| March 2013 | March 2012 | ||||
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Uncond. Sales | 150 |
570
| |||
| New Listings | 433 |
1385
| |||
| Active Listings | 4137 |
4274
| |||
| Sales to New Listings |
34%
|
41%
| |||
| Sales Projection | 500 | ||||
| Months of Inventory |
7.5
| ||||
Relatively strong start to the month. Last year at this point we were running at 21.7 sales and 66 listings per business day, while so far this year we are seeing 25 sales and 72 listings. Still 300 more active listings out there than the same time last year.
214 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 214 of 214Our friend Ron McNeal is seeing some seriously slowing in sales compared to last years poor showing. What is wrong with buyers? Don't they know that this is the new normal. House prices will now be high forever.
"Those home sellers in need of last year’s prices are, however, finding themselves out of luck as the market dropped sharply in sales volume and price especially since the latest mortgage rule changes introduced in July 2012. My personal crystal ball sees prices continuing to slip a little before stabilizing in the near future, but most of the drop has already occurred."
http://victoriarealestateexpertblog.com/2013/03/06/rons-candid-comments-on-the-victoria-real-estate-market-march-2013/
Just like what happened in the states!
Marko have a talk with your brother in arms. If we keep the information from the masses they will continue to think that the housing market isn't falling apart. We don't "them" knowing too much.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/real+estate+sales+decline+helps+fuel+drop+home/8099556/story.html
The average South Okanagan price was down almost 20 per cent at $244,666, compared with $304,421 in February 2012.
Ouch.
maybe i will just move to okanagan... mediterranean summers here we come!
"Muir’s estimate is that with sales down for such a long period, there are enough potential buyers who have put off decisions that there is what economists call “pent-up demand” building in the market and “it’s not a matter of if, but when home sales rise above their current pace.”"
What people don't understand is that buyers are not a cohesive group. We don't get together at the annual buyer's convention in Tolstoy, MB. We don't all subscribe to the Buyer's Monthly newsletter. We don't do things in a coordinated manner.
If buyers are acting in a certain way it means there is something external to them that is causing that behaviour.
Buyers aren't buying. It's not because Hogan Verstrug of the Buyer's Association of Canada tweeted "hey guys, hold off on buying for now". It's because people can't access to money for some reason.
If they could get access to the money they would continue buying. They would continue to be as deluded as they have ever been about the soundness of our housing market.
Buyer's aren't taking a break. They have been creditorially castrated.
I hope you aren't planning on selling any time soon.
buyers are not a cohesive group but they are all not buying for the same reason?
"but they are all not buying for the same reason?"
What's your theory? Everybody just changed their minds all of a sudden?
I have friends that are looking and haven't bought because they haven't found the right place for the right price. It's not 2003, there is no rush to buy right now. I went to an open house with them the other weekend and it was busy. No one bought it though....
"I have friends that are looking and haven't bought because they haven't found the right place for the right price. It's not 2003, there is no rush to buy right now. I went to an open house with them the other weekend and it was busy. No one bought it though.... "
Why aren't your friends willing to pay the high prices that everyone else has? What's changed?
We've had this kind of inventory before and sales have remained steady in the previous couple of years. Why now? What happened?
More importantly, what do you think will turn it around.
To buy, or not to buy, that is the question
Not whether it’s Nobler in the mind to suffer
Paying twice for the same the renter does,
For it is in that sleep of debt, what nightmares come
That makes acceptance of the herd so hunted,
For who else would bear the banker ball and chains of time
In such Seas of Depreciation to the distant horizon.
Financial meltdown: 2008
Today: 2013
Victoria's prices: down 10% from peak
Slowest. Correction. Ever.
"Slowest. Correction. Ever."
The correction has only begun.
Introvert, would you like to weigh in on the debate? What's going to turn the sales numbers around?
"must mean new mortgages. No other explanation is possible for that statement.
I doubt it's true even for new mortgages. Since when did new buyers have 48% down payments in 2003? No way."
The article is talking about home equity, not down payments.
The 6% average home equity that info suggests is complete BS.
From Statscan
"According to the 2008 Survey of Household Spending, there were 13 million households in Canada, of which about 65% owned a home. Among homeowners, 57% made a mortgage payment in 2008 and the remaining 43% were mortgage-free."
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-001-x/2011002/article/11429-eng.htm#a3.
Mathematically impossible for there to be 6% average home equity in Canada unless you are talking about some very limited subset of recent buyers.
Slowest. Correction. Ever.
But it's correcting.
So who wants to buy within 8% of the peak in a correcting market, with a 30 or 40% downside potential?
The correction has been slow because folks have been slow to perceive that a correction has begun.
And there is a logical connection between the financial crisis and a slow correction. The financial crisis gave rise to record-low, emergency real interest rates.
Many first-time buyers were seduced by the zero real interst rate policy to take a huge leveraged gamble on real estate. What many are playing with is their life-time disposable incomes.
That is why RE promotion is so critical. Unless the crazed hope of an ever inflating RE market can be maintained, prices will subside.
Once a negative price trend is clear to all, a collapse will be inevitable.
"Muir’s estimate is that with sales down for such a long period, there are enough potential SELLERS who have put off decisions that there is what economists call “pent-up SUPPLY” building in the market...."
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