Friday, January 7, 2011

Meaningless real estate statistics

The real estate statistics that are meant to tell the general public how healthy the local market is, are, well, basically meaningless as they are presented.

And they're meaningless on purpose, because it's easy to cook the statistics when you don't provide any analysis behind what they actually mean and how current market conditions might be responsible for misleading statistics.

Case in point: Royal LePage's unpaid advertisement (though their PR department likely costs them some sheckels) reprinted without a shred of balance or analysis in the Times Colonist today. (H/T Alexandrahere).

Here's the headline: Condominiums lead price gains

Funny that, for a guy who barely scans headlines anymore because of a lack of faith in local journalism, this headline makes me think that prices for all condominiums rose by more than any other property type. Except immersed in the market as much as we are around here we know this to be utter and total bullcrap.

Let's juxtapose this statement summing up the article in one sentence:
The survey noted prices increased in all housing types with standard condominiums leading the way with price gains of 7.5 per cent to $285,000 compared with the fourth quarter of 2010.
With what Just Jack wrote in the comments of the previous post here (he's in the know):
The median price for a non new 800 to 1000 square foot non view condominium in the core municipalities for the last 90 days of 2010 was $255,000.

The same median for the same period in 2009 was $272,000. A year over year drop of 6 percent.

The volume of sales also dropped 32 percent from this time last year.

The number of days to sell also increased 156 percent from 23 to 59 days.

The last time the median for this condominium grouping was at this level was the last 90 days of 2007 when the median was $252,000. The number or sales was also 30 percent higher then and it only took some 16 days to sell.

Condominiums have failed to build equity through appreciation for the last three years. The best way to insure that you will be priced out of buying a single family home is to buy a condominium.
Moral of the story? If a bunch of discounted luxury property sells in a down market, it doesn't make the market, it skews the statistics. The real estate industry does everyone--themselves, the media that nauseatingly repeats their press releases without a shred of analysis, the buyers and the sellers--a great disservice by presenting market data like they do.

72 comments:

Mr.4AM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mr.4AM said...

Un-F'in believable!. Seriously, how do realtors and their associations write this stuff and sleep at night? The truth couldn't be more opposite to their claims. Real Estate affordability doesn't stem from cheap credit, low interest rates, lax lending rules and other government subsidies - that's the recipe for the formation of bubles and what the governments around the world have been cooking, and which has precisely led to real estate collapses, fiscal and financial crisis and the empovirishment of millions. It's even more unbelievable that the sheeple here in Canada continue to drink this stuff like they're at a bottom-less Kool-aid buffett.

Mr.4AM said...

The above, coupled with the example in HHV's post are truly sad. What's sadder to me is that so many of my friends - people who are kind and have good hearts, but are otherwise oblivious to details - have fallen for this mess hook line and sinker, and will be struggling with huge debts for the rest of their lives. If there is one root lesson from all this is that, as the Eastern saying goes - "Ignorance is the root of all suffering."

My generation is going to be learning one hell of a lesson this decade, that much I am sure of.

MR.4AM

PS. Appologies for venting the anger, but stuff like this crosses and exceeds my tolerance threshold.

jesse said...

An industry association spins the numbers? I'm shocked, shocked!

Marko said...

Sometimes I just shake my head. Why does it seem most articles regarding real estate are poorly researched, analyzed, and commented on?

Leo S said...

Hmm.. I think we're being unfair on both sides. The TC cherry picks 4th quarters, Just Jack cherry picks some subsegment of the market that happens to have underperformed.

Reality is that condo median increased 3.4% from 2009 to 2010.

Overall I'd say the TC article is at least somewhat more fair. Sure it's only using 4th quarters, but given that that is the most recent quarter I'd say it's excusable.

Using some small segment of the condo market to show a decline is not useful.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

"Sometimes I just shake my head. Why does it seem most articles regarding real estate are poorly researched, analyzed, and commented on?"

Because they are.

"Using some small segment of the condo market to show a decline is not useful."

The segment is not as small as you think. It's the meat and potatos of the condo market, without the gravy.

Leo S said...

The segment is not as small as you think. It's the meat and potatos of the condo market, without the gravy.

Condo over 1000sqft is not gravy. That's normal for 2 bed, 2 bath places from the 90s or older.

On the other side, there are lots of condos smaller than 800sq ft. Those restrictions are artificial.

phil said...

Decades for Home Prices to Recover

says Moody's Analytics

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Decades-for-home-prices-to-cnnm-1435904245.html?x=0

Anyone have an estimate when we regain our price peak?

