Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Happy April


Well maybe 734 people last month earn $100k in Victoria.   Or maybe it's a big debt orgy. 

Well it just got a little harder with CMHC raising rates by 15% (about $2700 extra for the average Victoria home), which we can expect to continue as the government fights to keep the housing market from boiling over.   Doubling the TFSA contribution limit plays into this as well by encouraging people to invest in things other than real estate.   Of course the tax on zero is still zero.  

A good month for the home market in Victoria though.  At 5 months of inventory we're solidly in balanced market overall, but as we know from Just Jack's finer analysis, this is only the average of a pretty hot core and a languishing westshore.   





That trend of improving market shows no sign of stopping yet.


Sales up 22% YtD over last year.  Even though I guessed the highest it looks like I was far too pessimistic in my yearly sales forecast.  

Monday, March 23, 2015

March 23 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.



March 2015
March
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales132
307
491
575
New Listings3967071040
1286
Active Listings356236333693
4050
Sales to New Listings
33%
43%47%
45%
Sales Projection--675720

Months of Inventory
7.0


Last time we had over 700 sales in march was 5 years ago at 789.  Before that it was 2007 (833 sales).   So not a hot market yet (that would be between 800 and 900 sales with an inventory of half of what we have now) but decent.  Enough to draw the bulls out of the woodwork at least.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

March 16 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


March 2015
March
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales132
307


575
New Listings396707

1286
Active Listings35623633

4050
Sales to New Listings
33%
43%

45%
Sales Projection--675


Months of Inventory
7.0


More listings than last year, but even more sales.  Last year this week we had only a 39% sales/list ratio.   

Monday, March 9, 2015

March 9th Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


March 2015
March
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales132



575
New Listings396


1286
Active Listings3562


4050
Sales to New Listings
33%



45%
Sales Projection--



Months of Inventory
7.0


This week last year we also had exactly 132 sales.   There are 10% more new listings coming online this year though so the months of declining inventory might be limited.  

Monday, March 2, 2015

February 2015 Monthly Stats

Pretty strong February.  Sales up 31%, inventory down 8%.   The trend towards improving market continues at a surprisingly steady clip, with prices matching inflation for the last year and a half.   


SFH prices basically dead flat from last year.   If we see another strong month though this graph will jump.


Another way to visualize the change in the market since 2013 is to look at the change in inventory from the same month the year before.


Only sign of anything different is an increase in new listings over last year.  Haven't seen that since last May.  With more chatter of a better market, it might lure some potential sellers out of the woodwork this spring.



Monday, February 23, 2015

Feb 23 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.



Feb 2015
Feb
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales118
226
396
412
New Listings352587877
1064
Active Listings332434013448
3770
Sales to New Listings
34%
39%45%
39%
Sales Projection--452528

Months of Inventory
9.1


Strong week so expect over 500 sales for the month.  If this week matches last we could hit almost 570 sales which would be the highest since 2010.  

Monday, February 16, 2015

Feb 16 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Feb 2015
Feb
 2014
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales118
226


412
New Listings352587

1064
Active Listings33243401

3770
Sales to New Listings
34%
39%

39%
Sales Projection--452


Months of Inventory
9.1


Relatively strong first two weeks with sales pace about 10% higher than last year.   Those interest rates might be luring a few buyers out of the woodwork.