Friday, February 1, 2008

January VREB stats

Link

Sales of homes and other properties in the Greater Victoria area got off to a solid start in the first month of 2008. There were 464 sales through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, up from the 442 sales in the same month a year ago. There were 408 sales in December. Meantime, the total number of properties available for sale rose to 3,027 - a 14 per cent increase over January of last year.

Victoria Real Estate Board President, Tony Joe, says the market remains very healthy and the strong sales and increase in inventory represent good news for sellers and buyers. "There continues to be strong demand for homes that are realistically priced and the increase in the number of properties available for sale means more choice for buyers," said Joe. Joe noted that nearly 29 per cent of single family homes sold for less than $450,000 last month while nearly 37 per cent of all condominiums sold for under $275,000 in January.

Joe added that 19 sales of over $1 million had an upward impact on the average price of single family homes, "The average price of single family homes sold in January in Greater Victoria was $606,449 but it is important to note that the median price was considerably lower at $530,200." The six-month average for single family homes was $586,338. The average price of all condominiums sold in January was $349,045; the average for the last six months was $326,904. The median was again lower at $304,450. The average price of all townhomes sold last month was $423,774; the six month average was $419,926. The median price was $392,950.

MLS® sales last month included 249 single family homes, 125 condominiums, 43 townhomes and 16 manufactured homes.
I'll let comments reign supreme on this post.

87 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good to see inventory up and average and median prices down from last month.

Metaldwarf said...

not quite beers in the Bengal but maybe a Slurpy at 7-11?

Aleks said...

Isn't inventory always up MOM this time of year?

hhv said...

This is no different than any other month IMHO, listings are up this month YOY, but so they were in Jan 2007 as well. Same story different year.

greg said...

hhv -

not exactly the same story - if you look at the graph at the VREB site, you can see inventory is already as high as it was last summer. In fact, it is far higher than either of the previous two January stats. Assuming listings continue apace during the spring, it would take a blistering pace of sales to cut the inventory down to a point where some sellers are not sitting month after month without action.

I know if your market segment is at the lower price point, as I suppose yours (and mine) is, it can be frustrating as that part of the market is still selling fastest, but 7+ months of condo inventory and 10+ months of million dollar inventory point to a general situation where affordability is impacting who and what sells - ie, people think their expensive properties are worth more than buyers can afford to pay.

You would need to see 800+ sales minimum to put things back on track for matching last year's pace. Considering the higher prices this year, and the tougher financing situation, plus the general financial uneasiness and the hit many people's stock portfolios have been taking - I just don't see it happening, which sets things up for a nice ugly finish in the fall.

Bubble 'n Fizz(le) said...

Check out Stupid price of the month. The market is hot!.

roger said...

Victoria Stats for January - Analysis Update

Dec. 2007 SFH sales in Greater Victoria - 187
Jan. 2007 SFH sales in Greater Victoria - 222
Jan. 2008 SFH sales in GV - 228 UP 3% YOY

December Average Price GV - 624K
January Average Price GV - 606K - DOWN

December Median Price GV - 536K
January Median Price GV - 530K - DOWN

December 2007 Active Listings - 2800
January 2007 Active Listings - 2650
January 2008 Active Listings - 3027 - UP 14% YOY

December 2007 New Listings - 495
January 2007 New Listings - 1170
January 2008 New Listings - 1395 - UP 12% YOY

In January 2008 there were 19 SFH sales over $1M. Today there are 152 houses over $1M on the market.

Hmmm... So there were 6 more house sales in Jan 08 than Jan 07. Inventory is way up (14%) from last year and more folks listed this January than last year at this time (12%). Median and average prices fell even with 19 sales over $1M.

Comments anyone??

Anonymous said...

Sadly market seems to be still pretty strong. Maybe next year!

Scott said...

Hi to all Iam making this comment not as a slag but totally agreeing with this blog. The thing about these sky high prices is that they are not in real money. Canadian and USD are not real. Canada and the US have been in a state of monetary inflation for over 10 years. Wages are stuck at the "core inflation rate at roughly 2% and the real inflation rate is (monetary inflation rate) is between 10-15% per annul. This is leading to the biggest gap in wealth distribution ever. The home owners are laughing all the way to the bank and the renters have become priced out of the market for ever. In Victoria's case the boomers from the other parts of the country are moving here on mass and buying. Unless you where fortunate to buy in 10+ years ago it is almost impossible. The only spot on the west coast with up side and low cost going in is Crofton BC. Read about the mill and all there problems and then go for a visit. The day the mill shuts down prices will go through the roof. You can still buy a nice house their for less than 260k and put a suite in and make the payments even with min down. This is not spam I am an agent but do recommend doing your own due diligence. Roger has commented on my blog a few time and I know first hand how hard it is to get going. I do not have any listing in Crofton but if I had the spare money I would be buying their now.

