Sunday, March 31, 2013

Regional Data

Mo data mo problems.

Today's update comes courtesy of HHV contributor Koozdra, who decided to liberate the complete monthly data out of the confines of the PDF format from VREB's excellent historical archive.  For those who are interested in the technical process, Koozdra explains here.


In short, we now have the monthly sales numbers, volume, average price, 6 month average price and median price for each housing type and each region back to 2006.

Here are some basic charts of the median prices for the various areas.  Note that even after a 3 month averaging window, the data is quite noisy due to few sales per region.  The regions with extremely low sales have been left out (Vic West, View Royal, Metchosin, Highlands, etc).


Oak Bay gets its own graph since it flattens the rest.  Again few sales make the data very noisy.

Langford and Colwood have been relatively hard hit.  Interesting how flat Sooke is though.  Maybe the credit restrictions have more effect in the younger communities?
  



Download the raw data here (right click, save as).

Monday, March 25, 2013

Mar 25 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

March 2013March 2012 
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Uncond. Sales150
259
382
570
New Listings433
732
980
1385
Active Listings4137
4215
4267
 4274
Sales to New Listings
 34%
35%
39%
 41%
Sales Projection500
470
478
Months of Inventory
7.5

Sales are just failing to pick up like they should for the spring.   Again we are lagging on sales/list and with our increased inventory we will see continued high MOI at end of month (~9 vs last year's 7.5).

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Monday, March 18, 2013

Market Update and a Glance at Equity

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

March 2013March 2012 
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Uncond. Sales150
259
570
New Listings433
732
1385
Active Listings4137
4215
 4274
Sales to New Listings
 34%
35%
 41%
Sales Projection500
470
Months of Inventory
7.5

Tracking extremely close to last year now with an identical sales rate and a couple more listings (sales/list last year this time was 37%).  If this spring is to stabilize the market somewhat then sales will have to pick up significantly.

On the topic of equity, here is the situation for home owners in Canada according to StatsCan.

Meanwhile, here is what happened to house prices.

Interesting how equity increased along with house prices from 2000 to Q1 2007 and then took a nosedive.    That is right around the time when CMHC opened the mortgage taps and started to fire up the market with a stream of new buyers that had previously been priced out.   Take a look at the mortgage changes that led up to this decline in equity, courtesy of Saskatoon Housing Bubble.

Mar 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 30 yr amortizations (Genworth announces 35 yr amortizations)
Jun 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 35 yr amortizations, interest only payments allowed for 10 years
Nov 2006 – CMHC: 0% down, 40 yr amortizations, interest only payments allowed for 10 years

The flat period after 2003 also perfectly lines up with the introduction of 5% down for everyone and the removal of CMHC price ceilings.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Time for some feedback

Unless you've been living under the proverbial rock, you'll know what to do here...


I want to see this on HHV
  
pollcode.com free polls 

Monday, March 11, 2013

March 11 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

March 2013March 2012 
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Uncond. Sales150

570
New Listings433
1385
Active Listings4137
 4274
Sales to New Listings
 34%
 41%
Sales Projection500
Months of Inventory
7.5

Relatively strong start to the month. Last year at this point we were running at 21.7 sales and 66 listings per business day, while so far this year we are seeing 25 sales and 72 listings.  Still 300 more active listings out there than the same time last year.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

200 comment update

Thanks to DavidL for the chart showing the relationship between averages and medians over the past 8 Februarys.  Of course it is but a single data point that diverges, but it is remarkable the consistency of previous years.


Made me think about whether there is some kind of pattern there so I plotted monthly data for the last 22 years.   Is there a pattern?  Dunno.  Might deserve some closer examination.  More importantly we can all stop clicking that annoying "Newer" link.