Monday, January 5, 2009

Roger's stats analysis


Roger has updated the stats slideshow for December 2008 and included some great yearly and quarterly stats as well.

Thanks Roger.

89 comments:

HouseHuntVictoria said...

I was surprised by the sales to new listings ratio last month. Time will tell, but I'm guessing it really was an anomoly created by very low numbers.

mln said...

Reportedly, the REBGV benchmark is down another 2.7% to $648K. May benchmark was $771K, so they're off 16% from peak.

I'm still amazed by how fast this is going.

Anonymous said...

Whoop. Here comes the second wave of US RE foreclosures... not peaking until 2011!

Oh but don't worry, Victoria real estate will "balance out" by Q2 2009 dontcha know.

Anonymous said...

REBGV press release is at
http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/200901-REBGV%20Stats%20Release.pdf

hp

Anonymous said...

HouseHuntVictoria said...

I was surprised by the sales to new listings ratio last month. Time will tell, but I'm guessing it really was an anomaly created by very low numbers.


I don't find 50% sales to new listings surprising for this December. If you look at Roger's chart, this ratio was between 80% and 90% every December the last 3 years. The spike in December is because it's a lousy month to list, but there are still some sales.

This is balanced in January which typically has the lowest sales to new listings, so look out for that stat next month.

Anonymous said...

Victoria real estate never go down. Huge asian influx due to warming trend and Olympics means good money for everyone except moldy renters. Victoria home to government and lots of worker from other places come here for no snow time.

roger said...

HHV,

Thanks for posting the link to the stats slideshow. Here are a couple of things for readers to consider.

- There is considerable variability in average and median prices in the November to February period due to the low number of sales. One should watch the 3 month rolling average in order to see the RE market trend.

- January is not a great month for sales but listings jump considerably in this and following months. This can be seen in this graph.

- SFH sales in 2008 were down 25% from 2007 and have not been this low since 2000.

2000 3,220
2001 4,096
2002 4,430
2003 4,477
2004 4,285
2005 4,214
2006 4,008
2007 4,464
2008 3,355

- Total active MLS listings are at a multi-year high and will rise every month between now and June as shown in this graph of Active MLS listings

mln said...

Housing market braces for correction, not crash

...

By contrast, Vancouver, which Royal LePage called Canada's “most expensive city,” will likely experience a 9-per-cent drop in average prices to $540,100 this year, the steepest decline anywhere in the country. But the correction will be a “natural cyclical reaction” to nearly a decade of above-average increases, it said.

Anonymous said...

January will be a “great” month.
Did you notice that many for sale signs right after XMAS?

“Catch the last train for sell right now.
Wait till the bottom to buy after 2011.”

A ant could not spin a train 120km/h down the hill.

Anonymous said...

Huh?

Ryan said...

When I was coming in to work today I saw a realtor putting out open house signs. It looked like two different companies, so unless they are co-marketing the same development one of them is probably a flipper. But mostly, it looks like sheer desperation to be having an open house in the middle of the day on a Tuesday in early January.

Anonymous said...

That's true, anon 7:11... some "Christmas" sales always skew the December numbers.

And when someone is buying a gift for a loved one, or worse yet, themselves and a loved one (or loved ones), it's the time they are thinking the LEAST sensibly about price.

They're just thinking of closing in time and getting that big bow for the front door.

Anonymous said...

I can see some rational for an open house on a random weekday. Ideally, evenings and weekends you should be taking perspective clients to view houses. Might as well open a house up during the weekday when you aren't doing anything else.

Of course, perspective clients are mostly working so I don't see how it would actually be effective. Generally, the whole concept falsl apart on deeper inspection. But hey, maybe it's near major jobs area and within a lunch break stop in and looksie. =)

-Village

Anonymous said...

Lots of developments are open 5-6 days per week for their show suites. How an open house translates to "sheer desperation" is beyond me.

roger said...

