| April 2013 | April 2012 | ||||
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Uncond. Sales | 116 |
586
| |||
| New Listings | 345 |
1470
| |||
| Active Listings | 4323 |
4638
| |||
| Sales to New Listings |
34%
|
40%
| |||
| Sales Projection | 510 | ||||
| Months of Inventory |
7.9
| ||||
Last year we had 145 sales in the first 5 business days of the month so we're continuing to lag both in sales and sales/list. Of course the Easter pseudo-stat confuses the week a bit, so don't put too much stock in that number.
My future sales predictor for April says to expect 502 sales.
On the topic of the Economist's idea that prices in Canada are 78% overvalued relative to rents, I've never thought this was a particularly solid indicator, and I don't understand why it is continually cited. Here's a few problems with it that I can see.
- I've never been able to find a detailed description of their methodology. What are their data sources, what are their parameters, what do they mean by "long run average"? Everyone only brings up this graphic which is short on details.
- The metric for determining over/undervaluation is current ratios compared to "long run averages". Nevermind that that term isn't defined, it also ignores the different state of development of different countries. The Switzerland of 50 years ago is a lot more similar to the Switzerland of today than the Canada of 50 years ago is to todays. This might be a moot point though, since they cite Teranet, which is certainly no basis for any "long run" average. It would make a lot more sense to me to compare prices against a standard multiple of rent.
- Doesn't pass the smell test. As dasmo said, 78% overvalued just doesn't compute in the real world.
257 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 257 of 257The Colwood crawl is pretty horrendous if you ever want to get into town - or... work there.
Who's to say you'd ever want to?
Shopping on the West side, they have it.
Work, they got it.
And you might have noticed how much of a crawl there is getting out of the "core" any time after about 2.30 PM.
My priority happens to be walkability and amenities nearby like schools, stores, rec center, library and parks. Neighbourhood charm is also not lost on me.
A bit of "core" chauvinism here, I think. I mean, they do have a library in Langford, and schools, and shops -- yer know, real big ones -- and a university and the newest and best equipped hospital in the region.
If you are okay with lots of driving if you can have a bigger newer house then it might be a perfect match.
Like everyone who doesn't live in Victoria is dying to spend hours driving to Victoria to soak up the charm!
Price isn't the best way to determine happiness.
House price is likely a lousy way of determining happiness. But it is a pretty decent way of determining the relative desirability of neighbourhoods. If comparable housing in Fairfield costs more than in Colwood, that means the market on average finds the attributes of Fairfield more valuable than the attributes of Colwood. It certainly doesn't imply much about individual or collective happiness in either community though.
There is probably a WEAK link between house price and happiness in that individuals living in high priced neighbourhoods are likely higher income which correlates (to a limited extent) with happiness.
A better way to measure how satisfied people are would be to measure the turn over rate in the neighborhoods
Not sure I buy that. A neighbourhood could have high turnover rate for reasons unrelated to happiness. For example a neighbourhood of "starter homes" might have high turnover but that doesn't mean the folks there were unhappy while they were there. What about a neighbourhood with a lot of rental stock?
"...individuals living in high priced neighbourhoods are likely higher income..."
There are five percenters in every neighbourhood.
How many? We'll find out in the coming years.
@CS
If you find the attributes of the Westshore superior to those of the core then count yourself lucky. It means that you will be able to satisfy your housings needs/desires with less money, whether buying or renting.
There are five percenters in every neighbourhood.
For sure - but if the bank gave you 5/95 on a million that implies a higher income than 5/95 on 350K.
Way to go Marco, you got slammed by the great GT. I get the feeling he dosn't like Realtors? Well we still love you...
Higher salaries? No.
Just more of them. Leaving them more vulnerable to an economic downturn or a spike in vacancy rates.
@Caveat
If comparable housing in Fairfield costs more than in Colwood, that means the market on average finds the attributes of Fairfield more valuable than the attributes of Colwood.
Absolutely. And the attribute of Fairfield that the "market" finds more valuable than in Colwood is that it is closer to where more people currently have jobs.
Perhaps the Westshore communities should put up a statue, a lady holding a lamp maybe:
""Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
But the thing is, Langford's population is expected to grow by 123% by 2026, whereas the population of the core will hardly increase at all. So where will house prices rise fastest, on Caveat emptor's principle, in the core or on the West shore?
"And the attribute of Fairfield that the "market" finds more valuable than in Colwood is that it is closer to where more people currently have jobs."