DavidL said...

@Phil wrote: Anyone have an estimate when we regain our price peak?

My prediction is that really estate prices will slowly slide down through 2014, reaching 2005 values (or lower). They will be stagnant through 2018, not matching inflation. Prices then maybe slowly begin to go back up. (Queue the next bubble for 2025?)

As long term predictions for inflation/deflation are next to to impossible, I don't know if real estate prices will ever "recover". Perhaps the mainstream sentiment will be that it is not worth spending 50%+ of your income for 30+ years just to own your own home.

Marko said...

First of all, we are not too far off (%) peak prices.

4 to 6 years is my wild guess, interest rates being the largest variable.

Even if you bought a home in Victoria at the worst possible time in the early 1980s or mid 1990s a decade later you were significantly up.

I was looking at some VIHA numbers this morning, and things are certainly not at a standstill. Government is not hiring right now, but they probably will again in a few years.

"The Vancouver Island Health Authority had over 16,000 employees in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2007. Of those 1,512 earned in excess of $75,000"

"The Vancouver Island Health Authority had over 17,000 employees in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010. Of those, 2,245 earned in excess of $75,000"

So in 4 to 6 years we should see some job growth and salary gains.

The number one reason I am guessing peak prices again in 4 to 6 years is ridiculously expensive land development in Victoria. Fixed costs in construction have also dramatically increased in the last 5 years due to building permit costs, code upgrades, environmental standards, warranties, etc.

The combination of the two will not spur development, and most of it is going to be in the Western communities and beyond. Supply of real estate in the core will remain relatively constant other then the occasional building downtown. Demand to live in the core will exist and I can only see increasing as oil goes back towards $150 and people get tired of sitting in traffic every day.

Leo S said...
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Leo S said...

Anyone have an estimate when we regain our price peak?

Return to the peak? In terms of yearly averages we are at the peak!
Inflation adjusted yearly averages 1978 to 2010

Let's re-examine this question once we've actually had some YOY drops. Aside from our little lighting crash and subsequent recovery, we're still cruising along at the peak levels that we reached April 2008.

phil said...

Agreed Marko, oil most likely briefly mounts $100 again. Although, I’m not sure it puts less downward pressure on core property than outlying areas, as I think the core price spread might already be too wide due to the 2008 oil spike scare. Regardless, oil’s approximate 5 year cycle should see it tumble again by 2013. Oil (not surprisingly) has been following the business cycle quite closely.

Industrial utilization chart (business cycle) http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCU

I suppose my ‘Moody’s recovery’ estimate is similar to DavidL - prices slide until about 2017 then stagnate for several years. When do they recover their peak nominal levels of last decade? No idea, but one of the biggest question marks i have is, what do the majority of retiring baby-boomers do with their property portfolio this decade and next?

Marko said...

"Although, I’m not sure it puts less downward pressure on core property than outlying areas"

I agree, even $150 oil wouldn't be a big factor. I think the crticial point will be $2 per liter at the pump, and I think we will see this within the next 5, most certainly, next 10 years.

Introvert said...

Supply of real estate in the core will remain relatively constant other then the occasional building downtown. Demand to live in the core will exist and I can only see increasing as oil goes back towards $150 and people get tired of sitting in traffic every day.

So true, Marko. Living in the core is so valuable not only in terms of resale but increased quality of life, i.e., not wasting hundreds of hours a year sitting in your car. So glad I chose the core.

phil said...

My bet is oil spends most of this decade in the $40 to $70 range, but we’ll know soon enough. You have to remember it was only about a decade ago that oil went as low as $10, and that was in the middle of one of the greatest speculative bubbles in history - the tech bubble. In other words, a lot of the price of oil, gold, silver… right now is speculative in nature. Also, even for the expensive heavy tarsand oils, the cost of production is now falling below 50 with technology improvements. Price always reverts to cost, as competition is the basis of capitalism.

Just Jack said...

All right, let's get rid of the issue of cherry picking and keep the condo parameters WIDE OPEN and see if there is any significant difference.

The last 90 days of 2010 had 280 condominium sales at a median price of $278,850 and took a median 62 days to sell.

The last 90 days of 2009 had 352 condo sales at a median price of $292,600 and a median 30 days to sell.

Prices down 4.7%
Number of sales down 20%
Days to sell up 107%

So basically the same direction in prices. Although, bulls can now say that the numbers are skewed with high price sales, small condos, big condos, new condos, view condos, etc.