Some of you may have heard from REALTORS® that house prices were up 3% in 2008 from 2007. This is true but it is based on annual averages which are very misleading.

So to counter the spin I prepared a new slideshow called SFH - Sales & Prices Tumble

There is also a pdf version which you can download here . Feel free to post the link on other blogs & forums:

http://victoriacrash.notlong.com

roger said...

A few weeks ago the new president of VREB was commenting how out of town buyers will continue to prop up the Victoria market. Well if they are coming from Alberta they might be delayed for some time.

Home sales slide to lowest since '96

On Tuesday, the slide was evident as the Calgary Real Estate Board officially released its MLS year-end data for 2008. Total sales are the lowest they have been since 1996.... The condominium market fared worse. Sales plunged by 31.3 per cent to 5,661 compared with 2007

December was a brutal month for weather in Calgary, but the chill was particularly felt in the residential real estate market.

Sales of single-family homes plunged by 46.9 per cent to 449 compared with December 2007, while condo sales fell by 47.8 per cent to 205.


I guess those retirees are having trouble unloading. This is quite evident in Parksville-Qualicum which is a mecca for Alberta retirees. In December only 14 houses sold compared to 45 last year and there are over 300 on the market.

Anonymous said...

anon said:

Lots of developments are open 5-6 days per week for their show suites. How an open house translates to "sheer desperation" is beyond me.

Sure the development offices are open because they advertise in the paper, have ads in magazines and are doing outbound telemarketing campaigns. That is much different than a real estate agent putting out some street signs hoping to snag a few passerbys.

But if commission cheques are far between it is a good idea because you can save money by turning down the heat at home and then sit in someone elses house watching TV.

Ryan said...

And who is going to go to an open house in the middle of the day? They aren't giving mortgages to unemployed people anymore.

Anonymous said...

A good point, but I'm still not buying "sheer desperation." Maybe a realtor that doesn't mind actually working for a living - maybe she gets it...?

roger said...

anon said:

A good point, but I'm still not buying "sheer desperation.

Did you know that the real estate commission pie shrink by 25% last year? Or that house sales in the 4th quarter of 2008 dropped to 50% of the levels seen in the 3 previous years?

roger said...

oops..

shrink = shrank

wish we could edit posts..

roger said...

More real estate rumours flying around over on Vibrant Victoria

If anything shows up in the local papers I will post it here.

Anonymous said...

Yes I am aware Roger and have no doubt that the realtors are now very desperate - 1 sale for perhaps every 10 or more realtors?

But some will survive this new RE non-market and will be around for the next blitz. Having an open house in the middle of the week, while possibly pointless and possibly desperate, shows a pretty strong committment IMO and might be just what someone needs to do to get by.

roger said...

On the news wire

Overheated Vancouver-area real estate market cools

A seven-year real estate bubble has burst in the greater Vancouver housing market.

Sales of homes in 2008 dropped by over 35 per cent, compared to 2007 sales of more than 38,000 homes.

Dave Watt, president of the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, says the last half of 2008 showed a consistent drop in prices.....

Prices have dropped almost 11 per cent between December 2007 and the end of 2008, and Watt says the perception is that prices are still falling so it's hard to identify the bottom of the market.

mln said...

I think that's the first time I've heard the words "real estate bubble" in the MSM. Historic day. :)

Anonymous said...

Here's a link to a chart on the VREB:
http://www.vreb.org/pdf/historical_statistics/GRAA2008.pdf

Probably not news to many here but interesting to see the trends. By applying a best fit line through the middle, we should expect a further drop of another 15%-25% followed by a flat line for perhaps 7-8 years.

Of course there are lots of variables today and we are looking at averages not means etc etc but the charts are interesting. It might be more useful to see an inflation adjusted trend - which may reflect near or below zero real price appreciation.

roger said...

Anon said:

It might be more useful to see an inflation adjusted trend - which may reflect near or below zero real price appreciation.

I posted this inflation adjusted graph a few months ago.

