In my PCS I watch two market segments: 2 bed 1 or more bath condos under $250K and SFH under $425K with a suite or suite potential. Both of these segments don’t include areas outside the core, so no Central Saanich or farther west than Langford. I’d argue that these two segments should be, and have been, the hottest in the market over the last year simply because these segments are the only “realistic” options for most Victorians.
In the SFH category there have been 12-14 listings (some of these are price reductions that appear new based on my filters) and no sales recorded since April 22. That isn’t to say nothing has sold, just that the PCS isn’t showing them as sold. So it could be that there are conditional offers in this list of properties that haven’t had the conditions removed yet. So much for bidding wars and unconditional offers only being accepted stories, eh?
Condos are only a mildly different story, slightly more listings, maybe 25-28 and one sale since April 29. I’ve seen price reductions and re-lists (again bringing previously higher priced units into my screening) and more “realistically” priced new listings. Same caveat around “sales” as above.
Back when we first started watching these categories we’d often see houses around $380-$400K and condos around $210K, then over last summer and fall asking prices jumped up closer to $415K and $230K. Something has definitely changed here. It appears like the buyers have up and left the building. And the sellers are starting to realize this.
Why may this be? I think the FTBer is long priced out of the market. Maybe some with help from the bank of mom and dad are still playing around, but even these, in my opinion, will be already in the market if they were going to get in with help. So the rest of us who have to rely on income and savings to support our home purchases can’t get value, or can’t get financing, so we don’t buy.
My guess? I’m thinking the only people buying right now are the same ones who are trying to sell. The market is flat. You have to be blind not to see it. This summer’s activity will be people trying to move across the market while they still can. I don’t expect to see anything more than a few percentage points price changing through the summer (normal for what we’ve witnessed over the past 6 months or so) but come October no one will be able to ignore the changes and the inevitable rush to the exits will ensue. Much like what is happening in Vancouver right now.
Update: Thought I'd show you all that sale on May 6, only because it's beautiful.
Original price $270K, sale price $225,000, for a 17% reduction.