
<td>$81,580</td>
<td>$496,225</td>
<td>6.08</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Canada</td>
<td>$74,540</td>
<td>$413,215</td>
<td>5.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vancouver</td>
<td>$71,140</td>
<td>$796,714</td>
<td>11.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Toronto</td>
<td>$71,210</td>
<td>$568,953</td>
<td>7.99</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
I was surprised by the incomes reported in Victoria. I would have thought they'd be closer to Vancouver. Perhaps not unexpected is the fact that the two most expensive towns to own a home are also below the national average for income. It's not completely clear what the inputs for "average home price" are in CREA's system, but I'd wager they're lumping and smoothing condos, semi-detached and detached. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Useful exercise? Thoughts? I'm sure some of the more number savvy folks around here can improve upon my Grade 3 level analysis in the comments. </div>
</div>
HouseHuntVictoriahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07456914359088891317noreply@blogger.com404tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-57478769309666946472014-07-03T18:58:00.000-07:002014-07-03T18:58:30.615-07:00July updateBusy times at work and home, so haven't had much time for the blog lately. Of course the small matter that we're no longer house hunting in Victoria plays a role. However the comments are great as always, so here's another post to keep the party going. <div>
<br /></div>
<div>
June numbers are out and I'm happy to see that a bit of the <a href="http://vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html">old VREB salesman</a> spark is back. It's a good time to buy and a good time to sell, so everyone should be happy, most of all the realtors. It was looking like a mass extinction event was underway for Victoria realtors, but this upswing could forestall that.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Year over year sales increases are starting to peter out, mostly because we're starting to compare to months where it was already picking up last year. Prices up a bit in the core, down a bit on the west shore.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Marko reports that many buyers are holding on to their rentals to get a better price. Just like they were last year, and the year before, and the year before that. Eventually, "I'll hold out another year" turns into "f*ck it let's sell".</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com103tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-49669676152637974922014-06-02T21:56:00.000-07:002014-06-02T22:05:04.620-07:00May results and a whine from the mortgage industryMay numbers are in, and they're about as expected. 714 sales which puts us on the low middle between a hot market (963 in May 2007) and a moribund one (572 in May 2011). Prices are well within the margin of noise, with SFH medians up a bit, and townhouses and condos flat.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_HjefTjGQ6FET7wIUzh3GFZ3kv_y-5zou2Ppqnm-oMCuwGM0OO1WbNFaU16D_jPP2FILWlQ-ETzVyFYL0Z2RsoY2gIJ3VrEqhvrok2lmy30wItUkfBjEmuiK-5-0kE467SfnnMKCd6kCa/s1600/dfpmay.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_HjefTjGQ6FET7wIUzh3GFZ3kv_y-5zou2Ppqnm-oMCuwGM0OO1WbNFaU16D_jPP2FILWlQ-ETzVyFYL0Z2RsoY2gIJ3VrEqhvrok2lmy30wItUkfBjEmuiK-5-0kE467SfnnMKCd6kCa/s1600/dfpmay.png" height="435" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9JzPF07MCHV4jPjwm1ABRqteaX866nj_krZnmlOFt01QZYHQXU48vlKkM131aeVwFFgPijaUvG9mi5dHCZngEVNz7aIkJPaCnF_RhRL6vEOWawcPcSndmHYts_RYDeW9sy8d9woPTc4sK/s1600/moimay.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9JzPF07MCHV4jPjwm1ABRqteaX866nj_krZnmlOFt01QZYHQXU48vlKkM131aeVwFFgPijaUvG9mi5dHCZngEVNz7aIkJPaCnF_RhRL6vEOWawcPcSndmHYts_RYDeW9sy8d9woPTc4sK/s1600/moimay.png" height="436" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiS56V9CzlXZknQRo6zLp0y1i0qRvT7YeND4Cfji7_NYJH-f88or_ZgrGblo7gb0CuGUSOPPXUh8EjXmt9laX4WAHMC-BQ4DT4aLotStIuRW-xq97F0frxat0_IrIXeoRJNpu8WG4x_Igv/s1600/yearlymay.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiS56V9CzlXZknQRo6zLp0y1i0qRvT7YeND4Cfji7_NYJH-f88or_ZgrGblo7gb0CuGUSOPPXUh8EjXmt9laX4WAHMC-BQ4DT4aLotStIuRW-xq97F0frxat0_IrIXeoRJNpu8WG4x_Igv/s1600/yearlymay.png" height="436" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Just Jack has it right when he says that the market is very fragmented. There are both reasonably good deals in certain segments, while others have barely declined at all. The best options price-wise seem to be those houses that have one or two little defects, or a few year old condos. Unless that condo is cash flow positive, it's likely a losing proposition in the foreseeable future.<br />
<br />