You will note the big departure in prices from the cyclical range starting in 2003.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for that.

I was trying to find a similar graph for rental rates but nothing yet.

NanHousing said...

I can't beleive the stats for VIREB areas north of Victoria...they are simply unbeleiveable. All 6 areas December 08 stats are at the following link

http://www.relocationbc.com/statistics-vanisland.asp

roger said...

NanHousing said:

I can't beleive the stats for VIREB areas north of Victoria...they are simply unbeleiveable.

They sure are!! The sale/listing price ratio is under 89% in one area and 90-91% in others. That means buyers are getting the property for around 10% off the listing price.

Fooder said...

I looked at those graphs and was hit with how different they are from every other shred of information I've heard. Then I saw the printing at the bottom.

NOTE: Figures are based on a “rolling total“ from the past 12 months – i.e. 12 months to date instead of the calendar “year to date”.

Anonymous said...

Fooder,
yep, when you don't like a negative message, just go back far enough and average things out. Next year, they'll be using rolling totals with 24 or 36 months of data, but I think by then even kindergarten kids will know house prices don't always go up. Let's hope they'll remember that 30 years later.

roger said...

NanHousing,

Here is a real estate article on Nanaimo for your blog.

Real estate prices falter at end of '08

Housing sales fell by almost 50% last month in Nanaimo, and real estate prices appear to be edging down as a result.

The Vancouver Island Real Estate Board's December sales figures show 43 units sold, compared to 83 in the same month for 2007.

The average real estate deal was for $364,516, a drop of almost $13,000, or 3% from the same period a year earlier.

Nanaimo is not alone. The VIREB report identifies fewer sales in every markets north of Victoria.....

But the news means buyers have the upper hand in real estate deals, for now at least.

"What's happening in the central Island, as is happening in most every other market in the province, we're seeing sales dropping off," said Cameron Muir, B.C. Real Estate Association economist.

Unit sales dropped to 26 from 54 in the Comox Valley last month, to 21 from 42 in the Cowichan Valley, to 14 from 45 in Parksville-Qualicum Beach and to 20 from 28 in Campbell River. Even the isolated Port Alberni-west region saw only eight units sell, compared to 17 a year earlier.

NanHousing said...

Roger,

I added a new entry on the blog using that article.

It is interesting how they used yearly averages in the chart and not YOY ones. But using an average of 43 sales isn't reliable at all.

The realty pie down 25% is quite interesting too. I wonder how many of the realtors are living on the edge with mortgages and car payments?

Fooder said...

With the talk of people just affording their homes via a rent combined with the talk around flooding, I can't help but feel bad for some people around Victoria right now.
This must be hitting a number of people who have bought a house over the last 5 years and put in a basement suite. With this being the first big flood winter in years many people will have had no idea their basements have a history of flooding.
Now a landlord has to put the tenet us somewhere and repair the damage done to their structure.
I'm in no way saying this to mock landlords, this is a horrible situation... I'm just pointing this out because I think it may have a ripple on the market going forward. Some homes with suites are all of a sudden a larger risk.

omc said...

A sign of the times!


snicker snicker

NanHousing said...

Well, looks like the Island got its own section on Garth's newest post.

http://greaterfool.ca

greg said...

Owner is a licensed realtor.

OMC - looks like a realtor drank his own kool-aid, instead of looking at the stats, which he has more access to than john q public, btw.

Anonymous said...

RE: snicker snicker

Insure it and burn it.

That's the kind of advice you'll find on the brand new home show by the producers who brought you "This Old House" and "Flip This House"... "Insure and Burn".... 25 minutes full of top-rung tips by the arson experts and top contractors on how to fool the insurance company AND the police! ALL EVEN while hosting the first and most famous House Repair Show of all time (if you happen to do that already.)

From people who have done it! And YOU CAN TOO!!!

Get into the ground floor of the hottest new trend in the real estate industry... INSURE AND BURN!!

Starring "This Old House's" very own TOM SILVA!