But the conclusion is the same. Prices and sales activity are down and the time to sell is up.

Leo S said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Leo S said...

@Just Jack. It appears your criteria is now the same as from the TC article (all condos in the fourth quarter of 2009 vs 2010).

And yet the numbers show opposite trends. So is that purely because of the difference between using the average and median? I assume they use average price..

Dave said...

Leo S...says
Anyone have an estimate when we regain our price peak?

when I bought my house in new westminster in 1995, it took until 2003 to get back to that price. 8 years

Dave#1

omc said...

The 8 years thing sounds realistic, but it depends on how far we go down. I don't think we will see any larger drops until the interest rates rise.

Rhino said...

lets be honest, nobody has predicted the "crash" right yet, so predicting the recovery is kind of laughable.

Mr.4AM said...

Phil said: "My bet is oil spends most of this decade in the $40 to $70 range, but we’ll know soon enough. You have to remember it was only about a decade ago that oil went as low as $10, and that was in the middle of one of the greatest speculative bubbles in history - the tech bubble. In other words, a lot of the price of oil, gold, silver… right now is speculative in nature. Also, even for the expensive heavy tarsand oils, the cost of production is now falling below 50 with technology improvements. Price always reverts to cost, as competition is the basis of capitalism."

Phil, couldn't disagree more with your upcoming PM & Oil predictions.

PMs are going to at least double if not triple in the next 2 years. Way too much money printing going and many central banks willing to buy PMs in huge quantities. When the financial recovery is nearly here (3 to 6 years from now?), and when central banks start selling, not buying PMs, then prices will come down... until then, up, up and UP.

Oil may break $140 again this year. For sure it will stay above $100 through summer. After that, due to "peak oil" (google that and youtube search it), it will stay fairly high for years to come, although oil is different than other comodities in that it impacts the price of nearly everything else. So Oil can never go to the proverbial 'moon', because somewher e along the uptrend, it will trigger global recessions, and then demand will fall again until a floor/support level is found. But do not discount the peak oil theory... each new floor for the next 10 years is highly likely going to be higher than the previous one.

Mr.4AM

Marko said...

Monday, January 10, 2011 8:30am:

MTD January
2011 2010
Net Unconditional Sales: 60 418
New Listings: 264 1,211
Active Listings: 2,889 2,793

Please Note

Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

Alexandrahere said...

Morning all. Here are my stats for the week of Jan 3 - Jan 9:

SFH: Min 2 beds & 2 baths, priced between $375K & $775K in the areas of Victoria, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, Saanich East and Saanich West.

NEW: 26
SOLD: 5
P/C: 12
OM: 6

Average Selling Price: $521K
Median Selling Price: $545K

SFH within this criteria sold for 92.8% of the original asking price.

Of the six sold, 3 i.e. half of them went for under BC assessment.

Of the 26 new listings, 13 are advertised as having suites and three with potential suites.

Condos:

Min two bedrooms, priced between $360K and $675K. In the areas of:

Victoria: Most areas
Oak Bay: All areas
Esquimalt: All areas
Saanich East: Most areas
Saanich West: Gorge, Tillicum and Interurban.

NEW: 13
SOLD: 5
P/C: 3
OM: 8

Average Selling Price: $381K
Median Selling Price: $350K

Condos went for 95% of original asking price.

Of the 5 condos sold, 3 went for under BC assessment.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

Wow. Are sales off to a rough start in January?

Let's compare the first 10 days of January with the first 8 days in November 2010:

Month to date November 8, 2010
Net Unconditional Sales: 131
New Listings: 192
Active Listings: 3,749

January's sales to new listings ratio is 22%. Though inventory is very low relative right now, almost 900 fewer listings than early November 2010.

Just a meaningless glimpse through the window at how the year is starting ;-)

Doug said...

Mr. 4am

I agree.
P.M.'s will be strong for a while and oil is not dropping anytime soon.
Peak oil does not mean the world is running out of oil soon so much as it means the world is running out of cheap to find and produce oil.

msr said...

@HHV,

While I'm always interested in stats I have never been keen on sub-monthly stats, particularly for a single week.

Of all the weeks that I would be likely to discount it would be early January. Fewer people are house hunting in December and so we have an unnatural low. What would really provide insight is how the week compares to other years.

Mindset said...

Interesting posts HHV and group. Glad to see this blog mature to the point where you can provide honest information to the public, and take a stand against those that benefit from misinformation.

