The timing of this latest article is interesting. Could it be that June numbers are going to be shocking coming out of the VREB?
TD Economics released a report yesterday declaring the housing boom is over. Yet housing starts are still up YOY, shocking many RE pundits into declaring that if the builders are building they still see profits to be had. So the market can’t be going down can it?
If bread gets cheaper next week, will Wonder suddenly stop making it?
It’s time for predictions. What will the June VREB numbers look like? I think we’ll see:
- higher listings in the range of 10-15% MOM, but reported as less than that cumulatively YOY
- increased sales from May 2008, but lower than June 2007 by roughly 20%
- lower average and median prices, both around minus 1-2% MOM, but remaining in the 10-11% YOY range
I’m guessing Tony et al will choose to spin this as the market remains balanced. Which it is. For now at least.
Selected quotes from the article linked above:
"For people hoping home values will be plummeting any time in the future, I don't think that's going to be happening any time soon."– funny that Joe is even acknowledging our voice exists. We must be getting louder.
Joe said the market has been cool so far in 2008, but he was quick to point out that comes in comparison to 2007 which he considered an "exceptionally busy year when we exceeded all the numbers." Except when you compare sales numbers from May 2006, to May 2007, you see only a slight increase, record
levels none-the-less, but not “exceptionally busy” in comparison.
"The cooling-off period is not unique to this region, and not to the province of B.C. -- the North American economy as a whole has seen a dramatic change in market value in the past year," said Landcor president Rudy Nielsen.
"Speculation, both from investors and homeowners expecting a major financial payoff, makes housing more volatile than other economic sectors," said Nielsen.
"Recently consumer confidence has dwindled, causing the market to correct. This is the normal real estate cycle and this is what we're seeing throughout B.C."Emphasis mine. Your predictions in comments.