Saturday, March 22, 2008

Open Post

I'm off to the top of the world.

Remember to stay the course Bears, we're so close.

Here's your open thread for posting. I'll be back to continue this where I've left off in early June.

326 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 326 of 326
Anonymous said...

What I see with the current (actually the last 13 MONTHS) sales to listing ratio is a lot of sellers fishing for a price. The "fishers" are not the have-to sellers that the market needs for a price correction. Now that the market has gone "balanced", an owner can try a move-up offer "subject to sale of my home". This type of purchase offer has been missing from the market for a number of years due to the frenzy of buying. Now it's back. NO COLLAPSE. Top of the market? Maybe. I can tell the bears are starting to growl. Where's the collapse? "Here's some more stats from the UK. Look at the U.S.". It's coming, it's coming... I know it"! BACK TO YOUR BASEMENT SUITES BEARS.

Anonymous said...

Happy owner said:

Now that the market has gone "balanced", an owner can try a move-up offer "subject to sale of my home". This type of purchase offer has been missing from the market for a number of years due to the frenzy of buying. Now it's back.

Let's hope conditional offers come back. When Fred makes an offer to conditionally buy Tom's house in a buyer's market several interesting things happen:

- Fred has made an emotional committment to buy Tom's house and someone making an offer on Fred's house can now squeeze him because he is under emotional pressure to sell. If he goes for it prices are now down on his block.

- If Fred can't sell Tom is hung out to dry and is a "shopworn" listing. The next prospective buyer will see the DOM and squeeze him hard. Falling prices - great.

Happyowner try and spin this any way you want but when you have a buyers' market after all this time watch the buyers get brutal. Soon the shoe will be on the other foot.

Anonymous said...

Sales in January dropped across BC and in many parts of Canada. VREB has stated that we are in a balanced market and VIREB has several areas like Parksville-Qualicum that have a sales/new listings ratio under 40% and are now a buyers market.

There have been a lot of price reductions lately observed by those with PCS accounts. The media, bears and bulls all agree that the BC market is entering a cooling phase. IMHO with rising inventory and lower sales a buyers market will occur in most areas of BC by this summer.

Here is an article called What's a Buyer's Market that makes for interesting reading.

Anonymous said...

" the bears are starting to growl. Where's the collapse? "


LOL we got all year buddy, the US media kept pumping into July while Rome burned all around them as they tuned into Flip This Crap.News for you, no bear wants to buy next month,we are waiting 2 years out just like our southern neighbors had too.

Andecotal: my buddy is in the high end jewel bizz on the mainland and sales have slowed big time since Christmas. He says they are all worried wether their homes are going to go the way of the US. He talks to these people with major money and no one is blowing the cash on the extravagances like last year as they are paranoid what is happening here and he is feeling the brunt of it.

Anonymous said...

If they lose their job and can't pay then they best go find another one and does not play into wether house prices tank or not. It's wether there aren't any suckers left to buy these shit box houses for twice the price of what you can get in other major cities with twice the home.

OK then!

Aaron said...

Canadian unemployment rate rises unexpectedly to 6 per cent in March

Link

interestingly...

"Alberta and British Columbia were the only provinces with notable employment gains in March," the federal agency said, with both posting record increases. Alberta's employment rate jumped to 74.7 per cent - the highest of any province - and British Columbia's participation rate climbed to 64 per cent.

The sectors adding the most jobs in March were transportation, warehousing and natural resources, while the biggest losers were in the information, culture and recreation sectors.


but....

Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist at TD Securities, said the "Canadian labour market is still in good shape. ... But after some incredibly strong employment growth figures over the last year or two, we think that employment growth in Canada is due to slow, and today's report may have been the beginning of a softer trend."

and....

Also this week, the Bank of Canada's senior deputy governor said more interest rates cuts may be necessary to buffer Canada from the slowdown south of the border.


...Didn't work in the US, and it's not going to work here.

Anonymous said...

I got it Olives.

KS - Kindred spirit. :-)

The conversation on KIV is VERY interesting today.

Anonymous said...

Olives. I got it. KS = Kindred spirit.

I'm loving the coversation over on KIV today.

Anonymous said...

Oops, sorry. Double post.

Anonymous said...

great charts roger, the last one tells the tale with sales/new listings 3 mont average looking like a ski slope.



One note on the fulltime jobs numbers versus part time for Canada from the Globe :

"The number of part time jobs in Canada rose 34,000 in March – the largest increase in part-time work since November, 2006, the statistical agency said. Meanwhile, the number of full-time jobs dropped significantly by almost 20,000 positions."

Anonymous said...

VG said:

"The number of part time jobs in Canada rose 34,000 in March – the largest increase in part-time work since November, 2006, the statistical agency said. Meanwhile, the number of full-time jobs dropped significantly by almost 20,000 positions."


That will be good news for the RBC mortgage department. On their blog they talk about university students and mortgage eligibility. All those new part-time workers will want to buy real estate and will need one of their 40 year, no money down mortgages. :>)

Anonymous said...

If they are only part time, won't they need an 80-year, money-back mortgage?

Anonymous said...

Garth's latest,telling it like it is.


Once again, self-dealing industry obfuscates the housing market facts


My contention is that within a few months, maybe a handful of weeks, Canadians will be caring far more about the value of their homes than they will about antics in the House of Commons, immigration legislation, boycotting the Olympics or the revenue-sucking GST cut.

Today families in this country have more than 80% of their entire net worth in one asset, their homes. This is even more undiversified than the Americans, where a real estate collapse has swept through the middle class like a fatal contagion, and brought the world’s greatest economy into recession. And do you hear about this in Parliament? I didn’t think so.

Meanwhile our compliant and institutional media, combined with self-dealing industry spokesguys are papering over the symptoms of a disease we’d best all talk about treating. A good example is this week’s assertion by Royal LePage, given prominence in unblinking publications such as the Globe and Mail, that the Canadian housing market is strong and vibrant, as witnessed by continual price increases.

“Canada’s housing market remains on solid footing. With the notable exception of a handful of small western cities, the country has returned to an environment characterized by moderate price increases,” says Phil Soper, LePage CEO, in a single-voice media article.