Keep up the good work everyone.

Oh, and as for when housing will hit its peak again? That depends mainly on govt and bank manipulations of credit. The last six years of record house price increases were caused almost entirely by a flood of cheap taxpayer-backed money. The best predictions are going to come from estimates of how long we can keep the cheap money going and when the taxpayer-backed tank fuelling the market is going to run out of gas. Me, I think the tank is already sucking fumes... Paying for our current mess of borrowing is not going to come easy or cheap.

a simple man said...

A quick scan of the TC online headlines tells a big story:

"Capital region jobless rates up"
"Home building slows in Dec"
"B.C. condo swoon drives down building permits"

and from cbc.ca

"Housing starts drop 13%"

Coupled with "our" debt addiction and the massive inventory to hit the Victoria shores in the spring this could get very interesting.

a simple man said...

New BoC deputy governor yesterday:

Ms. Côté said “lower interest rates for secured lending and increased access to credit as house prices rose have helped fuel net increases in credit and have supported household spending in Canada in recent years. Going forward, house price gains are unlikely to provide the same support to household wealth as they have in recent years.

“This,” she added, “combined with the fact that the level of household debt has reached a record high, leads us to expect that the growth of household expenditures will slow to a pace closer to that of income.”

a simple man said...

Marko in the news:

Marko mania

a simple man said...

in a similar note....a new realty company in town - give half commissions back and have salaried agents.

http://spotlightrealty.ca/

check them out.

commuter12 said...

I'd just like to point out that the US real estate market crashed 5 years ago now. So far it doesn't look like a crash is in the making but who knows it could be just around the corner. If it doesn't crash this year though wouldn't you say that we are definetely different? Not trolling here I'm really asking why the heck there would be such a huge lag if the big crash is a sure thing.

Talus said...

Not trolling here I'm really asking why the heck there would be such a huge lag if the big crash is a sure thing.

Answer: Continued cheap credit (almost free) and lax lending practices due to Government backed loans (CMHC).

What borrower wouldn't want to get in before being "Priced out Forever"™ and what lender wouldn't want to collect on a no risk loan?

(Please don't answer that question)

omc said...

Good call on the market, on that video Marko.

Reid said...

commuter12, you provide a good question. Talus is correct as long as cheap and easy credit is made available to the general public along with long amortization periods our housing sector in the core cities will likely resist a major correction. I am amazed at how most Canadians never learnt anything from the 2008 credit crisis or the sovereign debt issues of the past 18 months. I look at my job/clients and I really have no idea if they will survive the next couple years let alone be here in five years, yet it seems most of the people I have met in Victoria have significantly increased their debt levels over the past two years and many to extreme levels. Many claim paying off their mortgage is now impossible before they retire. They obviously have no concern over their future income stream given they have all taken out 35 year mortgages. My wife and I have been hunkered down over the past two years. I took on more work while it is available and we cut expenses hard with the plan to save and save big. We are saving more than at any time in my life. Yet, we are totally abnormal as everyone else seems to be on a consumerism orgy at a time of serious global economic uncertainly. I have no idea how this will play out, but I suspect a lot of people will get seriously hurt because of their debt levels but it may still take a long time to show up.

a simple man said...

Reid - could not agree more and I see the same thing in my social circles - financial ignorance/irresponsibility. If I didn't experience it so repeatedly I would not believe it myself.

Now every time a nice volvo SUV or BMW passes me my first thought is "do they really own that?" or is it more of the veneer of wealth?

We, too, are hunkering down and saving like mad.

Reid said...

a simple man. Yes the running joke in our house is that any idiot who owns an overvalued house can buy a new bmw. The situation is even worse over in Vancouver.

dub said...

Now every time a nice volvo SUV or BMW passes me my first thought is "do they really own that?" or is it more of the veneer of wealth?

Funny, I tend to think the same thing, seeing so many Escalades and Range Rovers driving about these days. I swear there weren't so many just a handful of years ago....

omc said...

Lots of our social group are people who have very high incomes, but only one of them owns a BMW. He bought it used.

Actually, now I remember when a friend showed up about 5 years ago in a brand new Mercedes wagon. One guy inquired to whether he was taking up real estate, I made a crack about having to make up for a physical abnormality.

Dave said...

I find this hard to believe, How does a house sit on the market for about 3 months, then sell for overlist???
Can someone confirm this is a sale??
I have seen this in the past, then to come back on the market the next week.

