Friday, June 27, 2008

Prediction thread

The timing of this latest article is interesting. Could it be that June numbers are going to be shocking coming out of the VREB?

TD Economics released a report yesterday declaring the housing boom is over. Yet housing starts are still up YOY, shocking many RE pundits into declaring that if the builders are building they still see profits to be had. So the market can’t be going down can it?

If bread gets cheaper next week, will Wonder suddenly stop making it?

It’s time for predictions. What will the June VREB numbers look like? I think we’ll see:

  • higher listings in the range of 10-15% MOM, but reported as less than that cumulatively YOY
  • increased sales from May 2008, but lower than June 2007 by roughly 20%
  • lower average and median prices, both around minus 1-2% MOM, but remaining in the 10-11% YOY range

I’m guessing Tony et al will choose to spin this as the market remains balanced. Which it is. For now at least.

Selected quotes from the article linked above:

"For people hoping home values will be plummeting any time in the future, I don't think that's going to be happening any time soon." – funny that Joe is even acknowledging our voice exists. We must be getting louder.
Joe said the market has been cool so far in 2008, but he was quick to point out that comes in comparison to 2007 which he considered an "exceptionally busy year when we exceeded all the numbers." Except when you compare sales numbers from May 2006, to May 2007, you see only a slight increase, record
levels none-the-less, but not “exceptionally busy” in comparison.

"The cooling-off period is not unique to this region, and not to the province of B.C. -- the North American economy as a whole has seen a dramatic change in market value in the past year," said Landcor president Rudy Nielsen.

"Speculation, both from investors and homeowners expecting a major financial payoff, makes housing more volatile than other economic sectors," said Nielsen.

"Recently consumer confidence has dwindled, causing the market to correct. This is the normal real estate cycle and this is what we're seeing throughout B.C."

Emphasis mine. Your predictions in comments.

160 comments:

Anonymous said...

i would predict that the sales of June will decrease from May, not increase.

sitting pretty (the original) said...

I think we’ll see ... lower average and median prices, both around minus 1-2% MOM, but remaining in the 10-11% YOY range I’m guessing

It makes no sense to celebrate a drop in prices MOM while acknowledging a rise in prices YOY. Think of it this way: if, in June 2009, prices are 5% higher than in June 2008, but 2% lower than May 2009, you bears will be happy, right?

hhv said...

Nobody's celebrating anything SP. We're making predictions. I am happy when trends reverse and the trend is negative because that could lead to a continued negative trend downwards back to an affordable level supported by rents. This, I believe, is what is happening in 2008. And I would suspect that in June 2009, the YOY number will be more like 10-15% lower than June 2008.

greg said...

sfh sales were the only bright spot in the May report - they came in at a fairly robust 441 units, a big jump from March and April, while everything else tanked.

I think this number is going to be down again for June. Try 400 or 380 or so. Listings have increased about 100 or so in the past month - not a sign of any increased sales, but rather the reverse.

My predictions?

Median of $530,000, Average of $570,000 for SFH. Sales of 380-400.

Median of $280,000 for condos. Sales of around 180.

Median of $380,000 for townhouses. Sales of around 60

Will that be close? Hmm, I'll go out on a limb and predict total unit sales in the 650-700 range - a drop of 200 or so from last June.

Does that get us to the Bengal in July?

B2B said...

The trend is indeed negative and the all-important consumer sentiment is rapidly deteriorating. The MSM has already changed tack - the TC says "bust" and the G&M today admits that Canada lags US by 2 years. The stock markets are looking incredibly shaky.

Consumers here are running on fumes and have only construction-related good times to point to, but are in debt up to their eyeballs. "Everyone wants to live here" is the only card left, and I think it's getting old. Some humility about this pleasant but small and economically irrelevant city is long overdue.

I don't know the numbers well enough to make predictions, but I think this party is ending sooner rather than later. I predict the first drops in prices by say 6 months from now due to stickiness. Full US-mode downturn by 2009 or so.

talus said...

TD Economics released a report yesterday declaring the housing boom is over. Yet housing starts are still up YOY, shocking many RE pundits into declaring that if the builders are building they still see profits to be had. So the market can’t be going down can it?

We may have discussed this already...

Supply Chain Game - Play online
http://forio.com/resources/bullwhips-and-beer/

The problem turns out to be one of coordination. Suppliers, manufacturers, sales people, and customers have their own, often incomplete, understanding of what real demand is. Each group has control over only a part of the supply chain, but each group can influence the entire chain by ordering too much or too little. Further, each group is influenced by decisions that others are making.

Anonymous said...

I've seen no sold signs recently on the "million dollar" homes in and around Oak Bay, etc. Coupled with all the reductions seen on PCS, methinks there should be a significant MOM average price drop. Maybe even 10%. Who knows? That would the shocker which would really get the ball rolling.

Ryan said...

My perception is that we're lagging Vancouver. We haven't seen the jump in listings or the dip in sales that they have. Victoria's MOI was still pretty low in May, so it's possible the market hasn't turned here yet. Regardless, I don't think the median price will drop in June. I'd expect that to happen a month or two after our MOI jumps up above 7.

Dave said...

I agree Ryan. Supply isn't up that much in Victoria compared to Vancouver. There isn't much downward pressure on prices to date. The MOI will have to grow for that to happen.

Mata Hari said...

Here are some reductions ($500k-$700k). Question: were these overpriced to begin with, or is excrement hitting the fan? You decide:

MLS# OLD PRICE NEW PRICE DOM
248668 659,900 644,900 1(?)
247211 699k 679k 29
245805 649 638 50
247805 579 569 17
246344 530 519 42
246934 534 519 30
242586 557 522 109
245761 569 529 50
245734 549 529 52
246956 563 540 30
248403 558 544 7
247764 559 549 17
247665 578 549 18
247979 589 548 17
243502 638 570 87
245934 609 579 48
244902 609 579 64
246732 629 589 34
242552 638 599 107
247795 625 599 16
245094 649 599 60
244634 625 599 67
244441 645 618 72
245405 659 619 63
246376 639 619 42
243354 650 625 90
246144 659 639 45

Mata Hari said...

BTW, If anyone is interested in seeing reductions on THs, condos, SFHs (300k-500k), let me know

beagle said...

I don't think we'll see anything shocking. Prices may trend a little lower especially given the time of year, but so far there isn't enough inventory or a big seller stress reason for a big drop. More months of high consumer prices, job losses, falling stock markets and eroding buyer sentiment should slowly push the market towards a downward move. So far there are not enough have to sell people in the SFH market yet.

boomer said...

yup beagle

I call lower sales jun than may in all 3 categories with not much price change.
The possibility of real long term price declines is just starting to sink in with the great unwashed.

patriotz said...

It makes no sense to celebrate a drop in prices MOM while acknowledging a rise in prices YOY.

YOY means year over year. I.E. prices were higher than a year ago.

Now consider this hypothetical example:

Jun 2007: 400K
Sep 2007: 500K
Dec 2007: 600K
Mar 2008: 510K
Jun 2008: 410K

That's a YOY increase in prices. It's also a bust.

Print out any RE price chart from here and look at the geometry.

You don't get YOY declines until about 6 months into the bust. I thought that's kind of obvious, but I guess not to everyone.

S2 said...

My husband was living in Vancouver during the correction in the 1980s and tonight he was telling me about some of what went on there at that time. It was a real shocking eye opener for me.