Sadly, this is not the case. Let me give you some reasons.

cont'd......


http://www.greaterfool.ca/

Anonymous said...

his comment about buying here :

"You ask about buying a property in Victoria? Don’t."


Liberal or not, selling a book or not, you gotta love this guy's "say it like it is" attitude, not to mention the timing on the bears behalf. Who else out there is sounding the warning bell ? RBC ? LePage ? or maybe your friendly mortgage broker desperate for sales before they shut down the Victoria satellite offices ?

Anonymous said...

Housing market to sink after Games: Expert
Wait until 2011, Pomeroy advises first-time buyers


I think actually the downturn will happen next year well before the games, who is going to wait till after? By next spring we'll be well into a recession with job losses and the US election will be over so
the interest rates will be marching up and our inventory should be big enough for a crash to happen.

Anonymous said...

Zzzzzzz. Wake me up when something happens, losers.

Anonymous said...

Something is happening and if you're sleeping you'll miss it.

Oh, and no bitter renter here.

We are socking away the money we save from not having bought an overpriced hovel and when we do buy we will give ourselves our own mortgage.

Money going out from us and getting paid back to...well, us.

Not bitter but darn smart I'd say. )

Anonymous said...

spinning pretty ignores multiple price reductions and places head back in the sand,typical bagholder mentality. And at all time highs a VERY large bag.

Anonymous said...

beagle,

two interesting quotes,they obviously see rising rates later this year to combat inflation and that will be the final nail,lowering of interest rates is not effecting the mortgage rates to any great degree :



"He said the underlying conditions for a bubble-burst are arriving -- income stagnation, rising interest rates and over-supply of units.

"I would say wait -- buy in 2011," he said.


Sharon Chisholm, the association's executive-director, said she worries mostly about the young college graduate, saddled with student loans and working in a low-paying job.

"We're coming up with a whole generation of people, the Y Generation, who have debt, and won't be able to take a mortgage on a house," she said.

Anonymous said...

RE:"Also this week, the Bank of Canada's senior deputy governor said more interest rates cuts may be necessary to buffer Canada from the slowdown south of the border."

If it happens(I doubt it with inflationary pressures rising in food, gas, etc.),as far as Real Estate is concerned, it's a big "So What" anyway.

As of February the BoC rate has dropped 50 bps in 1 year (a 5.5% relative drop) while the 5 year mortgage rate has increased 64 bps which is a 9.6% relative gain during the same 12 months.

Anonymous said...

I've checked prices in Beverly Hills (using http://www.realtor.com/). And folks, prices there are actually cheaper there than in Oak Bay. If only the people of Oak Bay saw what a rich city (like Beverly Hills) really is like. It is clean, well planned, wealthy, exclusive and non of the riff raff grey haired scrowled faced people and their pollution spewing rust buckets, like those found in Oak Bay. Oak Bay looks like a little mountain pass town with tacky stores (no bloomingdales or Channel stores on Oak Bay Ave.) with run down houses and pot holed streets.

Anonymous said...

"A four-bedroom house in Palm Springs that had previously sold for $1.2 million went for $625,000. A two-bedroom cottage in Los Angeles' trendy Silver Lake neighborhood that had traded hands two years ago for $887,000 got picked up for $285,000."

http://www.businessweek.com/
magazine/content/08_15/b
4079065602019.htm?
chan=top+news_top+news+
index_top+story

Fast forward Fall 08', sitting ugly's house sells for $80,000, bought 3 years ago at $350,000.

Anonymous said...

Zzzzzzz. Wake me up when something happens, losers.


Yeah, sitting bull, a real loser here. Only got 6 figures for a downpayment. Renting a 3/2 townhouse for half the cost of buying it. And we're banking only $5K a month. Yeah, we cry ourselves to sleep every night because we're not smart like you, sitting bull.

Anonymous said...

C'mon Jed, we're load'in up the truck and move to Beverly, hills that is,swimmin pools,movie stars. ;)

Anonymous said...

There was an interesting episode last weekend in the show "Global Currents" about debt in Canada. It featured mortgage debt as well.

Here's the link to the video clip for those interested:

Debt Trap

Anonymous said...

HHV said

...... then I'll leave an open thread which I give 3 weeks before it gets A) too long or B) too boring and this blog dies a slow and painful death...


I guess he knew his audience.

Anonymous said...

Hey Roger, I know someone with a property in Courtenay who says that even though Van and Victoria will correct, Courtenay won't because it's special....LOL

It's all pretty amusing and I'm sure the property owners in Vancouver think Victoria is nothing special compared to the world-class vancouver

Anonymous said...

oooh, I had to post the Real Estate Forums stats over on KIV.

Anonymous said...

Somebody send Clara at the TC the link:
http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/
citylist.html

Vancouver is NOT a world-class city. Victoria is not even on the radar.

Anonymous said...

Vancouver is the equivalent of a Cleveland or Rochester on the world stage. Victoria is worse, like a ghetto/lumber jack town full of mobile homes, pollution spewing rust buckets and wood burning as primary source of heat.

Anonymous said...

Vancouver is the same ranking as Detroit. You know you can buy a house for $5,000 there. Victoria is then worse than Detroit.

Anonymous said...

The fact that house prices here are more expensive than Beverly Hills and that we are not even worthy of Detroit's ranking in terms of world class standing, makes it all the more perverted the twilight zone that we live in here that is inhabited by people afflicted by delusion, self-pity and denial.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for posting those over on KIV Olives.

Anonymous said...

Olives,

I have been following the Central Island area for a a while. Your friend is in for a big surprise!!

The Comox Valley has 540 houses for sale and last month they only had 53 sales. (91 in March 2007). Only 1 in 10 houses sold!!

Parksville-Qualicum is also in for a correction. MLS had 500 house listings tonight and only 42 sold last month (65 in March 2007). Worse here 1 in 12 sold.

The correction will start up island, North of Nanaimo. The economy is weak (i.e. forestry), fewer retirees moving there (hard to sell in Calgary) and lots of folks listing need to sell (age, health reasons, job loss). February sales were down as well and inventory continues to build.

Ryan said...