Cheers
Scott

Anonymous said...

No need to buy in Crofton. Victoria's real estate market will crash soon enough (just look at the rest of THE PLANET).

Save for a down payment, have a little patience, and remember what goes up must come down.

hhv said...

"In Victoria's case the boomers from the other parts of the country are moving here on mass and buying."

There is no data published anywhere that supports this myth.

xxx said...

my own realtor said that outside buyers have dropped off.

vg said...

High inventory in January is exactly what we want to see,by the time spring comes we may well be into the 4000 range then the fun really begins.

Recession talk hasn't gone away,US job numbers sucked,US GDP slowing,construction spending down, this is all going to effect us eventually. Someone big in the RE business here is eventually going to be squeezed by the credit crunch.

As Allen Angell said," I am trying to do you a favor".

vg said...

I also like the VREB change of tone from "red hot market" type stuff to " be priced realistically" in order to get a sale. Sounds like the tide is turning.

vg said...

From CTV's Olsen report:



Real Estate: Where now?


Can the lower mainland's red-hot real estate market keep heating up?

Some experts say the increases we've been seeing just aren't sustainable and they've got a warning for speculators.


Catherine Stofer wants to own her own condo in Vancouver. But it's been tough.


"I earn a good living, that's the frustrating part. Here it is at the age I'm at if I amortize, I'll be in my grave before I pay it off," she complains.


As prices have been rising, units have been getting smaller, in an effort to keep first time buyers able to buy something.


At 670 square feet the unit Stofer is looking at is considered a larger unit


"Some of the dens we've seen basically couldn't accommodate a computer," she notes.


"I'd say we are somewhere near the top of the cycle," predicts UBC real estate professor Tsur Somerville. He says the numbers tell the story. Real estate prices in Greater Vancouver have been rising 15 percent per year on average for the last four years.

Historically, you'd expect six percent annual increases and we are two and half times that.


"The risk you are facing now is that you have a market that is near a peak. You have employment in major construction projects that is going to tail off. You've got

negative news in terms of Canada's trading partner," calculates Somerville.


And since real estate prices have fallen in the US, will local or foreign investors pull their money out of this market to invest down south where our dollar buys more. What would happen if they did?


"If they sell and people notice prices are softening, are they going to race to sell: and is that going to cause a downturn particularly in the condo market? There are a lot of different ways this could play out and because we haven't had a lot of experience in that we really don't know the way this plays out," says Somerville.


Professor Somerville says if you are buying a place to live in long-term timing the market isn't critical. But speculators face a far riskier market today.


"The person who has over extended himself, is the person most at risk," he concludes.


Catherine just wants a place to call home.


"Just keep trying, there has got to be something out there," she muses.


In all markets there is a psychological aspect. People believe that what happened last year will happen this year. If people believe prices will keep going up, then prices rise faster than the economy that supports them. But remember, expectations can also change quickly and that will affect the market too.

With a report from CTV British Columbia's Chris Olsen

vg said...

Will Vancouver's red hot real estate market cool?


Updated: Mon Jan. 28 2008 12:55:48

bc.ctv.ca

Real Estate Forecast


This week we're beginning a five part series on real estate and what's putting pressure on owners and buyers alike.


I think there is an assumption that real estate prices always go up. But that's not always the case. In the US, the sub prime mortgage crisis has slashed prices in many desirable communities as a flood of homes come onto the market.


In just the last three months in California, 32,000 ended up in foreclosure 82,000 more have gone into default on their mortgages; an early indicator of possible foreclosure. In Phoenix 56,000 homes are for sale, many of them foreclosures, 10 times as many as three years ago. And that can't help but effect prices. In Fort Myers Florida, foreclosures have climbed 500 percent in one year while house prices have fallen by 30 percent in two years.


I'm not saying that is our future -- but it was only two years ago when there were stories in the US of real estate booming, prices out of reach for many people, and today, if you hadn't bought then you have a lot to choose from.


While we don't have a sub prime risk here, if the US slips into recession that will effect our economy and there are a number of other factors that could come into play.


Like what if our investors start taking their money to the US to cash-in on the bargains there?

roger said...

Listings keep on coming. This hotsheet site gives all listings in the last 24 hours. On Friday evening there were 95 new listings which is the highest I have seen in a long time. I bet when the TC publishes the latest stats, announcing we have dropped below the peak, there will be a rush for the exits.

Has anyone seen the January stats reported on TV??

Geoffrey said...

I hope people in Victoria watch the CTV News. Probably not as they can't afford cable on account of saving $$ for the mortgage. Kudos for those 19 poor souls who bought houses in Victoria over $1m in January. We hope they will sleep well at night. It is true though that so called investors/speculators will peel off from here and park their $$ in the depressed US (and might I sunshiny) markets. I have friends from Calgary who already have bought (and recently sold their Victoria condo) a 2500 sg foot SFH with an in-ground pool in Scottsdale, AZ for $225K. What a deal.

greg said...

