| May 2013 | May 2012 | ||||
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | ||
| Uncond. Sales | 96 |
235
| 367 | 520 |
659
|
| New Listings | 277 | 584 | 916 | 1173 |
1740
|
| Active Listings | 4568 | 4642 | 4724 | 4745 |
5015
|
| Sales to New Listings |
35%
| 40% | 40% | 44% |
38%
|
| Sales Projection | --- | 600 | 602 | 664 | |
| Months of Inventory |
7.6
| ||||
Another mini sales surge like we saw in mid April. Again we will hit last year's sales numbers +- some small percentage. Sales rate of 28.9/business day is identical to last year's 29 at this time in the month, but last year we had 16% more new listings.
A small sign of life, but still nowhere near any kind of sensible sales/list ratio. In the boom times this was around 75%, while in the 90s flat market it bounced between 50% and 60%.
In other news we bought a house.
217 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 217 of 217Good point! Sorry!
No problem - just don't let it happen again any time soon!
Note, Same sales but lower inventory indicate a strong season for halibut fishing....
Lower inventory because the market is going to "turn around", to use Introvert's favourite term, soon.
June is here, buying season is officially over.
I doubt that.... Does anyone here think that? I'm pretty sure the closest thing to a bull here is a halibut who likes basketball....
Right, not anyone here. But out there, there is still optimism.
I figured I was being optimistic ;-)
the closest thing to a bull here is a halibut who likes basketball....
Man, I have totally lost track of the metaphors on this site.
Totoro, I think that your friends will find Lower Mission has declined along with everywhere else, if not more. I think that the segment that has fared the best in Kelowna is houses under 425 in family neighbourhoods. Unfortunately, while a great neighbourhood, Lower Mission doesn't have a lot of homes in that price range and probably includes the highest neighbourhood "premium" in all of Kelowna.
There was a repeat sale there that closes next week. Sold for $60,000 above the 2010 purchase price, after $120,000 of (quality) improvements. It was priced reasonably and sold quickly with two offers so I think it is a good indicator of current prices, although, with the improvements it is hard to infer what the price drop really was. The improvements were well done, and I think they would actually return as close to full value as possible, so I would say it's around a 10% loss over three years.
Here's another example:
This house, 548 Knowles Road sold in 2011. Ask was 775 and if I recall it sold for 745 (plus tax).
Next door, 544 Knowles Road, a very similar house with different layout (4 bedrooms up, normally very desirable), didn't sell. Ask was also 775. Then the back yard was landscaped. Then dropped to 745. Then 715. Then the basement was finished, adding over 1000 sqft ($25,000). Eventually they accepted a tentative offer under 700 which fell through because the buyer couldn't sell their own house and the place is now rented instead.
Again, you have to make assumptions to infer a price drop, but assuming the deal had gone through and the basement and landscaping add value it was roughly a 8 or 9% drop over two years.
Another recent example from last month that is just closing:
286 Cosens Court is a very nice house in the family neighbourhood or North Glenmore. We were interested in viewing this back when it originally sold, but didn't get there in time:
It sold for 635 in 2007 and just sold again for 510 in April. Almost exactly 20% down.
Totoro, I would be interested to hear how your friends' sale goes.
I would expect that they are still slightly up if they bought in SE Kelowna in 2006, but prices were rising so quickly back then it probably depends on what time of year they bought, and also on exactly which area and price range.
A cheaper house in Hall Road area may have held its value better than a huge place further out near Gallagher's.
Sorry for the off topic posting, but I do think that Kelowna has some relevance to Victoria, as a warning flag at least.
It has a lot of the same qualities that are trumpeted about Victoria, especially as a retirement town. Although it lacks the government jobs, it probably has a much larger Alberta influence driving and holding prices up.
I don't know any more about the Victoria market than I've read on this blog, but it sounds to me like it is going to see similar small drops for a long time, which in my opinion do add up to a "crash" in the long run.
which in my opinion do add up to a "crash" in the long run.
That is if you follow home prices. Most people buy and live in a home for 10-15 years. A 10% "crash" is not the end of the world.
10% crash is not a big deal, unless you bought with less than 10% down and have to sell.
I don't think anyone here would categorize 10% as a crash.
I expect 25% from peak. I'll call it a fender-bender.
"Most people buy and live in a home for 10-15 years. A 10% "crash" is not the end of the world. "
I didn't say 10%. The last example I gave was 20% down over 6 years for a $125,000 loss plus transfer tax, realtor fees, closing costs, etc. All in all, a probably more than a 150k hit.
And as I also mentioned, that is for a house in a desirable neighbourhood. A lot of recreational property around here is more like 40-50% off.
Inventory and sales levels point to another year of slightly declining prices, and my guess is that they could continue to decline for at least another 2-3 years before staying flat or seeing very moderate increases for a long period. That's barring any interest rate shock, or even any adverse reaction to the media (which I think WILL have an effect when Vancouver finally sees substantial losses).
So that example that sold for 635k in 2007 and just sold again for 510k in April, could easily be worth less than 475k 10 years after the original purchase.
Maybe not the end of the world, but if you don't follow prices then I think your conclusion would be that sometime between when you bought and sold, the market crashed whether you were aware of it or not.
Whether you follow prices or not, many people will be quite surprised when they want to sell and find out the only way they can do so is at a large loss.
Also forgot the fact that I think the house was new back in 2007 so it was probably 635 plus tax, so more like a 25% decline already from the owner's total purchase price.
Marko, I assume you have access to mls listings for all BC so you're welcome to verify that if you want: 286 Cosens Court, Kelowna, mls# 10058024
If you had time to burn (which you probably don't) I would be curious to hear about any more repeat sales from the Okanagan. As already mentioned, it's too bad that there isn't a resource like this blog here.
As I said, I know Victoria isn't Kelowna, but I've seen some worse comparisons made here, and I think that there are certainly lessons to be learned from both markets (which is why I read this blog, as it does provide some insight into the BC market as a whole). If it can happen in the BC interior, I don't see why it can't happen in Victoria too.
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