In some ways, people would be better off declaring bankruptsy and starting over. Especially couples who borrowed the absolute maximum they can afford to carry (or more) to buy a condo that isn't big enough for them now, let alone the next 40 years. They may never be able to buy the house they were expecting to "trade up" to in a few years.

Anonymous said...

Attn: 'sitting pretty' and 'happy owner.'.......


Have both of you considered taking the IQ test? Maybe you qualify to join the genius org, Mensa....

Or maybe......you could both be put on the waiting list for brain transplants....

BTW, I wish the owner of this blog takes us out of our misery by ending this discussion and starting a new thread. It's tedious to read 242 posts. Thanks

Anonymous said...

The owner of this blog is out of town until June so I think this will go longer and longer for a while.

Too bad HHV isn't here to see what is happening with the March numbers.

Is anyone else holding their breath waiting for the April numbers?

Anonymous said...

S2:
Even out-of-towners can check their email. I sure hope OP starts a new thread, or it'll be dead by June!

Anonymous said...

Have both of you considered taking the IQ test? ... BTW, I wish the owner of this blog takes us out of our misery by ending this discussion and starting a new thread. It's tedious to read 242 posts.

No, but if you don't know how to get to the end of the thread quickly, then maybe you should.

Anonymous said...

haha!, that's a good one sitting pretty

Anonymous said...

Wow,

Markets gone for a shit! Mmmm... Lot a SOLD signs around. Maybe the bears can get in at double the cost in 10 years. Save your beer bottles.

Anonymous said...

yep, the bears can afford as much beer and fine wine as we desire while golfing Bear Mountain instead of being married to it,not to mention travelling to distant lands with all our monthly savings, whereas the maxed out sitting pretty's and the 40 year humpers have to cut costs and eat less Kraft Dinner while paying out two paychecks a month to the bank with 99% going to interest on a declining and overvalued asset.... burp ! ;)


PS Must be a drag being a paper princess and never going to get to see any of it.

Anonymous said...

roger,
that listing I mentioned with the client moving out of the country is knocked down another $10,000. Thats a $60,0000 drop in just over a month and a half and it still isn't sold...sitting pretty looks like she doesn't read the PCS cause the truth hurts too much. Kinda like owning Nortel at $100 saying it's going to $200.

Anonymous said...

Just sold my condo after a whopping 5 days on market.

Honestly, the sky isn't falling. There are lots of buyers at the lower end of the spectrum (we had 7 showings in our five days), looking for well-priced properties. I'm glad I haven't spent the last two years preaching and living in a rented hole in the ground.

VG you remind me of that guy that wanders around downtown with that "The End is Coming" sign on his bicycle. I'm sure it is coming. In fact I know it's coming. But look at yourself.

Anonymous said...

anon said:

Just sold my condo after a whopping 5 days on market. Honestly, the sky isn't falling. There are lots of buyers at the lower end of the spectrum (we had 7 showings in our five days), looking for well-priced properties.

In the condo market over 500K there were 14 sales in March throughout Greater Victoria. Today there are 264 available on MLS. Ratio is 5%.

Between 300K-500K there were 55 sales in March and 505 now on MLS.
Ratio is 11%.

Under 300K there were 84 sales in March and 302 now on MLS. Ratio is 28%.

Anon - Perhaps you should walk around town with a sign reading "I was lucky to sell my condo". The sky isn't falling but the condo market is crashing!!

Anonymous said...

anon April 11, 2008 10:40 AM,


Sounds like you under priced yourself. You could have got more!
What are you going to do now rent a hole or buy in again?

Anonymous said...

"There are lots of buyers at the lower end of the spectrum (we had 7 showings in our five days), looking for well-priced properties."

Certainly cant argue with that-the current situation however is (as Roger thoroughly documents)that most condos (SFDs too) are not "well priced".
There are obviously many more sellers than buyers at the moment so basic supply and demand dictates what happens next.

You were apparently clever enough to have an attractive price on your unit to attract lookers and a buyer but thats making the case for a condo downwards price adjustment -not refuting it..

Anonymous said...

I was seriously thinking about buying a condo (first time buyer) a few months ago and figured out that now isn't a good time.

I still go to open houses to get a better idea of what's out there when I do decide to buy. In other words many viewings isn't that big of a deal, they might be people just like me who have decided against buying now but are still interested in browsing.

Anonymous said...

Well, perhaps I should wear a sign. I did price aggressively, but I don't think I undersold myself. I might have gotten another 2k, but I would have had to compromise on my date, which was more important to me.

I did a lot of research on recent sales near me, looked at what the other prices were, what was selling and what wasn't, and priced accordingly. I'm a big believer in making my own luck.

As to beagle's question, I will probably rent a short-term hole. I've been looking for 4 months for an upgrade and haven't seen much, but I'm encouraged by price reductions and more choice. I'll be buying something before the end of the summer. If the market drops in the meantime, then yay for me. If it doesn't, then I'll still be buying, because I can't live my life by the fluctuations of the market, and my family's comfort is of utmost importance. Statistically, no matter when I buy during this cycle, I'll be up after 10 years, and this will be a long term purchase.

I admit that I also believe the condo market is coming down, and probably significantly, which was about 50% of the reason I decided to list. If I had sold last november I could have gotten another $8k over what I got.

I will also admit that I was trying to get a rise out of VG, whose prose and posts really piss me off.

Good luck to all you bears, and may you afford something soon.

Anonymous said...

anon 1:35 said:

Statistically, no matter when I buy during this cycle, I'll be up after 10 years, and this will be a long term purchase.

I tend to agree with you with the exception of condos. There is a glut on the market now and they have several issues which affect future appreciation:

- no significant land value (i.e. box in the sky)
- condo fees go higher every year because more maintenance is required
- can have large special assessments if big problems happen (roof, leaking, structural)
- general appearance depends on willingness of neighbours to keep place maintained (carpets, common areas, windows, parking area ec.)
- can become architecturally dated faster than a house

BTW I have just updated the condo slideshow with March stats. You can watch it here

Anonymous said...

...and my family's comfort is of utmost importance

You and your family live in a condo? And your comfort is of utmost importance.