Would anyone else who lived through the correction of the
1980s have any experiences or remembrances they would care to share?

I think us youngish :) people really have no idea what is coming down the pike.

womp said...

I have to disagree with Ryan and Dave here. I'd say we've had a bigger run up in inventory than Vancouver has, relatively, and that we are at an extremely significant inventory level already.

They have about 6 times our population, and looking at the numbers on my most recent blog post, we're already way ahead in per capita inventory. We added 1850 listings last month - equivalent to over 11k listings in Vancouver on a per capita basis. We're on track to add another 500 in June.

How would you categorize that as "supply isn't up as much"? I'd say we're blowing them out of the water. Our 20 listings additions per day is right on track with Vancouver's 120 listings per day.

What we are lagging in is sales decline, but here's the scenario. With May's rate of sales, we're at over 6 months of overall inventory (11 in condos). If sales decline or stay flat in June, MOI will advance to well over 7 months very shortly.

Dave still hasn't bothered to explain on Greg's blog why he thinks condos are balanced at 11 MOI. I have yet to read anywhere that 11 MOI of anything indicates anything but a buyer's market.

vg said...

All one has to look at is the amount of price decreases on listings in the past month,the trend is down and these aren't being listed like back in January, they are changes made 2-3 weeks after first listed.
Wether it takes 3 months or 6 months who cares, at some point in the near future the numbers YOY will turn negative and sitting ugly can stew and whine now that us minions will now see a chance at affordability in this town. Strange when people wish ill will for something so basic to one's life as four walls and a roof.

Anonymous said...

I wonder whether all these RE bulls are cheering the rise in the price of gas. Shouldn't they?

VillageBC said...

I wonder whether all these RE bulls are cheering the rise in the price of gas. Shouldn't they?

I'm cheering the rise of gas. But for selfish reasons. I want a nice cheap 94 Supra TT for less then $15k.

Then I need gas prices to drop afterwards so I can afford to drive it home. =) But I'm not a RE bull.

Anonymous said...

As long as I keep printing my "LEGAL TENDER TISSUE PAPER DOLLARS" and keep interest rates artificialy low, things will remain status quo in the short term.

WOW...I love fiat currency!!!:)

Central Banker

patriotz said...

Would anyone else who lived through the correction of the 1980s have any experiences or remembrances they would care to share?

I was stunned. RE went from "can't lose" to a complete disaster in about a year.

All over Vancouver there were partially finished developments where the builders had just walked away. Holes in the ground, bare foundations, partially framed buildings. Some of them sat that way for years. Out by 29th and Nanaimo there was about a 1/2 block of half-finished houses that just sat there. I don't remember if they were ever finished or if they were torn down.

Lots of foreclosures too when a flip went wrong or an owner lost his job due to the recession.

Seeing something like that is a better education then you will ever get in a classroom. People were saying the same things back then too. The very same lines - the rich immigrants, buy now before it's too late, running out of land, Expo / Olympics, etc.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice - nope.

Dave said...

Dave still hasn't bothered to explain on Greg's blog why he thinks condos are balanced at 11 MOI. I have yet to read anywhere that 11 MOI of anything indicates anything but a buyer's market

Where do you get your 11 from? It looks like 7.5 MOI to me.

beagle said...

Would anyone else who lived through the correction of the
1980s have any experiences or remembrances they would care to share?


I was 20 years old in 1983. I remember huge unemployment. Only around 1/2 my friends had a job. There were many unfinished projects scattered around Victoria. The place on Blanchard near Hillside now a old folks home called the Wellsley was hole in the ground for years. many average people got burned building something they called spec homes, where every average joe was trying to be a developer. But like musical chairs when the music stopped...many people lost there shirt because overnight no one wanted their brand new houses so they either had to pay the mortgage on an empty house, rent it way cheaper than the mortgage or sell for a big loss. hhmmmm..kinda sounds like our condos of today. History does rhyme. I personally new one guy who flipped several houses but after the crash had to sell because of a divorce (which was quite prevalent in that time) and lost $40,000 , a lot of money in the early 80's.
But on the bright side life went on and the majority muddled through it. I definitely learned valuable life lessons about money and debt.

vg said...

"Would anyone else who lived through the correction of the 1980s have any experiences or remembrances they would care to share?

I was stunned. RE went from "can't lose" to a complete disaster in about a year."


It was shocking how fast it went down and this spring has the exact eerily similar feel in the air.
I was downtown yesterday walking by all these half developed condos and recalled in 82 how there were so many half built condos that just shut down overnite and sat there for a couple of years til the got finished off. Those who think it can't happen here best wake up now.

vg said...

"I personally new one guy who flipped several houses but after the crash had to sell because of a divorce (which was quite prevalent in that time) and lost $40,000 , a lot of money in the early 80's."


I also recall a couple of flippers who got burned bad for a similar amount AFTER the crash when you think it would be a breeze to capitalize. They thought they got such a deal but when they shelled out the cash to fix it all up it got deeper than planned. Even 2 years after the crash there were no buyers lining up cause jobs were tough and lending rules even tighter and they got hosed for like $60,000 plus in the end which was a huge chunk of change then.

Anonymous said...

This thing is far from over. My neighbour just sold their home quite easily. My house continues to gain in value due to the nice weather and nice lawn. It's a great place to be!

beagle said...

Just a thought. POT. This is one major industry of BC that never gets talked about because its so hard to quantify, but it must have some sort of effect on real estate and the economy. It's my theory that the pot industry must be going down hill. First the high Canadian dollar must hurt, second US slow down, third higher energy prices and fourth a conservative government that is against it. If it is taking a large dip in it's profits then that would be a good chunk of tax free money ripped out of the BC economy.

Anonymous said...

Of course the pot biz is going downhill. Despite all the Big Tobacco propaganda to the contrary (because they want to unlock a huge new smoking market to genocide), chain pot smoking babyboomers are dying by the millions from all kinds of cancers and heart disease. Smoking anything is poisonous. Pot just doesn't as yet have the extra added carcinogens that tobacco has by mass factory production. Linda McCartney, George Harrison, the list of super famous victims goes on and on and wakes people up. Even some younger people are for the first time in their lives using common sense. I'm not anti-pot as long as you use it healthfully, and that means not setting it on fire. Get that through people's heads and you'll get somewhere. As long as a product used in a certain way is killing people, even if it takes a lifetime to do it, it's going to decline. But it in food, put it in a pill, anything but smoke it.

Back in the 60's boomers had the excuse that there were no adults around dying from it who'd done it their entire lives. Today's kids do not have that particular excuse.

Anonymous said...

Of course the pot biz is going downhill. Despite all the Big Tobacco propaganda to the contrary (because they want to unlock a huge new smoking market to genocide), chain pot smoking babyboomers are dying by the millions from all kinds of cancers and heart disease. Smoking anything is poisonous. Pot just doesn't as yet have the extra added carcinogens that tobacco has by mass factory production. Linda McCartney, George Harrison, the list of super famous victims goes on and on and wakes people up. Even some younger people are for the first time in their lives using common sense. I'm not anti-pot as long as you use it healthfully, and that means not setting it on fire. Get that through people's heads and you'll get somewhere. As long as a product used in a certain way is killing people, even if it takes a lifetime to do it, it's going to decline. Put it in food, put it in a pill, anything but smoke it.

