Monday, August 15, 2011

Monday market update: invasion of the HAM

MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.

August 2011 (last week's numbers)
Net Unconditional Sales: 236 (116)
New Listings: 595 (296)
Active Listings: 4,843 (4,783)
Sales to new listings ratio: 39% (39%)

August 2010
Net Unconditional Sales: 425
New Listings: 956
Active Listings: 4,356
Sales to new listings ratio: 47%
Sales to active listings ratio: 9% or 10.25 MOI

Sales pace neither picked up nor declined over the second full week of August. I will confidently suggest we'll see over 500 sales in August, a fair bit better than last year, though a far cry from what you'd actually suspect a healthy August should look like given the performance of the local market between 2001 and 2010.

What's that I hear? Average sales price is high, almost record setting even, nearing the $690K mark? A few notable high-end sales coupled with the lack of low-end sales volume is dragging that average number up with the hot August air. Look for the TC to follow up with a puff piece citing one example of a home sold on St. Charles street to a foreigner from the old mainland - China not Richmond - as "a new wave of foreign buyers drive prices to record highs; Chinese discover Victoria gems!"

Just once, I'd love to see them write a story about how average reported prices are a waste of time in market conditions like this.

91 comments:

Davidson said...

I think it is the same with any correction. The wealthy keep buying even as the entry level are priced out, so initially prices skew upwards.

jesse said...

Victoria's balloon has a slow leak. Isn't it obvious?!?

omc said...

The monied are seeing what everyone here has figured out; interest rates aren't going up any time soon. We all know what low rates do to real estate prices. I can't see a price increase, but I see lessening downwards pressure in the future as people figure out we have at least another two years of emergency rates.

a simple man said...

then I rent for two more years and grow my savings as I walk along the beach loving life.

Renting is a no-brainer for me and if rentals remain constant then I am making out like a bandit and my wife has a huge smile on her face as the lululemon expense account has no limit on it and we get to exercise together every single day.

Davidson said...

Better not blame the HAMs unless you are sure. The HAMs are pretty much getting to be seriously disliked in Vancouver, even or especially by the Chinese Canadians- for their overt in-your-face nouveau riche materialism and disdain for recycling or anything to do with the environment.

Hopefully you wont have it spread across the Georgia Straights.

AandJ said...

I have been keeping track of the number of 3+ bedroom Craigslist rental units for the last couple of months out of personal interest.

Here is a graph of what I have recorded so far http://i56.tinypic.com/1t3osn.png

Being in the rental market for the last five years I have seen a significant jump in the number of listings. Even in the last couple of months we have gone from 400 to 500 listings at any one time.

Prices have also go up significantly. Where units used to go for about $1 sq/ft (or less), I'm seeing $1.50 and some times $2 sq/ft.

Disclaimer: This data is flawed in so many ways - listings can be duplicates and vary throughout the day to name just a two issues.

JustWatching said...

The ham that bought 620 St. Charles (a former B&B) was an out of town sucker that thought Victoria was like Vancouver. The asking price was 2.995 M and the sale price was 2.900 M which was 5K less. Was this a hot property? Nope it was on the market for 189 days, with no price reductions, before this fool hit town.

The buyers agent really represented his client on this one. Commission $$ take precedence over everything at this price level.

JustWatching said...

The assessed value of St. Charles was $1,735,000. Can BC Assessment be that far off?

robert reynolds said...

I know of a sale to HAM on Newport ave asking 3.6M purchase 3.2M sign up and down in 2 days. Look for an elevated avg price in aug.

AandJ said...

HDR rant continued...

Some one sold it here ($505k)?? Then someone else tried to sell here ($525k) but failed??

Regardless, just recycle the HDR pictures on your way to becoming Victoria's next Donald Trump (or while trying to stay solvent while the market slides).

Only $2000 for the upper or $1300 for the basement.

Oh, and the garage will be extra.

.

SuperBob said...

Very interesting that 620 St Charles is the Prior House Inn B&B. HAM may have bought it but they would never live in something that "old." This is purely speculative investment.

In the Chinese community, we are hearing more of mainland Chinese taking money from government businesses and laundering it in the form of high end houses. Why would you care if the value drops if it wasn't your money to begin with?

jesse said...