Coming 7 days a week to a cable channel near you!

Nick said...

Albertans with 'no equity left' going bankrupt

Interesting...

Anonymous said...

Everybody is moving to HERE:

In Calgary: Vancouver is only a place for fools: high house price less jobs, many of them are moving to here.

In Vancouver: guys in Calgary are laying off, they are moving to here looking for job.

In Victoria: it is so cold in Calgary they are moving here with their money.

In Toronto: it is terrible raining winter in BC, many of them are moving to here.

Anonymous said...

The realtor’ RE bottom

The bottom was in June and July of 2008, just as the time of the economy. Now we are recovering, there will be one digit growth in 2009. it is good time to sell and the best time to buy.

Sounds like a ant spin a running train.

Anonymous said...

There is an invasion of ants trying to spin PLANETS over at Prairieboy's blog... :(

Anonymous said...

Housing starts in the province plummeted in 2008

Housing starts in B.C. fell 10% in 2008 with areas outside Metro Vancouver seeing the most declines, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Victoria recorded a 26% decline in housing starts last year, while Kelowna's were down 20%. That contrasts to a 6% decline in Metro Vancouver, where the bulk of new homes are built in the province.


The CMHC said housing construction will continue drop as developers adjust to the higher number of new and existing homes for resale. Housing starts fallen since mid-2008, when the economy began showing signs of slowing.

Anonymous said...

Flaherty warns of future job losses

OTTAWA - The federal government warns Canadians face a year of harsh economic conditions with "substantial job losses" in light of last month's larger-than-expected loss of 34,400 jobs.

Anonymous said...

Here's a disgruntled renter posting a rant on Craigslist.

Sadly, he doesn't understand that all these landlords need to charge insane rents just to cover their mortgage while they wait for the spring to re-list.

Ryan said...

It can be a little time consuming to sort through all the ads on Craigslist, but there is so much out there right now that any half decent tenant should have no problem finding a place. I was looking for a 2br in a specific neighbourhood and I have a cat. I not only found two places, I got both and was able to barter the one I wanted down.

The specuvesters who got caught holding the bag on condos costing $1600 a month+ in mortgage payments are screwed no matter what. If they rent for market rate they just bleed slower, so you can't really blame them for putting an ad up and hoping some sucker will pay the full mortgage payment. Otherwise, some of them are going to have to subsidize their tenant's rent and some are going to go bankrupt, or lose their own house to cover the loss on the condo.

It will only be after the units are sold or foreclosed on that we'll see them for rent at a reasonable price. That'll take a while. In the meantime, just be happy that it's a renters' market and if you have a job and aren't a druggy, you should have no problem finding a place. Even if you have pets.

Anonymous said...

You're not going to see significant rental rate drops - especially in the way of SFH. The rates on these have increased only marginally when compared to year 2000 yet FMV has more that doubled.

As for a 2 bdrm suite at $1,200, $600 per person is cheap by wages today. Rents and FMV/mortgages will meet somewhere in the middle - this direction is already happening.

patriotz said...

By contrast, Vancouver, which Royal LePage called Canada's “most expensive city,” will likely experience a 9-per-cent drop in average prices to $540,100 this year

And what were these jackasses predicting a year ago? That prices would keep rising through 2008, of course.

Canada’s House Prices Forecast To Rise By 3.5 Per Cent In 2008; Activity To Moderate

womp said...

I hope no one missed the news tonight. In case you haven't heard already, Vancouver is on the hook for $875 million dollars for the Olympics.

Unbelievable... and yet... predicted by many.

Anonymous said...

Vancouver on the hook for the Olympics?? Couldn't be...

With the Jan 27 Fed budget coming up, the taxpayers will have a little more to worry about than $875 mill. That will be with a conservative government, just imagine the mess the NDP could get us into!!!!

patriotz said...

Anon 10:04, why don't you leave the election campaign to Gordo?

