Wise words from Roger: Folks I want to prepare you for the VREB numbers to be released later this week. Last month the average price went up to 568K from 542K and the median price stayed flat at 489K. Lots of readers on this blog were discouraged with the average price jump and discounted the flat median price. You need to look at price trends to see what is going to happen.
When the May numbers are released I believe the average price will be slightly lower at 560K and the median will remain around 489K. This is significant for patient trend watchers.
If you have been following the stats on Needs Analysis you will have seen a sharp increase in the 3 month rolling average of Greater Vitoria average and median prices. The 6 month averages have been much more gradual. If my May predictions are correct you will see a drop in the 3 month rolling average and a flattening of the 6 month averages. We will be at the market peak and heading into the summer sales season with rising inventory and fewer sales (see extrapolated graphs for details).
I know many people want a crash now but it won't happen until the media wakes up and smells the coffee. Many agents are already awake, sipping coffee and recommending price reductions. By the fall our old friend Ken Lowball will be back in town.
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