April 29 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	April 2013				April 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Uncond. Sales	116	258	410	556	586
New Listings	345	662	983	1287	1470
Active Listings	4323	4417	4488	4555	4638
Sales to New Listings	34%	39%	42%	43%	40%
Sales Projection	510	567	601	611
Months of Inventory					7.9

Looks like sales will edge out April 2012, and possibly come in a bit lower on inventory as well (barring any end of month jumps, although I haven't noticed those recently).  SFH average at $631,000 while the median sits at $540,000.

In other news, 4 out of 10 mortgage holders say that adding $20/month to their mortgage payment would impact their finances (whatever that means).

How can we make the most expensive areas of the country even more expensive more affordable?  Just lend more in the core!

Realtor.ca Beta

The CREA is beta-testing their new website. You can find it here: http://beta.realtor.ca/index.aspx?CultureId=1

I've been playing with it on my iPad and laptop for about 24 hours. Its map-based interface is better than the previous version. Pictures display better too. It's great that it's easy to toggle between map, gallery and list views. Map and gallery are OK, list seems like a very time consuming way to find a house.

Anyone else playing with it? Share your thoughts in comments. 

Apr 22 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	April 2013				April 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Uncond. Sales	116	258	410		586
New Listings	345	662	983		1470
Active Listings	4323	4417	4488		4638
Sales to New Listings	34%	39%	42%		40%
Sales Projection	510	567	601
Months of Inventory					7.9

Relatively strong sales as we've seen, but not overly so.  At the same time last year we had 417 sales, so we're certainly not breaking any records.  Perhaps it will end up at par with last year +- some small percent. Marko reports the SFH average at $644k, while the median is at $544k.

Gangbusters

It's not only the comments that are piling up, it's also the sales these days.  I've got 27 SFH sales under $550k and 35 from $550 to $900k, which is the most I've seen since I've started tracking 2-3 years ago.

No sooner do I write an update about the low sales do they turn around.  Will be interesting to see the final numbers for April.  Last year around the third monday we had 417 sales.

Edit: Sales would have to be accelerate significantly and be sustained for several months to catch up to last year though.   So far we're 268 sales behind 2012.

April 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	April 2013				April 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Uncond. Sales	116	258			586
New Listings	345	662			1470
Active Listings	4323	4417			4638
Sales to New Listings	34%	39%			40%
Sales Projection	510	567
Months of Inventory					7.9

Relatively strong week for sales.  This is the first sign of life in the spring market, we are now pretty much bang on the sales pace of last year (265 at this point in the month).  As the year progresses we will see fewer big YoY declines in sales because we are hitting months that were already starting to slow last year.
When the mortgage restrictions were introduced last July, some lenders predicted that they would take 8-9 months to work through the market, so some of the increase in sales might be due to some of the effects of the mortgage restrictions wearing off.   Too early to tell.

Weekend update

Wow, north of 250 comments..    Time for an update to hold us until Monday.  Quite amazing how few sales there are right now.   There were slightly fewer back in the late 90s, but keep in mind the Victoria CMA had 15% fewer people back then.

April 8 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	April 2013				April 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Uncond. Sales	116				586
New Listings	345				1470
Active Listings	4323				4638
Sales to New Listings	34%				40%
Sales Projection	510
Months of Inventory					7.9

Last year we had 145 sales in the first 5 business days of the month so we're continuing to lag both in sales and sales/list.   Of course the Easter pseudo-stat confuses the week a bit, so don't put too much stock in that number.

My future sales predictor for April says to expect 502 sales.

On the topic of the Economist's idea that prices in Canada are 78% overvalued relative to rents, I've never thought this was a particularly solid indicator, and I don't understand why it is continually cited.  Here's a few problems with it that I can see.

1. I've never been able to find a detailed description of their methodology.  What are their data sources, what are their parameters, what do they mean by "long run average"?    Everyone only brings up this graphic which is short on details.
2. The metric for determining over/undervaluation is current ratios compared to "long run averages".  Nevermind that that term isn't defined, it also ignores the different state of development of different countries.  The Switzerland of 50 years ago is a lot more similar to the Switzerland of today than the Canada of 50 years ago is to todays.  This might be a moot point though, since they cite Teranet, which is certainly no basis for any "long run" average.  It would make a lot more sense to me to compare prices against a standard multiple of rent.
3. Doesn't pass the smell test.  As dasmo said, 78% overvalued just doesn't compute in the real world.  