The fact is that the NDP have not been in power in BC for the last eight years, nor have they been in power at the federal level, so let's hold the incumbent governments responsible and not resort to imaginary strawmen.

BTW I would like Gordo to be re-elected so he can take full blame for the coming debacle. The NDP have not offered any meaningful criticism of BC's bubble economy anyway.

Anonymous said...

I fully agree Patriotz, and if you read my post you will see I am referring to the Jan 27 FEDERAL budget not the provincial election. Lets not confuse the board.

My point is if you think $875 million is substantial in Vancouver, wait and see what the Jan 27th Federal budget brings. I'm personally very interested because if they bring in something like a reduction to capital gains tax (perhaps to 0?) we will see property listings increase as long-time landlords cash in. I will personally benefit long term from any tax changes made and will be watching very closely.

I'm not advocating governments one way other the other, so lets leave that alone, eh?

Anonymous said...

Hey HHV, is it just me or is your blog teddy bear wearing a gold hat? haha

Anonymous said...

Wow, 11:06, I never noticed that before... seems Bear is DOUBLE ready!!

hhv said...

I'm pretty sure his crash helmet is of the tinfoil variety ;-)

Anonymous said...

Merrill Lynch AND US Bank says no matter deflation or inflation, gold a "Win-win" situation:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4177766/Merrill-Lynch-says-rich-turning-to-gold-bars-for-safety.html

Anonymous said...

Luckily it's only Vancouverites on the hook for the 800 million. They're such idiots they deserve it.

Anonymous said...

After attempting to buy Olympic tickets, I have to agree. The prices were ridiculous, and nobody
I know got any. So Vancouverites are coughing up for a two week tourist infomercial, and don't even have much chance to attend. Too bad...

Anonymous said...

I think the biggest irony of all will be when Vancouver real estate crashes hard precisely when the Olympics finally come around. I figure by then Vancouver Real Estate will be down 30% from peak.

So much for the "Vancouver Real Estate will go up because we have the Olympics!!". - Vancouver Realtors ® and brainless buyer lemmings.

I predict Olympic seat sales starting 3 months before the (not so) "big" event.

patriotz said...

I figure by then Vancouver Real Estate will be down 30% from peak.

More. We are already down 16% from the peak in April, and we have not yet seen the impact of job losses and presale defaults.

I also agree that the ticket resale and Olympic accommodation markets will be another fiasco. Right at the bottom of the biggest recession post-WWII - oops. Shiller was right when he said that Vancouver is the bubbliest city in the world - this place just can't get enough of them.

vg said...

Kudos to Barrie for getting out at the top.

You have to wonder if there was more behind the shutdowns than meets the eye.




TSN reports Len Barrie has sold Bear Mountain to Dubai group


Times ColonistJanuary 10, 2009 3:00 PM

The Sports Network is reporting that Len Barrie, Langford businessman and former National Hockey League player, has sold the Bear Mountain Golf Resort and real estate development to a Dubai group for $500 million. The deal is rumoured to close by mid-February but Barrie was unavailable for comment.

The news comes less than a year after Barrie became one of the owners of the Tampa Bay Lightning NHL team. In June of last year, the team was sold for around $200 million to a group that includes Barrie, Hollywood producer Oren Koules and several others.

Barrie knows Koules through his hockey connections. Koules was a former Western Hockey League player before becoming a producer of the four Saw horror movies and the Two and a Half Men television series.

Barrie’s son, Tyson, is a rising star in the WHL with the Kelowna Rockets.

The 1,300-acre (526-hectare) Bear Mountain development opened in 2003 and includes a Jack Niklaus golf resort and spa, 156-room Westin hotel and residential homes.

boomer said...

ANON said "Luckily it's only Vancouverites on the hook for the 800 million. They're such idiots they deserve it."