How do you know it's ham? B&B is a common refrain for established Asian immigrants who are looking for retirement income.

HunnyD said...

Marko, JJ

A listing by on Granville Ave just sold after almost a year on the market. Any idea how much it went for? Last summer it was @ 1.649 million and most recently listed @ 1.399 million. (House was about 99% complete before they stopped construction last summer)

Thanks!

EatMe said...

Can we have a more pointless conversation? 1 sale of a house to a suspected HAM? Really?

Marko said...

Granville Ave went exactly for 1.3 million.

HouseHuntVictoria said...

"Can we have a more pointless conversation? 1 sale of a house to a suspected HAM? Really?"

Ironic, isn't it?

jesse said...

"1 sale of a house to a suspected HAM?"

Hey when should perspective get in the way of a good story? Have you learned nothing from reading HHV's criticisms of biases in Victoria's RE market? :)

SuperBob said...

Jesse: I don't know it's HAM but Marko mentioned in the previous HHV comment thread that it went to a Chongqing buyer.

Leo S said...

Can we have a more pointless conversation? 1 sale of a house to a suspected HAM? Really?

Yeah, but can't you almost smell the fear in the air? Buy now people. Now that the HAM has started rolling in we will be at $1mil average by 2015.

Just Jack said...

I liked the property on Granville and actually took a look at it. A bigger main floor master bedroom would have been nice to have. Of the two homes on Granville and St. Charles my preference would have been the acreage home on Granville (if it were finished). But I really didn't want to get involved with a court ordered sale in this price range. That's for the more gutsy bloggers here.

And at 1.3 million, I couldn't see much upward movement in price once the property was finished.

As for buyers from China. Chongqing, at 30 million people, might just be the largest city in the world. Talk about downsizing to Victoria (population 250,000). I give them three years dealing with our tax system before they are out of here.

a simple man said...

Once the HAM starts to see the market drop they will be FAM (fleeing asian money).

Craig said...

"I give them three years dealing with our tax system before they are out of here."

Not really. You see, there is a reason that at 17% West Vancouver has one of the highest poverty rates in BC. It's because many park their families here while not declaring their overseas income.

It's a huge problem. Well, it would be if the govt had a clue. The local West Van politicians are still looking for these actual pockets of poverty in their municipality without realizing the true cause.

omc said...

HAM doesn't deal with our tax system. The family may move here, but the father will stay in China with the business visiting when able. No income tax is ever paid here.

As has been pointed out before, HAM is about money laundering. One of the loop holes about allowing Chinese to take money outside of the country is if they purchase a home in order to have their children to be schooled abroad. So what is more risky? The Chinese economy or RE here? Most economists expect some sort of day of reconning in the Chinese economy. RE is actually more stable here, and gives them an escape pod if needed.

This is the first I have heard of HAM in Victoria. I am not ready to call a trend.

omc said...

I wouldn't be surprised if VREB happens to mention HAM in their press release at month end if there is any way they can put some positive spin on the months sales. All it would take is the sales to be up from last year and/or the average $ to be higher... just like now.

a simple man said...

In Victoria, it is not the HAM I worry about, but rather the irrational CHICKEN (Caucasian, House-Insane, Credit-Kamikaze, Egocentric Nerds).

DavidL said...

... irrational CHICKEN ...

Too funny!

patriotz said...

"HAM is about money laundering... So what is more risky? The Chinese economy or RE here? Most economists expect some sort of day of reconning in the Chinese economy. RE is actually more stable here"

There are a few unconnected dots in the above.

Alexandrahere said...

With the interest rates likely not to rise until mid 2013....perhaps working people are just going to bury their heads in the sand, forge ahead & buy their dream home regardless of any other economic factors staring them in the face.

jesse said...

"it went to a Chongqing buyer"

If so then likely the capital is foreign. But I don't think there is any trend here. This property is likely viewed as a revenue opportunity not some flip job or tear down.

I see a bunch of this in Vancouver, a sub-market for "revenue" properties including B&B AKA boarding houses for temporary stay foreign nationals looking for something cheaper than a hotel.