Does your Russian grandmother sleep in the bathroom?

Newsflash, many bears can afford to buy now but aren't doing so.

In the meantime I only rent a crappy 3 bedroom townhouse in a desirable location for $1100/month.

My inclination to pony up 400 gs to live in a similar location for $2400/month plus taxes, maintenance and insurance just isn't that strong.

Anonymous said...

By the way, this thread is getting pretty long, if anyone wants to visit my site and make a couple inflammatory, redundant or brilliant comments, I would appreciate it. There are a couple new graphs showing how much inventory there actually is out there on the MLS in the VREB area right now.

Anonymous said...

By the way, this thread is getting pretty long, if anyone wants to visit my site and make a couple inflammatory, redundant or brilliant comments, I would appreciate it.

Your site is boring, not to mention poorly designed and down half the time.

Anonymous said...

Your site is boring, not to mention poorly designed and down half the time.

SP,

Your comments are boring, not to mention poorly phrased, illogical, overly smug or snarky, and without insight or merit.

Your comments are the disposable equivalent of garbage to be thrown in a waste paper basket and forgotten immediately and for all time.

Can't wait to read the superior Sitting Pretty blog one day. Glad you like my site. Just keeping it real.

Anonymous said...

It is only an assumption that prices will be above where they are 10 years from now. In Japan, 18 years or so later they are still down. I don't think generally a bubble bursts and then just starts recovering up to where it left off. If so, then how is that a burst? How much lower than the top of the bubble is the Nasdaq? Tulips? After the real estate bubble in Florida in the 1920's, does anyone know how long it took to get back up to bubble heights? I will see if I can find out, but I'll be really surprised if it was only 20 or even 30 years.

Anonymous said...

Olives: you're right, of course. However, Victoria is not Japan, or 1920's Florida. Let me put it another way:

I'm comfortable with betting that if I buy this year, I will not lose money ten years from now, given my current knowledge level of real estate in Canada and Victoria. Obviously, I would prefer to get the best deal that I can, and will lowball any deal I think I can get away with, especially if the market is panicking. But I'm not willing to compromise other areas of my life to hold out for the bottom.


As for Greg - Newsflash! My family is my wife, myself, and my first child who is due later this year. This is the other 50% of the reason I sold my condo - my family is growing. As for buying, I don't want to be renting someone else's property and be evicted unexpectedly on a landlord's whim and have to move my kids (which I've seen happen to two of my close friends/relatives). Good for you for finding cheap rent in a "desirable area". I'm bearish on the market and willing to pony up for a nice home at a good price, so try to keep your unbridled superiority complex to yourself.

Anonymous said...

anon 4:49 said:

I'm comfortable with betting that if I buy this year, I will not lose money ten years from now, given my current knowledge level of real estate in Canada and Victoria.

If you can really stay put for 10 years I think you will come out ahead as well. However, life is what we get while we are making plans. What will you do if the market drops over the next five years and one of the following happens:

1. You get bad neighbours and life is real unpleasant?
2. A great job offer comes up in another city?
3. The family gets bigger and the house is just too small or unsuitable?
4. Serious illness occurs and you don't have the monthly cash flow to keep the house?

How will you feel if you buy and houses all around you drop for the next five years or so. New neighbours and friends keep telling you what a great deal they got and they are glad they waited.

We all have to make our own decisions. These are just some of the things I like to consider.

Anonymous said...

Anon, I suppose there is a huge difference in one's bearish perspective if you think this is only a "real estate cycle", rather than a credit bubble at the end of the long business cycle (and anticipate deflation). I am obviously much more bearish than you and it seems Roger.

I agree that you have to do what you feel comfortable with no matter what, although I don't know if the Japan and 1930's comparisons are that far off base - except as many would say we are in a far worse position than Japan was then, and worse than N. America was in the late 1920's.

Just different opinions - but maybe we shouldn't automatically assume anything right now. I do see the opinion quite often that the "bubble" will burst but that prices will then soon continue to rise back to these levels shortly (10 years). I would suggest that if that is the case then either there wasn't a bubble or that it didn't then truly burst.

Anonymous said...

Statistically, no matter when I buy during this cycle, I'll be up after 10 years, and this will be a long term purchase.

anon at 4:49 and 1:35 -

So you feel comfortable on a bearish blog saying that you would rather be comfortable 'cause you have a ten year plan and at the same time argue that your young family is best served by buying 'cause you don't want to live by the fluctuations of the market.

Well, my sister did what you are talking about in a lousy, barely affordable area in Fernwood in the early 90s, and sold 11 years later AT A LOSS!

So don't make too many assumptions without being prepared to live with the consequences of your purchase come what may. My sister at those prices was at least able to rent the place out so it was not too much of a drain when shee moved to another city for career reasons.

Oh, by the way, she had to pay additional thousands when the condo was found to be leaky about two years after it was purchased.

I'm not acting "superior", I was responding to your comment that you hope some day the bears can afford to buy.

Newsflash, choosing not to buy is highly logical, median and average prices are no longer growing in Victoria much. It is not an indication of an inability to buy!

Roger already pointed out what a lucky break you caught selling. At the moment there are more than 9 months of unabsorbed condo inventory in your price bracket, and the general public should know that before they make any hasty or ill thought out decisions.

Anonymous said...

anonymous 10:40,

you sound like one of those RE pump machines on TV saying they are lining up around the blocks for overpriced closets when infact there are price reductions all over the place with slowing sales. There will always be sheep buying at any price but it doesn't mean the market isn't tanking.

And shouldn't you be posting how you just bought not how you just sold ? otherise you must be chicken shit the market is about to tank,double talk or what.

Anonymous said...

"In the condo market over 500K there were 14 sales in March throughout Greater Victoria. Today there are 264 available on MLS. Ratio is 5%."


roger,

looks like anonymous won the condo lottery, but why aren't they bragging about their next purchase ? cause they are FOS ?

Anonymous said...

'I admit that I also believe the condo market is coming down, and probably significantly, which was about 50% of the reason I decided to list. If I had sold last november I could have gotten another $8k over what I got.