Back in the 60's boomers had the excuse that there were no adults around dying from it who'd done it their entire lives. Today's kids do not have that particular excuse.

womp said...

Sure, if you look at MLS.ca, there's 7.5 months of inventory. But the spread between MLS.ca and PCS is about 1.5, meaning that for every 2 listings on MLS.ca, there's another listing that didn't make it.

MLS.ca is just an advertising channel, it's not an MLS system. So if that's what you're using to guess your MOI's, I would say that you're off by about 50%.

womp said...

So...again... how's 11 months of anything balanced?

Anonymous said...

An example of when 11 months of inventory may be considered balanced is the NEW condominium or NEW home market.

These properties may be listed for sale before construction has started. Remember, you can't get ownership of a property until it has a legal title, and you may only get a title registered at the land titles office when the construction has been completed.

So, if it takes 6 months to a year to build this would shift the typical re-sale market balance of 3to 6 months to 9 to 15 months or what ever it is.

In order to get a useful MOI, I would suggest that new and re-sale properties be calculated separately.

just jack

womp said...

I'm not sure I understand your logic. Are you saying that VREB lists new, under construction properties on PCS, but doesn't count their sales in the stats (i.e. they count listings but not sales?) Or are you saying that the new and resale MOI are completely seperate, and that they have totally disparate pools of buyers?

If I have 7 months of resale inventory, and 4 months of under construction, no-title inventory, how is that different from 11 months of resale inventory and zero months of new inventory? There's still X amount of condos to be consumed. If you can't report the sale because it has no title, how does that shift the resale market at all? It's neither inventory nor a sale. Six months down the road, they don't all of a sudden all count as inventory if they've been sold.

Some clarification please?

Anonymous said...

The point is that MOI or no MOI this market is hot hot hot as the weather. We simply cannot build these condos and homes fast enough with all the asians, rich albertans and americans buying them. My friend just sold their house in one day. It's a hot hot market.

boomer said...

anon.
subtle sarcasm ,I presume

Anonymous said...

Should hypothetical (not built) condominiums be included in order to estimate an acurate MOI?

If the building is not to be completed for two years, why should this be included in the current MOI calculation. Unless, you specifically want to look a proposed construction. Is putting a deposit down on a building to be finished in two years is that truly a sale or is it just an option to purchase? An option that may or may not be exercised?

What I have found, is that if you include non completed complexes. The MOI becomes skewed. If you look just at new (which includes proposed) then you would have a MOI of say 11. If you look at re-sale only then you get a much lower MOI of 4 to 5. If you combine both then it is around 6.

Typically, an MOI between 3 to 6 months indicates a balanced market. An MOI of less than 3 would be a sellers (bull) market with increasing prices. And an MOI greater than 6 would be a buyers (bear) market which leads declining prices.

However, an MOI of 11 for new complexes might be balanced when you consider that most people may only be willing to buy in a new building when the project is nearing completion. Which may be 6 months to a year or more from when the property was originally listed for sale.

The issue then becomes one of which is more correct or more importantly which is more usefull in predicting a drop in prices.

Consequently, I look at the new and re-sale market as being separate from each other as they are not similar in terms of immediate or near immediate occupancy.


just jack

olives said...

Here's a prediction from the Central Banker's Club:

Global Economy Faces Deep Slowdown:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/30/cnbis130.xml

Anonymous said...

Garth's predicting a 10-15% correction BY THE END OF THIS YEAR and into spring of 2009, MORE in the markets where there were quick rises.

I predict 20-30% at minimum here by this time next year (as Victoria rose higher and faster than any other market), could be as high as 40-50% by the end of next year and into 2010.

Of course, if the US dollar and markets completely collapse as many European banks are predicting and betting, everything happens even quicker.

Bears going to be hunting and eating a lot of beef around here, and soon.

Ryan said...

Womp,

Don't lump me in with Dave, even though he agrees with me. I'm just saying that with MOI of 4.6 (according to Cheaprealty's numbers from June 27) we're still technically in a balanced market. Until our MOI gets up above 7 I don't want to try to predict when we'll see MOM or YOY price declines.

I personally think the top is in, but until sales drop off a cliff or listings double, we're still in a similar position to previous years when we were thinking maybe this time it'll crash, and then it didn't. I doubt Victoria is insulated enough to lag Vancouver by a whole year, but I do think we're behind by a couple months at least.

Anonymous said...

Predicting how low prices will go is just as impossible as it was in predicting how high prices would go in 2000.


But what the heck, just for fun how about:

I predict that the amount of people buying a home to live in will fall to such low levels that prices will free fall until they reach the point where investors are willing to buy for the rental income, less expenses and with a return on equity of not less than the rate of inflation.

So if the house rents for $1,300 and money is at 6% then that property would trade around $175,000. Currently, a property like this trades at $375,000, so roughly I predict a 50 percent drop.

But, I'm not waiting for the bottom. I will buy when it makes sense for me. When the property I want in the neighbourhood I like meets a target value that I have determined that will not put financial stress on my family. And that target value is different for everyone of us.


just jack

olives said...

"So if the house rents for $1,300 and money is at 6% then that property would trade around $175,000. Currently, a property like this trades at $375,000, so roughly I predict a 50 percent drop."

This is interesting to me because my rent is $1,300 and the house is assessed at about $550,000. hmmmm...

greg said...

A possible reasonable rental/ownership metric -

How about taking 32% of gross income, and take the median family income ($72,000) as a sort of reasonable limit for the local inhabitants to rent/buy without lots of equity involvement?

$72,000 or so multipled by 32% divided by 12 gives me $1920 as a reasonable monthly payment for the median family income.

So a likely floor for prices could be based on something like a $1900/$2000 per month payment, if you think incomes have any influence in a downturn.

Extrapolate from whatever the interest rate is at the time and you start to see a target price for the median family home.

Based on a current 5 year rate of 6.1% or so, I get something like $330,000 - $350,000 as a target price with 10% down.

When you look at a lot of charts, $350,000 also looks like a likely nominal price "floor" if prices go down.

Hmmmm. What do you think?

Anonymous said...

family income $72,000 is before tax, monthly payment $1,900 is after tax. it is not reasonable.

if you have a $72,000 income, how much would you get on your account?
about 70% after taaaaaxxxx.

so, 70% of $72,000, then 30%, dived by 12, it woulc be $1.260/mon.

greg said...

Measurement of what is affordable for a mortgage is based on gross income. That's why I'm using that amount as an analogous payment for targeting median family home prices here.

Anonymous said...

Well this is starting to look interesting.

So what do you think a first time buyers income is, middle income households and upper income is?

My guesses are:

Say a first time home buyer is $50,000 to $71,999

Middle Income 72,000 to 94,999

Upper income 95000 to $150,000


and if we match the home to the income:

starter home being an older one storey home in Victoria which is currently selling for about $400,000


Middle income home in Gordon Head at about $600,000

Bear Mountain McMansion at $800,000


How much would each of these homes have to decline to, in order for the typical income match the home.

olives said...

IMO $1,900 for housing is unreasonably high for a family with only a $72,000 income.

Anonymous said...

We are in the upper income range and we can't afford a nice house in this town. Come on correction.

greg said...

Olives -

on a personal level I agree with you - but that's what a mortgage broker is allowed to go to - no more than 40% total debt service ratio and no more than 32% on the mortgage payment - based on gross income.