Other ideas that are looked at: kennels and students. I kid you not, there are enough people needing revenue to retire they will do all sorts of crazy stuff.

Maybe Victoria is starting to look good compared to Vancouver on this front...

omc said...

The market tends to rise up to the max affordability. We can get mad and blame others, but that is the truth. With rates guaranteed low there just isn't much to pressure prices down. This is regardless of the economic stuff going on.

poetic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Animal Spirit said...

Just saw a house for sale with a bunch of well-sealed barrels in the driveway and beside that a big rectangular whole in the ground. What could that be? Removal of an old oil tank with contaminated soil (or oil)?

patriotz said...

"With rates guaranteed low there just isn't much to pressure prices down."

First of all rates aren't guaranteed low.

Second if buying is significantly more expensive than renting a price correction is inevitable even if rates don't go up.

Third as poetic pointed out falling demand (i.e. falling real incomes) can kill the market all by itself. You think the provincial government payroll is guaranteed going forward?

a simple man said...

All this borrowing without any earning is unsustainable.

Sometime all these borrowers will have to pay off their debt and it won't matter the interest rate because they haven't enough to cover the principal.

Jason said...

"You think the provincial government payroll is guaranteed going forward?"

It's almost guaranteed to lose $1.6 B immediately. When do we find out the results of the HST vote? They have already been on an unofficial hiring freeze since 2008, i suspect it can only get worse.

a simple man said...

I seem to remember Aug 25 as being when they said they may release the results of the HST.

Just Jack said...

If you want your property to sell, then you're going to have to list realistically. And in some cases, depending on the type of home and location that may be way back to 2006 price levels.

Like a townhouse in View Royal that originally sold in February 2006 for $410,000 and has just re-sold this week for $418,000.

For detached homes closer to town, the roll back is not as extreme such as 1500 square foot rancher in Lakehill that sold in September of 2008 for $424,000 and has just resold for $420,000.

And how about those who bought a completely renovated home in North Oak Bay in September 2005 for $582,000 and now 7 years later unload for $693,000 for a 19 percent gain. While the market for homes increased 33 percent during the same time. That's a lost potential gain in excess of $81,000 just because they wanted fresh paint and granite counter tops.

Something that every Chongqing buyer should learn. Real estate may go up in the long term, but only if you make an informed decision at the start.

But they can always pull the cash out now from the St. Charles property with high ratio CMHC insured mortgage then skip the country if the market goes belly up.

What other country is so damn stupid.

Just Jack said...

Some people wonder if there are any "deals" in real estate today.


The key is that you have to have a house to sell in an inflated area of home values and buy in an area that has few buyers.

Like selling a home on Fair Street in North Oak Bay for $700,000 and then buying a waterfront home on White Rock in Ten Mile Point for $1,000,000. A $300,000 difference for a substantial increase in life style. The percentage spread has never been this small before.

You just have to see the opportunity. Which is something that a out of town buyer can't see. Greater Victoria is unlike a lot of cities. It has pockets of good housing surrounded by crap. Someone from Chongqing isn't going to know that, there going mostly by price. But someone has to buy these overpriced homes.

Leo S said...

Precipitous drop in the price/assessed value for the lower end recently. I increased it to 30 sale median to reduce volatility but it seems to be an extended period of cheaper sales.

Will be interesting come October if it goes up again...

Just Jack said...

Someone asked awhile back -why would you not buy a condominium from the developer?

As long as you have educated yourself about market values for condominiums and the developer is taking bids - you should be okay.

But, if the condominium is located in an area of few comparable complexes with this developer being the only vendor to negotiate with, then you could overpay today and get financially burnt tomorrow.

Such as a condominium on West Saanich in Brentwood that was sold by the developer at a pre construction price of $360,000 in 2006 and re-sold this week for $305,000.

Real Estate isn't like sex, being the first doesn't mean you're not going to get an STD later.

Mindset said...

If we are talking about one sale, might I suggest HHVAM as the latest worriseome trend in Victoria RE?

(House Hunt Victoria Alberta Move).

Sorry HHV, couldn't resist, and of course I am guessing you landed in Alberta (worked for the acronym anyways)

Mindset said...

