Putting credibility on the line

You have to admire the attempts, really. It takes a lot of guts in a time when a growing majority of people hold a contrarian viewpoint, to put not only your personal but your professional credibility on the line. I know, when I started this blog I was confronted with the age-old bear blogger dilemma, anonymity or permanently risk personal and professional reputation?

Because I make absolutely nothing from this blog, and at the time I started it I was finishing school, seeking work in the google-age and the generally accepted belief was real estate can only go up you're crazy for thinking differently, I chose anonymity (since I have done CBC radio using my real name while referencing this blog and I'm almost positive that Tony Joe knows who I am).

Last week, we had this advertisement in the disguise of an op-ed, newspeak for opinion based editorial. It was a good attempt, and while it may give Dallas Chapple better name recognition, her factless opinions serve, in the opinion of not only HHV, but the vast majority of the commenters on the TC piece, to undermine her professional credibility. I suspect, in the longterm, this will prove not to be good for business.

This week (H/T to anonymous commentor in previous post) we have this advertisement, which despite it's professional communications release look and feel, states advertisement right on it. Perhaps the TC learned something from its experience with the comments last week and decided Tony would have to pay for his advertorial this week.

Throughout my life, I've tried to maintain composure in trying times. These are trying times. BC home sales are plummeting. Canada-wide, the real estate market is slumping faster than anytime in the past 26 years (as far back as 1982, one of the biggest housing crashes in Canadian history). I understand how hard it is for the local real estate industry players to maintain composure.

They have been drinking from the kool aid fountain so long, they actually believe the MSM is giving them an unfair shake right now. They believe this so much, they are now paying to correct the "misperceptions" the TC is "creating."

I have no doubt that Tony Joe and Dallas Chapple are ranked high amongst their peers for their ability to sell high priced homes, or volume, or both. But one's ability to sell a product does not make one a product market expert. And we are seeing evidence in their statements:

"Victoria continues to be a destination of choice with a diversified and strong economy... Given that our population is growing by thousands of people each year at a time when we have the lowest vacancy rate..."

Tony, you are right. What you fail to tell people is that these are not new factors, and had little to do with upwards price pressure to begin with. Throughout the last two decades, Victoria has had consistent population growth of just under 1% per year. This hasn't changed. The last census showed no increased rate of growth over the previous census.

The vacancy rate is a misleading statistic as it does not account for all of the new rental properties created in this past building boom as there have been few new institutional rentals added, however, I can tell you there has been an epidemic of secondary suite construction and substantial speculative buying, which led to new rental products not counted by CMHC.

Tony, you tell us that median prices haven't changed, even when you average out the the yearly growth, which is a marked difference from how you've reported VREB statistics for as long as I've been watching them. You've moved the yardsticks to hide a 8-10% downward change in median prices. Even if I accept your numbers, which are misleading, you can't hide the 3-4% decline in prices caused by inflation. If you bought a property in 2007 and find yourself in a must sell position in 2008, you will lose almost 10% of the money you tied up in the property when you account for REALTORS' fees, taxes and inflation.

Tony, your 1998 year claim of a "strong and stable market" is bunk. 1998 was not a strong and stable market, in fact, according to CBC, that period was a "crashing market," a time when construction workers were being laid off and developers weren't developing.

Tony, you talk about a ballon, it sounds like you could use a communications professional to let you know that using any kind of bubblicious word in a rapidly deflating market, completely, pardon the pun, deflates every word you wastefully paid for in your advertisement disguised as "market outlook" or whatever your group is calling it these days.

I'd love to hear REALTORS out there start speaking out (Al, you have not gone un-noticed here). In fact, if we get a Paul B type here in Victoria who starts building business from a different tune, I bet you'll have great success with the fence sitters when they start hopping back into the game in the years ahead, because it is about credibility.

Every day, more and more people are questioning the credibility of the VREB and it's spokespeople. Someone, please, jump into the credibility gap, be patient and secure a future for yourself and your family, and for the good of those of us who just want to buy a home without losing ours.

Credibility: by way of the Cappy Cap