Anonymous said...

A 32 percent debt service ratio may be fine for lending purposes, but everyone should consider their own level of comfort. Personally, I would find 25% of my income going to a mortgage more acceptable than 32 percent. And, I would never want to pay more than $2,500 per month (with out a suite) on a mortgage.

Life's too short - to waste it on a mortgage.


just jack

Village said...

Theoretically, the more you make the less restricted you are in what you can put toward your house. Your other expenses, food, gas, car and to a lesser extent electricity don't scale with your income. Your wants may, but your needs don't.

greg said...

anon at 3:45 wrote:

How much would each of these homes have to decline to, in order for the typical income match the home.

I would say...

...the starter needs to drop from $400,000 down to around $330,000 to $350,00 - based on the top end of your lower income ratio ($72000)- this gives a $1900 to $2000/month payment with 10% down

...The middle income needs to drop from $600,000 down to around $440,000 - based on the top of the middle range of the middle income range($95,000)- this gives approximately a $2500/month payment with 10% down.

...the upper income house needs to drop from around $800,000 down to around $650,000 - based on the top of the upper income range ($150,000) - this gives approximately a $4000/month payment with 10% down.

I guess-timated using 25 year amortization and 6% interest on a 5 year rate for these examples.

Without paper equity bonanzas to draw on, these are the prices Victorians can afford.

As we know the median income is the income half of Victorians earn equal or less than, it stands to reason less than half of Victorians can afford a house at more than $350,000 tops.

That's my target price for any correction. When the median hits around $350,000, you can figure that any drop is almost over.

Higher interest rates will of course drive these price numbers lower, just as low interest rates inflated them in the past.

patriotz said...

Anon and olives, you are correct. RE bear markets fall until prices hit rent equivalence. The reason is simple - if prices are flat or falling, investors get no return except from the rent, so rental income must exceed monthly expenses. And if investors aren't buying, prices must fall until they do. They account for too large a proportion of owners and sales.

This was true for the market bottoms in the 80's and 90's.

This is also the reason why US markets have not hit bottom yet. No reason for anyone with sense to buy until it's cheaper than renting.

Anonymous said...

An excellent article on the US situation (and soon ours):

http://tinyurl.com/4ewnul

womp said...

Paul B just posted some numbers for June for Vancouver.

Sales down 41%, inventory up 53% for Greater Van, 113% for NVan.

patriotz said...

inventory up 113% for NVan

But but but... I thought that's where all the rich people who pay cash live. What happened?

Oh I know. They've all decided to move to Victoria. That's the ticket.

Anonymous said...

Hi fools: now the market is balanced,there will be more investors from US and Asian to come,we are still cheaper than city of Heven,the return on RE is 300% for the last 3 years. Quick, quick, buy, buy or you will be priced out.

i don't know who is the fool

Anonymous said...

For those suggesting a 50% drop...well, never mind.

As long as there remains a line up of 100+ people willing to pay $1,200 for a basement suite, there will remain a willigness among buyers to pay $500K+ for an average SFH. As soon as prices do start to drop, people will move in from the sidelines: renters, investors, and people moving here / wanting to move here. There is no lack of demand.

I predict there will be a slight real drop - say 5%, immeasureable because of all of the currently over-priced homes and cloudy inflation figures, which will be followed by another price frenzy starting mid - late next Spring.

The line-ups are still there for appropriately priced SF homes.

patriotz said...

If people are lining up to pay $1,200 for a basement suite, how come there are so many places advertised in the TC, craigslist, etc. for as low as $450/month?

As for all that "pent-up demand" that's supposed to be waiting for a 5% drop, that's what they were saying in the US too. Guess what happened?

What is so special about Victoria that there are supposed to be all these buyers who are going to jump in at a 5% drop? Sure didn't happen south of the border did it? Or in Alberta.

Oh one more thing - the US, and thus BC, is headed into a major recession. Now what impact do you think that will have on Victoria payrolls? (See: Bennett, Bill).

Here's the real story. Once prices start dropping, there's no reason to buy unless the rental value of the house is at least as high as the cost of ownership. That's what sets the floor for RE bear markets as has been shown here and everywhere else.

And that's a long way down from where we are now.

There's going to be a "price frenzy" in the spring all right, but not in the direction you think.

But if you don't believe me, why don't you go out and buy right now? There's lots of selection and the realtors have plenty of time to spend on you.

boomer said...

"the realtors have plenty of time to spend on you."

and to post denial messages here

womp said...

Care to back up your "line ups of 100+ people" statement up with some facts? I have real trouble believing that based on my recent experience.

When we sold our condo and went looking for a rental at the beginning of May, we had four landlords call us back out of 5 places we put in applications at, and I turned down the first three (too expensive, reeked of smoke, and too expensive). So either we're magically the perfect tenants for 80% of landlords, or maybe they didn't have 100 choices?

greg said...

Here are 58 basement suite listings from the last couple months on Craigslist. the vast majority are well below $1200/per month.

olives said...

We have had no problem finding great rental houses at very good prices either.

I have a question for anyone, or perhaps a realtor - a friend of mine is currently listed with One Percent Realty, and a realtor from Remax, who has had their client look at the house twice now keeps stressing that he wants his full commission, threatening that he will refuse to bring his clients to their house a third time (obviously they want to look at it again). What are other other people's experience with this type of thing? Is it appropriate for a realtor to make this type of a threat? Is he acting in the best interest of his clients?

greg said...

olives -

the point of 1% realty is the listing sales person generally doesn't split the commission with a "Buyers agent".

If a Remax Realtor took people there a couple times without arranging his compensation with the 1% guy, its not the sellers problem. The 1% realtor should contact those individuals (if he can) and deal with them directly.

Sounds like the buyer's realtor is trying to extort additional commissions from the sellers.

He may have leverage if there hasn't been any other interest and he has kept his clients contact details to himself. But who needs to deal with a weasel like that? Unless the price is going up to cover the additional costs, why bother?

Better to drop the house price by the same amount the realtor is trying to extort, and see if that draws any other interest....

Anonymous said...

"people moving here / wanting to move here"

Sure, that's why our population is smaller the London Ont, Oshawa and/or Halifax.

And yes, we have NHL, CFL etc professional sports and don't forget all the Broadway shows, opera, leading department stores, zoos, museums, etc

And of course, all the investors of the world including Albertans moving into Phoenix, Las Vegas, Florida has no impact here.

You stupid fool. Prices in Victoria will more than drop 50%, maybe 70% to be in line with prices in comparable sized cities in Canada (Halifax) and competitive with pricing where Albertans are now buying (as confirmed by Ozzie) such as Phoenix where SFHs sells for $150K.

Anonymous said...

And we also have direct flight to over 400 cities in the world. NOT!

Anonymous said...

"people moving here / wanting to move here"

That's funny. My son who just completed his electrical engineering degree at UVic has landed a job in Calgary. He tells me that most if not all of his classmates are moving out as well. They are moving where the jobs are, for engineers anyway, Ottawa, Calgary, Winnipeg, Halifax, but apparently none in Victoria.

Why would anyone "want to move here" if they are no jobs. Sure we have low employment, but most of those jobs are for folks who have no education (retail, construction, rickshaw pedal person, etc).

olives said...

