Monday, December 15, 2014

Dec 15 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Dec 2014
Dec
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales112
198


355
New Listings148271

437
Active Listings34553406

3554
Sales to New Listings
76%
73%

81%
Sales Projection--455


Months of Inventory
10


We won't be hitting the estimate as sales will drop off significantly at the tail end of the month.    Likely closer to 400.    Some signs of a slowdown with the Teranet composite down 0.3% in November with many cities showing a decline, including yours truly.  CMHC also continues to tinker, hiking fees to insure mortgage backed securities by up to 200%.

Update:  A while back there was some chatter about the appreciation rates of condos and single family homes.   I would think that since "they ain't making any more land", the appreciation rate for condos would lag that of SFHs.   So I took a simplistic look at the appreciation rates for both over all 5 year periods over the last 25 odd years and here's the result.


The rates are closer than I thought, but there definitely is a difference between the two.   Average 5 year appreciation is 38% for SFHs, and 32% for condos (or ~1% a year).   I would suspect that a re-sale based index would show a somewhat wider difference.
The condo market is also a bit more volatile, with a range from a 20% drop over 5 years to a 128% increase, while SFHs have ranged from a drop of only 7% to an increase of 109%.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Nov 25 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Nov 2014
Nov
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales137
234
357
412
New Listings195366516
698
Active Listings372236853639
4017
Sales to New Listings
70%
64%69%
59%
Sales Projection--468476

Months of Inventory
9.8



Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Nov 10 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Nov 2014
Nov
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales137



412
New Listings195


698
Active Listings3722


4017
Sales to New Listings
70%



59%
Sales Projection--



Months of Inventory
9.8


Pretty comparable sales to this week last year but with somewhat lower inventory and fewer new listings coming online.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Oct 20 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Oct 2014Oct
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
230
356
512
New Listings178393556
979
Active Listings410040603988
4322
Sales to New Listings
47%
59%64%
52%
Sales Projection--661630

Months of Inventory
8.4


There has been some discussion about this piece of "analysis" by a mortgage broker.  His theory is that when interest rates go up, so do prices.  Apparently in the last 30 years, increasing mortgage rates lead to increasing prices 62% of the time 2 months later.  Never mind that the two month lag is never justified (as Just Jack said, a 3 month rate hold would blow that out of the water).  The obvious gaping hole in this theory is that prices have been increasing for most of that 30 year period, so it's not at all surprising that 62% of the months they went up.  If someone were to care to evaluate the entire period they would probably find more than 62% of months that showed increasing prices.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Oct 14 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Oct 2014Oct
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales83
230


512
New Listings178393

979
Active Listings41004060

4322
Sales to New Listings
47%
59%

52%
Sales Projection--661


Months of Inventory
8.4



Per Marko's request.  We're still (almost) the weakest market in the country for the past 7 years.  Edged out Edmonton in the last couple months but I suspect when September numbers are out we will be in last place.


Saturday, October 11, 2014

What it cost to run our house.

In case anyone is wondering what it costs to run a pretty typical house, here is ours for last year:

Gordon head, 1970s build, ~2100sqft.   2 adults 1 child upstairs, 1 adult in suite downstairs.


Month Hydro Gas  Water/Sewer /Garbage Property Tax Insurance
January  $172.67  $86.25  $200.91
February  $164.64  $104.95
March  $164.64  $78.70
April  $96.83  $78.29
May  $96.83  $65.17
June  $57.49  $59.59  $222.13
July  $57.49  $45.90  $2,897.88  $957.00
August  $57.69  $79.23
September  $57.69  $70.33
October  $110.68  $50.91  $263.32
November  $110.68  $75.68
December  $172.67  $86.47
 Total Utilities   $2,888.00
 Total   $6,743.00

Heating is a heat pump with gas backup and baseboards downstairs.  Gas for hot water and 2 fireplaces (rarely used).   

So even without factoring the mortgage in, it costs about $560/month to keep the place operating.   Adding in mortgage interest, that goes to $1450/month.    Nothing big on maintenance, but the new gutters and some random Home Depot excursions probably added up to another $100/month.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Sept 29 Market Update

MLS numbers update courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.


Sept 2014Sept
 2013
Wk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4
Unconditional Sales105
232
362511
487
New Listings3255808101034
1106
Active Listings4293431042804261
4547
Sales to New Listings
32%
40%45%49%
44%
Sales Projection462510530562
Months of Inventory
9.3



Hey it's an update.  By the way thanks Dasmo for posting the article about the true cost of commuting a few weeks ago.  That lead me to discover Mr. Money Moustache and I've been devouring that blog from start to finish ever since.   Next project: early retirement / financial independence.
Amazing how I didn't stumble across this blog before, given that I suspect there are quite a few commenters here that follow this philosophy.  I'm particularly interested in how realistic the early retirement concept is in an expensive city like Victoria.  Unlike Mr. Money Moustache, our house didn't cost $200,000, we're not retired before having kids (and thus childcare), and most everything is more money in Canada than in the US.  However everyone can still use a good punch in the face as far as spending is concerned.
Bonus:  an entirely new set of spreadsheets to create, and there's nothing like a good spreadsheet to get the adrenaline going.