Monday, June 20, 2011

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

Month-to-date June 2011 (last week's numbers in brackets)
Net Unconditional Sales: 
368 (225)
New Listings: 912 (590)
Active Listings: 4,803 (4,742)
Sales to new listings ratio: 40% (38%)

June 2010 totals 
Net Unconditional Sales: 625
New Listings: 1,503
Active Listings: 4,730
Sales to new listings ratio: 41.5%
Sales to active listings ratio: 13% or 7.5 MOI 

Sales activity rose slightly from the previous week. This isn't out of the ordinary as mid-month sales volume has been busier than early month sales activity all year. This is the month for sales activity in the VREB area, sales volume typically declines as spring turns into summer then fall. Here's what it looked like last year:

Listings have likely peaked as well. Given the relatively crummy weather we've had, we may even see a listings pick-up over the coming weeks prior to the annual reduction of 1200-1500 listings we see every year as the spring/summer market ends.

Average reported prices are likely going to post gains month-over-month. This isn't because market values are rising; this is purely a case of more Honda's selling than Kia's.  


a simple man said...

response for the previous post - thanks JustWaiting - I agree that there is a spike in mid June (as per the graph) and I suspect it is so that families can get into their new home before the craziness of school starts (typical 2 month possession window) or before summer holidays start.

What is amazing to me is the 786 price changes in the past three weeks. And those price changes were not up.

Mindset said...

Carney holding everything steady again is interesting.

His (and others) dire warning of increasing national debt levels while at the same time being unable to implement any changes is very telling of the edge that our economy is now teetering on.

My guess is that he is seeing his changes taking effect in many of our markets (like Victoria), and is wondering if he has already done enough. Economies move quite slowly, and like steering a big ship, you turn the wheel, and you wait.

Watching and waiting said...

flip of the month, 1627 Hybury Pl (mls 294859), has already dropped the price 10k after 11 DOM to 719k.I can only guess the flipper has some big cash/time tied up in this one.Be interesting to see what it finally sells for.I see this home as the proverbial flipper's canary in a coalmine. Right now the canary seems to be nodding off just a bit.

a simple man said...

And St Anne's for sale sign is unceremoniously pulled out of the grass and laying on the steps. That flipper has been trying to sell for more than 6 months now.

The only reason it is not selling - price. It would sell at $675K.

Watching and waiting said...

S2 .. great description.Some sellers just do not get it nor does their realtor for that matter, who continues to market the languishing property, both hoping for that one 'special' buyer who has been completely oblivious to the market and what has been selling around them.

omc said...

are you still after that house on st anne, simple man?

a simple man said...

If it wasn't for my overly huge family I would have certainly bought it by now and used the leverage to lease BMW for my wife, a Landrover for me and coach bags for each of my daughters.

Dave said...

@a simple man
Here's a good explanation:
The TED spread is a gap between two interest rates, which is used as a marker of the financial strength of banks.

The TED, or Treasury Eurodollar, spread is calculated by subtracting the interest rate on treasury bills from the three-month dollar LIBOR.

The treasury bill rate is the interest rate paid by the U.S. treasury - often used to represent "risk-free" lending (on the assumption that U.S. government is always good for it), while the LIBOR is the rate at which banks lend to each other. Therefore, the difference in the two rates represents the "risk premium" of lending to a bank instead of to the U.S. government. At its lowest, the TED spread can be as low as 20 basis points, as it was in early 2007.[1] A TED spread this low occurs when banks are seen as strong and in good financial health; the risk of default or banktruptcy is low, and therefore other banks are willing to lend them money at nearly the risk-free interest rates paid by the U.S. government. By contrast, the Ted spread stood at 330 basis points in early October 2008, after a series of bankruptcies by banks and other financial insitutions that occured as part of the 2008 Financial Crisis. On October 10th, the TED spread hit a new record of 460 basis points, reflecting a breakdown in interbank lending.


a simple man said...

Very interesting, dave3. There is so much I don't know. Thanks for bringing some light.