The market also likes the perceived immunity of Victoria's housing market. Go ahead and buy that three quarter of a million dollar junker. It'll sell for more, guaranteed.
Disclaimer: not actually guaranteed.
Victoria:
78% commute under 5K
33% walked or biked to work
Colwood
33% commute under 5 K
8% walk or bike to work
Source
Commuting sucks
Quoting from the above:
In 2006, Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and Princeton economist Alan Krueger surveyed 900 Texan women, asking them how much they enjoyed a number of common activities. Having sex came in first. Socializing after work came second. Commuting came in dead last.
How many families are dual income killing? Sorry no stats on that.
Dual income is the new single income. Get used to it proletariat.
First up. dasmo, you're using "it's" when it should be "its." Gotta correct you, even though you're my halibu-ddy.
But the thing is, Langford's population is expected to grow by 123% by 2026, whereas the population of the core will hardly increase at all.
The core has not much land left to develop. So population growth can't happen as it can in the West Shore. However, prices can remain high and also climb over time, since many individuals wish they lived in Fairfield but have to settle for Langford. Higher desirability equals higher prices.
The population-growth-equals-awesomeness argument has been tried many times before. It's too simple and ignores other significant factors at work.
Disclaimer: not actually guaranteed.
Disclaimer: not guaranteed today. But, interestingly, was virtually guaranteed for a significant period of time in the recent past.
"So where will house prices rise fastest, on Caveat emptor's principle, in the core or on the West shore?"
Personally I'd look for areas relatively close to the core that are not yet seen as desirable (Vic West, Esquimalt, parts of Saanich). Vancouver showed that there is a lot of potential price increase when formerly mediocre neighbourhoods start to gentrify.
OTOH I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the West Shore outperforming the core. If that area develops as more of an economy of it's own vs a bedroom and big box store annex of Victoria
That is a good stat caveat.
I have a hard time understanding why people commute to Colwood willingly for a bigger house. I try and it doesn't make sense. How much space do you really need?
As far as work, I know lots of people like me who work from home in OB. Internet changed everything.
^its (sorry Introvert - see sometimes it is just laziness and speed not lack of literacy)
Dual income is the new single income. Get used to it proletariat.
I'd love to get into the theory side of society's overall negative trajectory, the lack of democracy, unacceptable and pernicious work/life balances, the "value" of work itself, Neoliberalism, and so on, but, speaking strictly practically, Victoria has crossed a threshold and, even with near-certain price declines in the short-term, the days of quite affordable housing in the core are over for good, IMO.
"I'd love to get into the theory side of society's overall negative trajectory, the lack of democracy, unacceptable and pernicious work/life balances..."
Things are going to get a lot worse before they start getting better.
OTOH I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the West Shore outperforming the core.
Totally agree. From an investment perspective, parts of the West Shore may have the potential to see greater price appreciation than parts of the core. But I don't think Langford will ever become the "new Oak Bay." Sorry.
Things are going to get a lot worse before they start getting better.
Hopefully. I'm quite anti-status quo, except, strangely, when it comes to Victoria real estate.
Well here is the turn over rates for the different areas using the 2011 census for number of households and the total number of sales in 2012
The district with the lowest turn over in housing stock for 2012 was Esquimalt at 2.71%
2.71% - Esquimalt
2.92% - Victoria
3.05% - Saanich
3.40% - North Saanich
3.58% - Oak Bay
3.70% - Central Saanich
4.04% - Colwood
4.41% - View Royal
5.42% - Sidney
5.46% - Langford
5.79% -Sooke
But how successfull were home owners in selling their properties in these hoods? Comparing the total listings to total sales in 2012 it appears that home owners in Sidney had the best odds of selling their home with 1.97 listings for each sale.
1.97 - Sidney
2.10 - Saanich
2.15 - Oak Bay
2.20 - Central Saanich
2.24 - Victoria
2.25 - Colwood
2.34 - Esquimalt
2.36 - View Royal
2.40 - North Saanich
2.46 - Langford
3.29 - Sooke
Personally, I can not see a clear "winner" in which area is more desirable over another. I suspect that Saanich crosses the line by a nose over Victoria with Oak Bay a close half stride behind.
Central Saanich appears to be a contender but she may always be just a bridesmaids and never the bride.
And Sooke with the highest percentage of total housing stock for sale and the lowest success rate in selling does limp in last. Although I strongly suspect that the massive amount of new construction skews the numbers for both Langford and Sooke.
