Monday, January 26, 2015

Jan 26 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.



Jan 2015
Jan
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
165
265
342
New Listings286541786
1090
Active Listings302031213198
3489
Sales to New Listings
29%
30%34%
31%
Sales Projection--302342

Months of Inventory
10.2


Should be somewhat above last year's total given accelerating sales pace, but likely not a lot.  About 360-370 I'm guessing.

210 comments:

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Johnny-Dollar said...

Let's just say you're looking to buy a condo in the city core districts. And you want to get the best deal that you can.

I'd look at "leaky" condos and if they are under court order to sell - even better.

You can almost be guaranteed as being the only bidder on the property.

It's no longer a guess if the Credit Union or bank is going to lose money on this deal. It's how big of a loss they'll have.

For example there is one listed in Gorge Point at $269,900 with the cost of the repairs paid by the lender up to $53,000.

This is one that you would vultch.

This is where you put on your investor's hat. Where you may only want to pay 12 or 15 times its potential gross annual income. Instead of the 18 or 20 times that home owners pay.

You can sweeten the deal by getting financing with the same lender that is foreclosing. At least they will recover something over the years to come in interest charges.

CuriousCat said...

When I bought my house the listing indicated it was a 3 bed, 1 bath. In actuality, the 3rd "bedroom" was an area in the basement with ceiling tiles and a portion of cut carpet slapped on top of the concrete. There were plywood walls on three sides (no fourth wall, it was simply open to the rest of the unfinished basement). There was no closet, and sure, there was a large enough window in the basement, but it wasn't even where the carpet and ceiling were. The homeowners stuck a bed against the middle wall and a picture was taken and voila, 3rd bedroom. Riiiiiight. We were shocked this was even allowed. BUT on the flip side, we would have never even viewed this home if it hadn't said it had 3 bedrooms as we weren't even considering 2 bedroom homes. We ended up putting an offer on this 2 bed, 1 bath home on the spot simply because the basement was virtually untouched and most homes in the price range we were in had all kinds of crappy renos, low ceilings, funky suites or whatever else some mickey mouse homeowner thought was a good idea at the time.

However no way in hell could it have ever been considered a bedroom. No closet. It didn't even have a door, unless you consider the door at the bottom of the stairs, but then that would mean the entire basement was the bedroom??

caveat emptor said...

Port Renfrew= Western Communities ??? WTF

Anyone wanting to live in Victoria but also considering Port Renfrew might as well expand their search to Parksville. It's closer in driving time (not in actual distance).

freedom_2008 said...

Back from where we came from (Ontario), basement (mostly half underground) is never counted in the total finished sqft, regardless if it is finished or has any "bedroom"/bathroom.

Johnny-Dollar said...

The MLS® information is an advertisement. It should be a reasonable representation of the property, but it is not a fact sheet on the property. It's your responsibility to verify any information.

What is and what is not livable space, the building style, basement floor area, finished area, unfinished area can and often is different between real estate agents. The problem is that there is so much variety in homes that a simple tick box form can't encompass everything.

The MLS® is just suppose to get you to respond. Just like TV or Newspaper marketing why should the MLS® be held to any higher standard.

I'll read through all of the past listings on a property and check things with evalue BC or the strata plans or past appraisal reports because as I've learnt how inaccurate some of the information can be.

If you are serious about purchasing the home you could ask for a letter from the owner allowing you to see the house plans at City Hall or you can measure the property yourself.

Say you bought a home and found out it was 200 hundred square feet smaller than advertised. You won't win in court any damages. Because I'll guarantee you that none of you can tell the difference between a 2,100 and a 2,300 square foot home when you're walking through it. And that's what you bought. You bought what you saw not what you read.

Johnny-Dollar said...

Spatial geography in property values are not equally distant concentric rings radiating from the business core but are altered by driving times. One of the reasons why properties in View Royal near the Hospital are higher than Esquimalt.

Most of the time.

There are exceptions such as houses too close to the core. People generally want to leave the problems of the downtown core and get away from work to a more serene and safe place to lay their heads at night.

If you're in your twenties it's cool to live downtown but when you get married and have children safety and security is more important than having to take a 15 minute bus ride.

That's why Gordon Head houses are more expensive than houses around McDonalds on Pandora. That 15 minute drive is enough to separate you from the problems of work and the downtown.

Johnny-Dollar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
aston said...

Re: Desktop Appraisals... are they only applicable to SFHs, or condos and townhomes as well?

Johnny-Dollar said...

Desktop appraisals can be done on most properties assuming that there is some recent information available for the property. A current listing, expired, cancelled or sold listing in the last few years.

The assumption is that since the appraiser is not physically viewing the property, the listing information is reliable.

It certainly helps someone who is not knowledgeable about market values for that type of property and location.

The idea is to remove the subjectivity in the analysis. You get the facts without personal opinion. Then you can make your own decision without the information being spinned one way or the other.

Anonymous said...

Inventory will stay low till house prices rise quite a bit more. It's the property transfer tax stopping a 'lot' of working class people from putting their houses up for sale and moving up island. After expenses you can't really get anything better up island, esp if you have a suite here that covers all your bills and you can't do the same up island.

Also, most houses for sale in the core are old and need a lot of work to get them up to snuff, which is a huge liability with all the toxic materials/oil tanks etc. Once prices for tear down houses, including the year down and rebuild of a new house fall in line with affordability there won't be much movement also.

So Vic is kind of in a no mans land, old teardowns too expensive, house prices too low for tons of 55-75yr old blue collar workers to afford to move.

The only area you see people paying the 700k for a year down house is Oak Bay, and when they are done building a new house they are cutting it close if they wanted to flip... So you are looking at 1m to 1.5m for a small new house in the core no matter where you buy.

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