I will also admit that I was trying to get a rise out of VG, whose prose and posts really piss me off. "


gee your "family" lived in a condo ? how many kids and dogs ? and now you will live with "family" in a "hole" to save what ? $10 K minus lawyers fees etc ? and you brag you could have got $8 K more a couple of months back ? how does one calculate $8K value on a condo ?? LOL you are a loser if you have to tell that tall tale to get a rise out of me,any relation to spinning pretty ?

Anonymous said...

greg,

I am still confused on anonymous's line of thinking here,it seems very ass backwards. He sells his condo,(good move) but will buy later this summer (bad move),but will rent a hole with a pregnant wife (bad move and unhealthy) but then risks getting stuck there because the mortgage broker won't lend to a pregnant couple who is about to go on maternity leave at half the income capable of supporting a mortgage.

He's bearish on the market but only for 4 months ??... makes no sense at all as I see similar couples with kids in the oven or just born and now struggling with mortgage payments. Then again maybe anonymous makes six figures plus but then why brag about coulda woulda made a whole 8K by selling a couple months sooner ? whole story sounds bizzare to me.

Anonymous said...

How will you feel if you buy and houses all around you drop for the next five years or so. New neighbours and friends keep telling you what a great deal they got and they are glad they waited.

Exactly Roger, the silver lining to a not so dark cloud. And another benefit we won't have to listen to any more whining from the TC or the Provincial Government about how it is too expensive for people to move here that the labour market desperately needs, like police officers and nurses and teachers and hotel clerks and baristas.

While a popping housing bubble might be bad for foolishly overextended boomers and "scraped in at the top no equity" types, not to mention "live for today" financial institutions, for everybody else, it would be great!

Anonymous said...

VG,

this blog has been invaded by realty pump spin meisters. It makes for good entertainment, but in my opinion, the whole "It will e up in ten years so it doesn't matter what I pay" line reeks of BS.

Now if the poster adopted a tag so he could be consistently judged by commentary over time, I might give him some more credit - his real bearish/busllish perspective would soon become obvious.

I may not be the most popular poster here with real estate pumpers, but at least I post with a recognizable tag and my comments can be compared over time if anyone wants to say I called it wrong, they can do it.

On a separate note, there seems to be a lot of desperate pumping posts here lately. None of these people were posting last spring/summer.

I predict we all meet up at the Bengal in the not too distant future to drink to the first 10% drop - at least for condos.

Anonymous said...

Real estate was never viewed as an investment by our forefathers, it was a place to live. See this clip from ABC News about what Professor Schiller has compiled relateive to the average inflated adjusted prices for homes. The market rebound after a cycle could take decades. An example mentioned, was having to wait 30+ years before the market started moving up again. Also, there was a 15 year price depreciation in Japan which could happen in North America.

http://www.yahoo.com/s/855940

Anonymous said...

agreed greg, this sudden influx the last month or two of RE pumpers is most interesting and shows some desperation to keep the dream alive, Seeing these pumpers revel in seeing people not being able to afford a home is actually a very sicko way of thinking towards our fellow Victorians who just want a place to live in and own and not try to turn into some cash cow. Their insistance on posting under "anonymous" gives no credibility in my books either.

Obviously those who have the most to lose despise our posts stating the obvious,sometimes the truth hurts,too bad but thats how one gains wisdom is thru experience and not just wishful thinking. Seeing $60,000 price reductions in a month in a new subdivision only magnifies whats coming.

Anonymous said...

Yeah VG, that whole go back to your basement apartment line is not too good a reflection of the character of those making the comment.

On a separate note, can someone visit and make a couple posts at my site sometime. I have to agree with sitting pretty, I'm getting bored with it too, it needs more variety of input.

I would have figured that at least the pumpers would be on their knocking it by now.

;)

Anonymous said...

That yahoo Schiller video is great - I'm going to go post it on KIV.

Anonymous said...

Have recently been seeing pretty significant price reductions on some NEW condos listed on MLS by the developer.

356 Gorge (converted motel now called cityside) is one and the Leiser building on Yates is another.

I imagine many units not listed on MLS at various developments are becoming quite negotiable price-wise.
Condo auctions coming ??
Thats what happened in Vancouver, Toronto, and even Nanaimo in previous cycles--and the first few actually went quite well for the developers,as I recall--then not so well..

Anonymous said...

The Gateway, the latest phase at the railyards has also been undergoing some price cuts from the developer (same as the leiser building).

Anonymous said...

Haven't been here in a while - I'm sad and disappointed to see some users being so catty with each other while HHV is away. I like to use this site to keep current with the housing market - the sharing of info is great. When users start to personally attack and judge each other, I no longer value their input. Whether someone chooses to buy, sell, rent, or whatever is a personal decision and needs no commentary. I like what HHV set up here - please keep to the facts and let folks make up their own minds. And go enjoy the sunshine!

Anonymous said...

I take it you don't value the input of a great many "anonymous" users then? Seems like a lot of disdain and attacks get dished out under the tag "anonymous".

If you have been reading this site for awhile, I'm sure you are aware that most of the nonsense namecalling began since JMK and his successor real estate pumpers appeared last summer.

Before that, RE bulls were too busy making money to care about little 'ol bear blogs.

Anonymous said...

The conversation is the same as when HHV was here, I see no difference other than HHV is not here to post his thread ideas.

The bull trolls post to incite conflict and stir the pot and the bears respond with facts and some humour. Seems like the bulls can dish it out but can't take the heat where the bears have taken flack for years and we get labeled as the ones with a problem,go figure.

If someone buys then good for them,it's their money,we just express our viewpoints that its a bad time to buy when at record price levels like in 81 and 90 and we are nearing the end of a boom cycle. Bulls vehmenently deny this is happening which just shows their naivity to how financial cycles work and they get razzed.

This is clearly a bears site so get used to it or go to Vibrant Victoria for the latest bull pump and empty hole in the ground report.

Anonymous said...

VREB publishes several reports every month on Greater Victoria properties. The Single Family Dwelling (SFD) stat is available with and without waterfront, acreage and duplexes in the calculation. However the stats and graphs on the VREB website and news releases always includes everything. However the other stat is provided to CMHC for use in their reports and is a more useful to the average buyer.