While Victoria's market is spectacularly unexciting, the rest of the country seems to be doing ok, with just a few cracks showing in such unimportant places like Halifax and Quebec.. and Ottawa... and Montreal. Not to worry. However just in case there is something to worry about - like more government regulation - the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals are either hosting their annual get together for hay fever suffers (CAAMP ACCHA!), or have released their <a href="http://www.caamp.org/meloncms/media/Spring%20Report%20FINAL%202014-05-24.pdf">spring quarterly report</a>. In there they conclude that the 2012 mortgage changes were inappropriate, in that they apparently didn't do much to slow price appreciation in Canada. <br />
<br />
Otherwise there isn't much of interest, mostly because the survey isn't worth a lot. When they claim that average Canadian homeowner equity has increased by 6 percentage points in 6 months, you can pretty much judge the validity of the rest of the numbers. <br />
<br />
One interesting tidbit: Adding up the increased payments and lump sum payments, we get 12 billion in additional mortgage pay down in 2013. Pretty impressive right? Except at the same time home owners extracted $52.7 billion in equity out of their homes. Well I'm sure the economy won't miss that $40 billion in spending when that well dries up.Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com188tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-35944428697499184572014-05-20T21:19:00.002-07:002014-05-20T21:19:14.611-07:00May 20 Market Update<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>May 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><b>May</b><br />
<b> 2013</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">229</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
406</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
659</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">572</td><td style="text-align: center;">909</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1428</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">4512</td><td style="text-align: center;">4578</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4783</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
40%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;">45%</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
46%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">719</td><td style="text-align: center;">687*</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
7.3<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
*Counting the stat as a weekday. </div>
Leo Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02951281972056927807noreply@blogger.com238tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7123542260692860177.post-14397030992747927362014-05-12T20:32:00.002-07:002014-05-12T20:33:02.315-07:00It's looking awful fishy out there<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via </span><a href="http://www.markojuras.com/" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Marko Juras</a><span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody>
<tr><td rowspan="2"><br /></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><b>May 2014</b></td><td rowspan="2" valign="top"><b>May</b><br />
<b> 2013</b></td></tr>
<tr><td>Wk 1</td><td>Wk 2</td><td>Wk 3</td><td>Wk 4</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Unconditional Sales</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">229</td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
659</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>New Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">572</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
1428</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Active Listings</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">4512</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
4783</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales to New Listings</b></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
40%</div>
</td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
46%</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Sales Projection</b></td><td style="text-align: center;">719</td><td style="text-align: center;"></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Months of Inventory</b></td><td align="center" colspan="4"><br /></td><td><div style="text-align: center;">
7.3<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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More listings piling on and lower sales/list than last year. Seems the market is equalizing again or as Marko says "a whole lot of boring".<br />
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End of month numbers are no different. The more data we get, the more it seems the decline went from 2010 to 2012, with flat afterwards. It took a big shift in sales mix to keep median prices flat during the inventory spike after the 2012 CMHC changes, but stay flat they did. I wonder what the sales mix is like these days?<br />
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