March Decline-o-meter

Update on the decline from peak.

Also a new measure I'm playing with..  The number of properties that have gone off market in a given month compared to the inventory at the time.

It seems to me that fewer properties are going off market every year.  In a strong market that might indicate that the places are selling, but since we know they aren't, my theory is that people are losing confidence that the market will recover.  Instead of pulling their properties and waiting for next year, people are hanging on and dropping their prices.

Also low sales and low off market rate == lots of stale listings out there.

Spring Perks Up Victoria Market

To celebrate the continued existence of the blog, here a VREB-like upbeat take on our March numbers.

Marko provides us the early update.

March 2013
Net Unconditional Sales: 483
New Listings: 1,231
Active Listings: 4,333

Clearly the sunny weather has brought out the buyers last month, with sales exploding by an amazing 22% over February. My friend a realtor says "We're definitely seeing some more traffic at open houses". Meanwhile with interest rates remaining low, it's never been a better time to buy in Victoria. Months of inventory at 9 reflects a balanced market in Victoria.

Update: 
The VREB release is out.

"The market continues to unfold as predicted," says Shelley Mann, President of the Board.

Hmm...  What was that prediction again?  Oh yeah:  "sales volume will increase 4% this year over 2012, but prices will remain flat."

"With sales below the historical norm, there is potential pent-up consumer demand developing in the market. We expect quarterly activity to increase over the next two quarters"

Potential yes.  But what's stopping those buyers?  If they want to buy there is lots of selection, so I don't see why they don't go out and buy.  It seems rather more likely that slow sales will create pent up supply, with people that maybe would have liked to sell last year or the year before for top dollar getting a little more serious.

"The first six months of 2012 were reasonably strong, and then mortgage amortization rules changed in July"

This is a bit of revisionist history.  The first 6 months of 2012 were pretty weak, and then the year got weaker after July.

"With different lending rules in effect, it is challenging to compare the first six months of 2013 with 2012," she adds.
The median price of a single-family home is $510,777 compared to $555,000 in March 2012, a decrease of 8%. The six-month average shows a decrease of less than one percent month-over-month. Annual differences are skewed by four single-family home sales over $2 million in March 2012. 

 Challenging, but together we can do it!  Those darn outliers, always shifting the median price, which as we know is especially susceptible to just that...

Sold

Sometimes life presents offers you just can’t refuse. So it’s with mixed emotions that I write HHV’s obituary today. All good things must come to an end. The fat lady does sing; it’s true.

With the real estate market in BC moving slower than molasses uphill and outside in winter, vested interests are working behind the scenes to protect their potential future real estate lottery wins.

A while back I got an email promising cash if I responded. You’ve had a few of them show up in your spam box I’m sure. Typically these emails come from Nigeria. Mine came from Victoria, so it’s legit.

It offered boatloads of cash. And it told me the cash was coming electronically via Western Union.

The only hook was this blog had to cease to exist. No archives. No new posts. No platform for real estate vendors in Victoria, Australia. Nothing. Zip. Zilch. Nada. HHV has to be no more.

Being an individual of curiosity, I read to the bottom of the email to see what I was being offered to shut the blog down.

Astronomical! Hailey’s Comet sized cash. Almost enough to buy an Oak Bay blue hair’s 1987 Toyota Corolla with 24,239 kilometers on it from her middle-aged son (still living at home but itching to get his own Oak Bay basement suite, eventually).

I took it. Money’s due in my account by 11:59 PM tonight. The blog will shut down at exactly midnight tomorrow as a result.

If this makes you angry, I understand. This blog has never been about its creator, it’s always been about the authors and commentators and their ongoing contributions. You’re right to feel like someone made off like a bandit on the backs of your collective efforts. I feel an enormous weight of guilt myself, but the visual of my three hairs blowing in the sunroof wind while cruising in my new-to-me Corolla is easing my pain.I trust MS Excel will help you with yours.

Besides, the real culprit in this caper is the organization behind the largesse, I’m just the messenger. Please direct your anger, or maybe your donations, at the Victoria Residential Real Estate Aspiring Flippers Association.