Some quick observations and Guest Post #1

I was in D.C. on Friday. I was impressed with how clean it was. Granted I was in the business district but wow, brick sidewalks, not a cigarette butt nor needle to be seen, and the architecture... certainly doesn't make Victoria appear "world class." I came home from Van yesterday on the seaplane. Flew right over downtown. Anyone who thinks we don't have more land for development should fly over town. There is much more land here than I realized.

Care_bear sent in the content below for a guest post. It's a different take than we've seen here for a while. I'm inclined to think a good discussion may arise.

Selling in a bear market

It drives me nuts to see the number of home sale listings increase daily in yet people still think that they can sell their house/condo/whatever with minimal effort and for ridiculously inflated prices. The market is different today than 2 years ago people.

I drove by a newly advertised 'for sale by owner' duplex the other day and the sign looked like it was made by the owners 10 year old kid. It was complete with flashing bike light on top. How a flashing bike light is supposed to convince someone to drop $400k on a duplex is beyond me.

If you want to sell your property in today's market then you will have to do more than your neighbours who are selling the exact same place. Here are some hints:

1) Get a real estate agent. Get a good agent. Reality is that you need to be playing with a full deck of cards in order to complete such a huge transaction. Even selling a bachelor condo is a huge transaction these days. Believe me that I'd love to say that you can save the huge amount of real estate commission by doing it yourself...you can't. Maybe you could 2 or 4 years ago.

2) Watch your agent like a hawk. Make sure the ad is perfect. Make sure you bug them for updates regularly. Make sure you get feedback from everyone that was through your property. Most real estate agents do a good job but they have many clients besides you and any sale will be the result of the partnership and not soley your agent.

3) Price accordingly. Your price must be exactly right for the market. You will not sell if you're overpriced. Likewise, make sure you don't get bamboozled into selling for less than market value. It's up to you to determine the value of your property and not your agent (they will have an important opinion). It's your money.

4) Make sure your property is the best one available in the area for the price. Paint some walls, cut the grass, reno a bathroom, etc. Your property must be better than your neighbours as the amount of buyers looking for your place is not as high as in years past. If there's a serious buyer in your area then you want them to buy yours as you can't afford to wait for the next buyer (if there is one).

5) You need maximum exposure. List on MLS, usedvictoria, craiglist, wherever you can think about. Tell people at work, post signs, use the newspapers. Have open houses every weekend. You need to find your buyer as it's much less likely that a buyer will find you.

If you really need to sell your place now then you must take the initiative. Fortunately, things are still selling but the amount of listings is increasing rapidly and the window for you to sell (and not lose a lot of money) is only narrowly open.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a real estate agent nor am I involved in the real estate industry in any fashion.

Casting Call and an admission

Ms. HHV just got a job in Vancouver. It's a huge step for her in the financial world. I couldn't be more happy for her and us.

I am traveling from late March to early June. It will be for work but hardly paid. More on that later.

I'd like this blog to keep going for selfish reasons and cause I think it serves a much needed purpose in Victoria.

I can let it be dormant.

I can leave an open thread for three months.

Or you can be a guest blogger.

It's up to you.

The deadline to contact me is 3 weeks from now. If no one takes the challenge, then I'll leave an open thread which I give 3 weeks before it gets A) too long or B) too boring and this blog dies a slow and painful death...

Anyone is welcome to contact me via the email link. My only request is you maintain some semblance of balance compared to the MSM.

Budgets, economies and houses

I've neglected commentary on political budgets a purpose. There were two in two weeks and while neither had anything directly to do with houses, both had to do with fiscal houses and order.

I'm a fiscal conservative. I like governments who tax less and spend less. But that said, I think we owe each other basic human-rights-based services, so call me a liberal. Just don't call me a socialist/communist. Actually, lets leave politics alone, people just get offended.

So the BC provincial gov't announced a gas tax that has everything to do with grabbing your cash (and adding to inflation) and nothing to do with saving the Earth (despite what Dr. Suzuki says). And then the feds have a "prudent" low tax, low spend budget today. Make no mistake about it, both budgets are about stimulating consumer spending.

What we have seen this last week or two is worried gov'ts and fiscal stimulus. The economy is headed south, people have too much debt and your governments are acutely aware of it. Too bad they aren't acutely aware of the inherent problem of stagflation.

And for the record, PrairieBoy, don't go the way of VHB, stay the course my cyber-friend and hold out from the dark side. DON"T BUY A HOUSE.

Letters

First the good:

News item: U.S. housing market has worst decline in two decades.

News item: Can't happen in Canada; fundamentals are different.