Beginning of the Housing Bear Market:

You will see a listing swell, as savvy sellers try to beat their neighbours to the last top dollars.

With all the negative economic news out there, you have to think there is some element of that showing up in how early and how many listings there were in January compared to recent years.

Anonymous said...

People at my kids school have just moved here from Toronto. He is self employed like most of the parents in the kids class.

They had a lovely house a bit outside of Toronto - $900,000. Spacious, lovely finishings, nice kitchen. For the same quality, size they are going to have to pay over $1.2 million here. They have been looking like crazy. Sure they can find homes for $800,000 but the quality, size, lot size is not even close. They are renting but can only have the house for a limited time.

They have decided to move to White Rock. I have heard more talk at the school about people leaving. These are people that are not buying their first homes but people with equity and they can't find anything with quality.

Another family wanted to build. With building at $200 sq. ft. to $250 for a nice house and lots and tear downs going for huge prices, they have given up.

First I thought commodities were going down. However I have been told that it is the labour costs that are so expensive. I wonder if labour costs will go down.

I also wonder if people just haven't accepted the high prices here and quality of homes as normal and have stopped questioning what they are paying for.

olives said...

The cost of labour will come down when the demand for labour does. If condo projects keep being reduced in size and/or cancelled, the demand will obviously drop at some point

Anonymous said...

I hope so. If the prices do not come down and people want to move here they will just have to accept that they will not be able to afford the size and quality of house they had before. Their standard of living will decline as more money will have to be pumped into a mortgage.

A RE agent was at a meeting and the VREB foresees the following. Victoria center will be full of rich retirees and young hipster people living in small but expensive condos. The surrounding areas ie. Oak Bay, Hillside, Uplands, 10 mile point etc. will also turn into areas for yes - I will say it again - rich retirees and young families with loads of money. The private schools are full of these people.

Most of us will have to settle living way out - Highlands, Langford, and even further. We will do our shopping at the lovely big box stores out there. Why shop in nice little shops when you can do one stop shopping in Big Box Stores. The VREB actually thinks this is a good thing. Many people have 1 hr commutes in other North American cities and it will happen here and we will have to live with it. We all know people who choose to leave way out of Victoria ie. Colwood, Metchosin because they choose to live there. In the future there will be no choice. Maybe they will build large freeways so we can get in.

If things continue the way they are you can see where I am going with this. The whole flavor of Victoria will be lost. This is the reason we moved here. Not to live way out in the boonies and have 1 hour commutes in. No be strapped by a huge mortgage to have a nice house.

At the VREB meeting they said the downtown will be even full of more exclusive stores for the wealthy.

Lets hope things settle down. I look forward to your comments.

roger said...

anon said

People at my kids school have just moved here from Toronto. He is self employed like most of the parents in the kids class.

I am curious. What do these self-employed new arrivals do for a living?

Anonymous said...

Lets see. I will do just one class - there are two classes for each grade.

One family owns internet based company. Came from abroad.

Ex-Investment Banker for large bank in the US - now consultant (Victoria Native).

Investment Banker - runs own book in US and commutes from US

Owns foreign exchange company in Victoria, Alberta and down east

Owns Nursing homes all over U.S. and various business in Canada-

Hubby works in middle east - family lives here

Lawyers for government

Geologists for government

owns IT company

owns car companies, bank and insurance company

IT people for government

Moved from US - does not have to work but may open up a restaurant. Owned successful restaurant in US

Investment Banker - works for well known company moved from Vancouver (actually another Victoria native). Wanted slower pace for health reasons.

Doctor

Owns small companies and strip malls all over Canada and now US

works for school

owns successful fishing company and processing plant. Wife is native Victoria.

From Korea - does not work - husband stays in Korea. Wants child to have Canadian Education.

Owns a airline company that takes special pictures in Canada and U.S. Very complicated - I don't understand it.

This is just one class. Only 3 people are from Victoria. 2 left and came back for family and health reasons. Most are from Vancouver, Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, England. Australia, and U.S.

In other classes briefly we have Professionals Opera singers, Artists and graphic Design company, one family owns satellite company. Many own IT companies or work for themselves in the IT Industry. One family owns a Japanese tourist company. Another (who was brought up in Victoria) owns 3 well known restaurants, 2 families own a law firm. Authors! Another foreign exchange company. Some people retired young and are doing consulting on the side. One family owns pubs in Calgary but live here.

One thing is rather interesting to note many of these self-employed people are directly linked to the US.

Nick said...

Victoria center will be full of rich retirees and young hipster people living in small but expensive condos. The surrounding areas ie. Oak Bay, Hillside, Uplands, 10 mile point etc. will also turn into areas for yes - I will say it again - rich retirees and young families with loads of money. The private schools are full of these people.


