And so it goes

The HouseHuntVictoria blog has moved to http://househuntvictoria.ca.

Well after a brief burst this spring with more regular updates, it looks like we're back to irregular and late updates.    This has forced the issue for me somewhat of whether I realistically will maintain this blog going forward.   There are a number of changes I'd like to make to the blog as a whole, but unfortunately without ownership of it I can only post articles.  In the spring I tried to contact HouseHuntVictoria several times about transferring ownership, but he is either not monitoring the email anymore or has moved on permanently.

So as Adam Carolla says, in the end you have to ask a question about any activity you're doing:

"Does it make you money or does it make you happy?"
(and if the answer is no, move the f**k on)  

This blog has never made me any money, but it has certainly been a rewarding experience in other ways over the years.   It helped me tremendously with understanding the factors influencing the direction of the market, and has given me the information I needed to make a decision on whether to buy and when.   However I feel I've reached a point where I've analyzed the market every which way I can think of with the public data that is available.  All that would be left to do going forward is parrot Marko's and VREB's updates, while many new happiness or money generating activities compete for my time.   So with that I'm unfortunately going to bow out formally from posting further articles.   While I will miss the discussion here, I'm hoping that some of it will continue in other forums such as VibrantVictoria, where I will likely occasionally post updates on market trends as the fancy strikes.

I would like to thank the many commenters on this blog that have contributed information or stimulating debate.  I would have quit years ago if it wasn't for the discussion here.  Thanks especially to Marko for the inside track information and regular updates, Just Jack for the detailed analyses of submarkets and humour, our chief halibut and investment god dasmo, the always sensible DavidL, Koozdra for providing me all the regional data, as well as caveat emptor, patriotz, CS, totoro, Double Agent, Roger, and many many others.    Most of all thanks to HHV for letting me post all this time.  I've learned a huge amount from you all.

Here's a graph for the road.

Cheers,
Leo

April 21 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	April 2015				April  2014
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	102	264	479		664
New Listings	223	561	879		1521
Active Listings	3758	3870	3894		4404
Sales to New Listings	46%	47%	54%		44%
Sales Projection	--	726	810
Months of Inventory					6.6

Real lack of new listings coming on out there.   Last year at this point we had somewhat fewer sales (436) but quite a few more listings (1073).    A year ago sales flagged a bit and I thought maybe it was the beginning of the end of the trend of YoY improvements, but here we are a year later with no sign of it stopping yet.

Happy April

Well maybe 734 people last month earn $100k in Victoria.   Or maybe it's a big debt orgy. 

Well it just got a little harder with CMHC raising rates by 15% (about $2700 extra for the average Victoria home), which we can expect to continue as the government fights to keep the housing market from boiling over.   Doubling the TFSA contribution limit plays into this as well by encouraging people to invest in things other than real estate.   Of course the tax on zero is still zero.  

A good month for the home market in Victoria though.  At 5 months of inventory we're solidly in balanced market overall, but as we know from Just Jack's finer analysis, this is only the average of a pretty hot core and a languishing westshore.   

That trend of improving market shows no sign of stopping yet.

Sales up 22% YtD over last year.  Even though I guessed the highest it looks like I was far too pessimistic in my yearly sales forecast.  

March 23 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	March 2015				March  2014
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	132	307	491		575
New Listings	396	707	1040		1286
Active Listings	3562	3633	3693		4050
Sales to New Listings	33%	43%	47%		45%
Sales Projection	--	675	720
Months of Inventory					7.0

Last time we had over 700 sales in march was 5 years ago at 789.  Before that it was 2007 (833 sales).   So not a hot market yet (that would be between 800 and 900 sales with an inventory of half of what we have now) but decent.  Enough to draw the bulls out of the woodwork at least.

March 16 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	March 2015				March  2014
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	132	307			575
New Listings	396	707			1286
Active Listings	3562	3633			4050
Sales to New Listings	33%	43%			45%
Sales Projection	--	675
Months of Inventory					7.0

More listings than last year, but even more sales.  Last year this week we had only a 39% sales/list ratio.   

March 9th Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	March 2015				March  2014
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	132				575
New Listings	396				1286
Active Listings	3562				4050
Sales to New Listings	33%				45%
Sales Projection	--
Months of Inventory					7.0

This week last year we also had exactly 132 sales.   There are 10% more new listings coming online this year though so the months of declining inventory might be limited.  

February 2015 Monthly Stats

Pretty strong February.  Sales up 31%, inventory down 8%.   The trend towards improving market continues at a surprisingly steady clip, with prices matching inflation for the last year and a half.   

SFH prices basically dead flat from last year.   If we see another strong month though this graph will jump.

Another way to visualize the change in the market since 2013 is to look at the change in inventory from the same month the year before.

Only sign of anything different is an increase in new listings over last year.  Haven't seen that since last May.  With more chatter of a better market, it might lure some potential sellers out of the woodwork this spring.

Feb 23 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Feb 2015				Feb  2014
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	118	226	396		412
New Listings	352	587	877		1064
Active Listings	3324	3401	3448		3770
Sales to New Listings	34%	39%	45%		39%
Sales Projection	--	452	528
Months of Inventory					9.1

Strong week so expect over 500 sales for the month.  If this week matches last we could hit almost 570 sales which would be the highest since 2010.  