Precipitous drop in the price/assessed value for the lower end recently

Fascinating, thanks for the stats. Seattle prices eroded at the high end and low end first, wonder if we will follow a similar trend.

a simple man said...

Out at the Oak Bay Night Market last night. In the ScotiaBank window a huge sign that reads

"Borrow to get ahead".

What a twisted way of thinking. This is almost predatory.

Marko said...

560 Davida Ave just went 52k over asking....

Marko said...

""Out at the Oak Bay Night Market last night. In the ScotiaBank window a huge sign that reads

"Borrow to get ahead".

What a twisted way of thinking. This is almost predatory.""

I don't see any issues with it. Money is so cheap right now you are better off borrowing on most things. I've opted to put down only 20% on my condo and keep the rest, I've opted not pay off my student loans (interest is low, tax deductible), I would certainly not buy a new car with cash, last week you could have picked up staple company like BCE with a 5.8% dividend and borrowed on margin for significantly less, etc...

When I worked at VIHA young nurses and other professionals would always brag about how they paid of their student loans....and I would chuckle because there was a three year stretch where the government introduced the "millennium program," which decreased my student loans by $2,000 each year.

Yes, if you borrow cheap money and blow it on stupid things you won't get ahead.

You need to be smart with your money and I think paying in cash for everything, while noble, is not the way to go.

a simple man said...

and what do you do with the money you save not paying off student loans or paying for your condo?

Leo S said...

Fascinating, thanks for the stats. Seattle prices eroded at the high end and low end first, wonder if we will follow a similar trend.

I have another set for 550-900k SFHs but the price to assessment ratio is ~10% higher (at 102% there). Also there has not been any trend lower (which means that since assessments increased for 2011 it seems that segment has appreciated). However I also have much less data, only back to December.

Let's pool our money and pay off some enterprising realtor to get access to all the data. Then we can get some real stats to see how these measures behave over the long term.

Alexandrahere said...

Marko: I didn't realize about the forgiving of much of student loan money by the government. I am so happy as a taxpayer to know that I supplemented those students in a way to enable them to purchase several condo's instead of paying off their debt to me.

a simple man said...

alexandrahere - I paid off all of my student loans half way through my PhD, so please be gentle with me!

Jay said...

I agree with Marko "You need to be smart with your money"

That's why if a bank charged 0.0% interest right now I certainly wouldn't use it to buy condos or stocks. That's the thing about these multi-year downdrafts, they take many prisoners. For instance look at one of Canada's most prized stocks Suncor oil, down from about 47 to now under 30. All my friends were screaming to buy some when it went under 40. I'll wait until it hits low 20's thanks.

Jay said...

and that was in only a couple months, Suncor was over $70 per share in 2008. Funny how similar this year is turning out.

Leo S said...

I am so happy as a taxpayer to know that I supplemented those students in a way to enable them to purchase several condo's instead of paying off their debt to me.

You'll be happy to learn that if you get a job for the BC Government they will forgive 1/3 of the provincial portion of your student loans every year you work there.

Marko said...

"I am so happy as a taxpayer to know that I supplemented those students in a way to enable them to purchase several condo's instead of paying off their debt to me."

Does it make you happier to be financing student loans that are mostly wasted on booze and partying?

I have the option to take 9 years to pay of my loans and will rightfully exercise it!

Marko said...

I trade Suncor a lot and not even a year ago most of my trades were in the low 30s....so it went from low 30s to 47 back down to 29.xx. Big deal? I am stuck now holding it at $33 and change. The merger with petrocanada has taken time to develop and their management didn't move quickly enough in selling off the assets in Libya so the merger has cost a few billion extra. Long term I don't have any reservations holding this company. The world is not going to stop consuming natural resources anytime soon.


10/01/2010 12:43:18 Sold 100 SU.TO @ 33.92$ 3,387.05$ Executed Detail
09/21/2010 14:46:26 Bought 100 SU.TO @ 32.90$ -3,294.95$ Executed Detail

11/04/2010 11:15:07 Sold 100 SU.TO @ 35.41$ 3,536.05$ Executed Detail
10/27/2010 11:41:29 Bought 100 SU.TO @ 32.68$ -3,273.32$ Executed Detail

Alexandrahere said...