I retrieved the CMHC reports and plotted them on the following graphs:
Average & Median and Sales & Active Listings

You can see from my comments that this year things are different!!

Olives - You might like to use these on KIV because they are self explanatory. Here are the tiny URLS:

http://tinyurl.com/57kfsl
http://tinyurl.com/5u5h9u

Anonymous said...

Garth's latest comment on Victoria RE, please no bear bashing, I am just the messenger ;)


"Yes, delusional thought seems to be a by-product of living in Victoria. Granted, it is a jewel, with lots of cultural stimulation, an enviable climate, wondrous geography, a quaint way of life, government stability and memorable architecture. All that supports local real estate and has resulted in a premium for houses located in the region.

However, you must remember that affordability levels have plunged as prices increased, and with the inevitable economic downturn gripping the national economy, this problem will be exacerbated. The second major concern is that Victoria’s relatively small population demands a sizeable net inflow of people in order to sustain real estate values. Those people – buying homes worth an average of over $600,000 – need to dispose of real estate in other regions, usually Ontario, before they can buy over-priced digs on the island. But the market is falling apart back East, and the disintegration will only pick up speed over the next year. Conclusion: Victoria prices now have just one direction in which to travel. And anyone buying in the next 12 months will, unfortunately, regret it. The phrase, ‘greater fool’ charges to mind."

Anonymous said...

There's no way I'm posting that Garth Turner quote on KIV today since there are a few discussions today from new homeowners, but I'm glad to post statistics (for some reason I think most people who would actually purchase a first home now or upgrade are probably not the type who would be interested in pesky statistics anyways)

To the anon who thinks things are getting snarky around here - I think they have actually settled down a bit in the past few weeks. It can get a bit crazy over on the Alberta Bubble Blog - but of course the are now on an obvious and rapidly increasing downward spiralin Alberta - anger is taking the place of denial.

"...empty hole in the ground report" LOL!

Anonymous said...

The conversation is the same as when HHV was here, I see no difference other than HHV is not here to post his thread ideas.

You're right. You are as stupid and obnoxious as ever.

The bull trolls post to incite conflict and stir the pot and the bears respond with facts and some humour.

Actually, the spittle flys from your mouth at the slightest provocation.

LOL you are a loser if you have to tell that tall tale to get a rise out of me,any relation to spinning pretty ?

There ya go! Love your "facts and humour!"

Anonymous said...

now now SP, holier than thou and you just snapped back with the f word when someone pointed out the obvious to you on another site?

testy testy.

Anonymous said...

spinning pretty,

stupid and obnoxious ? hmmm, talk about calling the kettle black, you haven't posted once on here anything but venom and spittle because you can't handle the truth that your paper palace is crumbling before your eyes. Have a nice trip down,your one person I will enjoy see losing a bundle.

$60,000 price drop in one month and a bit eh ? talk about an OUCHIE ! :)

Anonymous said...

venom and spittle because you can't handle the truth that your paper palace is crumbling before your eyes. Have a nice trip down,your one person I will enjoy see losing a bundle.

I rest my case.

Anonymous said...

Greg

On a separate note, can someone visit and make a couple posts at my site sometime.


Not much point in visiting your site, since you edit or delete posts you don't like.

Anonymous said...

and what case is that ? that your a troll who posts nothing but vile comments instead of info worthy of debate ? such a sad existance.

Anonymous said...

spinning pretty, do you post on the KIV boards ?

Anonymous said...

just curious - is sitting pretty the same person as spinning pretty? or is "spinning" the elusive "hubby". or would that then be "spinning hubby" or "hubby pretty"?

Anonymous said...

"spinning pretty, do you post on the KIV boards ?"

um, they don't allow people like that over there.

Anonymous said...

olives,

I figgered they didn't allow her type there but thought she may be in the section I read once for some who talk about "not getting any", she seems kinda ornery all the time. ;)

Anonymous said...

"Not much point in visiting your site, since you edit or delete posts you don't like."


I would delete her posts too greg, who needs that trash clogging up the board. Have you ever seen her discuss one chart ? one article ? let alone post an article ?

Anonymous said...

Incase you missed it SP, this is the real world we are talking about here,not your fantasy land.



General Electric sparks panic with profit alert


Stock markets fell sharply after a surprise profits warning from General Electric, as one the world's largest companies and a bellwether for the US economy became the latest victim of the credit crisis.


More than $42bn (£21bn) was wiped off the value of the industrial and financial giant as it warned a downturn in its core US strongholds would leave profits for 2008 as much as 9pc below estimates.

GE chief executive Jeff Immelt recently told investors that profits for this year were "in the bag".



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/12/cnelectric11.xml

Anonymous said...

SP or should I say Bubbles-

I didn't delete any of your obnoxious posts. I merely removed the words "f you" from your post.

I don't mind the obnoxious posts because your motives are obvious, and the public venting and display of this type of desperation is the canary in the coal mine of real estate collapse.

However, I call BS.

As to the continued weak arguments that nobody visits my site, well, it gets quite a few visits, just not so many comments.

Your attempts to take over bear sites with your sour and empty retorts and your attempts to discredit other sites like mine spell failed realtor or failed casey serin wannabe in my book.

I predict SP will go the way of marina prime soon enough. When the general public catches on to where the market is going, a lot of people are going to find these sites and that will be game over for the pointless name calling and crap that you desperate pumpers seem to think makes for witty repartee.

Anonymous said...

Zing.

Anonymous said...

You bears are so angry! Lighten up. After all, if you are sure you are right you should be serene in that knowlege.

Perhaps you're not so sure. I guess things can look pretty glum from the basement sometimes.

Anonymous said...

I have a reliable source who says sitting pretty is actually Greg's mom.

Anonymous said...

sockpuppet is as sockpuppet says - infallible.

Anonymous said...

I predict sitting pretty and spinning pretty have no talent to write their own blog. If they did, nobody would go there because their comments are so snide pointless.

So by garnering attention here they feel like they are "accomplishing" something.

In reality, if they published something about bubbles and how they fizzle out rather than popping, nobody would care.

Oh please start a blog, I really want to see how well you do.

Oh please!