UH-NOT QUITE

1998---BC taxpayers were assured that they might be on the hook for about $100 MILLION (max) for the 2010 Olympics.
2005-- The B.C. Liberals budgeted $2.5 MILLION for renovations to BC Place.
"It is not anticipated that BC Place will need a significant capital infusion," Minister for the Olympics Colin Hansen assured the legislature then.---------(NOW it’s a $365 MILLION upgrade).
Ongoing-----Convention Centre, to serve as the media centre for 2010. Cost, approaching $900 MILLION, almost double the original "budget.".
Ongoing-----B.C. is fighting to reduce its share of a security bill, (which had been budgeted at $175 MILLION) which is now anticipated in excess of $1 BILLION (the feds are kicking in around 400 MILLION so far)
2007--Colin Hansen- "Something that has been the bane of my existence is an obsession that certain members of the media have ... that the cost of the Games are out of control and it is going to cost way more than anyone says it is going to cost. There are days when I am absolutely convinced that there is no amount of facts that will dissuade somebody from a good story."
Today’s news---Taxpayers probably on the hook for $875 MILLION for Olympic Village construction which was supposedly self-financing, apart from $30 MILLION in shared backing from the federal and provincial governments.
Tomorrows news? --- Major Olympic sponsors include: Nortel and General Motors.
Once again , BC is ahead of the rest of Canada by embarking on our own ”stimulus package” years before the phrase had even been coined elsewhere.

Anonymous said...

>>"TSN reports Len Barrie has sold Bear Mountain to Dubai group"

What is it with Dubai and stupid investments? Buying insolvent US banks, building subdivisions in the ocean and now Bear Mountain. Brilliant!

patriotz said...

ANON said "Luckily it's only Vancouverites on the hook for the 800 million. They're such idiots they deserve it."

UH-NOT QUITE


Not to argue with your remarks, but ANON was correct about "the" 800 million, which refers to the Olympic Village obligation.

Thanks for the 1998 quote. That's a reminder that the Olympics are coming courtesy of Glen Clark. IMHO if he were still in office things would be no different. That's the great irony - Gordo is really just Glen with a housing bubble and negative savings rate, which have given the illusion that the province has become more prosperous.That illusion is going to dissipate very quickly.

Anonymous said...

Dubai isn't that stupid. They want something from the gov, and this is their way of buying in.

NOT good.

Anonymous said...

Was on the MLS website today (after it was down all last night and this morning.)

Omigod. Almost 50 2 bed/2bath trailers up island under $100,000.

And a few DOUBLE-WIDES!?!?!!?!?!??!!!!

Last year, you couldn't find ONE.

Trailers on Vancouver island selling for the same price as trailers on the mainland?

Truly, the world is ending.

Anonymous said...

WOW, I was on CL this AM and the rental section has turned into a huge renter/landlord complaint blog. Renters complaining about prices and some looking at organizing a petition to stop rent increases.

The situation makes me wonder if the rent subsidy provided to low income earners hasn't once again backfired with the result being an increase in rates (more $$ available for rents increases charges.)

Maybe if government hadn't interferred through the RTO in the first place the situation would be different.

patriotz said...

Before the establishment of the Rentalsman (as it was then called) way back in Dave Barrett's day all landlord-tenant disputes had to be settled by the courts. Not a good method for either party.

boomer said...

"Not to argue with your remarks, but ANON was correct about "the" 800 million, which refers to the Olympic Village obligation."

Patz--I would think that,assuming that the City of Vancouver cant find alternate funding for this, it will eventually get melded into the overall Olympic debt pile. Doesn't really matter much as there is really only one taxpayer-and thats you (and me)-and we're on track for funding obligations well in excess of 3 billion bucks for the 5 ring circus and its appendages.

Muriel said...

I think it's good that renters are giving some feedback to landlords via Craigslist postings, even though it's too bad that it temporarily makes the site a bit harder for people to use.

There are so many ridiculously unrealistic landlords posting there. One example is a guy in my neighbourhood who kicked out the previous tenants he had, renovated the suite, and is now trying to rent a 3 bdm suite in house for $2,200 - justifying this asking price by pointing to the granite counters and travertine floors etc. Happily, it doesn't seem to be working, as he tried to rent it for January 1 and hasn't yet.