The constant "living on borrowed time" that many people in their 30's are now doing, will only lead to their eventual downfall. By then, the government (i.e. the people) will not be able to dig them out. We'll see who has been "smart with their money" in the not too soon future. Anyway, I do admire much of Marko's professionalism in terms of his way of doing business with his clients. Also, buying a new car I suppose makes sense at the current low interest rates if you are able to right the expenses off. Otherwise, get a bus pass, walk, cycle or buy the little old ladies next door 1995 Corolla with 27K clicks on it.

Trex said...

Off topic I know.
I have PCS questions I hope the experts can shed light on.

I was running PCS through a realtor on properties of interest. I then suspected my PCS listings were "screened" by listing company.

I emailed the realtor and said I wanted to reset my PCS account. I then also tried to set up a comparison PCS account through a competitor.

I now appear to have been "banned" from PCS.
After setting up a new email address I still cannot succesfully set up a PCS account (4 different realtors).
Are they logging and matching ISP's or what?

The silly thing is, I a really am a legitimate customer and simply want to moniter PCS for a year or so before possibly putting in offers.

Any avice?

Marko said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Marko said...

Trex, are you currently working with a realtor?

If yes, do not email me.

If no, email me and I can set you up on a PCS account.

Thanks, Marko

a simple man said...

Lots of chatter out there about the BoC keeping rates low (they kind of have their hands tied) but having CMHC change the rules to shorter amortizations (25 yrs?) and greater downpayments (10, 15, 20, 25%).

That would be totally wicked.

Animal Spirit said...

a simple man - do you have any links to the chatter - I'm interested in taking a look, but don't know where to. Thanks.

a simple man said...

try theeconomistanalyst.com or greaterfool.ca

Seen it in other places as well.

Just Janice said...

I'd be interested to know if the recent changes have actually had any impact on the prevailing prices in this market...I suspect that the impact is disproportionate to the 'first time buyer' rung of the market as those individuals who are move up buyers likely have a large amount of equity that the housing casino has payed them in the last 7 years.

I suspect it might take a while for the impact to feed into the other areas of the market as the supply of move up buyers is choked off.

Trex said...

Marko,

Thanks for the response to my question.
As a long time reader of this and other real estate forums I appreciate your advice and input.
And in answer to your question, no I am not working with a realtor.
And I appreciate your offer of further information.

However as I am not shopping in the Victoria region of VI I would have preferred a local realtor to supply me with PCS.

As a general question do some realtors consider providing PCS to an individual a "relationship" and are they then justified in considering themselved the "buyers sole representative" ?

Trex

Frannie said...

Borrow to Get Ahead. Isn't this the same organization that advised people to borrow against the equity in their homes because "You're Richer Than You Think"???

Sweetrealtor said...

Interesting read, we are poorer than we think. http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2011/08/02/PoorerThanYouThink/index.html

Sweetrealtor said...

@Trex.
When a real estate agent puts someone on PCS/Portal, he/she is hopeful that you will turn into a future client. However, I would say it does not immediately constitute a working relationship with the agent. There may be agents who would try to argue that it does create a relationship but it's a pretty thin argument if you aren't contacting the agent for more information or viewings.

Sweetrealtor said...

I should also point out that the local board may disagree too. For someone to search MLS listings from within an agent's website in Victoria, they have to register as a client of the agent for this to happen. This is essentially the same as signing up for PCS/Portal, screened access to MLS listings. But it is also a moot point. The agent who sets you up on PCS can't do anything if you decide to work with a different agent. It's still a free country and you haven't signed an exclusive buyer agent contract with the agent.

jesse said...

"it might take a while for the impact to feed into the other areas of the market as the supply of move up buyers is choked off"

It's hard to say. In 2008, the west side of Vancouver fell faster than any other area. BC's bubble has been going on for so long I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy mix of distress across all echelons of society.

Just Jack said...

I could see the "better" neighborhoods of Greater Victoria having a larger fall both in percentage and lump sum than other areas.