Anonymous said...

Your momma rents you basement cheap, you get good deal, why be angry man, you can't all be rich peeples like me. Too bad you make wrong decision, live with your dicision, man, no chance for you. Right.

Anonymous said...

Reliable source ur momma rents you garden shed cheap, 200 amp service, hammock, it great man, seriesly, we can't beleave you make stupid dicisions about buying so many howses, but rite now u live wit your fate. Later maybe, you buy house bak when Bill Gates takes pity on you, lends you dollars.

Anonymous said...

U shud move to LA, big time movee stars, victoria got big time what, internet stars SP only. Too bad for you, howses go down. O well, live in camper meenwile, ok for now. Next yeer, make a lotta money. U C.

Anonymous said...

ah yes....casey serin

Anonymous said...

HHV said:

If no one takes the challenge, then I'll leave an open thread which I give 3 weeks before it gets A) too long or B) too boring and this blog dies a slow and painful death...


It is sad to see this blog go under. It was interesting to exchange ideas with you folks over the months.

See you at the Bengal later this year.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Can anyone tell us what is going on with the 'Victoria flippers in trouble' blog?????

Anonymous said...

"(bad move and unhealthy) but then risks getting stuck there because the mortgage broker won't lend to a pregnant couple who is about to go on maternity leave at half the income capable of supporting a mortgage."

Lol. And this is why I hate VG's post. Wild assumptions and straw men up the wazoo.

First of all, we're not on "half the income". When you're pregnant, you get EI, and she has a top-up benefit. Second of all, (not that I care to share my mortgage details with you, but since your douchebaggery knows no bounds...) we're pre-approved from the bank for a new mortgage for the next six months, and our old mortgage is transferable if we buy within three months, and it's at a rate that would be more than impossible to get today. I hope that provides a little more context to my "fishy" story. As to my income, we both have professional jobs.

I'd take a handle and meet you guys for drinks, but honestly reading posts from people like Greg and VG make me want to do violence. I'm not an RE "pumper", (as if they would even need to bother with this blog), heck, I agree with most of the stuff that reasonable posters put here. But your wild analysis of the most far-out unresearched articles makes you look even worse than the pumpers in my opinion. Throw in your vindictive attitude, and it just makes me think of John Gabriel's Greater Internet F***wad theory.
The theory

So, go ahead and believe my "story" or not, I don't care much what you guys think. My overall opinion is that condos are coming down, I'm glad I sold mine, I hope that townhouses and SFH's come down a lot in the next few months, and yes I'll be buying back in, and yes we're planning on being there long term.

GL to you all. Hope that VG can relive his/her glorious crash of the '80's.

Anonymous said...

anonymous,

the normal plus anonymous parts of that theory fit your posts so far,
who the heck do you think you are arriving at this blog and saying reading a couple posts that you stirred up makes you want to threaten violence? How does that kind of statement fit in with Gabriel's theory?

If you used a moniker so we could see who you are and what you have been saying all along, you might have some credibility here, but as it is, there isn't really any reason for you to arrive at this blog to explain why you are buying.

If you can't take the fact people are pointing out your decision stands to lose out big time, instead of taking the high road and saying thanks for the advice and we'll see, don't cry about it later. It was you who started with the insults of vg, not the other way around. Check post April 11, 2008 10:40 AM.

Next you admit you were trying to get a rise out of vg whose posts and prose "piss you off". Oh my. April 11, 2008 1:35 PM.

vg said you sound like a pump machine after that. So what? You can dish it but can't take it, now what was that theory about anonymity?

Isn't it funny how a "professional" with enough money and no worries shows up on this blog to push their point of view that they won't lose 'cause they got a ten year plan.

Get real, do you honestly think real estate is only for the rich, or two couple professional families with EI and top ups? It's not.

For people such as yourself with big incomes, no problem I'm sure, but try to display a bit of humility regarding the personal situations of other people.

Since you post as anonymous, and for all I know, ten other names here, you don't really have much right to be upset if you are being tarred with too wide a brush, since you don't bother to escape the anonymity required by Gabriel's theory, you can't really complain too much about that, either.

But I'm sure you will.

Anonymous said...

Was just in Victoria this past week looking at houses. While prices are high, it appears that an OK house can be had for $250K more than something similar in Saskatoon, while some may argue is worth it coastal living.. But Saskatoon prices are way higher than they should be.

In our price range it amazes me what some people are trying to get away with. We saw some decent houses - most of these were date, but in good shape. Unfortunately the few we saw in decent shape didn't work for us layout wise, but otherwise nice.

But the majority in the price range were beat up, rundown and had very bad reno work done which is harder to fix than to move into a house that hasn't been touched in 40-60 years. These sellers need a reality check - no wonder there houses have been on the market 30+ days.

Is a crash ahead? I'm not sure, I hope not as I'm going to buy. But buyers are holding out for better quality in their price range, and they do come up - you just have to be there to jump at a moments notice which doesn't work well for me being on the prairies.

Anonymous said...

"I'd take a handle and meet you guys for drinks, but honestly reading posts from people like Greg and VG make me want to do violence."


good post greg, our new "anonymous" seems to have an anger management problem and obviously is no "professional" as he he says otherwise he would not get so worked up over a blog to threaten an outright physical attack on me. Talk about a headcase.

I feel sorry for your kid in the oven dude, with an anger problem like that I see he will be the brunt of alot of abuse if you're the type to lose it and "do violence" over a blog post that you incited in the first place. Go see a shrink soon bud,for the sake of your kid.

Anonymous said...

PS, as per your "John Gabriel's Greater Internet F***wad theory"
I can only imagine what line of work your in,a professional ditch digger perhaps ? cause a true "professional" would not post something so juvenile only a 14 year old would find humorous.

Anonymous said...

Risky conversation topics:
>politics
>religion
>Victoria RE prices

LOL

Anonymous said...

Anon, why don't you indicate what articles seem "farfetched" to you and why? Also, why do you think a correction as occured in the 1980s is not possible or likely now?

Do you think this is an average-type real estate cycle (which historically has a correction rate of 30 percent apparently), or do you think the real estate cycles are no longer relevant? Do you think business cycles aren't relevant? Whatis your reasoning that you think there will be such a minor correction?