I think it's good for this type of landlord to hear some tenant outrage - that combined with their lack of success in renting their units might actually get the message through to them that their wishing rents are too high.

roger said...

TSN & TC jumped the gun:

Bear Mountain resort has not been sold

Reports that Bear Mountain resort owner Len Barrie has sold the luxury vacation property to a Dubai group for $500 million are pure speculation, says a spokesman for Barrie.

"We'll consider all offers toward Bear Mountain but the reality is that nothing has been signed or committed to," Steve Howe said. "When we have a half-billion-dollar cheque lying around, there will be a press release."

Anonymous said...

Bear Mountain's $500 million was determined by an audit.

An audit?
An audit!

Evidently Dubai investors are so sophisticated that they make a half billion dollar deal based on?

Book keeping records!

phil said...

I thought that sounded a bit strange. I'm sure Len Barrie thinks things will be back on track in the spring.

The Kool Aid doesn't wear off that easy.

roger said...

I made several updates to the Real Estate Stats gallery today. Drop by and check them out. You can uses the pause aand single step buttons to control the slides.

I think readers will find the latest CMHC & VREB data used in this SFH graph interesting.

Anonymous said...

Murieil said:
"One example is a guy in my neighbourhood who kicked out the previous tenants he had, renovated the suite, and is now trying to rent a 3 bdm suite in house for $2,200 - justifying this asking price by pointing to the granite counters and travertine floors etc."

Evicting tenants to make room for significant renovation is one of few ways for a landlord to correct rental rates to the current market conditions (maybe the rent was $900/ month before?) If the current rate was too low it made sense to the landlord to spend a few thousand and be able raise the rents after the reno.

As for $2,200 for a 3 bd suite, that sounds just a little over the top and he will likely wait a while to find a family able to afford it - and even then the turnover will be high, which will result in more vacancy and/or tenancy problems. It doesn't pay for the LL to try to milk every last dollar.

Craig's List renters and landlords continue their rant and there's lots of people willing to share their expertise based on one-sided reviews. The level of anger coming from the tenants would suggest the market remains tight.

patriotz said...

As for $2,200 for a 3 bd suite, that sounds just a little over the top

Yeah kinda. As of right now there are 258 3 bedroom properties for rent on Craigslist for $2200/month or less, including many complete houses.

$2200 / 3br - James Bay Home

Rent. Relax. This beautiful James Bay home features 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, and a recently remodeled kitchen with maple cabinets/oak flooring. Three patios, outdoor lighting and a well-maintained yard & garden (with partial drip irrigation), complete this renter's dream. One block from the ocean (Dallas Road), just steps to downtown Victoria, and close to public parks, transit routes, schools and shopping.

womp said...

With all the Craigslist talk I was poking around there today, and saw this:

http://victoria.en.craigslist.ca/fuo/989298114.html

"million dollar home Bear Mtn. $75,000.00 in furn.. (Bear mtn)"

"Everything must sell $75000 in furniture
nothing older then 6 months
full 5000sq ft. home full of everything
also both vehicles are going too
2001 mercedes slk convertable
1997 lexus ls 400 "

The cars make me wonder if it could be a realtor...

Anonymous said...

Not likely. Realtors are going to have to hang onto their cars. TO LIVE IN.

Unless this person already has a '74 station wagon they inherited from mom and dad they're holding onto expressly for that purpose.

Anonymous said...

I saw another add like that but on used victoria: house, pickup, car, couch and chair, dining table etc.

All the moveables appeared about 35% over-valued so who knows where the house is priced.

roger said...

Today's News Headlines

Bank of Canada survey shows credit crunch growing

The headlines from these surveys are terrifying, with TD Securities saying in a note Monday: “Recent survey data from the Bank of Canada suggests a massive retrenchment in expectations about the Canadian outlook. Almost all survey components posted major declines or their lowest levels since the survey began in 1997.”