Thanks Greg.
My thought was that the realtor should tell his clients that he refuses to represent them if they choose to look at and/or put an offer on the house as in his opinion he is not receiving appropriate compensation for his services. In that case the buyers can either choose to drop him and look for someone else who will represent them (or not) or compensate him directly.

I understand the 1 percent realtor told the Remax agent that they should put in the offer, asking for whatever compensation they want, and in that case the seller can negotiate with the buyer on this item directly.

I'd be interested in knowing what a realtor thinks about this - and what the usual procedure is in this type of situation.

patriotz said...

In that case the buyers can either choose to drop him and look for someone else who will represent them (or not) or compensate him directly

The buyers can simply deal directly with the listing agent, unless they were stupid enough to sign a contract with a "buyer's agent" who is paid by sales commission and thus in no way represents the interests of the buyers.

Under no circumstances, ever, should anyone sign a contract with a "buyer's agent". They are not representing the interests of the buyer. They are representing themselves and the seller, in that order.

greg said...

Olives -

I'm looking around and refuse to sign a buyers rep deal, but there is a realtor who has arranged a few showings for me. Once it was for a one percent place, and he said he couldn't show it unless we made an agreement to compensate him additionally.

I don't care about him splitting commissions with a listing salesperson, and I'm happy to do that if he's happy to work that way, but in the case I mentioned, I would have just bypassed him and gone directly to the agent.

Even without the listing # or the name of the listing salesperson, its not hard to go to the 1% site and look at their listings until you find the one you're interested in.

Too bad for the so-called "buyers agent" in that situation, but why would I proceed any other way? I'm not that desparate to buy any particular house that I would agree to cough up thousands extra in commission incentives.

Anonymous said...

Maybe Carla Wilson could write an article about this specific case where a buyer's agent refuses to represent the interest of the buyer. I recommend the sellers bring this into the public forum and contact the newspapers, television to run a story on this.

boomer said...

"I recommend the sellers bring this into the public forum and contact the newspapers, television to run a story on this."

additionally phone (VREB president) Tony Joe and see what his position is--probably should do this first

Anonymous said...

What's taking so long to release the June numbers? They must finessing the voice over.

womp said...

Haha - they have to get the intonations on "balanced" correct!

Seriously though, they're not usually out until later in the day if I remember the last few releases correctly. Probably around 2:30 would be my guess.

Anonymous said...

Does that "buyer's agent" who does not represent the buyers' interest, also charge for a fuel surcharge?

What a joke these greedy RE agents.

sitting pretty (the original one) said...

I've got my DEPENDS ready in case the numbers are bad. My mortgage helper downstairs has made my life miserable and is not paying his rent. I can hear his voice carry through the floor all time and he plays loud awful music all hours of the night. He smokes when he said he wouldn't and now threatens to kick me out of my house. This is the last time I will have renters. So much for the promise of mortgage relief, I have the notion to walk away from it all.

Anonymous said...

By the way. I was reading that the real estate in Somalia is way undervalued. It is the next Saskaboom. They have the best climate in the world, no snow or rain and daily Pirates of the Indain ocean shows.

Another place undervalued is Ussbeckkeestan. They have oil and beautiful mountains. Like heaven.

Tootless frum Lanferd said...

A boddie of myne wis at the Kanada Dayz celebrations in Otawa. 1/2 milion turizts showed up. Anicdoctorrally, everyone was whizppering aBout the condos they had juz bot in Ottawa. Ottawa prizes have tripled overnite.

Anonymous said...

I'm a realtor. I'll answer Olive's questions:

The buyers should dump their blue/red/white RE agent. His duty under Canada's laws of Agency is to put his clients' interests ahead of his own, even if it means earning less money on a house sale. This is true whether or not the clients have signed a buyer's agency contract with him.

They could either approach the listing realtor directly or retain another buyer's agent.

Going directly to the listing agent - when it's a value-based listing agency - will mean the most negotiating room with the sellers, because they'll be paying, at most, 1% of the listing price to their agent.

However, employing a full-priced buyer's agent - to address Olive's other question - usually means the buyer's agent will ask of the seller a commission that is more like 3% on the first $100K of the selling price and 1.5% on the balance. So the sellers, if they agree to that commission - are now on the hook for that 3%/1.5% to the buyer's agent, and half of the original 1% to the listing agent.

But I also want to address Patriotz' amateur legal advice to "Under no circumstances, ever, should anyone sign a contract with a "buyer's agent". They are not representing the interests of the buyer. They are representing themselves and the seller, in that order.

You're wrong. Buyer's agents, regardless of whether the client signs a buyer's agency contract, represent the buyer under the law. This has been true for at least 10 years. You need to update your legal knowledge before spouting off and misleading people.

Whether, in practice, they opt to put their own interests ahead of the buyer's (as implied by Olive's anecdote) I have no doubt.

Complaining to the real estate board will get you absolutely nowhere.

I have been on the other end of Olive's story. A listing agent working for the red/white/blue company refused to present my purchase offer to his client unless I agreed, as the buyer's agent, to cough up half my commission. My clients had wandered into an open house unescorted by me one day and, two weeks and much searching later, decided they'd buy that house after all. So the red/white/blue company figured it was entitled to the commission under the concept that it was the "effective producer of the sale."

Under duress, i agreed to the haircut because I wanted my clients to get the house. I followed up with a letter of complaint to the board using language similar to the word Greg used in his post to describe Olive's buyer's agent.

The board decided it was more offended by my use of the adjective than it was by the red/white/blue company's tactics that clearly - and I mean clearly - violated laws of agency and the RE industry's own phoney-baloney ethics code.

So don't waste your time. The board isn't interested.

Tootless frum Lanferd said...

I bot tis cumputor tudy after sailin my mobille home. I'm luuking to by a cundo now in lanford

Anonymous said...

Olives,

What is the name of the Remax agent. Tell us so that none of us ever use him/her in the future.

olives said...

anon realtor - wow. Do you think that is the individual listing realtor, or is it the r/w/b policy?

my friend might think of calling Carla at TC directly once this is all over.

olives said...

The house is not in Victoria, by the way.

sitting pretty (the original) said...

The wait is intolerable. I'm going to poop if I have to wait any longer. I need to know how much more my investment is worth this month.

Anonymous said...

Sales must be so bad that the VREB can longer pay for their clerks (who of course do not require a university degree)to format their June results report.

Maybe soon we will hear that the VREB will be dissolved. I feel sorry for all these real estate agents who will have to retrain to fill all those jobs in Victoria working in cleaning dying seniors or cleaning dirty hotel rooms. After all, noboby wants to move from here to where the real jobs are.

They're also in for a surprise, as they no longer will be able to expense their BMW's or expense lunch or dinners they've taken with their families (pretending that these were meals with clients).

greg said...

anonyomous at 2:21 - "Realtor"

Wow, thanks for the detailed and open-mided explanation to Olives. It opened my eyes to the process. Thanks for that.

On another note, past 4 O'Clock and no VREB report - I think they are trying to "miss" the deadline for the morning TC, maybe?

Either that, or they just hired a new public relations firm to take over the spin on the report, maybe?

Anonymous said...

I just get the beer ready, thinking how creative they will be to manipulate the numbers: many people are selling to buy bigger house, we are still healthy, everybody laid off by GM, coffee shops will move to here, blaaa

Anonymous said...