News item: Calgary unsold houses jump by 7,000

News item: Edmonton and Vancouver: It can't happen here; fundamentals are different.

News item: Edmonton housing prices drop as much as 30 per cent.

News item: Can't happen in Vancouver; fundamentals are different.

Hmmmmmmmmm.

Tom Parkinson

Coquitlam

And then the bad. I can't find the link anymore, but it was pointed to in previous comments. A letter to the editor yesterday in the TC alluded to the idea that anyone who can't afford to buy in Victoria should move to somewhere they can buy, save some money and then come home.

The logical fallibleness that exists in such a lame-brained argument is unbelievable. Victoria has had a long-standing well deserved (in my opinion anyway) reputation of a city for newly-weds and nearly deads. My one simple question is who is going to make the latte, or keep track of doctor's billing, or clean homes, or work for the government, or cook meals in restaurants, or build condos for these people who seem to suggest that moving out is the best way to stop the problem of affordability.

Actually, maybe people leaving, and not coming here is the answer. Your answers in comments.

The Olympic$ effect

Lots of stories in the media lately about 2 years from yesterday being the opening day of the never ending real estate party that is a bunch of athletes contesting to determine who is the best amateur at your winter sport unless you play hockey in which case you get paid and the IOC doesn't care... anyway, you get my drift.

Before I go on, for the record, I like the Olympic$, I'm glad Vancouver won the bid, hindsight being 20/20 I still wouldn't change my mind. Yes, I see the health care before Olympic$ campaign material, but I'm an athlete, and I've also used way more than my fair share of publicly funded health care in my short 30 odd years and I'll likely use more than my fair share in the future. So I get it, I do. But I still think that people get inspired by athletic performances to get off their butts and participate in sports, thus, hopefully, leading to less chronic illnesses that are preventable by exercise. So disclaimer made, I like the Olympic$, glad they'll be in Vancouver.

So think about it. What if all those millions of people who will come to see the games and the half of those millions who are expected to buy a property or four when they are here, get disappointed by the fact that it doesn't snow in Vancouver often, it actually rains, almost the whole two weeks the games are on, and it's so warm up high on Whistler and Cypress, that the moguls and ski jumps start melting thus making the games rather dull and so they don't buy a house or four? Not even a condo? Why does this whole argument hold the traction that it does? Would an Australian trade sunny skies for winter grey? Will a Norwegianer trade a quaint fishing village for an endless stretch of concrete gridlock?

I don't understand why anyone thinks the Olympic$ will boost RE prices higher. If someone out there could point to any other host city where there wasn't a significant decline in RE property prices within 6-12 months of the games ending, I'd sure appreciate it. I can't seem to find one myself.

What if...

Vancouver's bubble bursts before Victoria's? Inventory is piling up there faster. Sales are slowing down there quicker. I'm referring to Chipman's area and Mohican's.

If the bubble to end all bubbles finally implodes, will it's mushroom cloud drift East or West? Will it radiate out like ripples on a pond or create a tsunami that will make the threat of "climate change rising sea-levels" seem like a better alternative?

One thing's for certain, when it happens, the TC will go down pumping mediocre website statistics for developments with 153 months of condo inventory (based on the last 90 day sales rate) while Ozzie claims to have warned us all back in 2005.

January VREB stats

Link

Sales of homes and other properties in the Greater Victoria area got off to a solid start in the first month of 2008. There were 464 sales through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, up from the 442 sales in the same month a year ago. There were 408 sales in December. Meantime, the total number of properties available for sale rose to 3,027 - a 14 per cent increase over January of last year.

Victoria Real Estate Board President, Tony Joe, says the market remains very healthy and the strong sales and increase in inventory represent good news for sellers and buyers. "There continues to be strong demand for homes that are realistically priced and the increase in the number of properties available for sale means more choice for buyers," said Joe. Joe noted that nearly 29 per cent of single family homes sold for less than $450,000 last month while nearly 37 per cent of all condominiums sold for under $275,000 in January.

Joe added that 19 sales of over $1 million had an upward impact on the average price of single family homes, "The average price of single family homes sold in January in Greater Victoria was $606,449 but it is important to note that the median price was considerably lower at $530,200." The six-month average for single family homes was $586,338. The average price of all condominiums sold in January was $349,045; the average for the last six months was $326,904. The median was again lower at $304,450. The average price of all townhomes sold last month was $423,774; the six month average was $419,926. The median price was $392,950.

MLS® sales last month included 249 single family homes, 125 condominiums, 43 townhomes and 16 manufactured homes.

I'll let comments reign supreme on this post.