And my reasoning is that while some areas, like Sooke, are already deflating in value, other areas closer in to Victoria City have only flatened out with some minor roll backs to 2008 price levels. Yet parts of Victoria, like Fernwood and Fairfield have continued to inflate.

A recession in housing would be like hitting the re-set button. Everything has to return to a balance. Fairfield will once again be slightly higher than Oaklands or Fernwood.

And crOAK BAY will... well it will just be half as crazy as it is today.

When will the boil on Victoria's bottom be lanced is still a guessing game. But the longer the market festers the oozier it will be.

hmmm, all of a sudden I have a craving for a jelly doughnut.

Marko said...

Maybe parts have continued to inflate because people want to live there for various reasons?

The spread is no where as bad as Vancouver. A downtown Vancouver condo that goes for 650k you can get in Surrey next to a skytrain station for 260k-270. That is an insane premium for a skytrain ride.

Just Jack said...

As more and more homes sell under their assessed value, at least we'll be able to bury one of the many myths of real estate. That homes are always worth more than their assessed value.

Eventually, we will get to the mother of all myths....

Location, location, location.

Chris said...

I've got another "mother of a myth"
as to why core metros have held up better. Ever since oil spiked so high right before the credit meltdown it's fanatical how many average Joes believe in peak oil. 50 plus years easily before we start to hit technological depletion limits, and by that time alternate energies will thrice advanced. It's the exact same brainwashed reasoning as past tops too; emerging markets, we're running out, lying OPEC, ..the list goes on. My brother in-law was showing me some old news articles as the last oil cycles were peaking and it's hilarious how you could simply cut and paste from 1950, 1980 into tomorrow's newspaper and Joe would think "ye, that makes sense, we're running out!" "It's different this time than in 1981" I'll save my other core theory for another time cause tgif!

SilverSurfer said...

Chris, you'd be more credible if you could concretely discredit the peak oil theory. Oil, unlike paper dollars, is finite - the only question is when. Nearly all analysts I follow, suggest it is either already happening or will occur within the next 2-5 years... max.

Jason said...

Whether or not peak oil is real is moot. $1.30 at the pump is real. And even worse, traffic is real. I'm happy not to be commuting from Sooke or Mill Bay.

omc said...

The Oak Bay lunacy continues with a big bidding war on the fixer-upper on Westdowne. $56k over asking. The buyers have no idea how much it costs to renovate at that level. They sure aren't leaving much room starting at near $700k in that neighborhood. From the state of that house, I would say they are paying for the lot only. It looks like Lansdowne is now more expensive than south Oak Bay.

Just Jack said...

The Victoria real estate market was burning hot, hot back in 2007.

Anything would sell at ridiculous prices. First time buyers desperate to get into the market were suckered into making bad decisions. Like buddying up with friends or buying leasehold town homes on First Nation's land.

Now, with withering demand and lots of inventory, those mistakes are taking their toll. Such as the townhouse on Admirals that was bought in 2007 for $191,000 and just re-sold for $146,000.

You wonder if the previous owner would have listened, if they had been told that the town home had been bought a year earlier in 2006 for $131,000 and that over paying today will have consequences when it comes time to sell.

I doubt they would have listened to anyone and neither would the people who bought on Westdowne. Most certainly the buyer of this property is looking back at the sales of renovated homes over the past few years along Westdowne and anticipating a substantial profit.

But, the market has changed.

a simple man said...

It actually seems like there have been quite a few sales in Oak Bay this week. Lunacy never sleeps, even behind the tweed curtain where everything closes by 6pm.

omc said...

Just Jack, The Oak Bay market hasn't changed yet. If anything the lesser areas like Lansdowne are probing all new highs. WAY over valued now as compared to historical norms. Lansdowne was always MUCH cheaper.

Just Jack said...

Yes, OMC

It's location, location, location for Oak Bay.

Meanwhile, in the rest of the world...

a simple man said...

Truly - the Lansdowne flats have gotten out of hand. The prices places are selling at are strange, even for Victoria.

These houses bought now will eb the ones that will correct hard in the years to come. Still waiting for the Sandowne flip to finish up. Second coat of stucco on - the colour? Flipper beige, of course - puke!

happy renter said...