Feb 16 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Feb 2015				Feb  2014
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	118	226			412
New Listings	352	587			1064
Active Listings	3324	3401			3770
Sales to New Listings	34%	39%			39%
Sales Projection	--	452
Months of Inventory					9.1

Relatively strong first two weeks with sales pace about 10% higher than last year.   Those interest rates might be luring a few buyers out of the woodwork.  

Jan 26 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Jan 2015				Jan  2014
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	83	165	265		342
New Listings	286	541	786		1090
Active Listings	3020	3121	3198		3489
Sales to New Listings	29%	30%	34%		31%
Sales Projection	--	302	342
Months of Inventory					10.2

Should be somewhat above last year's total given accelerating sales pace, but likely not a lot.  About 360-370 I'm guessing.

2015 Predictions

"I'll bet rates stay at 1% for another year." - me two weeks ago.
Well I'm not getting any more accurate, but at least I'm wrong more quickly.

Time to lay it out for 2015.   We're in the middle of some pretty momentous changes with oil (and oil related investments) dropping through the floor.  Now the Bank of Canada has surprised everyone with a rate cut.  Will the rate cut stimulate the local housing market with lower mortgage rates?  Or is it a sign of a slower economy that will drag on the market?

How are those numbers doing anyway?

Current prices and HPI.  Median down a bit in recent months.

Months of inventory

Annual rolling averages.  Months of inventory still going down at a good clip.  Prince increases flattening out lately.

Sales to new listings.  Still trending positive.

Relative to peak prices.

Affordability bigger picture stuff.  Income gains and interest rates drops causing affordability to steadily increase.

The 5 year lending rate recently cracked an all time low at 3.98%.    Looks like the journey down isn't quite done yet.

This year I'm guess we will see the Bank of Canada battle outright deflation.  If oil stays low for a while longer things won't look so pretty, and it might cost the conservatives the government in the fall.

In Victoria, I'm guessing a small improvement over last year's numbers but more or less more of the same, with the month over month increases petering out by springtime.   Prices will remain the same pulled down a bit by more first timers entering the market.
Total sales:  7200
2015 Average SFH price: $610,000
BoC Interest rate:  0.75%
Teranet June 2015:  138
Teranet Dec 2015: 140

New years prediction roundup

End of the year and the annual numbers are in.   How did we do in last year's predictions?

	Leo	Koozdra	Marko	Caveat Emptor	Patriotz	Reasonfirst	ACTUAL
Sales	6200	5300	6400	6000	---	6100	6699
SFH 6 month average	$580,000	$550,000	$585,000	$565,000	---	---	$609,342*
BoC Interest Rate	1%	0.5%	1%	0.75%	---	1.25%	1%
Teranet June 2014	128	130	132	131	129	128	136.2
Teranet Dec 2014	124	126	131	128	124	125	TBD (Nov: 138.2)

* The 6 month average SFH price does not appear to be published anymore. This is the annual average.

Overall we all sucked.   Marko wins for being closest on every measure; that's why he gets paid the big bucks.

 Other predictions:
"House prices across the Canadian housing market may peak in 2014. Victoria's big price declines will likely begin after the Canadian housing market peaks and it is evident that house prices across Canada have begun to correct." - Info

"further controls will be added to the mortgage market but I think at least one of them will be head line grabbing. I'm going to go with regional caps re-established on CMHC insurance." - Koozdra  (some minor tweaks happened)

"I think we will see a drop in prices of approximately 5% by December (in Oak Bay)" - totoro

"In short, 2014 to early 2015 will see a sharp transition. This will result in either a significant increase in MOI or significantly lower prices; probably a combination of both." - LeoM

"MLS HPI (2014): - 4%" - Info (Actual: Up 2.1%)

"Any generalized market prediction would be meaningless in this market." - Just Jack

Assessments are also in and overall seem to be pretty flat except for in the periphery.

In important economic news, oil prices below $50 a barrel.  How long can the oil sands withstand operating at a loss before those camp jobs start evaporating?

Dec 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Updated Dec 22

	Dec 2014				Dec  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	112	198	306		355
New Listings	148	271	348		437
Active Listings	3455	3406	3301		3554
Sales to New Listings	76%	73%	88%		81%
Sales Projection	--	455	469
Months of Inventory					10

We won't be hitting the estimate as sales will drop off significantly at the tail end of the month.    Likely closer to 400.    Some signs of a slowdown with the Teranet composite down 0.3% in November with many cities showing a decline, including yours truly.  CMHC also continues to tinker, hiking fees to insure mortgage backed securities by up to 200%.

Update:  A while back there was some chatter about the appreciation rates of condos and single family homes.   I would think that since "they ain't making any more land", the appreciation rate for condos would lag that of SFHs.   So I took a simplistic look at the appreciation rates for both over all 5 year periods over the last 25 odd years and here's the result.