In terms of people who own as opposed to rent, Victoria is already therealready there

roger said...

Median and average SFH prices drop; listings and inventory rise and the TC publishes an article titled:
Condominium market stays strong

The author, Carla Wilson, goes into considerable detail about Bear Mountain's Web site traffic and interest by American buyers. So now the Times-Colonist is dwelling on Web site hits when reporting monthly sales stats for Victoria.

Greater Victoria's condominium market stayed strong last month with 125 sales through the Multiple Listing Service.

The article did not mention that there are over 900 condos presently listed on MLS and countless more pre-sales being offered by developers.

Frankly, this article confirmed once again that the TC does not research market conditions but only reprints the news releases from VREB and local developers. This is not surprising - they do not want to offend their advertisers.

vg said...

"At the VREB meeting they said the downtown will be even full of more exclusive stores for the wealthy."

They can't even keep business's going on Government St in the heart of tourist/high end condo area because the cost per square foot is insane.

I can't see the wealthy dodging crack heads and vagrants to shop at these high end stores either. Another pipe dream of the VREB who can't see reality.

Any further increase in density here is going to turn people off to live here,just driving anywhere in the daytime no matter what time is a pain in the ass versus even 5 years ago. Thats why we will move out to Central Sannich area when the time comes,the congestion and whacko factor has really changed very fast.


Listening to Jim Dines this morning predicting a world real estate crash coming on the heels of the US crash,he has called many major moves over the the last 8 years that I have listened to him.

Anonymous said...

Just thought. A few families own building companies.

In the class mentioned above - one of the dad's is a scientist working with special vaccines.

vg said...

"The author, Carla Wilson, goes into considerable detail about Bear Mountain's Web site traffic and interest by American buyers. So now the Times-Colonist is dwelling on Web site hits when reporting monthly sales stats for Victoria."


roger,

why are we not suprised,muzzle the negatives at all cost,in a couple of months they will have no choice.


Web site traffic from Americans ? what crap,just cause they browse translates to buyers ? they were probably laughing their heads off at the 500sq ft condos for $400,000 then going to the Phoenix and Florida sites where they are twice the size for one third of the price. Desperate measures for desperate times.

roger said...

VG,

I sent Carla Wilson of the TC an email this morning with the list of bear blogs for Victoria.

You never know. Perhaps she might drop by and consider another viewpoint. Maybe she might even jump into the discussion.

Anonymous said...

Carla Wilson must own a few pre-sales. Or her hubby is a developer. And she says that American traffic is increasing (giving the impression that Americans are coming here physically)..but only later says that she refers to the 73 hits for the month at the Bear Mountain web site. What fools! What desperation. I, for one won't be reading the TC, as all it is a mouthpiece for the RE industry. And, the 73 hits per month. What a joke. Man, that's pathetic. Any mickey mouse site gets 100's hits per day. These people are from the Twilight zone.. and to say they are hits from AZ, how you can validate that. What if the person is VPNing through their corporate network? The company's public IP address could be in AZ, but you could actually be anywhere in the world. What a bunch of hogwash from truly uneducated idiots (and people in Victoria, unenlightened and sheltered from world news as they are will probably buy it).

Anonymous said...

Also it is important to note not only are these businesses in Victoria linked to the U.S. but looking at 1 classe's stats the reason the people are here from the U.S. is that their spouse is Canadian. The spouse was fed up with living in the US (bible belt) Middle East (unrest). Also some of the families have old friends here. There is a strong but small Korean community. There is always a Canadian connection.

Not one just randomly decided "Hey" lets go to Victoria.

Not necessarily a Victoria connection but certainly a Canadian connection.

vg said...

"but only later says that she refers to the 73 hits for the month at the Bear Mountain web site. What fools! What desperation"


73 hits ? they could have come from a pop up link, that is the most pathetic attempt to pump/spin the market at all costs I think I have ever seen. The TC is a total joke.


roger, I saw no coverage on CHEK news last night for the first 30 mins I watched though CFAX is playing the sales angle, not the price, though their webpage news section does say the average price is "up" to $606,000...hmmmmm.... is this a tag team approach ?

Anonymous said...

I am probably talking too much but there have been many books and articles written against urban sprawl and cookie cutter subdivisions. There was even a great documentary called Burbs I think ... about people living way out in cookie cutter subdivisions and the commutes, lonliness and disconnect with any sense of community. These were hard working people but prices were so expensive in the communities they were forced in these subdivisions.

Why would the VREB see this as a future for Victoria? Is Victoria 50 years behind? I know my ex RE agent fancies himself as a developer and I am sure that this would be his dream.

vg said...

The more embarrassing part was the mention of the 37 hits from California versus the 11 from Arizona. LOL ... that has to be the worst piece of journalism I think the TC has ever produced on the RE bizz. Wow,like blow me away with those massive numbers ! LOL

If I was the Bear Mountain guy I would never allow her an interview ever again. All this means is business has slowed to a crawl and goes against the hyped up headline.

