We all know that the correction of the second half of the 90s was the kind that the government is trying to orchestrate right now: a soft landing where prices declined a little, but then just stayed flat until incomes caught up.
Generally the debate on this blog is between market bulls and bears, but I believe Dasmo coined the term halibut for those that think we are in for another flat market like the 90s. So let's look at the situation at that time and see how it compares to today.
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| SFH Median and Residential MOI for Greater Victoria 1996-2012 (click to enlarge) |
The average MOI from 1996 (the earliest available active listing data) to the end of 2000 was 7.3 and prices were appropriately fishy. If we look at the last two years, we see an average MOI of 8.1 or about 10% higher than in the 90s. Sure enough in that time we've seen some gentle declines. The current inventory is certainly quite extraordinary. If we continue to see YoY increases in MOI we will start to see the market slide faster.
In other news here are the latest VREB Monday numbers thanks to Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.
October 2012 month to date (previous weeks in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 166 (106)
New Listings: 483 (276)
Active Listings: 4616 (4565)
Sales to new listings ratio: 34% (38%)
October 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 483
New Listings: 1086
Active Listings: 4687
Sales to new listings ratio: 44%
Sales to active listings ratio: 10.3% or 9.7 MOI
205 comments:
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Whoops. Good catch! Corrected now.
Welcome, lolatengo.
Introvert is the president, of the welcoming committie and will stop bye with, a froot bascket.
Congrats on the new digs Totoro, nothing more exciting than moving day!
Been smokin', smokin' busy with work (reno'ing a retail spot so exciting moving day coming up for us too).
Marko's pcs v. realtor.ca stats surprised me. I had assumed I was unusual in preferring PCS but apparently not.
Makes sense though - PCS pushes preferred data at us. It takes the work out of keeping up. An easy click on the link and voila! new information appears. Realtor.ca requires a bit more time and effort.
After all, we are the culture standing by the microwave yelling 'hurry"! :-))) (J. Rivers)
Yes, Totoro. Congrats on the impending move. I thought of offering to help move, but I guess part of the power in us speaking candidly here is our anonymity.
Marco, I'd love to see you post the stats for the success of mere postings. How many of them sell? I know the answer to that and its not favourable. I've spoken to Realtors who offer mere postings and they tell me its volume business. They don't care if the house sells because they get paid $750 for every listing, where with a traditional model the Realtor absorbs all costs if the house doesn't sell. The realtor offering a mere posting will use that as a loss leader to connect with the client and when the property doesn't sell will "upgrade" them to a full service model. So they may get $750 PLUS a full listng commission. I also must point out that as a realtor you don't speak very positively about your profession.
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