MLS numbers courtesy of the VREB via Marko Juras. These numbers are for the Victoria Real Estate Board's reporting area, including Sooke, Shawnigan Lake and the Gulf Islands.
March 2012 month to date
Net Unconditional Sales: 570 (433, 281, 152)
New Listings: 1385 (1066, 760, 465)
Active Listings: 4274 (3997, 3908, 3832)
Sales to new listings ratio: 41% (41%, 37%, 33%)
Sales to active listings ratio: 13% or 7.5 MOI
March 2011
Net Unconditional Sales: 622
New Listings: 1501
Active Listings: 4100
Sales to new listings ratio: 41%
Sales to active listings ratio: 15% or 6.6 MOI
209 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 209 of 209Some mention of stocks. The reason the TSX is off 15% is, the CRB is off 17-18%. The last 3 major turns saw commodities tail off approximately 40%; between approx 1921-40, 1951-70, and 1981-‘00. This one should be similar for the CRB. For those as old as yours truly, the next few years will remind you of the early eighties. Even now, american rates will fall in half again. They remain the safe haven. Real rates will rise. No one will believe the above, they didn’t thirty some years ago either.
Housing down south (USA) is still not quite done losing value. This month is the beginning of 1.25 Million foreclosures that will spiral the market down a few more percentage points.
Combine this with the recent media headlines of US $1 TRILLION Student Loan Debt Bomb threatening the economy into another down turn as students who graduate can't find jobs to pay back their gigantic loans, and you're eventually looking at some flavour of a bailout requiring more QE3-like monitization that will further devalue the US dollar.
Is it a bad time to buy real estate in the USA, not really, but have we reached bottom yet? Give it 3 years or so. 2015 is what it is looking like at present. By then hopefuly the correction and over correction will be nearly complete.
Having said all this, at present, in some areas it can make some sense to buy multi-dwelling units to rent because the rental income exceeds the required mortgage payments, but there's always the currency risk. The Fed is hellbent on devaluing the dollar, housing be damned. When you have as much debt as the USA, one of the very few options left are to inflate your way out of the debt through massing $$ printing.
@Mindset
"share your analysis with us'
I thought I had done so.
I was trying to make the point that of property in Victoria, or anywhere for that matter, the higher the quality the better the long-run chance of appreciation in value.
There is potentially no shortage of townhouses and condominiums and ticky tacky boxes in more or less remote suburbs, which suggests that in a era of declining real incomes, the real price of such properties will not increase.
However, there is a restricted supply, by virtue of location, of property of interest to the 1% and, unlike the 99%, the 1% may enjoy increased real incomes in the years to come, which means that high-end property has the best chance of appreciating in value.
But, I agree, residential real estate in Victoria, does not seem the most promising investment. But as has been noted above, people buy homes primarily for enjoyment, not investment, although the financial implications need careful consideration.
@Mindset
"share your analysis with us'
I thought I had.
I was trying to make the point that of property in Victoria, or anywhere for that matter, the higher the quality the better the long-run chance of appreciation in value.
There is potentially no shortage of townhouses and condominiums and ticky tacky boxes in more or less remote suburbs, which suggests that in a era of declining real incomes, the real price of such properties will not increase.
However, there is a restricted supply (by virtue of location) of property of interest to the 1% and, unlike the 99%, the 1% may enjoy increased real income in the years to come, which means that high-end property has the best chance of appreciating in value.
housing bubbles
graphs you cannot deny and will give every reasonable person food for thought.
Marko - what about a 7500 sqft full waterview (Dallas Rd) lot?
R2 zoning?
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