What happened to all the Saudis in Dubai buying in that they were pumping on CHEK several months back ? Would have been the perfect time to toss that in if it actually was for real.

vg said...

to summarize this, is trying to sell condos to people in Arizona and California kind of like trying to sell snow to the eskimos ? ;)

Anonymous said...

I was showing these blogs to various friends and one friend remarked on the list of occupations of parents in a single class in the school. Her children are already graduated from the same school.

She noted that 10 years ago most of the parents were government workers, medical professionals and owned small businesses. The difference is dramatic as well as the cars in the parking lot.

greg said...

Roger reviewed the latest VREB and TC "news" releases:

Greater Victoria's condominium market stayed strong last month with 125 sales through the Multiple Listing Service.

The article did not mention that there are over 900 condos presently listed on MLS and countless more pre-sales being offered by developers.

This is not surprising - they do not want to offend their advertisers.


That's the beauty of a bear or a bull blog for that matter - since they don't advertise or contribute anything to the blog, they are in no position to influence anything.

What I would suggest is that VREB take up a collection, and offer to buy each local bear blog for $100,000.

Then, with the money, since we can now all afford to pay at least $100,000 extra, we all buy a house in Fernwood and support another year of madness.

Do you think anyone from VREB could get back to HHV, Prairieboy, Greg and bubble'n fizz(le) on the possibility. The window of opportunity to quiet down this non advertising influenced reporting is dwindling fast.

Soon the general public may become aware of these bear blogs, then the game will be over.

hhv said...

Even this little site gets about double the "hits" of the Bear Mtn site... but per day. What a joke. Maybe I'll start tracking how many of them come from the US.

Why didn't she mention the number of rentals available at Bear Mtn, owned by the developer? Why didn't she mention the number of deposits given up and people walking away (I've got an unconfirmed 7 so far)... I guess it's starting.

I was out for a bike ride this morning with a group from Oak Bay. Says one guy, we're selling our Mayfair area condo and buying a house. I ask if its been busy. He says yes. I ask any offers? No. Thankfully his new house is subject to sale of condo. I thought you couldn't buy a house with subject to's? Isn't this a hot market? I nearly fell off my bike laughing when he said "but all the retirees, techies, etc"

Anonymous said...

The ridiculous TC article reinforces again what most people dont understand about the msm generally.
You (ie. the general reader, watcher, listener) are NOT the customer. You are the PRODUCT delivered to the advertisers (the CUSTOMER). The MOTIVATION of the msm is profitability for the owners (shareholders).
----and theres absolutely nothing wrong with this if kept in mind and digested with the proverbial grain of salt. No reason to spew bile at the TC -they're just doing their job for the Canwest media network.

Anonymous said...

We had painters here who have been working on most of the Bear Mountain Project and they said they are all seem to be just sitting.

However, I was out for drinks with people and they said Bear Mountain was sure selling when I said it was not.
I admit I have never seen it.

How many are for sale at this time. How many have sold?

roger said...

anon 2:23 said

The MOTIVATION of the msm is profitability for the owners (shareholders).
----and theres absolutely nothing wrong with this if kept in mind and digested with the proverbial grain of salt.


Yep - thats 100% correct. Money talks and takes first place - quality news is second. There is very little investigative journalism in Victoria with the exception of true professionals like Jody Paterson. Costs money and could offend advertisers (remember the cross-border car shopping article)

When you have a one newspaper town they don't have to make much effort. The Ottawa citizen was like the TC for years until a second daily came on the scene.

We should consider ourselves lucky to have the Internet. You can get many different viewpoints and get much closer to the truth. No wonder many newspapers are in a financial squeeze and losing readers.

roger said...

A few days ago I pointed out how one local realtor was comparing Victoria to the south of France. Well what a difference a few weeks makes.

Bear Warning - Gag Reflex Alert!!

Now we can enjoy that Luxury Seaside Living European Neighborhood feeling

Stroll down the streets of Victoria and enjoy harmonious seaside living with the feeling of a quaint european village. Coffee shops, antique stores, designer clothing just blocks away from your new favorite retreat on the seaside. Victoria is worlds renowned for its warm temperate climate, perfect for golfing year round or lengthy walks along the shore line. Victoria is a thriving city with its own unique arts community, theatre arts, bistros and lounges.

I was going to make some comments but I will leave that to the posters on this blog.

BM said...

Devil's Advocate,

Not sure why the slagging on 73 hits a day on the Bear Mountain website?

I used to work for a developer that has sold out many buildings prior and during the boom. Your website comes to a stand still when you are in off months as well as when you are not advertising.

