You can read the spin, or you can learn the truth. Year over year, single family home prices in the VREB reporting area fell by 8.4% between December 2010 ($647,063) and December 2011 ($595,582).
Marko Juras gives us the sales volume breakdown in unit sales and dollar amounts:
2007 = 8,931 unit sales: 12.23%
2008 = 6,519 unit sales: (27.01%)
2009 = 8,096 unit sales: 24.19%
2010 = 6,546 unit sales: (19.15%)
2011 = 6,040 unit sales: (7.73%)
2005 - $3,206,969,321
2006 - $3,373,171,099
2007 - $4,146,651,569
2008 - $3,111,882,746
2009 - $3,775,730,705
2010 - $3,239,493,835
2011 - $2,981,977,290
No matter how many times industry reps repeat the "balanced market" mantra, the numbers don't live up to the lie. It wasn't a balanced market. Not compared to 2010, nor 2009, nor even the height of the dismal 2008 market. 2011 was an absolute stinker compared to 2007. A flop when evaluated against 2006 and just "a wee bit off" when you go so far back as 2005. Truth be told, you have to go back a decade to find a market like this past year. Remember then? That was back when everyone was telling you that real estate was a horrible investment.
It's true though: when expressed as an annual average, the market only fell by just under 3%. Until you add in inflation to your loss, which effectively doubles it. Heck. A piddly little one year GIC paid better than Victoria single family home real estate last year.
But don't worry if you bought last spring, you're in it for the long haul right? Hopefully you bought in Fernwood.
Marko Juras gives us the sales volume breakdown in unit sales and dollar amounts:
2007 = 8,931 unit sales: 12.23%
2008 = 6,519 unit sales: (27.01%)
2009 = 8,096 unit sales: 24.19%
2010 = 6,546 unit sales: (19.15%)
2011 = 6,040 unit sales: (7.73%)
2005 - $3,206,969,321
2006 - $3,373,171,099
2007 - $4,146,651,569
2008 - $3,111,882,746
2009 - $3,775,730,705
2010 - $3,239,493,835
2011 - $2,981,977,290
No matter how many times industry reps repeat the "balanced market" mantra, the numbers don't live up to the lie. It wasn't a balanced market. Not compared to 2010, nor 2009, nor even the height of the dismal 2008 market. 2011 was an absolute stinker compared to 2007. A flop when evaluated against 2006 and just "a wee bit off" when you go so far back as 2005. Truth be told, you have to go back a decade to find a market like this past year. Remember then? That was back when everyone was telling you that real estate was a horrible investment.
It's true though: when expressed as an annual average, the market only fell by just under 3%. Until you add in inflation to your loss, which effectively doubles it. Heck. A piddly little one year GIC paid better than Victoria single family home real estate last year.
But don't worry if you bought last spring, you're in it for the long haul right? Hopefully you bought in Fernwood.
214 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 214 of 214@Introvert
"he no longer has the energy to repudiate even half of my claims"
You post you claims so that they can be repudiated? Maybe HHV has better things to do with his time.
As much as I love Just Jack's wit and insights, I believe that he previously turned down the offer. If HHV is looking for a successor, I nominate Animal Spirit.
Back to the discussion ...
The slow fall of Canada's mortgage lending rates, 1990-2011
Thanks. That works.
Your quite right Introvert. I should spend more time on my posts and proof read them. Less comedy would be a good idea too.
One should always strive for perfiction.
"You are ignoring the fact that the market at some point, whether it be 5 or 15 years, will turn up and there will be capital gains."
That's not a fact, that's a hope. That you would describe it as a fact speaks volumes.
Also you can have capital gains on a property and still lose a lot of money on it.
The comedy is part of the reason we tune in so don't stop! :)
Friday comedy ...
The Realtor on YouTube
That's funny, I think I saw that "cozy Victorian" around here.
Don't think that my better half would let me run a blog. I'd definitely contribute if someone else wanted to take the lead on putting posts up, etc. That said, this is HHV's space, so it is his call - simply having the blog for these last few years has been more than worthwhile.
Now, what will the effect of 2.99% rates be on the market? HGH, tesoterone, blood doping or LSD?
The 2.99% mortgage has some restrictions that will make its impact beyond headlines negligible.
This blog is dead. HHV capitulated and bought a house, and you lot are still here wringing your hands and hoping for a crash. Pathetic. Meanwhile, true blue oak over at Vibrant Victoria is leading the charge for the bears, but he's an army of one.
In the past 11 days there have been 214 comments posted - or about 20 comments a day. This blog doesn't seem dead to me ...
More active than most blogs. And look, even our old trolls are back. This blog is on the upswing!
Animal Spirit, this graph link may help answer your question on the falling interest rate of 2.99%
Can rising interest rates signal rising Victoria prices?
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