Can anyone give me some idea of what houses on Westdowne have been going for in the last few months? Just wondering since they're likely outside the range of my PCS account (SFH under %600,000).

Alexandrahere said...

Happy Renter: 2987 Westdowne sold for 681K.

Here are some interesting stats:

Within my criteria in Vic,Esq,OB,SE & SW:

8 Aug - 14 Aug

7 condos sold .... 71% went for below assessment

22 SFH sold....50% went for below assessment

15 Aug - 21 Aug

5 condos sold ...63% went for below assessment

4 townhomes sold ...75% went for under assessment

18 SFH sold...61% went for under assessment.

True, as Marko mentioned, assessment have gone up from last year, but still, these stats do paint a picture.

Mindset said...

chris says peak oil is 50 years off and by then we will have technology to replace it?

Wow, you make it sound like an unfounded conspiracy theory. Care to say where all the extra oil is hiding, or what is going to replace it?

If there is so much oil, why all the wars, high prices, and fuss over finding more? All just part of the ruse?

patriotz said...

True, as Marko mentioned, assessment have gone up from last year

Because prices on or around July 1, 2010 were higher (generally) than on or around July 1, 2009.

So if properties are now selling below assessment it means... complete the sentence.

Marko said...

I work with a lot of buyers and along with that comes showing a lot of homes. Okay, so more homes are selling below assessed; however, I am not seeing any screaming deals.

This is what I often come across in the core.

2535 Scott Street just sold for $399,000. Based on comparables in the area this home has been worth about $399,000 for the last 4 years but look at what the assessment did...

2007 - $343,800
2008 - $415,600
2009 - $415,600
2010 - $446,000
2011 - $470,000

For August the average sold SFH price is 665k and assessed value is 620k. Median is 585k.

In July average sold SFH price was 581k and assessed value 577k.

Quite a bit of variability month to month.

Chris said...

Apologies to the peak oilers, I brought up oil to help explain why core prices are holding up. It's easy enough to prove we're nowhere near peak, however this is not the forum. All I will say is, you first have to read and research beyond the 98% who vehemently believe. The nice thing is, if you don't feel like doing any research, you won't have to wait long for the outcome. I expect after rising to near one hundred again, oil by next year will find itself in the forties.

Marko said...

I don't think OPEC would like that price.....Suncor's cost per barrel was about $39 last year - with oil in forties oil sands and many other operations around the world would come to a halt. The Saudi's can only pump so much.

However, I don't think we will see $150/barrel any time soon with the state of the global economy.

PS. I don't think peak oil theory has to do much with core prices. At the end of the day gas is still cheap in Canada at $1.30/L compared with incomes. Just take a look at the cars - the smallest Toyota you can get is the 1.5L Yaris. In Europe Toyota sells two models smaller than the Yaris and the Yaris starts with a 1.0L 51 horsepower engine. Gas prices are not affecting the majority judging by the amount of trucks & large cars on the road.

I think it has more to do with lifestyle and not spending 1+ hour in your car every day.

Appeal of an area like Fernwood is you can buy a house in a location where your kid can walk to Oaklands, Lansdowne Middle, and Vic High. That is 12 years of not having to pick up/drop off your kid from school. If you happen to work at VIHA, UVIC, or downtown all are easy bus commutes, etc.

patriotz said...

But you don't have to buy in Fernwood to do all that, you can just rent.

The "amenities" argument for inflated prices (relative to rents) is bogus for that reason. It's the market rent which indicates the true utility of living anywhere.

Of course the buyers don't get it, but if they got it there would never be bubbles in the first place. But Mr. Market gets it, and he always has the last word.

Robert Reynolds - HMR Insurance said...

Vancouver housing market faces biggest risk of downturn

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2011/08/22/5288423.html#ixzz1VltplR9m

Marko said...

Monday, August 22, 2011 8:00am:

MTD August
2011 2010
Net Unconditional Sales: 354 425
New Listings: 845 956
Active Listings: 4,821 4,356

Please Note

Left Column: stats so far this month
Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

Marko said...

SFH Average Month to Day = 665k
Condo Average Month to Day = 313k