What's known as the Senior Loan Officer Survey shows widespread tightening in credit. This comes as lenders try to pass on increases in their own cost of borrowing by jacking up the rates on loans. And terms and standards on loans are being raised, at the same time the amount of capital allocated to certain sectors is trimmed. This information is coming from bank executives.


New home prices slid in November

The largest monthly declines were 1.7 per cent in Vancouver, 1.6 per cent in the in the St. Catharines-Niagara region, which has been hit hard by layoffs, 1.1 per cent in Calgary and 0.9 per cent in Victoria.

Forty thousand B.C. jobs expected to be lost in 2009

As the global economic crisis continues to spill into B.C., some 40,000 jobs are predicted to vanish across the province in 2009, according to an economic report to be released this week by Central 1 Credit Union.

Those most at risk work in construction, but substantial job losses are also expected in the retail, primary-resource and manufacturing industries.

Finance and real-estate jobs will also disappear, say forecasters.

roger said...

Here is the latest report from the Canadian Plunge-O-Meter

Victoria peaked in April 2008 with an average price of 630K and fell to 548K in December for a drop of 82K or 13%. The median in April was 558K and in December was 508K for a drop of 50K or 9%

Anonymous said...

That's a small but very powerful post Roger!

I think if people email that site's chart with all the major Canadian cities price drop from peak around the office & to their friends, and include your Victoria numbers as well, the Truth of Victoria real estate will really start to get out there.

I'll be bookmarking that site for sure.

Thanks for sharing such great info as always Roger. I'm sure your efforts have by now saved dozens or more people countless thousands of dollars.

roger said...

anon 8:04,

Thanks for the comments.

Here is the latest BCREA report (pdf).

Excerpts in italics

British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports residential sales dollar volume on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 31 per cent to $31.3 billion in 2008, compared to 2007. Residential unit sales declined 33 per cent to 68,923 units last year, the lowest level since 2000, when 54,179 transactions were recorded. The average MLS® residential price in 2008 was $454,599, up 3.5 per cent from 2007.

Note the average residential price is a 12 month average including SFH, condos and townhouses. Cameron Muir was pretty candid in this quote.

“The housing market came in like a lion and went out like a lamb in 2008,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Home prices reached a record high in March, but edged lower during the balance of the year.” The average residential sales price hit $483,291 in March and ended the year at $429,210, an 11 per cent decline in nine months.

Anonymous said...

My favorite part of the roller coaster... after the long, nerve-wracking seemingly endless and slow climb to the top, the quick hurtle downward at warp speed... only with your eyes closed so you have no idea when the real bottom is going to hit.

Anonymous said...

Bottom?

First target March 2005,
if not, then 2001.

Sounds like a reasonable guide for buyers.

vg said...

Was looking at a chart this morning showing RE prices going back to the late 1800's based on real inflation and it was mind blowing.

Not sure if you have the same chart roger, but it clearly shows this is a 3-5 year correction coming still just in the US RE market. Couple that with the Bank of Canada, TD and Merrril Lynches new comments yesterday and this hasn't even begun to hit Canada yet. Sitting pretty will be in alot of pain trying to pump this overpriced pig for much longer.

Basically the same old hockey stick chart but showed how the if you bought in any of the boom peaks of all time it took you decades to get back to even.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:40, YOURS is the ONLY roller coaster in the world that runs ASS-BACKWARDS.

Nice try. The bottom is ahead of us, not behind. In case you hadn't noticed (and you'd better believe we HAVE and have been trumpeting it daily), prices are falling while inventory is rising.

If you can't quit your habitual lying, please stfu.

Anonymous said...

From Canadian plunge o meter:

“Price support target for Canadian real estate could easily be FEB 2005. If support does not hold then look to FEB 2001 for the next level of support.”

THIS IS A GOOD GUIDE FOR BUYERS.

12:39pm is just a mean and slow mind person.