Not to say that 73 hits is a little or a lot but you need to dig deeper. Look at the web analytics - Of the 73 hits, how many registered, how many requested more information, how many purchased. If they sold even 2-3 in a month of no advertising and what is considered a "slow" period then that is not a bad ratio. E

As for Bear Mountain stats not sure what they are. However, I would not expect much movement from November-March. It is more of "resort lifestyle" and those areas sell most real estate during peak periods. Take a look at BM during it's peak months (May-September) - it will probably do more business during those months then most "areas" in Victoria.

HHV - great blog and considering the nature of your site I would expect more hits and probably an increase in hits as the market rises and a decrease when the market heads down.

greg said...

I will repost the RRBS link at my site, it links to that European flavour post, you're free to guess what the acronym stands for....

BM said...

Just read the Bear Mountain article. I guess the original poster is just as good of a spin doctor as VREB, TC and some realtors. Forgot to mention the 72 hits were solely from Arizona, along with an additional 43 from California. This does not include any local stats.

I am a bear but I do not like crappy spin doctor information to prove a decline. To me 115 hits from the U.S. on a victoria location is pretty good considering I worked in Vancouver and we did not get that many hits on our website in a stellar market last year or the year before.

greg said...

AHH -

who cares how many hits their site got? Quoting a hundred or so hits is not convincing.

Who's spinning who?

If Bear Mountain want to be convincing, why not just publish the actual sales vs listings numbers, along with total units under construction.

That would be a lot more convincing.

Anonymous said...

Greg,

That is what I would love to see. I hear they are selling. I hear they are not selling.

roger said...

And now for the hat trick
More info on Bare Mountain:
Alberta money fuels resort building boom

Excerpts:

Dean Mein bought a one-bedroom condo at Bear Mountain just outside of Victoria two years ago and took possession of the unit in August. The painting contractor from Sherwood Park, Alta., bought a second two-bedroom unit last year for $540,000. It will not be finished for another year. We could retire [at Bear Mountain], but nothing is written in stone," Mein explained. "We are going to buy a place in Phoenix next week, too. "The biggest thing for us is the investment."

Bear Mountain's director of real estate, Dale Sproule, says about 40 per cent of the units sell to Albertans

Bear Mountain has sold more than 1,000 units total, in 11 phases of lot sales and eight condominium buildings since 2002. About 120 units in three more buildings will go up for sale this summer. The total build-out for Bear Mountain will be 5,000 doors, mainly condos.

deep throat said...

BEAR MOUNTAIN CONDOMINIUMS

51 condominiums listed for sale.
Number of condominiums sold in the last 90 days.

............1.............

Yup ........ONE............


Wanted "Spin Doctor" for the VREB
Must have valid passport and be able to relocate on a moments notice. Witness Protection plan available.

deep throat said...

Condominums sold in the Urban area of Victoria (Saanich, Esquimalt, Vic West, Victoria, Oak Bay) in the last 90 days -268

Number of buyers from Victoria -201 or 75 percent

Number of buyers from BC - 236
or 88 percent

Number of buyers fron Canada - 265
or 99 percent

So 67 people not from Victoria bought a condo here over the last three months. Yup, I can see the world beating down our doors to live here. A bus load of people every three months - where the heck are we going to put them all!

Anonymous said...

What is up there? I know a couple of nice restaurants, spa stuff, golf.

No beaches, lakes, hills, cross country skiing even.

I have never been up there but would be interested to know (and I should go up and look).

greg said...

Hey DT -

remember, it's resort lifestyle Victoria, they won't be here most of the time....

BM said...

DT,

Last I checked those are MLS stats. As I mentioned, I have worked for developer and unless Bear Mountain is selling it's pre-construction condos on MLS we will not find accurate stats. You will only see re-sale and not BM inventory.

I agree with one of the posters that Website stats do not reflect the true picture. Therefore, I do not use it's merit for our against.

However, Roger posted the other stats that did show the amount of sales and considering Bear Mountain is only 5 have years old those numbers are pretty good. It was during the boom but time will tell how many are buying to keep, vacation, live, or sell.

What will be interesting is to see how many residences come on to the market by years end. They have another building ready for occupancy mid to late this year.

Anon, what Bear Mountain has is that it will be home to the first location in Canada to have two championship Nicklaus golf courses, and a small village. Was up there this past week (fan of the sushi and golf). The core of the village is taking shape and should have the market and few other boutique places up and open this spring/summer.

Hope that the market corrects a bit so I can purchase a SFH over there. I was looking at purchasing a lot and building but will wait it out a bit

vg said...

where does it say "hits per day" in the article ? it says for November,and then for December.


It does not say "average" either, so this means hits "per month" or else it would have specified.


And how do we know it wasn't the same person half the time ?

olives said...

BM said:

"...I would expect more hits and probably an increase in hits as the market rises and a decrease when the market heads down"

I would think the opposite to occur - and it seems that as the market is flattening/changing and talk of recession, correction, etc., traffic on this and other Victoria blogs is increasing quite dramatically - as it did on American blogs when the U.S. Market started turning - and similarly now on Alberta housing blogs.

