Cheers Roger for being so cool about sharing material, you're an open source hero.
Every spring/summer, buyers buy and sellers sell more units than every fall/winter. Of course, the MSM proclaims this perfectly normal cycle as something more newsworthy than it really is. There is no disputing that this summer
Roger's done up some dandy graphs demonstrating the trend as we move into the fall. This first graph shows you the three month trend of new listings (green) and sales (blue).
Please note that sales have been fairly consistent through these months (which is not grossly abnormal, though I would have expected the peak volume month to be May or June, not July) but they have still declined into August.
This next graph really shows the decline over time. Each bar shows the total of the previous four week's activity.
This last graph makes it look like total listings are falling off a cliff. They are not. This is perfectly normal and inventory, while not high, is certainly not at a level that will support sustained upwards price pressure.
Months of inventory for the week ending August 21 is: 4.7 ish. Average prices were flat or falling between July and August. The rest of the year should show declining sales volumes, flat inventory levels and I would guesstimate an average SFH price drop from today's levels by about 5%, showing an annual average price change of + or - 3% from 2008. Industry will spin this as "stable." I'll tell you I think the numbers are really a disappointment considering the volume of FTBer's brought into the market by "free" money. The bubble didn't burst, but it didn't get hyper-inflated either. What will happen next remains to be seen.