Anonymous said...

I see Bear Mountain is offering condos for $299,000 for the next short while. Wonder what the catch is, another no interest mortgage for a year deal like Reflections ? more desperation out there with a stupid full page add with some guy holding a burnt up electrical cord.

Then we have the Cappela, for the elite only of course at Bear Mountain and it says "minutes" to the inner harbor and the airport. Have you ever travelled from Langford to either locale in "minutes" ? talk about more advertising BS, and they start at the $500,000 range...good luck.

Anonymous said...

olives,

I was thinking the same,all these opposers to any of our posts and articles supporting a serious correction are never debated but answered with only anger and spite.

I am blown away by those can not realize we are in a credit crisis not seen since the Great Depression. These are not just frivoulous statements made by us,they are made by people like Soros,Greenspan and others alike who have been around a few years.


I believe what we are seeing on this blog is the young,naive and immature who have never lost more than $20 on a lotto ticket and can't handle the possibility they are about to lose paper profits in a big way thus they lash out with threats of violence.

Anonymous said...

The part I don't get is, anonymous claims to have realized his paper profits, and his angry outbursts started when he made comments about having to rent a hole for a few months followed by comments he would buy cause in ten years he can't lose.

I believe Olives and Roger were first to point out that, umm, is incorrect.

Anonymous said...

greg,

I don't get it either,you toss out anti bear and anti VG violence threats though you say you are a bear and on our side.

I believe this person is a bear til his pre-approved mortgage expires cause who knows how the credit lending situation will be in 6 months from now and wether he will even qualify by then. Lending rules can tighten faster then you can imagine as we have witnessed in the US and what happened here with the ABCP fiasco. I have a hard time believing they will keep lending the money out to the sheep like candy much longer if the world is entering a global recession.



On an anecdotal note some of my mainland contacts are saying many big money deals they are involved are being done over the next 6 months so their companies are well stocked with cash to survive the coming global fallout. When the big money is worried here then the sheep are the last to see it til they are up to their eyeballs in an overvalued asset asking what the hell happened. Oil at $112,gas and food prices soaring ? somethings got to give and not too tough to figure out what happens in the end.

Anonymous said...

And there's VG turning more posts into snotty insults....and even worse, hoping that anon's credit situation changes for the worse for them. You're so quick to lash out VG, and wish suffering on others, do you maybe have an anger management problem? Did people beat you up a lot, and you want revenge? This blog would be a lot more civil without you.

Anonymous said...

spoken like a true "anonymous", this blog would be alot better with out these invisible posters with psychological problems.

Just another bull who can dish it out but can't take it,they seem to be coming out of the woodwork the more price reductions. I aint going anywhere "anonymous" so best you go start your own blog for whiny bulls.

Anonymous said...

another price reduction this morning for you anonymous bulls, MLS 242415,nice home in a nice area.


started at $624,000 now $569,000 for a $55,000 haircut....more OUCHIE's for the bulls,must have not been priced correctly. ;)

Anonymous said...

I just received the VIREB single family dwelling (SFD) stats today. If Sales/New Listings Ratio (SNR) is under 40% we have a buyers market. Here are the numbers:

Campbell River - SNR 38% (65% last March) - 6.4 months of inventory - BUYERS

Comox Valley - SNR 33% (56% last March) - 8.3 months of inventory - BUYERS

Parksville-Qualicum - SNR 34% (58% last March) - 7.9 months of inventory - BUYERS

Nanaimo - SNR 52% (58% last March) - 4.6 months of inventory - BALANCED

Cowichan Valley - SNR 47% (71% last march) - 5 months of inventory - BALANCED

Before long the TC will have to report these kind of stats. It shows that the island is not immune to a downturn in sales. I suspect a lot of the sales drop in the Comox & PQ areas is due to Alberta buyers tapering off.

Anonymous said...

condo crash ahead MLS 243316 slashed $20,000 in 2 weeks.

even a nice place in James Bay with a pool and gym by the ocean can't sell in the low 400's.... anonymous's story of 5 buyers lining up is sounding more like BS all the time.

Anonymous said...

oops, thats 7 buyers wanting it,not 5.

Anonymous said...

more condos reduced:

MLS# 239802 slashed $40,000 and still no takers.

MLS# 242169 slashed $26,000

MLS# 242632 $25,000 in Oak Bay even.

Anonymous said...

Price cuts don't surprise me, there are abetween 3.5 and 9 months of unabsorbed condo inventory on the market - 3.5 is sub median, 9 is above median.

Overall, there are around 6 months of inventory.

some of those sellers who want to move up to a house this spring are going to have to do something quick, or pay two mortgages, or watch their conditional deals fall through.

source

Anonymous said...

more price slashing,this one got an $80,000 haircut over 2 months,yowser ! MLS# 242390

Another $50,000 on MLS# 242086

When is the MSM going to report this stuff ?

Anonymous said...

They will report it when they start selling for less not listing for less. Considering I could purchase a home for 100k and list it the year after for 130 but reduce it to 120 and sell it for 110. That is still a yearly increase of 10%.

Did not make a difference what I listed for or reduced. Selling price is what counts

Anonymous said...

anon said: Did not make a difference what I listed for or reduced. Selling price is what counts


vg said: more price slashing,this one got an $80,000 haircut over 2 months,yowser ! MLS# 242390

This is 2763 Murray Dr. BC Assessment is 816K. Currently listed for 699.9K after reductions. I think the owner is in the barber chair waiting for the haircut to be finished on accepted offer day.

Anonymous said...

"Did not make a difference what I listed for or reduced. Selling price is what counts."


true, but the MSM does not hesitate to report on many subjects where it may not be "on the books" but is "word on the strret" with some facts to back it up and to spot a serious trend change occuring that is news worthy and gives the reporter some brownie points for stepping away from the pack.

Anonymous said...

If you want to see some real haircuts check out Mish's Latest Commentary

LA down 18.5% and San Diego down 19.4% in one year.

Hmmm.... Seems like only yesterday that folks In the U.S. were talking about the great weather and how everyone loved Southern California.

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