Just doing some blog-related research today. Here's what I've come across:
Dow 14,000: I'm skipping the party
Big threats are being ignored as investors celebrate the stock market's latest milestone. We haven't seen such arrogance since the heady days of 1999 and 2000.
it was logical to conclude that many of these [subprime] mortgages would be defaulted on, creating ramifications throughout the financing and economic food chain.
Canadians go on a shopping spree in May; Dollar rises to 30 year high in July
Sales advanced in all retail sectors in May except in the furniture, home furnishings and electronics stores sector. Retailers in this sector saw sales decline 0.8 per cent, following six consecutive monthly gains.
I guess we're not buying stuff for our new homes anymore then right?
"Perhaps most notably, the gains are fanning out from Alberta, with almost all provinces posting impressive growth. This clearly puts additional Bank of Canada tightening in play, above and beyond a second quarter-point rate hike in September."
Inflation is not, I repeat, NOT, contained to the West, as many people like to argue. Nope. Loose monetary lending policies are all pervasive and even where incomes and RE prices aren't going crazy, high ratio lending is driving consumer trends skyward.
Both the TSX and the Dow took MASSIVE hits today: TSX down 400+ points
The TSX was up 13 per cent year-to-date at the start of this week.
Biggest single day drop in 3 years. Inflation concerns are the cause. Down over 500 points this two-day-old week. Is it strange that this is happening in July? Usually this kind of thing happens when people are at work trading, like in October.
"And anybody that cannot take this sort of thing should not be in the markets."
Does the same rule apply to homeowners?
Jitters over the subprime mortgage sector were compounded after Countrywide Financial Corp. — the largest U.S. mortgage lender — said its profits fell sharply as mortgage banking earnings tumbled. The company also cut its profit outlook amid rising mortgage delinquencies.
Despite the WARNING SIGNS, US bulls call for 7%+ gains in the Dow before year is out
"Anybody who argues with momentum, until the momentum becomes irrational, is going to get slaughtered," said A.G. Edwards market strategist Al Goldman on CNBC this week.
Leave it to BubbleVision to come up with Sh$t like this. Nope, no irrationality in this market, nothing to see here, keep moving. Can anyone remember a time in recent history when both the RE markets and the Stock markets have gone completely bullish and irrational together like today?
the market could be vulnerable to a "melt-up" that could shoot the indexes substantially higher in the next few weeks. And there's little to support stocks if a melt-up gives way to selling. The last big melt-ups were in 1987 and 1999, when the Dow moved from 10,000 to 11,000 in just 23 days. Early in 2000, the market tipped started [sic] a slide into the worst bear market in generations.
Bulls, of course, will argue: "this time it's different." I should disclose that two mutual funds that I own, both that regularly generate 20% plus rates of return yearly, are in the midst of equity sell-offs and are aiming for 50% cash holdings during the upcoming storm they foresee happening.
My thoughts on the dollar: sure our dollar seems strong, but it's measured against an increasingly weak US benchmark. Talk to someone buying Euros or Pounds and they'll tell you just how strong our dollar really is.
Inflation is crazy right now. I know, I know, look at the CPI you'll say, it doesn't lie. Nope. You're right. It doesn't lie. It just doesn't count a lot of the things Canadians are spending money on right now. Especially things that are subject to irrational market forces: like food; especially fresh food. My food bill this year is almost 30% higher than last year. And it isn't because I'm getting fat. It's because food is more expensive.
Our gas consumption is down. We drive less than ever. But our gas bill is roughly the same as last year because gas jumped over that psychological benchmark of $1/L and will likely not drop below it again anytime soon.
Red sky at night, sailor's delight. Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning... am I the only one seeing red at economic dawn these days?