Happy holidays everyone.
2008 has proven to be a year chock-full of surprises. We've seen the average single family home lose almost $100,000 in value. We've seen listings skyrocket and sales plummet. We've seen panic from within the real estate industry. We've seen the MSM go from head cheerleader to pallbearer to cheerleader to confused. We've seen "real estate industry experts" continue to demonstrate their inability to accurately predict "what time the 3 o'clock ferry to Vancouver will leave."
And we've seen the MSM tell us the "bloggers got it right" but not before Re/Max confirmed BC bear blogger's numbers with their own admissions.
So what could possibly occur in 2009?
Dear readers, I'll give you my predictions and I'll ask for yours in comments.
Spring 2009 is the turning point. One thing will definitely happen: listing will jump drastically, hitting all time highs in March/April, probably nearing 6000 total units. I expect to see a slight rise in sales volumes in March/April, not reaching spring 2007 levels, but somewhere in the neighbourhood of 450-500 units. January and February will look like Oct/Nov 08 and see drops in prices as a result.
As far as prices go, I expect to see a leveling-off of price declines (the proverbial dead cat bounce) over the same stretch, prior to a 2008-like plunge that will see month-over-month average changes in the negative 2%-2.5%, totalling up to somewhere in the neighbourhood of 18%-24% total annual decline.
I expect to see a total drop in average sales prices from the April 2008 peak nearing 30% by the end of 2009. That will mean a house that sold for $625K in April 2008 will be selling for around $440K next December. Something to look forward to bears: those crappy, neglected, homes with suites in neighbourhoods you'd rather not live in that are currently sitting on the market for around $425K, they'll be sitting on the market at the end of 2009 for somewhere around $300K.
Remember people, my predictions are worth exactly what you paid for them.