For years the stated core municipalities were always "the four core municipalities of Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt and Saanich (E&W)". Just recently it seems, they, (...whomever they are) starting throwing View Royal into the mix.
I am seeing much activity on my PCS this week. The numbers will surpass last year's for the same week. It has been raining a lot as well.
JJ: Your comments on property types were bang on. I guess I wasn't clear....what I was trying to express was when someone mentions a triplex or a fourplex for example, one assumes or visualizes this as a one owner property. The term semi-detached, or more popularly, semi, has been used in England for along time. But in Canada, except for BC the term has only been used since the late 60's. Up until then we considered a duplex the same as we did a triplex or fourplex....i.e. one title and one owner. So, it would be clearer if we used the terms, half-duplex, semi-detached, or strata titled duplex
when we are referring to ownership....because we do this with the other types...triplex...fourplex...you own the entire structure with it having one title, ....otherwise separate titles for strata-duplex,townhouse or condo.
Anyway with your wealth of knowledge, I can only guess that you are either a not so busy real estate lawyer or a public employee at the land titles office. We would certainly miss your knowledge and humour if you left us.
And Sooke with the highest percentage of total housing stock for sale and the lowest success rate in selling does limp in last.
And is it a coincidence that Sooke is a hicktown that is a minimum 45-minute drive away from downtown Victoria?
I couldn't determine how many "hicks" live in Sooke. However, I now know that there is one in Oak Bay.
Hey, JJ. I don't even like country music!
I can actually see the appeal of Sooke though. If you are a farmer/homesteader/fisherperson at heart it is a nice little community.
I often stop at Mom's Cafe for a piece of Lemon Meringue pie after a run on the Juan de Fuca Trail - Sooke is the gateway to a lot of beautiful country. I can see the appeal as well.
Anyway with your wealth of knowledge, I can only guess that you are either a not so busy real estate lawyer or a public employee at the land titles office.
If JJ works on the public dime, I'm going to place a call to the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation.
I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the West Shore outperforming the core. If that area develops as more of an economy of it's own vs a bedroom and big box store annex of Victoria
Ha! The West shore just leeches off the "core" does it? Except that no one has provided the slightest evidence that that is the case.
But since consumption is about 70% of the Canadian economy, with just about all the rest being RE, it's surely Victoria with it's taxpayer supported government services, university and hospitals, that's leeching off the economy of the West shore with its mass of big boxes and its relatively massive construction industry, rather than the other way around.
In any case, I'm sure folks living on the West side don't drive to the core to get their hair cut, their shoes repaired or their car fixed.
I can actually see the appeal of Sooke though. If you are a farmer/homesteader/fisherperson at heart it is a nice little community.
I often stop at Mom's Cafe for a piece of Lemon Meringue pie after a run on the Juan de Fuca Trail - Sooke is the gateway to a lot of beautiful country. I can see the appeal as well.
Absolutely. I like Sooke, too. But it doesn't have mass appeal. It's a niche market. And it's a terrible place to live in terms of commuting every day to downtown and the core.
I imagine that the people who live in Sooke can be crudely divided into two groups: those who choose to live in Sooke primarily for its unique attributes, and those who choose to live there because it's one of the most affordable places to purchase property that is still in the general vicinity of Victoria.
Introvert - agree with your assessment of Sooke. My logic is often swayed by my stomach.
Krugman discusses Lust for Gold.
Inflation, like a price meltdown in Victoria real estate, is just around the corner, right guys?
Ha! The West shore just leeches off the "core" does it?
@CS - That's a weird way to take my words. Common knowledge plus the commuting statistics I provided all support the contention that many people who live in the West Shore don't work there - in other words a bedroom community.
That doesn't make them "leeches". Not at all. They serve an essential function.
My logic is often swayed by my stomach.
I know! I, too, love stopping to eat in Sooke after a hike on the JDF Trail. And another thing I like about Sooke is its tiny post office; it's so damn cute! I'm such a sucker for those sorts of things. Have you been to Tofino's library? Adorable.
I just may end up retiring to a small town somewhere on this fine island.
The idea seems to be that people living on the West shore are folks driven by poverty out of the core, to dwell in the stinking favelas on the Western periphery.
But what we have shown is that not only do you get a better house for your money on the West shore, but that there is a greater number of expensive ($750K and up) houses on the West shore than in OB and Gordon Head combined.
So clearly there are many prosperous people living on the West shore, who live there not because they cannot afford even a dilapidated wreck in OB or even Esquimalt, but because either that's the most convenient place for them to live because they are part of the thriving and rapidly expanding West shore economy, or because they find the quality of life on the West shore better than in the core.
