The market's falling in Victoria. Sales are way down and prices are slowly starting to recede. But this isn't like 2008. And I can't say with certainty that it will continue to play out like 2008 did, with a substantial correction over a short period of time.
These are the numbers for SFH purchases in September 2010 and 2009 excluding waterfront and acreages:
- there's only 6.7 months of inventory - just barely into buyers market territory
- Days on Market is just over a week longer - hardly cause for concern for most home sellers
- Average prices are roughly the same - not enough to make people trying to sell feel like they're losing money, yet
- Unit sales are down 20% and falling fast
- Over half of all listings put on the market remain unsold
- Yet prices are up 9% year over year
- And the homes that sell are still selling 16% faster than they did last year
Don't get me wrong, things are ugly in our market, but the inputs still look fairly stable: employment is steady, incomes are steady and interest rates are steady. In my opinion, what's happening in our market is people are getting better quality homes for the same money as a year ago. This is next to impossible to quantify in data, but if it's true and the trend continues we'll start to see more homes selling for less as the upper end of the market pushes down. But it's going to take more time than six months to reflect in the numbers and I don't see it as cause for a wave of panic selling, yet.