The value of all property transactions through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) hit a new record of over $4.1 billion in 2007, up from $3.3 billion in 2006. The value of single family home sales was over $2.5 billion while the value of condominium sales was over $756 million. Victoria Real Estate Board President Tony Joe noted that both sales and prices for all major property types increased last year. "Last year was another exceptional year for the local real estate market. The total number of sales increased over 12 per cent while the overall average price for single family homes rose 8.5 per cent; the average for condominiums rose over 11 per cent and the average for townhomes rose 10.5 per cent," said Joe.Before we see any changes, something is going to have to give. Year over year, we've seen listings increase, but we've also seen sales increase. What will we see over the next few weeks and months? Will listings climb while sales slide? Will listings decline and prices increase with increased sales? If this trend continues, that "soft landing" that many economists have predicted will likely be the case. An 8.5% increase will just come back down to normal 5-6% gain, or slightly less.
Meantime, the sale of 14 single family homes in Greater Victoria over $1 million pushed the average price to a new record high of $624,450 last month; the median price, however, was considerably lower at $536,000. "It’s always important to bear in mind that the average price in a given month can often be significantly affected by the sale of high-priced homes," noted Joe. The six-month average for single family homes in December was $581,419.
The average price of all condominiums sold in December was $332,793; the average for the last six months was $319,980. The median was again lower at $292,900. The average price for townhomes sold last month was $445,960; the average for the last six-months was $415,648. The median price was $387,900.
There were 408 MLS® sales last month, up from 385 sales in December of last year. There were 623 sales in November. Sales last month included 202 single family homes, 120 condominiums, 46 townhomes and 8 manufactured homes.There were 2,799 properties listed for sale on the MLS® system at the end of last month, up from the 2,650 properties in the same month a year ago.
My YOY predictions, not to mention my month-month ones too, were completely out of whack. I over-estimated YOY SFH gains by 1.5%-2.5% and completely missed the boat on MOM; I guess some people got some high priced homes for Christmas this year.
If you could look into a crystal ball and see that a crash is NOT coming, but a flat period of 5-7 years is, would you think about buying in the next couple of months?
Greg has particularly good analysis on these numbers.