I think someone mentioned it before, but some people begin to get nervous about a correction and start googling for more info and come across some of the blogs. There are suddenly a lot of bullish posters on this site.

greg said...

I agree with Olives about Google. I can see where the traffic to my site is originating, and more than half the unique referrals are from google search result pages.

Which is exactly how I came across Patrick.net two years ago.

DT said...

Greg Said

"Hey DT -

remember, it's resort lifestyle Victoria, they won't be here most of the time...."


No, they won't be here ANY of the time - there speculators.

Today, 51 of the speculators are trying to get out - but only one has made it.

If you had bought a pre-construction suite two years ago - you would be lucky to get your original purchase price today.

Tough sell for the BM developer to flog the units based on appreciation.

Check out craiglist to see how many of these condos are for rent!!!


D T

olives said...

I didn't read the TC today, but a friend of mine was saying there was an ad for another price reduction at the ever-struggling Tuscany Village. She couldn't tell me how much of a reduction though....

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Anonymous said...

You can't use "hits" as an valid measure of a website success, you can only use unique visitors and even then it is questionable.

A single user can generate many hits during a session as will a search engine crawler or spider. You could have a 1,000 hits on a website without a single valid user ever seeing it.

The MLS stats are misleading as well. It is no secret that a lot of condos last year never made it to the MLS so year over year comparisons are not accurate.

Depending on who you talk to, the golf course and hotel at BM lose $50K - $100K a month. Add in slow sales, the good news articles being written in the TC, and Les' recent media tour and it is obvious that there are real problems in the condo market.

Anonymous said...

The TC seems like infomercial. Does not come across as professional or journalistic integrity.

vg said...

Thats terrible news today on the RE agent. Another bad mark on our city and the safety factor for agents to show houses alone or women even walking alone,very sad.

We had an attempted abduction in our neighborhood a couple of weeks ago while the girl waited for the bus,thank God she fought him off. This is what I meant about the whackjob factor in this town,seems to be moving into a new level.

StargazerXL said...

Yes, that is sad news about the young RE agent killed on Saturday in Gordon Head. Thanks to today's TC, we also know that the property in question, at 1702 De Sousa Pl., is listed for $964,900, and "is described as an outstanding executive home in a brand new upscale small four lot subdivision. It has five bedrooms and four bathrooms."

roger said...

Housing starts to cool in 2008: CMHC

British Columbia's housing starts are expected to drop in 2008 from 39,195 units in 2007 to 33,250 units in 2008. Resale price increases, which grew by 12.1 per cent in 2007, will ease to six per cent in 2008 and five per cent in 2009 owing to an influx in listings and fewer resales, the federal agency forecast.

Hmmm... Projected 15% drop in new homes built in BC in 2008. Resale house price increases dropping to half what they were last year.

What will specuvestors and FTBs think when they read this report and realize that the easy money has been made??

Tony Danza said...

I call BS on Anonymous 10:28 am's post:

How many people here know such specific details about the occupations of their children's classmates parents? Give me a break, are you sure you're not posting about a private school in Manhattan. Hilarious. Victoria's filling up with rich hedge fund managers and American businessmen, right, what about the Saudi oil sheik? You forgot that one.

"Lets see. I will do just one class - there are two classes for each grade.

One family owns internet based company. Came from abroad.

Ex-Investment Banker for large bank in the US - now consultant (Victoria Native).

Investment Banker - runs own book in US and commutes from US...blah blah"

Tony Danza said...

Anonymous 12:10,

Guess what, the majority of parents in affluent parts of Victoria still are small business owners, health pro's and double income gov workers (oh and now RE agents). And those fancy cars in the parking lot? Can you say HELOC?

Man who let the ignorant RE agent in?


"She noted that 10 years ago most of the parents were government workers, medical professionals and owned small businesses. The difference is dramatic as well as the cars in the parking lot."

Tony Danza said...

Hey BM how's the painting business in Alberta going? Unload your bear mountain condos yet?

Anonymous said...

Sorry Tony but it is true.

Many people have moved here that have their own businesses like it or not.

This is what the parents do in one of my kids classes. It seems many people have their own businesses here. I have known the parents for many years and the class is small and yes it is sad but that is what they do.

One family in the school owns about 30 travel agencies. The owners are from Victoria.

This might make you feel better. I pointed out that many of these businesses are directly linked to the US. If the US goes into a recession then business will be tougher for them. And maybe they will all loose their houses and not be able to feed their families and their marriages will break-up. They will also have to fire all the people they employ which is quite a few.

Then we can all feel good about ourselves.

Anonymous said...

I have got to say I have lived in many cities in Canada and no wonder Victoria ranked 8 in "happiness" of the general public.

I have never encountered a bunch of miserable people as I have in this city.

So so sad.

roger said...

