New years prediction roundup

End of the year and the annual numbers are in.   How did we do in last year's predictions?

	Leo	Koozdra	Marko	Caveat Emptor	Patriotz	Reasonfirst	ACTUAL
Sales	6200	5300	6400	6000	---	6100	6699
SFH 6 month average	$580,000	$550,000	$585,000	$565,000	---	---	$609,342*
BoC Interest Rate	1%	0.5%	1%	0.75%	---	1.25%	1%
Teranet June 2014	128	130	132	131	129	128	136.2
Teranet Dec 2014	124	126	131	128	124	125	TBD (Nov: 138.2)

* The 6 month average SFH price does not appear to be published anymore. This is the annual average.

Overall we all sucked.   Marko wins for being closest on every measure; that's why he gets paid the big bucks.

 Other predictions:
"House prices across the Canadian housing market may peak in 2014. Victoria's big price declines will likely begin after the Canadian housing market peaks and it is evident that house prices across Canada have begun to correct." - Info

"further controls will be added to the mortgage market but I think at least one of them will be head line grabbing. I'm going to go with regional caps re-established on CMHC insurance." - Koozdra  (some minor tweaks happened)

"I think we will see a drop in prices of approximately 5% by December (in Oak Bay)" - totoro

"In short, 2014 to early 2015 will see a sharp transition. This will result in either a significant increase in MOI or significantly lower prices; probably a combination of both." - LeoM

"MLS HPI (2014): - 4%" - Info (Actual: Up 2.1%)

"Any generalized market prediction would be meaningless in this market." - Just Jack

Assessments are also in and overall seem to be pretty flat except for in the periphery.

In important economic news, oil prices below $50 a barrel.  How long can the oil sands withstand operating at a loss before those camp jobs start evaporating?

Dec 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Updated Dec 22

	Dec 2014				Dec  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	112	198	306		355
New Listings	148	271	348		437
Active Listings	3455	3406	3301		3554
Sales to New Listings	76%	73%	88%		81%
Sales Projection	--	455	469
Months of Inventory					10

We won't be hitting the estimate as sales will drop off significantly at the tail end of the month.    Likely closer to 400.    Some signs of a slowdown with the Teranet composite down 0.3% in November with many cities showing a decline, including yours truly.  CMHC also continues to tinker, hiking fees to insure mortgage backed securities by up to 200%.

Update:  A while back there was some chatter about the appreciation rates of condos and single family homes.   I would think that since "they ain't making any more land", the appreciation rate for condos would lag that of SFHs.   So I took a simplistic look at the appreciation rates for both over all 5 year periods over the last 25 odd years and here's the result.

The rates are closer than I thought, but there definitely is a difference between the two.   Average 5 year appreciation is 38% for SFHs, and 32% for condos (or ~1% a year).   I would suspect that a re-sale based index would show a somewhat wider difference.
The condo market is also a bit more volatile, with a range from a 20% drop over 5 years to a 128% increase, while SFHs have ranged from a drop of only 7% to an increase of 109%.

Nov 25 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Nov 2014				Nov  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	137	234	357		412
New Listings	195	366	516		698
Active Listings	3722	3685	3639		4017
Sales to New Listings	70%	64%	69%		59%
Sales Projection	--	468	476
Months of Inventory					9.8

Nov 10 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Nov 2014				Nov  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	137				412
New Listings	195				698
Active Listings	3722				4017
Sales to New Listings	70%				59%
Sales Projection	--
Months of Inventory					9.8

Pretty comparable sales to this week last year but with somewhat lower inventory and fewer new listings coming online.

Oct 20 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Oct 2014				Oct  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	83	230	356		512
New Listings	178	393	556		979
Active Listings	4100	4060	3988		4322
Sales to New Listings	47%	59%	64%		52%
Sales Projection	--	661	630
Months of Inventory					8.4

There has been some discussion about this piece of "analysis" by a mortgage broker.  His theory is that when interest rates go up, so do prices.  Apparently in the last 30 years, increasing mortgage rates lead to increasing prices 62% of the time 2 months later.  Never mind that the two month lag is never justified (as Just Jack said, a 3 month rate hold would blow that out of the water).  The obvious gaping hole in this theory is that prices have been increasing for most of that 30 year period, so it's not at all surprising that 62% of the months they went up.  If someone were to care to evaluate the entire period they would probably find more than 62% of months that showed increasing prices.

Oct 14 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	Oct 2014				Oct  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	83	230			512
New Listings	178	393			979
Active Listings	4100	4060			4322
Sales to New Listings	47%	59%			52%
Sales Projection	--	661
Months of Inventory					8.4

Per Marko's request.  We're still (almost) the weakest market in the country for the past 7 years.  Edged out Edmonton in the last couple months but I suspect when September numbers are out we will be in last place.

What it cost to run our house.

In case anyone is wondering what it costs to run a pretty typical house, here is ours for last year:

Gordon head, 1970s build, ~2100sqft.   2 adults 1 child upstairs, 1 adult in suite downstairs.

Month	Hydro	Gas	Water/Sewer /Garbage	Property Tax	Insurance
January	$172.67	$86.25	$200.91
February	$164.64	$104.95
March	$164.64	$78.70
April	$96.83	$78.29
May	$96.83	$65.17
June	$57.49	$59.59	$222.13
July	$57.49	$45.90		$2,897.88	$957.00
August	$57.69	$79.23
September	$57.69	$70.33
October	$110.68	$50.91	$263.32
November	$110.68	$75.68
December	$172.67	$86.47
Total Utilities	$2,888.00
Total	$6,743.00

Heating is a heat pump with gas backup and baseboards downstairs.  Gas for hot water and 2 fireplaces (rarely used).   

So even without factoring the mortgage in, it costs about $560/month to keep the place operating.   Adding in mortgage interest, that goes to $1450/month.    Nothing big on maintenance, but the new gutters and some random Home Depot excursions probably added up to another $100/month.