Tuesday, June 12, 2007

This time it is different

Everyone wants to be here. Or apparently not. Of Canada's 12 major cities, Victoria humps the trend and leads the way: DOWN. Read more here.

Maybe the bears are multiplying?


vg said...


Are you suggesting the breeding of more bears with that naturistic pic ? ;)

vg said...

oops...didn't see your line under the pic, you beat me to it. :)

I see Seattle is starting to cool,maybe this is the north west event that needs to start the wake up call to affordability reality.

Anonymous said...

This bear has had her cub. It is someone else's turn. :) HHV?

I posted the Stats Can article that was in today's Times-Colonist on the bull site I go on and where everyone was hot and heavy to blast me just a couple of months ago I got practically no bites from this one.

Only one person posted saying that "many homeowners are able to arrange their amortization to make their payments fit."

I think I may have hit this one too close to their bow.


greg said...

I read an interesting post over on paper money where the author tracked the behaviour of the US housing downturn now against the previous crash (80s-90s) - and so far this crash is tracking similarly to the previous one.

Last time, there were around 54 consecutive months of year over year declines, looking at a basket of the 10 top metropolitan areas in the US. Most interestingly, the bulk of the declines took place between the 9th and 18th months of this period - which the author figured is around the time frame the current US crash is entering now...

So I guess if big drops are beginning now in the US, how much longer can Canada avoid entering the same cycle?

Bears multiplying indeed!

vg said...

Its sure interesting to read these US blogs where the anecdotal stories are a plenty like on Ben Jones's blog and reality is widespread.

I know of a couple who just had to make their first mortgage payment on the new place and since it was 250% above what their rent was apparently the reality of seeing the cash disappear from the bank account was not a pleasant experience. I can only imagine how many more are going thru this and won't be able to hold the fort when things go south.

Sam said...

Where do these people come from who will pay 250% of their former rent to own?

Anonymous said...

Article in today's Times-Colonist may explain what some FTBs are doing to buy. Good gracious.



vg said...

I would far rather rent my own self contained suite rather than risk the inevitable fact that these rosy new relationships will falter and things get ugly,especially when large money is involved. I know of a couple of these in the past and they are not a pretty situation when the fallout hits or disagreements in reno costs etc.
It is differenet if it is mom and dad living in the suite or some close family member but friends and new aqauintances is playing with a bonfire.

The media and RE bizz is just using another angle for us to just accept over valued prices are here to stay and that prices will never ever go down,what a joke.

Anonymous said...

Hey, vg. Are you sure? You don't want to buy a house with me - a total stranger.

Fine, I'll walk out of my office and ask the first person I see on the street.

Actually, the first person I'll see will be the homeless guy who sits outside the door. I'm sure he'll say yes.

I bet the mortgage broker will be throwing money at us to get us in on this new way to buy a house.


Anonymous said...

"I bet the mortgage broker will be throwing money at us to get us in on this new way to buy a house."

Hence the continuing problem. Irresponsible lenders who don't hold the mortgage, aided and abetted by an irresponsible central bank and CMHC, all leading everyone down the rosy path to ruin.


House Frau said...

There was also an article in the Globe about parents giving their kids the house they grew up in and the partents moving into the basement. So I am really going to live in the basement while my kids are in "My House" upstairs. I also have 4 kids. Maybe they could all live togehter with their families and my husband and I could then live in the basement. That could work. They article went on to say that homes in Europe are passed down from generation to generation. Yeah castles and 15 bedroom mansions but not 4 bedroom homes with elderly parents living in the basement.

I don't want to give my kids my house. Now they are telling us we have to move into the basement? Maybe next it will be "Give your kids your House" and move into a homeless shelter. (My kids are still little but if house prices keep going up - 10 years from now I better start watching my back).

Anonymous said...

So here is what I have been reading.

CBC NEWS. Take out a 2nd mortgage (or if you are rich enough just buy your kdis a house so they can get on the property ladder). Start now - even though they might be 2 years old it is never too late to start.

Article Globe and Mail - If you can't afford to buy a house for your kids just give em yours and move into the basement. Article Globe and Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070608.wxlparenthome08/BNStory/lifeHouseHome/home

TODAY'S ARTICLE TIMES COLONIST: If your horrible parents are too selfish to buy you your own house (always thinking about their damn retirement) and worse - won't give you their house and move into the basement then - Buy a house with someone who is a friend or stranger. Then you can get on the property ladder.

It is so easy!

vg said...

mohican just posted motgage rates up again at RBC.
2001 rates at 2007 prices, yep,the party will never end folks, just keep buying and don't forget any new friends you meet incase they want the basement suite.

"The Royal Bank of Canada said Wednesday it is raising posted rates by between 0.05 and 0.20 percentage point, depending on the term. Effective Thursday, the five-year closed rate goes up 0.15 point to 7.44 per cent."

Anonymous said...

Someone just posted at the bull site I'm on mentioning the TC article and saying that they co-own a house with some friends. The kids get a nice big yard and the adults were able to get a lovely house for under $250,000 each. They each get their own floor.

I told them good luck with that.

I'm bruising my forehead with all the smacking of it I'm doing lately.


Anonymous said...

Interesting article on CNN Money how even with the downturn in the US housing is becoming still less affordable with interest rates going up etc. Please read it. Of course it can't happen here.


vg said...

BMO just upped their rates as expected,I'm sure we'll see the rest follow suit.

Isn't it funny how all the so called experts only a short month or two ago were calling for lowering of interst rates ? No way they were going up, it will kill the economy they said,it will never happen.... yeah right. I wonder how many home buyers the past year were sucked into that line from their agent and banker ? more than few I could imagine....reeling in the sheep.

vg said...

Check out this interview with TD Waterhouse on BNNTV.

A 1% increase on a $300,000 mortgage over 5 years equals $23,000 = $383 per month. Not many new buyers can absorb that.

Scroll down to this segment:

11:11 AM ET
Market Morning with Lisa Oake
Broad Impact of Higher Interest Rates
Kathryn Del Greco, invetment advisor, TD Waterhouse


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