@Alexandrahere
For years the stated core municipalities were always "the four core municipalities of Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt and Saanich (E&W)". Just recently it seems, they, (...whomever they are) starting throwing View Royal into the mix.
View Royal wasn't incorporated until 1988. Until then, it was an unincorporated area of the City of Victoria. (Anyone remember the City of Victoria used to own Thetis Lake Park and had a nursery off Six Mile Road.)
"So clearly there are many prosperous people living on the West shore"
Undoubtedly. People choose to live in the 'burbs for a ton of reasons. Larger lot size, lower crime (or at least the perception of lower crime), faster to get out of town for recreation, have local work in the burbs, want to live in a newer house etc.
In my personal experience many, many people are willing to put up with a longer commute in order to get a newer, larger house. I think their priorities are wrong but de gustibus non est disputandum.
Personally I love the region for its different qualities. I like pitching and putting @ Juan de Fuca or playing paintball in Metchosin or seeing the fish spawn at Goldstream park. BUT, I'm sorry, Langford or Colwood do not have downtown cores and do not provide an urban lifestyle. Living in Fairfeild does. I might add that Fairfeild's desirability is not only due to proximity to ones work. It has some of the nicest tree lined streets of any hood, it is close to Beacon Hill Park, Close to the ocean, a pleasant walk or bike downtown, the village, and it is long established and stable. There is no debate here. This is all reflected in the prices there...
Go ahead Introvert, I take no offence. Unlike others, I can take it and fully admit to my poor grammar skills. In fact, instead of blaming the computer for my errors I attribute it for making my spelling better over all!
In my personal experience many, many people are willing to put up with a longer commute in order to get a newer, larger house.
'Weighting Mistake' Leads to Long Commutes and Daily Misery
They found that, when people are choosing where to live, they consistently underestimate the pain of a long commute. This leads people to mistakenly believe that the big house in the exurbs will make them happier, even though it might force them to drive an additional hour to work.
Of course, as [David] Brooks notes, that time in traffic is torture, and the big house isn't worth it. According to the calculations of Frey and Stutzer, a person with a one-hour commute has to earn 40 percent more money to be as satisfied with life as someone who walks to the office. Another study, led by Daniel Kahneman and the economist Alan Krueger, surveyed nine hundred working women in Texas and found that commuting was, by far, the least pleasurable part of their day.
I like how I have many options on my commute that all take under 15 minutes; Drive, Bus or bike. I can also walk to work in under 25 minutes...Would I pay an extra 250k for that? Only if I could afford it otherwise I would live somewhere else too...
@dasmo - the only thing that is hard to take about Fairfield is the relative lawlessness of the pitbull testing grounds along the Dallas Rd waterfront. I have had more bad run-is with dogs when running through there than in all the areas of Victoria combined.
@dasmo - the only thing that is hard to take about Fairfield is the relative lawlessness of the pitbull testing grounds along the Dallas Rd waterfront. I have had more bad run-is with dogs when running through there than in all the areas of Victoria combined.
Traveling from Mayfair mall to Cadboro bay at rush hour is no walk in the park either…
I hear you simple. I have to say I am glad Gonzo beach outlawed dogs in the summer month. I found the owners yelling all the time was irritating...
2206 Lydia St over asking (559k) for 575k.
Traveling from Mayfair mall to Cadboro bay at rush hour is no walk in the park either…
Should be able to bike that no problems.
"pitbull testing grounds"
:-) So true!
Most dog owners are pretty good, but a few ignorant ones can leave a pretty bad taste.
How Class Works - Richard Wolff
Krugman discusses Lust for Gold.
@Introvert
“Inflation, like a price meltdown in Victoria real estate, is just around the corner, right guys?”
Huh? You know grammar… you NO know real estate.
Gold and real estate need lots inflation same as you need air. Take away…suffocate fast!
I swear that the worst job in all Victoria is the poor person that has to empty the garbage cans along Dallas Rd in the summertime.
DavidL: Gotcha, but I think of the four core being Vic,OB,Esq & Saanich (E&W) because they are the communities that actually abut Victoria, the rest don't.
The place on Lydia. Seems crazy. I don't see the value there... Ancient, relatively close to shelbourne, way over assessment. Spring insanity.
Yes. Spring insanity. The last hurrah before the sky falls. Must be.
The last hurrah before the sky falls. Must be.
There is no hurrah in this market. It's just falling, plain and simple.
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