4564 STRATFORD RD

Current Price $974,900 Date Listed Oct 18/10 Bedrooms 4
Price Original $974,900 Date Entered Oct 18/10 Bathrooms 3
Date Status Changed Jan 10/11 Ensuites 1
Date Sold Jan 10/11 Fireplaces 2
Sale Price $1,015,000 Kitchens 1

Dave #1

Mr.4AM said...

The Financial Post put out an article today on the "CMHC [moral] Hazard" written by Neil Mohindra, director of the Centre for Financial Policy Studies at the Fraser Institute.

The short of it is Neil is suggesting that if the Feds really wanted to deal with the excessive (leveraged) household debt of Canadians, to do away with the CMHC all together.

This of course would kill the real estate market overnight, and cause prices to plumet 30-50%, but one can dream ;-). At least they're starting to recognize of one of the root problems.

As much as I like all my 1/2 million dollar ++ house owning friends, I don't want to be on the hook for a decade for their financial orgies.

Mr4.AM

Marko said...

"I find this hard to believe, How does a house sit on the market for about 3 months, then sell for overlist???"

Totally weird. Might have included some furniture, or the wine collection? ha ha

I was in a somewhat situation similar to this 2 months ago. Condo listed for $274,900 and on the market for three months and my client was one of three people to make an offer on the same day. Sold for $275,000 ~ not to my client.

So I guess it could happen by random chance.

Marko said...

http://spotlightrealty.ca/

I cannot believe how quickly things are changing....wow!!

Animal Spirit said...

Marko - my guess is that the traditional RE selling model will be gone in 2-3 years - except for high-end speciality products.

That you are on the early side of the curve will really help you. The late movers to the new model will get creamed.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

And to think if you're shopping on price for real estate trading services Marko is already more competitive by a country mile than those old school agents at that spotwhatever place.

I urge you all to think twice before providing free advertising to agents who have done nothing here to deserve it ;-)

BTW, next time you drive past those new luxury cars, check out the drivers, they're young, they're hip, they're up to their eyeballs in debt in The Falls and 3 Point Motors... and they're bartenders at Sugar, and "consultants."

a simple man said...

Sorry - not meant to advertise their services, but rather to inform the readership that the model here is changing.

I agree that Marko offers more services.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

A simple man, no apologies necessary. And agreed, we'll likely see many "new" innovations in the way agents market themselves.

In other news, turns out Victoria is different, While Canadian new home prices hit a new high in November 2010, Victoria, along with Windsor, Charlottetown and St. Catherines, experienced falling new home prices.

Leo S said...

Well the key difference with those guys is the salary rather than commission.
They claim that realtors on salary takes away the conflict of interest, but of course unless that salary is paid by the buyer, it doesn't.
These realtors will still have the same pressure to sell houses quickly as any other realtor. The agency makes money from commissions, so of course there will be an under the table directive to sell as quickly and efficiently as possible.

I think the draw of the cash back will be short lived though. The only reason it works now is that the standard commission is still at the insane levels of ~6/3.5%. As fewer and fewer realtors are able to command that rate, the cash back business model will disappear if realtors want to stay in business.

Robert Reynolds - GBA said...

omc said...

Lots of our social group are people who have very high incomes, but only one of them owns a BMW. He bought it used.


I recently bought a "Baby Benz" 2006 C230 Sport, which is the cheapest car they make, used. Haggled the crap out of it too. I did finance some of it as my rate was 0.5% for 5 years, and my investments are beating the pants off that. I can write it off as well. So not the worst purchase.

I know one guy financing an $80,000 sports car at near credit card interest rates with next to nothing down, and without the ability to write it off. Ouch.

Marko said...

Sales are certainly slow to start the month!

DavidL said...

@Marco

There also appears to be many (re)listings added to my PCS. I see quite a few modest homes in the mid to high $400K's that would have been listed at least $50K higher six months ago.

omc said...

Things are slow now, just wait until the mortgage rates go up. Oh yeah, I forgot the people rushing into the market these days can actually afford it, according to the CREA. snicker, snicker

Animal Spirit said...

I'll run some stats and see if the listing distribution has changed over the last few months. Will be interesting to see.

Animal Spirit said...

from March of 2010, there has been a 50k drop in each of 10, 25 and 50 percentile ranges for price. That is, the median house that listed for 650-700 K nine months ago now lists for 600-650 K (or a 7.5% drop).

