July 30 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	July 2013				July 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	120	256	381	513	523
New Listings	315	622	919	1123	1242
Active Listings	4762	4817	4855	4836	5178
Sales to New Listings	38%	41%	41%	46%	42%
Sales Projection	552	588	584	590
Months of Inventory					9.9

Reasonably solid week with 132 sales compared to 110 in the same week last year.  I suspect this pattern will continue for the rest of the summer and possibly the year unless mortgage rules are tightened again.  Compared to last year market conditions will look better, but make no mistake it is still weak out there.  July MOI will come in between 8 and 8.5.  Interestingly enough, active listings actually declined last week which usually doesn't happen until late August.

Joke of the day comes from DavidL who says "I hope that VREB will avoid spinning this as "sales volume up 5% over 2012""

July 21 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	July 2013				July 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	120	256	381		523
New Listings	315	622	919		1242
Active Listings	4762	4817	4855		5178
Sales to New Listings	38%	41%	41%		42%
Sales Projection	552	588	584
Months of Inventory					9.9

The third week of last July was the first week when sales started to seriously slow, dropping to 113 for the week from rates of 138 and 120.  This was most likely due to the mortgage rule changes starting to hit, and continued to make up the worst late summer, fall, and winter in well over 10 years.

No major mortgage changes yet this year (aside from the lenders becoming more and more nervous), and there is also no matching slowdown in sales, with last week hitting 125 (after 136 and 120 the weeks before).  Of course as the selling season winds down, sales will naturally start slowing regardless of the mortgage market.  Surprisingly enough, listings are up over last year by about 7%, hence our sales/list coming in a bit under.

July 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	July 2013				July 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	120	256			523
New Listings	315	622			1242
Active Listings	4762	4817			5178
Sales to New Listings	38%	41%			42%
Sales Projection	552	588
Months of Inventory					9.9

Might as well repost last year's numbers they are so close.  What's interesting though is that last year we had these month end anomalies with the inventory, where the weekly updates showed a couple hundred less active listings than were reported in the month-end from VREB.  For example, July 30, 2012, the reported active inventory was 4939.  However two days later, it was apparently 5178. 

This year this is not happening, and month end numbers are basically what one would expect given the weekly updates.  Last year Marko explained it was a different algorithm run at the end of the month, but I don't understand what algorithm is involved in counting.   Data fudging or what is going on here?

July 8 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	July 2013				July 2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	120				523
New Listings	315				1242
Active Listings	4762				5178
Sales to New Listings	38%				42%
Sales Projection	552
Months of Inventory					9.9

First week of July 2012 was exactly the same at 120 sales and 306 listings.    Goes to show the uselessness of projections in the first week, as back then HHV (using calendar day method) projected 465 sales.   Business days (ignoring the holiday) gives us 552, the predictor based on last year and June's sales gives us 551 using calendar days, or 613 using business days.

Edit:  Die giant fonts die!

June wrap up

The VREB is up to it's usual optimistic antics with June's report, saying that real estate has rebounded in the second quarter.   A truly amazing 65% more activity in the second quarter than the first.  I can't wait for the 3rd quarter when they report that sales activity has collapsed compared to the second quarter.

As is every month, June was a balanced market in their eyes.  Despite their convoluted active-listings-to-sales-ratio, this time they may have a point, since the residential MOI at 6 is on the tall side of balanced, and 14% lower than last year.

Here's a tower of graphs for you.

How's the decline from peak looking?   Little rebound this spring, but expect it to keep dropping in the following months.

Despite the VREB's hyperventilating (it is hot out there), 2013 is still the slowest year for sales in almost 15 years.

MOI seems to have peaked, at least for the time being.   Before anyone gets too excited though, the MOI in Seattle peaked as well, and the market kept declining for 3 years.  What do you think, are we past peak inventory?

Alberta floods: black swan that kills the market?

Calgary, arguably Canada's centre of economic growth, is slowly drying out after a massive flood event that few were warning about even 24 hours before the Bow and Elbow Rivers started hammering the downtown core and surrounding neighbourhoods with flood waters unrivaled since the 1930s.

This most definitely could be an economic black swan that affects all corners of our great nation.

A black swan is defined as "an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major effect, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight."

Pundits are already suggesting that Canada's GDP reporting numbers will shift as a result. I've read stories suggesting that Calgary--not to mention Canmore, High River, Medicine Hat and communities in between--has roughly $5 billion worth of damage. These numbers will certainly climb as businesses feel the trickle down effect of once-disposable cash being pulled from the economy to be spent on things like foundations and drywall. The richest province in Canada most certainly will be borrowing money on the open market for the first time in a decade.

And the Calgary housing market will most definitely be affected.

Given the fact that Calgary's wealthiest neighbourhoods were some of the hardest hit, and Calgarian's penchant for holding second homes on Vancouver Island and the Okanogan, I suspect that these markets could suffer, at minimum, a minor ripple effect.

Exactly what happens elsewhere time will tell.

 

June 24 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	June 2013				June2012
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Uncond. Sales	173	341	506		637
New Listings	418	730	1002		1449
Active Listings	4809	4848	4863		5189
Sales to New Listings	41%	47%	50%		44%
Sales Projection	692	682	675
Months of Inventory					8.1

Market contines to outpace last year by a bit, partially because of increased sales and partially because of significantly reduced new listings.  Will interest rates rising be this year's big event?