Mar 26 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	March 2014				March  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	132	259	393		483
New Listings	361	664	953		1231
Active Listings	3826	3927	4007		4333
Sales to New Listings	37%	39%	41%		39%
Sales Projection	---	543	550
Months of Inventory					9.0

On track for about 15% increase in sales over last year.  It's a misleading comparison though, because in March of 2012 we had 570 sales, in 2011 we had 622, and in 2010 there were 789.   The sales rate is still in the toilet, just not the worst we've ever seen.

By the way, is anyone actually swayed by arguments around what the average person is or isn't doing?  The average homeowner won't be in trouble.  The average Canadian doesn't buy US property.  What the heck is the average Canadian?   Anyone have a definition of average that don't make those statements completely meaningless?

Market update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	March 2014				March  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	132	259			483
New Listings	361	664			1231
Active Listings	3826	3927			4333
Sales to New Listings	37%	39%			39%
Sales Projection	---	543
Months of Inventory					9.0

Despite all appearances, House Hunt Florida continues.
And it seems so does the Victoria market.   Sales seem to be off to a strong start here, a bit of a surge unlike last year.  Do people buy houses during spring break?   If this pace continues we will eclipse last March in sales by quite a bit, and even post a somewhat respectable number.    Wonder how our new finance minister will react to his predecessor's failed efforts to tame the housing market?


Update thanks to poobserv:  Looks like I'm dyslexic and wrote 295 rather than 259.  Sales are ahead of last year's pace but not nearly as much as previously stated.

It's March

High time for the spring market to get going.   So how is it looking?  Well not that great.  The VREB has the details as always.

Marginally better sales than last year but that's nothing to write home about.   We're still far off any semblance of a good market.   

More graphs coming later, for now, here's an advertisement idea I saw for you, Marko.  Maybe hand out some flyers?

Courtesy of the League of Gentlemen.

Feb 18 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	February 2014				February  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	101	200			394
New Listings	372	588			1039
Active Listings	3556	3599			4072
Sales to New Listings	27%	34%			38%
Sales Projection	---	400
Months of Inventory					10.3

Pretty steady sales rate of 100/week.   Soon we will no longer be blowing last year's numbers out the water for sales.  But the government is getting nervous again, with some tweaks to CMHC in the 2014 budget.  If the market in the rest of the country doesn't settle down soon there will be more, and more significant ones.

January Roundup

A few days late, a few graphs short, but here's some info about how the market fared in January.  The full report is as always, over at the VREB.   Their new president, Tim Ayres (a past contributor to this blog) seems to be much more reserved with his opinions.   Of course he deals out in Sooke a lot so he has looked the decline in the eyes more than most.   Sales are up, but Tim knows it's hardly cause to celebrate given the extremely low levels last January in the depths of the hit from the mortgage changes.

Another sobering discovery that the VREB has made is the MLS HPI.  In previous years they would have trumpeted gains in the median price (up a staggering 11% Jan 2013 to 2014!!!!) but now they know this is mostly nonsense because the HPI over the same period is down 1.7%.   If you're unlucky enough to live on the peninsula, SFH prices are down just shy of 5%.

Yearly medians are edging up due to sales mix changes, a reduction in the MOI, and the dropping out of last year's very low January numbers.

Looking forward, the sales to new listings ratio gives a clue as to the direction of the market.  It has recovered from it's lows lately, and is heading to the levels seen in the late 90s, which is more in line with the flat market scenario rather than the declines we've seen in the last 4 years.  Of course all this is depending on continued low rates and no more government meddling (and you know how much they like to meddle).

Looking back at the peak, things are about the same median price wise, with SFH down 8%, condos down 12%.  Only townhouses have gone insane in recent months.  Clearly the low sales in this category make this measure far too volatile for anything other than entertainment value.  Just Jack, care to explain a $100k increase in townhouse medians within a few months?

By the way how's that affordability picture looking these days?   If Victoria were governed by more traditional definitions of what constitutes affordable housing, what would the average family be paying?   Based on the average income, 20% down, and current 5 year rates, that would be about $470,000.    So only about a $100k gap to go.

Edit:   LeoM asks: "Has anyone done a Victoria graph similar to the Toronto graph?"

Here is that:

Update:  Regraphed in 2013 dollars and with a power trend line as per Koozdra's request.

Or log scale if you wish....

Although a log scale of inflation adjusted house prices sends quite the wrong message...

Jan 27 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

	January 2014				January  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	71	167	243		294
New Listings	362	610	854		1080
Active Listings	3295	3346	3340		3870
Sales to New Listings	20%	27%	28%		27%
Sales Projection	---	295	310
Months of Inventory					13.2

Surprisingly enough sales dropped second week to third, but we'll still easily exceed last year's total.  

2014 Predictions

Time for another prediction thread.  What will happen in 2014?

My guesses are:
1. VREB sales of 6200 (up slightly from 2013).
2. Greater Victoria 6 month SFH average in Dec 2014:  $580,000 (currently $593,000)
3. BoC overnight rate in Dec 2014: 1%
4. Teranet June 2014: 128 (currently 133)
5. Teranet Dec 2014: 124

As for macro events, the larger economy will be sluggish and boring, with Canada not making any headway on unemployment in 2014.  We will be teetering on the edge of deflation, and if the Bank of Canada is going anywhere it is more likely to be to cut rates than to raise them.   The US will slowly dial back stimulus but in baby steps.  Fixed mortgage rates within a narrow range of current values.

We are off the recent peak of months of inventory as the last mortgage changes worked their way through the market, but as the rest of the country goes gangbusters, I suspect there will be more tweaking of the CMHC this year.   Something less headline grabbing than a reduction in the amortizations, perhaps a tweak to the maximum TDS ratios.

Edit:  And the monthly numbers from Marko

	January 2014				January  2013
	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4
Unconditional Sales	71	167			294
New Listings	362	610			1080
Active Listings	3295	3346			3870
Sales to New Listings	20%	27%			27%
Sales Projection	---	295
Months of Inventory					13.2

The linear sales projection is meaningless in a month like January where sales increase strongly from the first weeks.  We'll be well over 300.