Tony Danza said

I call BS on Anonymous 10:28 am's post:

How many people here know such specific details about the occupations of their children's classmates parents? Give me a break, are you sure you're not posting about a private school in Manhattan.

Man who let the ignorant RE agent in?


Tony, I thought I should set the record straight. The poster was giving an answer to a question that I asked about the parents in her kid's private school in Victoria. In a private school most parents know each other quite well because they are actively involved in school activities and social functions. I found her answer informative and appreciated the detailed response.

I think you probably made a honest mistake in slamming the poster but she has been a regular poster for some time and we should cut her some slack. We are all here for the same reason (to share ideas and information) and everyone should feel welcome to share their thoughts.

BTW - Welcome back. I have not seen any posts from you in a while.

Tony Danza said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tony Danza said...

Roger, thanks. Where did she say her kid attends a private school? How can you keep track of the identity of an anonymous poster over such a long period of time? Just wondering. I still call BS.

FinanceCapitaloftheWorld said...

But one must wonder when some say that we have these hedge fund managers, these captains of industry, zillionaires living in winter sun deprived Victoria. I mean, we have one lousy turbo prop flight to Seattle. Regina (1/3 our size) has more flights to the US than us. Halifax, a similar sized city as Victoria has flights to Florida, Bermuda, NY JFK, NY LGA, Newark, Washington DC, Boston, Chicago and Atlanta. We have zippo. Why? 1. Because this city is full of cheapstakes, too greedy to spend money on traveling (or paying their 40 year mortgages. Instead, they'll drive 1000 km with their 30 year old pollutant spewing Pintos 2. Because there are no business travellers coming into this city as we do not have any company head offices here. From a business perspective, we are a backwater, even seen as a of hillbillies (look at all the diesel vehicles, trucks and crappy old cars in this town, you'd think you're in some logging town).

Bubble 'n Fizz(le) said...

roger

Hmmm... Projected 15% drop in new homes built in BC in 2008.


The new condo glut is already here, for example The Aspen at Lakeside Village.

roger said...

Tony Danza said

How can you keep track of the identity of an anonymous poster over such a long period of time?

Because the poster used to publish under a nickname until she was bashed so badly by others on this blog that she started using anonymous and posting less frequently. She did me the courtesy of responding to my question and now I am sorry that I asked it.

Can we please just leave this poster alone? I am concerned that the tone on this blog could turn negative and then anyone with something to say will be afraid to post. No one appreciates being called a BS'er

vg said...

stargazerxl,

yes,just like the last murder in Victoria back in the fall,does this paper have no morals ?

I noticed CHEK mentioned something about the house being for sale for a long time as well,who cares ? it will now be for sale for even longer,who could live in there after that terrible event happening ?

vg said...

"Hmmm... Projected 15% drop in new homes built in BC in 2008. Resale house price increases dropping to half what they were last year.

What will specuvestors and FTBs think when they read this report and realize that the easy money has been made??"



Just another brick in the wall.

Metaldwarf said...

I love looking at all the graphs that the blog hosts put together for us. One graph that is very common is the one that shows the average price since 1978 provided by VREB. But I have never seen a graph that shows the change year over year in price. So I made

THIS GRAPH

To me the period 1981-1990 looks a lot like 1994-2005

both periods start with little to negative growth followed by a run up in the rate of appreciation followed by a softening in growth.

Anonymous said...

"The surrounding areas ie. Oak Bay, Hillside, Uplands, 10 mile point etc. will also turn into areas for yes - I will say it again - rich retirees and young families with loads of money. The private schools are full of these people."

---------> Private schools in Victoria such as St. Michael's and Glenlyon were full of "these people" since their foundings near the turn of the century.

--------> I also hate to break it to you guys but the "surrounding" areas such as Oak Bay, Uplands, 10 Mile Point etc. etc were turned into areas for rich retirees and families with "loads of money" at least 25 years ago. In fact, Uplands was "turned" into that kind of an area in about 1920 or so when streetcars stopped at the circle at Midland Rd. So am I supposed to be shocked or what?

Hillside, I admit is new . . . perhaps that is the place to invest? Only in Victoria would a bunch of realtors blather on about a view of Zellers attracting a herd of the well-to-do and famous. I suppose the proximity to Bolen's Books makes the area "world class".

Anonymous said...

Hillside mall also has a Starbucks. This makes the neighbourhood of so very bohemian. First class neighbourhood for a world class city (but with only one "world" destination, Seattle by turboprop, from its "international" airport).

phil said...

Hey, wait a minute. Aren't Miami and Phoenix full of rich people too? How come their markets are crashing?

This is in a place called "West Palm Beach". It sounds like it might be almost as nice as Victoria, but who knows, I've never been off the island. ;)

http://tinyurl.com/2wnxnr

Anonymous said...

Fernwood is across the street from Rockland so what does this make it?

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