Victoria is the sun capital of the world and everyone wants to be here for the fishing and the view of the inner harbour. Anecdotally I was at the Canada day event on the gorge this weekend and every other person was American and wanted to buy condos. They were all saying : "where's the condos? Huh? where are they? Can I get one?". Apparently there was a huge lineup to look at the falls presentation center and the juliet this weekend too. This activity was a BEAR KILLER.

Anonymous said...

I was at the Canada Day fireworks yesterday. It seemed that the only thing all the 12 and 13 year old kids had on their minds was the condos they just bought on 500 year mortgages that they'll pay with their $10 weekly allowance.

Anonymous said...

I was in Fort McMurray at their ATV rust bucket days. All the rich Asians were there snapping up all the mobile homes. Life is great.

Anonymous said...

I was in St John's at the fish markets. There millions of Americans buying and snapping every piece of Newfoundland shoreline.

Anonymous said...

Halifax is the banana belt of the country. Everybody wants to move there. There are 25+ direct flights to ALL the major cities in the US and Europe. Everybody is buying in Nova Scotia. Land is already worth $50 million per acre.

Anonymous said...

Now this is no BS. The reason the were no adults at the fireworks in Victoria is because they have joined Albertans, Vancouverites, Ontarians, etc in Phoenix and Las Vegas to buy SFHs with inground pools for $100,000 to $140,000.

Village said...

The wait is intolerable. I'm going to poop if I have to wait any longer. I need to know how much more my investment is worth this month.

Have I mentioned how pathetic and immature individual you are whoever is the hijacking sitting pretty's. It's the kind of antics reserved for elementary school yards.

I may pretty much disagree with her(?) opinions. But I'd rather have hear the dissenting opinions then chase them off with this drivel.

patriotz said...

Buyer's agents, regardless of whether the client signs a buyer's agency contract, represent the buyer under the law

What the law says and what the money says are two different things.

Suppose someone was suing you. If you hired a lawyer and you found out he was getting paid a % of the judgment against you, would you think he was representing your interests in the lawsuit? Of course not, because the compensation scheme is based on how badly he does, not how well he does. It's the lawyer for the other side who gets paid a % of the judgment. A defense lawyer would end up going to jail or being disbarred if he collected a cut of the judgment.

The interest of the buyer is getting the lowest possible price. The interest of the seller is getting the highest possible price. An "agent" cannot represent the buyers interests if he is being paid a % of the sales price, which aligns his own interests with that of the seller.

I don't see what could be more obvious, but of course ignoring the obvious is part and parcel of the RE business.

sitting pretty said...

Village - Did anyone tell that you don't do justice to your people, the village people. You are starting to sound a bit like a frustrated old queen. Cheer up and enjoy life a bit. Maybe you can also lose a few pounds and color your gray (if you have any) hair and go get lucky there in Beacon Hill park.

Anonymous said...

I think there are people who are hired by...hmmm...certain companies to infiltrate blogs and try to irritate the he11 out of everyone and make the blog seem foolish so that people will stop frequenting them. Yea, good luck with that.

No amount of irritation is going to stop real estate in Victoria from correcting but good try though.

S2

Happy Owner said...

Real Estate correction is a pretty fluid term. Just like, "although listings have increased significantly, prices still have been rising". Or the classic, " We have achieved a BALANCED market". And still we have the BEAR mantra, " I'm not buying until the market drops 50%".

All the standard terms don't really mean shit.

Market segments within the greater victoria market will see greater drops then others. I predicted a 10% drop overall in medium pricing and I still think that is/or has generally happened. A further 10% may be in the cards for the higher end properties but I don't see a lot of distress sales.

I can look around my neck-of-the-woods and I know nothing is selling for less than the owner is willing to let the property go for. If he don't get the price, He ain't sellin'.

I have to think, other than the flippers sucking hind tit, the majority of the Victoria market is more than positioned to deal with any downturn and wait for the right deal to come along.

I gota think though, how are you bears doing with all that cash sitting in stock watching it vaporize with the coming STOCK MARKET correction.

Anonymous said...

"I gota think though, how are you bears doing with all that cash sitting in stock watching it vaporize with the coming STOCK MARKET correction."

Happy Owner - It's called SHORT SELLING. I'm ahead 40% on my investments this year. How about you? Also, I am on board with you cheering for prices to rise. I'm cheering for oil and commodities' prices to go up more. Got a hefty profit in those areas.

Anonymous said...

Happy Owner said... "I gota think though, how are you bears doing with all that cash sitting in stock watching it vaporize with the coming STOCK MARKET correction."

Those of us bears who are shorting have been doing GREAT, thank you very much!

vg said...

you guys miss the VREB numbers ?

Now the guy has to talk about 2007 as if it actually has any bearing on todays market. Wake up Joe, this is 2008 and we are back to January numbers, this is the peak buying itme of the year and the numbers suck. Victoria center median is now $478,000. Stick a fork in it,she's done.



"There was a total of 723 sales of homes and other properties in June through the Victoria Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) compared to the 770 sales in May. Although sales last month were down substantially compared to the 949 sales in June of last year, it is important to remember that 2007 was an exceptional year for the local real estate market."

vg said...

"Happy Owner said... "I gota think though, how are you bears doing with all that cash sitting in stock watching it vaporize with the coming STOCK MARKET correction."

Those of us bears who are shorting have been doing GREAT, thank you very much!"



you got that right, I'm shorting the Nasdaq and own some choice oil plays and I am doin mighty fine thanks !

You buy what does good in a crappy market,if you play the indexes long and all the mainstream stocks in this kind of market and didn't protect yourself then you deserve to get burned listening to the talking heads and not doing your own research.

vg said...

"I can look around my neck-of-the-woods and I know nothing is selling for less than the owner is willing to let the property go for. If he don't get the price, He ain't sellin'."



LOL.... then I guess there will be alot of signs up for a long time in your neck of the woods as they will miss out on their "happy ending". ;)

vg said...

"I have to think, other than the flippers sucking hind tit, the majority of the Victoria market is more than positioned to deal with any downturn and wait for the right deal to come along."


happy owner,

what if the credit crisis woresens and no one can borrow money like they have a money tree in the back yard and the only right deal is 50 % off the top ? don't laugh,she's coming to your neighborhood soon as the next wave hits.

Anonymous said...

kaboom goes SFH prices in Victoria. Wonder how TC will spin this in the morning...

Tony Joe is spinning this to hide the fact that the change in prices has started to occur (therefore the focus on 6 month averages...) instead of real median or high end sales. Took a bit longer than normal to come up with that one. Can't wait for Roger's charts!

Reading the stats, Waterfront and high end aren't selling at all, but there is a fair amount of condos moving.

Went for an out-and-back bike ride along the water from Fairfield to Blenkinsop on the weekend. 65-70 for sale signs, 4-5 sold signs (not counting signs the teenagers knocked over...). Most likely $million +. Good luck sellers - ain't gonna happen.

Are sales of new houses/condos/townhouses booked when the sale is made, or when the owner takes possession - if the latter, it could be the reason the condo sales in areas really jump around and that the $ is still fairly high.

- Dumb Canuck

Anonymous said...

Average sell price for a SFH is now $575K down $50K from two months ago. At this rate, in another 8 months, the average price for a SFH will be $375K. Very good trending. I think I'll be in February or March next year.

Anonymous said...

From peak (SFH, April, 2008)

Median: down 3.6%
Average: down: 7.9%

Only two data points doesn't make a trend - it will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

- dumb canuck

vg said...