The rates are closer than I thought, but there definitely is a difference between the two.   Average 5 year appreciation is 38% for SFHs, and 32% for condos (or ~1% a year).   I would suspect that a re-sale based index would show a somewhat wider difference.
The condo market is also a bit more volatile, with a range from a 20% drop over 5 years to a 128% increase, while SFHs have ranged from a drop of only 7% to an increase of 109%.

Nov 25 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Nov 2014				Nov  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	137	234	357		412
New Listings	195	366	516		698
Active Listings	3722	3685	3639		4017
Sales to New Listings	70%	64%	69%		59%
Sales Projection	--	468	476
Months of Inventory					9.8

Nov 10 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Nov 2014				Nov  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	137				412
New Listings	195				698
Active Listings	3722				4017
Sales to New Listings	70%				59%
Sales Projection	--
Months of Inventory					9.8

Pretty comparable sales to this week last year but with somewhat lower inventory and fewer new listings coming online.

Oct 20 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Oct 2014				Oct  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	83	230	356		512
New Listings	178	393	556		979
Active Listings	4100	4060	3988		4322
Sales to New Listings	47%	59%	64%		52%
Sales Projection	--	661	630
Months of Inventory					8.4

There has been some discussion about this piece of "analysis" by a mortgage broker.  His theory is that when interest rates go up, so do prices.  Apparently in the last 30 years, increasing mortgage rates lead to increasing prices 62% of the time 2 months later.  Never mind that the two month lag is never justified (as Just Jack said, a 3 month rate hold would blow that out of the water).  The obvious gaping hole in this theory is that prices have been increasing for most of that 30 year period, so it's not at all surprising that 62% of the months they went up.  If someone were to care to evaluate the entire period they would probably find more than 62% of months that showed increasing prices.

Oct 14 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Oct 2014				Oct  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	83	230			512
New Listings	178	393			979
Active Listings	4100	4060			4322
Sales to New Listings	47%	59%			52%
Sales Projection	--	661
Months of Inventory					8.4

Per Marko's request.  We're still (almost) the weakest market in the country for the past 7 years.  Edged out Edmonton in the last couple months but I suspect when September numbers are out we will be in last place.

What it cost to run our house.

In case anyone is wondering what it costs to run a pretty typical house, here is ours for last year:

Gordon head, 1970s build, ~2100sqft.   2 adults 1 child upstairs, 1 adult in suite downstairs.

Month	Hydro	Gas	Water/Sewer /Garbage	Property Tax	Insurance
January	$172.67	$86.25	$200.91
February	$164.64	$104.95
March	$164.64	$78.70
April	$96.83	$78.29
May	$96.83	$65.17
June	$57.49	$59.59	$222.13
July	$57.49	$45.90		$2,897.88	$957.00
August	$57.69	$79.23
September	$57.69	$70.33
October	$110.68	$50.91	$263.32
November	$110.68	$75.68
December	$172.67	$86.47
Total Utilities	$2,888.00
Total	$6,743.00

Heating is a heat pump with gas backup and baseboards downstairs.  Gas for hot water and 2 fireplaces (rarely used).   

So even without factoring the mortgage in, it costs about $560/month to keep the place operating.   Adding in mortgage interest, that goes to $1450/month.    Nothing big on maintenance, but the new gutters and some random Home Depot excursions probably added up to another $100/month.

Sept 29 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Sept 2014				Sept  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	105	232	362	511	487
New Listings	325	580	810	1034	1106
Active Listings	4293	4310	4280	4261	4547
Sales to New Listings	32%	40%	45%	49%	44%
Sales Projection	462	510	530	562
Months of Inventory					9.3

Hey it's an update.  By the way thanks Dasmo for posting the article about the true cost of commuting a few weeks ago.  That lead me to discover Mr. Money Moustache and I've been devouring that blog from start to finish ever since.   Next project: early retirement / financial independence.
Amazing how I didn't stumble across this blog before, given that I suspect there are quite a few commenters here that follow this philosophy.  I'm particularly interested in how realistic the early retirement concept is in an expensive city like Victoria.  Unlike Mr. Money Moustache, our house didn't cost $200,000, we're not retired before having kids (and thus childcare), and most everything is more money in Canada than in the US.  However everyone can still use a good punch in the face as far as spending is concerned.
Bonus:  an entirely new set of spreadsheets to create, and there's nothing like a good spreadsheet to get the adrenaline going.

September

So...   how 'bout this heat?

An unexpected joy of homeownership came up this summer, twice even.  That is scraping egg off stucco that some local teenagers tossed at the house.   Or maybe it was info reminding me to put another damn post up before we hit 500 comments.

Well not much has changed in September, but more and more the market seems to be stabilizing.   Is it a plateau?  Is it a rebound?  Is there a dead cat involved?  Although we hardly fell fast enough to bounce.  Time to update the spreadsheet and see if any particular graph looks interesting enough to post.

Here's one:

Since the market peak in 2010 we had steadily worsening conditions for three whole years.  Every month the inventory grew and sales flagged.  But since mid 2013 there has been a reversal that has been remarkably consistent.   MOI has been dropping for over a year now while prices slowly creep up.   Will this turn around without more government intervention?   Or maybe the 112,000 lost private sector jobs in August will temper the trend all on its own.