The 75 percentile listing house has dropped 100K in price from 900-950 K to 800-850K. Although potentially skewed by a smaller data sample, the 90 percentile house has also dropped 100K in listing price. For the higher end houses, this would be around a 10% listing price drop.

Since samples are never normal, this will all probably change in a few months.

Leo S said...

Meanwhile, outside of lala land, the meltdown continues at full steam
2011 to top 2010 record of 1 million foreclosures

DavidL said...

@Animal Spirit wrote: From March of 2010, there has been a 50k drop in each of 10, 25 and 50 percentile ranges for price ...

Thanks for the analysis. Do you have any tables or charts that you can share (Google Docs)?

Just Jack said...

I just can't see anyway of repairing this housing mess without falling prices. Perhaps Flaherty can try to slowly deflate home prices by increasing the down payment, decreasing amortizations, more restrictions on CMHC on non owner occupied or some combination of the aforementioned.

Modest CMHC changes would reduce prices in the Windsor - Quebec corridor of 16 million voters. Unfortunately BC is way out of line with typical home owners and prices. Any changes in CMHC regulations would cause the price deflation to be magnified on the west coast.

Once this starts, the central banks will tighten up even more in BC to reduce their exposure, just like the banks have been doing in the states.

Imagine being a director of Scotiabank and having to explain to the shareholders why the bank is lending on properties that they know will continue to lose value? Those directors should be updating their curriculum vitae about now.

BC will once again be the "whipping boy" of Canada. And the moving companies will once again be busy relocating people to where the jobs are in Central Canada.

Time to trade your raincoat in for a Parka and a case lot of mosquito repellent.

DavidL said...

A great idea (that I read elsewhere) would be for Flaherty to modify mortgage insurance rules so that the CHMC could only insure 90% of the value of a value of a high-risk mortgage. The lending agency would be responsible for the remaining 10%. As Canadian banks tend to be risk-adverse, I think that there would be a quick reduction in the number or mortgages offered to those who are "underqualified", and a much needed belt-tightening on HELOC's (home equity lines of credit). This approach would further help "slow down" the market.

Alexandrahere said...

HHV: Because I live close to the area of the Humboldt Valley/Downtown condos, I have also seen many, many "young" i.e. below the age of say 35 drivers coming in and out of these small and expensive bldgs driving newish BMWs and the like. I shake my head at them. Wonder if most of them are renting or buying.

LeoS: Wow, hope nobody is paying 3.5% com. on the sale of their house after the 6% on the first 100K. 3% has been the going rate for years.

On my PCS for this week: Only one condo has sold within my criteria thus far and it went for under BC assmnt.

Also loads of homes in the four core municipalities in recent weeks have gone for under assessed value not to mention some are even being listed at under assessment. This just wasn't happening 6 months ago.

phil said...

Interesting one in the Globe today. Tsur Somerville is always entertaining.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/pop-goes-the-housing-bubble/article1867849/

phil said...

I can't seem to hyperlink properly, just google 'pop goes the housing bubble'

HouseHuntVictoria said...

AlexandraHere, you'd be surprised how many agents are getting 7 and 4 % from their listings.

DavidL said...

From the "Pop goes the house bubble" article:

“The places that need to worry are those cities with an aging profile that don’t have big net immigration numbers and are seeing their young move to other places. I think there are some centres that fit that description that maybe should be worried.”

- Tsur Somerville, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate


Kinda sounds like Victoria, doesn't it ...

Introvert said...

Kinda sounds like Victoria, doesn't it ...

Or, it kind of sounds like the narrative we hear over and over again (which, of course, makes it true).

HouseHuntVictoria said...

You can see here that BC Stats expects Victoria's population growth rate between now and 2036 to be roughly half of what it was between now and 1986.

omc said...

I guess introvert is now going to share with us the names of companies that are hiring and paying high wages in Victoria that the young are flocking to. I can list you a dozen off the top of my head that have undergone downsizing in this last year. I can't think of a single one that is expanding at any appreciable rate.

I don't know if anyone caught the significance of the press release around Christmas time about the coming decrease in the civilian jobs for the DND by 14%. They also mentioned something about decreasing the # of reserves occupying full time positions. This one is having a massive effect right now as there are tons of reserve positions locally with anything from clerical to recruiting. Some of these reserves have been working full time for 20 years, and they are just getting the ax. They don't have a union and tend to work on a temporary contract to contract basis so they have no recourse.

a simple man said...

BCREA released stats today that state an average decline of 4.9% in Victoria real estate.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

^ here's the graphic

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