"Tony Joe is spinning this to hide the fact that the change in prices has started to occur (therefore the focus on 6 month averages...) "


you got that right, when have we seen the 6 month average ever quoted ? they are running out of excuses. And we have remember 2007 was the year of "if you don't get in now you will be priced out forever" year or as the real world calls it "panic buying by the sheep".

Anonymous said...

Look at the YOY prices.

SFH are basically flat while condos are down 5%! (although June 2007 was a peak for condo prices).

No hiding this.

sitting pretty said...

Damn! Where's roger when we need him? The 2008 median price charts for SFH and condos in Victoria, Saanich East and Langford are still stubbornly floating above the 2007 charts. Not one 2008 data point sits below the corresponding data point from 2007. It's getting so a bear can't keep spinning this as an impending crash.

Note to vg: be careful with that rent money. You shouldn't put it ALL in the stock market.

Anonymous said...

Here's an interesting one. Waterfont 6 month average is $1.3 million. Last month, the average was $710K. That's almost 50% down!! Is this a CRASH? OR WHAT IS IT? HAPPY OWNER, please EXPLAIN. What is going on? HELP?

Where did all the Alberta millionaires, wealthy Asian, Californian surfer billionaire types, Russian mobsters, Somalian warlords, Zimbabwan despots, Hollywood movie stars, Wall Street bankers, Bollywood starlets, British rock stars, NHL players, etc go???

greg said...

Obviously someone at VREB is reading my blog. I noticed they stopped printing the number of million dollar sales this month....

Guess I'll just have to add them up from the detailed report....

vg said...

note to sitting pretty, you shouldn't put all that paycheck into your declining asset.


PS my rental apartment has a million dollar view you can only dream about.

PPS My portfolio is up 400% YOY, how's yours ?

Anonymous said...

It is indeed sad that the world's rich and famous no longer consider Victoria their playground. What with prime waterfront mansions selling for $700,000, who are we kidding. That's a tad too cheap for the jet setter crowd. Then again, there aren't jets that fly from international destinations into Victoria.

Anonymous said...

Hey all you bulls out there. There's a huge investment opportunity. Manufactured homes in Langford sell for $65,000 while in Sidney, they sell for $200,000+. That's a no brainer. Langford has a better climate than Sidney. Buy now and your $65,000 investment is guaranteed to climb rapidly to $200,000+.

Happy Owner said...

Those who peddle statistics are fools...

50% drop in waterfront? You'll never own it so don't show your jealousy.

WOW. Give a bear an inch and they bitch for a mile.

The statistical cherry pickers here will jump on any listing drop to justify a collapse. If I list my half mil property for a million and drop it back to half amil in 2 months, does that constitute a 50% price drop?

Anonymous said...

happy owner,

You are in denial. I own a waterfront property in Florida. I bought it in January. That's where I will spend my winter months, away from Victoria's monsoons. Coincidently I sold my house in Oak Bay the same month. BTW, you sure are not a shrewd investor. You probably don't even know what short selling is. Do you?

original sockpuppet said...

sitting pretty commented:

Damn! Where's roger when we need him?

Last week I made a post that roger's stats and charts were boring and that anecdotes and stories were more interesting. We haven't had any comments from that guy in over a week. I think roger has left the building.

Anonymous said...

Is the original sitting pretty the new sitting pretty? Are these creatures the same as sock pocket or original sockpuppet? Are they the same as the village idiot or happy owner? Are they the last man/woman in the sinking ship? Are they one of the same?

olives said...

I think many people (myself included)really appreciate and look forward to Roger's stats, charts and slideshows. He provides something you don't see on other blogs and we are very lucky to have him. Maybe he is on vacation right now. Roger come back!

Anonymous said...

Let's see if Carla has a good eye for numbers. Maybe she'll pick up on the fact that the multi-million waterfront mansions on our Gold Coast are now selling for $700K, down almost 50% from their 6 month average of $1.4 mil.

I can see the screaming headline: Victoria Waterfront Multi-Million properties DOWN 50% in June!

Maybe not this time, but next month or in September, when the 50%down figure will then apply to ALL SFHs.

Anonymous said...

Carla, you must be burning the midnight oil. If by chance you are looking for inspiration for your article tomorrow, why not have a little bit of fun and SHOCK your editors.

Why not have a headline that reads something like "VICTORIA WATERFRONT AVERAGE PRICE DOWN 50% in JUNE"?
Come on Carla, we know that you read these blogs from time to time. You know that the investors have gone to Phoenix (as Ozzie has confirmed) and RE prices are spiralling down. You will certainly gain respect, credibility and recognition by reporting the facts transparently.

Village said...

Real Estate turns pretty slowly. This year will be all about a balanced market. Next year it'll be all about how we've reached market bottom. Though the ball really won't start rolling until we start seeing foreclosures.

Anyway, a mere 25% correction puts most places I think back in the reasonable price range.

Despite being in "It's different here, Victoria." Canada looks like it's following the US market with just a small 1-2yr delay.

patriotz said...

"I can look around my neck-of-the-woods and I know nothing is selling for less than the owner is willing to let the property go for. If he don't get the price, He ain't sellin'."

Just a little problem here - a lot of sellers have to sell at whatever price they can get. Like estate sales, divorces, job transfers, job losses (of course nobody could ever lose their job in Victoria because the economy is driven by government, tourism, and RE and nobody ever loses their job or gets a pay cut in those sectors).

Oh the developers have to sell too. If a property doesn't sell, guess what they do to get it sold? Take a look south of the border.

And nobody has to buy a house, ever, Nobody.

vg said...

Carla's headline on the front page of the TC :

Real estate : from sizzle to slow boil

on the Business page :
Price cuts cool the sizzle


sitting pretty and happy owner are like ostriches with their heads in the sand, it's game over.

kabloona said...

Yup....Times-Colonist this morning confirming median and average prices have (gasp!)dropped in Victoria. Well, there goes the theory that inventory can rise and sales can fall but prices can never go down (in Paradise!)

VicREBear said...

Tony Joe asserts that at the "right price", "things are being snatched up". I guess Victoria's highly trained and breathtakingly savvy Realtors know that this is only a slight - but healthy! - change from "things" being "snapped up". Oh, to be a Realtor and have such a deep and incisive understanding of these nuances.

Anonymous said...

Did anyone else notice that the European Central Bank shunned the US Fed and raised rates again today? These are truly interesting times!

VicREBear said...

Oh, sorry - I should have spelled it REALTOR. No offense intended for neglecting the regal upper case.

Anonymous said...

vicebear,

No, you should have spelled it REALTOR® (with the trade mark). Don't we all do that these silly things... John Doe MD®, John Doe P Eng®, Jane Doe Nurse®, John Doe Tenant®, etc

boomer said...

Stop that you guys!

"right price" "snapped up" and "snatched up" are highly technical Real Estate industry terms which the great unwashed can not be expected to comprehend fully. In fact the RE industry is replete with many other highly technical terms beyond the ken of us mere mortals. Some other examples: "healthy" "balanced" "robust" "long term" and "great investment"

REALTORs of course usually have at least a high school diploma (or equivalent) AND must pass the grueling exam in order to use these terms in their proper context and to provide their invaluable expert advice and opinion on Real Estate matters (and often most other matters as well)

Anonymous said...

