Monday market update: woah nelly!

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month to date April 2011 (first 4 days of April in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 167 (47)
New Listings: 514 (135)
Active Listings: 4,103 (3,925)
Current sales to new listings ratio: 32%

April 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI

The spring listings frenzy is on. If current pace continues (and it likely won't) we'll see 1410 new listings this month. I'll put the final number closer to 1250 as the beginning of the month typically sees more listings than the end, and with a major long weekend (4 days of Easter) happening late April, I think we'll see this number slow down.

Obviously the short-term trend of declining sales volume is continuing. If current sales pace continues, we'll be hard pressed to break 500 sales for April 2011. I'll peg the final sales volume number to be somewhere around 520ish.

There's some evidence to suggest the gap between asking price and sales price is growing. There's also evidence to suggest the gap between sales price and assessed value (as per BC Assessment) is shrinking. Both of these factors suggest prices are falling (despite how VREB calculates average prices). Based on current supply demand ratios I'm tempted to suggest that negative price pressure is slight, not substantial at this time.

Further note: that last post had some significant discussion, which I'm very grateful for. Every time I wanted to publish a new post, I felt like I'd be interrupting the discussion. Thanks to all of you readers and commentators out there!   

Monday market update: 4 days of the same?

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month to date April 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 47
New Listings: 135
Active Listings: 3,925
Current sales to new listings ratio: 35%

April 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 756
New Listings: 1,783
Active Listings: 4,229
Sales to new listings ratio: 42%
Sales to active listings ratio: 18% or 5.6 MOI

Our local real estate market in Victoria is too small, with too few transactions, to read four days worth of data as any indication of a trend: be it a continuation of last month's activity or whatnot. But I'mmagonnadoitanyway!

In the first week of March 2011, approximately 17 units sold each day. Over the last 3 days of March 2011, approximately 26 units per day changed from active to pending in the VREB MLS system. In the first three days of April, we've seen 15 sales per day.

All this means absolutely nothing of course, but there's little indication in the sales numbers that buyers were pulled forward by the March 18th mortgage rule changes and there's no indication that the spring market is getting busier. Which is probably why around 300 listings expired at the end of March and haven't been renewed yet.

Feel free to refute my "it's not busy out there" claims with anecdotal evidence of under-priced Gordon Head homes selling in bidding wars or attracting big crowds at 2-hour long open houses on sunny Sunday afternoons.

Sales fall 21%, inventory up significantly in March

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

March 2011 (percent change from 2010 in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 622 (-21%)
New Listings: 1,501 (-13%)
Active Listings: 4,100 (+9.5%)
Sales to new listings ratio: 41%
Sales to active listings ratio: 15% or 6.6 MOI

March 2010 totals
Net Unconditional Sales: 789
New Listings: 1,719
Active Listings: 3,712
Sales to new listings ratio: 46%
Sales to active listings ratio: 21% or 4.7 MOI

Prepare for revised BCREA sales volumes forecasts soon. I have no idea how they think that sales volumes will increase from 2010 when the first three months of 2011 have shown a 20% declining trend.

If the mortgage rule changes indeed brought buyers forward (and it looks likethey may have slightly given the front-loaded sales volume in March) it didn't bring many. Are buyers exhausted, priced out or have Victorians finally figured out that paying $400K for a 2-bedroom crack shack on Burnside isn't a prudent financial decision? 

How does March 2011 stack up against the previous decade?

So why aren't prices falling yet? The trend is towards an over hang of inventory and a lack of sales volume. We're not into the trend long enough to see price pressure yet.

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Monday market update: feeling down?

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month to date March 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 544 (438) +106
New Listings: 1,262 (987) +275
Active Listings: 3,902 (3,855) +47
Weekly sales to new listings ratio: 43% (51%)
Month-to-date sales to new listings ratio: 43% (44%)

March 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 789
New Listings: 1,719
Active Listings: 3,712
Sales to new listings ratio: 46%
Sales to active listings ratio: 21% or 4.7 MOI  

Despite the arrival of spring, as indicated by the flowers and blossoms quickly making their presence known, the only dust collecting on the local real estate market isn't due to pollen, but rather stale listings.

Sales are definitely down year over year. Listings are definitely up year over year. There's little evidence of price pressure on the market, so we can't definitively say that buyers are getting good deals these days. Nope, sales price data is definitely disconnected from sales volume data right now. And I have few ideas why.

You?

All quiet on the western front

D-day passed us by unceremoniously on March 18th. You can be forgiven for not having noticed, what with sales so low regardless in 2011. What's happening out there now?

Here's the most active category of home sales in pictures (Single Family Homes under $550,000 near the core):

Nothing but new listings and price drops today and yesterday.

 

Big bunch of price reductions on the 22nd. I guess these sellers got the message that the buyer pool shriveled drastically after the mortgage rule changes took effect.

One sale on March 19.

Other Matrix and PCS accounts show little activity as well. Like the VREB, BCREA and CREA will be doing later this spring, I might have to revise down my anticipated monthly sales volume total soon.

Eerie ain't it? These are beautiful days to be shopping for a home. Lots of listings, few buyers, great weather, low interest rates. Maybe people have finally woken up to the truth about Victoria's over-priced market? Or maybe they're finally all tapped out? Or maybe this is just one isolated segment of the market that isn't representative of the rest?

Monday market update: it's a stalemate

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month to date March 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 438 (266) +172
New Listings: 987 (647) +340
Active Listings: 3,855 (3,638) +217
Weekly sales to new listings ratio: (51%)
Month-to-date sales to new listings ratio: 44% (41%)

March 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 789
New Listings: 1,719
Active Listings: 3,712
Sales to new listings ratio: 46%
Sales to active listings ratio: 21% or 4.7 MOI 

Listings should be piling on this time of year. They're not. At the current rate, with only 10 days left in the month, we'll be lucky to see 1400 new listings on the month. That's a 15% decline from March 2010. If you're thinking that means prices will rise, think again. Buyers are even less active in the market than sellers, with March 2011 sales on pace to decline some 20% from March 2010.

One thing's for sure: the VREB is well off the pace necessary to support their rising sales volume thesis for Victoria's market in 2011 when compared to a "dismal" 2010. Lucky for those who can't fathom falling prices, the sellers are on strike too.

It will be interesting to see if sales volume can keep pace with the first 18 days of March for the last 13. I'm willing to wager they won't. I think this market will be hard pressed to see 620 sales by month end. Prices will be flat, which equals plus or minus 3% in current sales volumes.

Unless there's a rush for the exits, likely caused by a black swan event, 2011 looks like a whole lot of no-change for the Victoria market. Now more than anytime in the past 5 years, if you're buying, you'd better be buying the home you're buying for the long term. If you think you can live in a condo for the next two years and trade up to a house.... good luck, you'll need it.