The Times Colonist:
http://tiny.cc/QXL1v

boomer said...

hey-roger
where are you ?
we need charts.

you didn't have a moment of weakness and buy a world class Bear Mountain condo and switch over to the dark side, did you?

naaaah.

boomer said...

"The average number of days on the market for sold single-family properties was 42 last month, up from 35 in June of 2007, the board said. But year-to-date, the average number of days on the market is 38, lower than 40 days for the same months last year, Joe said."

There's a rare stat.--year to date average number of days on the market-- AND DOWN from 40 days to 38 days---wow

Tony has his Hair-Splitting machine going full throttle this time.
LOL

kabloona said...

Didn't Tony also promise single digit price *gains* this year??? So....what's with this price "decline" stuff...??

What's a "decline" mean, anyway....???

;-)

greg said...

Saying DOM for "sold" properties is down is kind of a red herring when the number of "unsold" properties is way up. I suspect DOM on those isn't quite so nice....

beagle said...

Realtor.ca - new MLS search site

vg said...

more TC front page :

"something that hasn't been evident for a long time : price reductions"


imagine that eh ? just like Nortel shares at $100 eh SP ?

Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen this Van Sun article?

"Bribery trial set for Island developers"

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/westcoastnews/story.html?id=eee3894a-6c61-4687-b6d3-d8df29f757ff

S2

kabllona said...

That's how they got the land for SunRiver Estates out of ALR....greased somebody to the tune of $50k.

Anonymous said...

Well a smart reporter like Carla, should catch Tony Joe on the "days on market" statistic.

Her follow up questions could be:

"Mr Joe, what is the real estate board's policy on agents re-listing properties to show a lower days on market? Would you consider re-listing to be mis-leading the public?

just jack

Anonymous said...

The bribing of an official was not surprising.

What I found interesting was how little money it took. A crook is bad enough - but a cheap crook is pathetic.

Considering the millions that have been made. He should have taken a couple of the building lots, then flipped them with an assignment of contract before they were registered at land titles.

mmmmm or did he?

patriotz said...

Don't we all do that these silly things... John Doe MD®, John Doe P Eng®, Jane Doe Nurse®, John Doe Tenant®, etc

Doctors and nurses (and lawyers and engineers, etc) are legally recognized professions and the designations physician, registered nurse, etc are legally restricted to those who belong to the professional societies. They are not trademarks.

Realtor®, on the other hand, is just a trademark belonging to the Real Estate Board, just as Big Mac® is a trade mark belonging to McDonalds. The REB can let a chimpanzee call itself a Realtor® if it wants to.

Anonymous said...

My®&™ Realtor® decided that he™ will go®&™ back to high school® to learn how® to use®&™ PCS™ and MLS® and learn the highly technical® real estate terminology®&™ such as "right price"™,"snapped up"™,"snatched up"™,"healthy"®, "balanced"®, "robust"®, "long term"®&™ and "great investment"®&™.

Ryan said...

"Her follow up questions could be:

"Mr Joe, what is the real estate board's policy on agents re-listing properties to show a lower days on market? Would you consider re-listing to be mis-leading the public?"


You don't even need to be that specific, just ask what the days on market is for all properties, sold and unsold. Quoting the days on market for sold properties is meaningless. If there were 5000 unsold properties and the only sale that month was a foreclosure auction, the DOM for sold properties would be one day. Never mind the ones that didn't sell and haven't sold for months.

Anonymous said...

The board has become the topic of entertainment, a negative one. Like Clinton, “we didn’t have traditional sex”. The board has lost its confidence among buyers. I will buy a house some time later. I will never relay info from the board anymore.

There is no point to talk it again, except for entertainment. It’s only a representative of a group of greedy people, representing these, not the normal public.

But I learned something from the board, to be creative to fool people.

boomer said...

"The REB can let a chimpanzee call itself a Realtor® if it wants to."


well, there's this guy that works for ReMax . . . . .



lol

original sockpuppet said...

I see roger doesn't know how to take a hint. Now he's posting links to his boring stats and charts on Greg's blog - cheaprealty.net.

At least he's not posting his usual monthly spin and commentary on VREB's June report. I guess he has figured out that the market is stable and not falling like he predicted.

Ryan said...

You mean aside from the average and median price?

Village said...

At least he's not posting his usual monthly spin and commentary on VREB's June report. I guess he has figured out that the market is stable and not falling like he predicted.

Markets are never stable and balanced. They are either falling, and the buyer is in control or rising and the seller is in control. I suppose there is that brief moment in history when the market transitions from one side of the equation to the other. But it's hardly worth mentioning since that moment is very brief in existance.

I suspect the rule applies to all asset classes. On the other hand, I could be completely wrong.

patriotz said...

They are either falling, and the buyer is in control or rising and the seller is in control.

The buyer is always in control of RE markets. Always, always, always.

A house will only sell for what the most willing buyer offers.

Somebody always has to sell a house, but nobody has to buy.

S2 said...

Here are the stats from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. I don't see them up yet on Mohican's blog but thought I would post here as they are a bit fun.

Na, na, na, na, na, na, hey, hey, hey, good bye.

"MARKET SHIFTS TO FAVOUR FRASER VALLEY BUYERS"

http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20200806.pdf

Anonymous said...

So, the market turns and we now perceive a transition between a "sellers" market to a "buyers".

Fear and greed moved the market up and fear and greed will cause the market to drop. The difference being that now the sellers will have the fear of not being able to sell their property and the buyers will have the greed of getting a better and better price.

Someone owning their property for the last decade has a lot of wiggle room on the price. But, they only will lower their price in relation to what other sellers are doing. So, collectively sellers still have some control. But as buyers hold off or slow down from making purchases, the mix of sellers begin to change from one that was predominantly people that did not have to sell to ones that are under duress, such as a relocation, mortgage default or having to cary two properties.

We will not see any great drops in prices until the days on market stretches out into the 60 to 90 day period and stays there for a few months.

But it will come.

just jack

Anonymous said...

GREAT REPORTS on the local MSM:

Boom to Bust

Island ready for fire sale prices!

boomer said...

received an email from a realtor stating that market is softening due to MEDIA bias


SP-jun.condo prices are lower than 9 out of the last 12 months ----including YOY


BTW roger has jun updates on his charts here:

http://photoshare.shaw.ca/gallery/needinbox/

sorry- still havent figured out "links" on this site.

Anonymous said...

From the Edmonton Journal:

"A single-family home sold for an average price of $381,384, down 8.6 per cent from June 2007"

http://tinyurl.com/6ldmem

Anonymous said...

Of course, we have all seen this article from today's TC

"Northern Island house sales cooling off"

http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/business/story.html?id=6f57d877-158a-4bb3-bfb7-90d23b526a17

S2

Anonymous said...

It is global.

From today's TC

"Signs of property slide show up in India"

http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/homes/story.html?id=f5ebf1af-590b-457f-8582-6240c8b28e55

S2

boomer said...

but EVERYONE wants to live in New Delhi

-its just becoming a balanced market
with more choice for buyers

Anonymous said...

Check it out!
Step by step vid on "how to flip a house"
No wonder everyone and his dog is getting rich flipping RE in Victoria....it's soooooooooo easy!
See you all in 2 years - 30% minimum.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JY9dnVy9YnY

Anonymous said...

30%? Increase maybe..5% slow drop for about a year and back up 10% over the next two. SFH Rents up 10% overall over the next two - three years.